Post on 27-Mar-2015
transcript
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School Portfolio Management
Attendance Boundary Adjustment Recommendations
December 12, 2007
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I. Coherent Governance Policy OE 12.5
II. Hillcrest
III. Middle School Boundaries
Appendix: Hillcrest Analysis
School Portfolio Management
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School Portfolio Management Framework
Coherent Governance Policy (Operational Expectation OE-12)• The Chief Executive Officer shall assure the availability of a diverse portfolio of high
quality schools (traditional, new small schools, charter schools, etc) for students and families both within neighborhoods and district-wide
• The Chief Executive Officer shall:
1. Assure that all district quality standards apply equally to all schools regardless of size and type
2. Regularly monitor all schools to assure their cost-effectiveness and compliance with quality standards
3. Assure the sustainability of all schools and programs, especially in a declining revenue environment
4. Create meaningful partnerships between district and charter schools that improve the conditions for both and that enhance choices for students and their families
5. Review school attendance boundaries annually to assure reasonable balance in student enrollment
• As per Board policy, this presentation specifically makes recommendations regarding Operational Expectation 12.5
• The adjustments presented herein are a recommendation to right size boundaries which will ensure families have access to neighborhood schools.
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Hillcrest: Solution for Overcrowding
Recommendation
1. Shrink attendance boundary to ensure that the number of neighborhood students more closely approximates the number of seats at Hillcrest
2. Cap kindergarten class at 40 students beginning in 2008 (NOTE: this does not necessarily mean classes of 20:1)
3. Cap 6th grade class at 20 students beginning in 2009 (IF there is not sufficient attrition to ensure that students current progressing through the school can fit. This will be reviewed annually)
Rationale*
• The number of students living in the current Hillcrest attendance area is increasing: Long-term enrollment trends and current neighborhood birth rates suggest there will be 50-60 neighborhood kindergartners living in the current attendance boundary for each of the next 5 years• The current facility can hold no more than 310 students. There is neither space nor funding to create additional capacity on site.• Eliminating the middle school was an option considered. However, doing so would still require a reduction in neighborhood demand for the school, as this alternative would result in an estimated school size of 340-360 students • Shrinking the boundary to reduce the number of neighborhood students, while also reducing the number of middle school students overtime is the most equitable solution to overcrowding• Siblings of current Hillcrest students living in the portions of the former attendance boundary now re-districted to Chabot and Montclair will be “grandfathered” for one year by receiving priority over other non-sibling neighborhood families (as long as there is space)
* More detailed analysis can be found in Appendix
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Hillcrest: Recommended Boundary Adjustment
Portion re-districted to CHABOT recommended to be drawn along:
• Broadway Terrace
Estimated number of Kindergarten students impacted: 5-15
Portion re-districted to MONTCLAIR recommended to be drawn along:
• Hilltop, Harbord, Sheridan
Estimated number of Kindergarten students impacted: 5-15
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Adjustment of Middle School Boundaries Recommendation
Right size attendance boundaries across the district as shown on the next page. These adjustments will result in the following estimated changes to residents within each boundary:
Boundaries Gaining Residents• Claremont (+187)• Simmons (+161)• Edna Brewer (+81)• Madison (+160)• Montera (+105)
Boundaries Losing Residents• Elmhurst (-160)• Bret Harte (-113)• Havenscourt (-154)• Roosevelt (-86)• Westlake (-187)
Rationale
• We believe that families should have access to neighborhood schools, as articulated in Board Policy 5116.
• Currently, many of the middle school attendance boundaries do not represent a number of residents equivalent to the school facilities capacities within their neighborhood. For example, Elmhurst and Havenscourt each have many more families living in their neighborhoods than there are seats at neighborhood schools. In contrast, Claremont and Calvin Simmons currently have many less students living in their neighborhood than there are seats at neighborhood schools
• In making these boundary adjustments, it is important to note that OUSD’s current options policy allows students to select any school across the city. With only an estimated 60% of students attending school within their neighborhood, we know that these attendance boundaries do not reflect the actual students attending each school. However it is important that we maintain a system within which families have the OPTION to attend their neighborhood school should they so desire
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Adjustment of Middle School Boundaries
[Insert picture of boundary changes with exact streets]
I 580
160 from Elm
hurst to Madison
76 from Havenscourt to Frick
73 from Frick to Bret Harte
105 from Brete Harte to M
ontera
81 from Bret Harte to Brewer
75 from Havenscourt to Sim
mons
86 from Roosevelt to Sim
mons
267 residents from W
estlake to North Oakland
EXPLORE
ELMHURST
MADISON
HAVENSCOURT
SIMMONS
ROOSEVELT
WESTLAKE
UV24
HWY 13
REDWOOD
MAIDEN
27TH
FR
UIT
VA
LE
29TH
E
G
A
84T
H
HIG
H
51ST
42ND
I 580
RICH
49TH
MAT
HER
HA
RV
AR
D
RAMONA
ST
RAT
FO
RD
SAN PABLO
RO
SE
")")
MONTERA
WEST OAKLAND
NORTH OAKLAND
BRET HARTE
EDNA M. BREWER
UV24
I 580
160 from Elm
hurst to Madison
76 from Havenscourt to Frick
73 from Frick to Bret Harte
105 from Brete Harte to M
ontera
81 from Bret Harte to Brewer
75 from Havenscourt to Sim
mons
86 from Roosevelt to Sim
mons
267 residents from W
estlake to North Oakland
EXPLORE
ELMHURST
MADISON
HAVENSCOURT
SIMMONS
ROOSEVELT
WESTLAKE
UV24
HWY 13
REDWOOD
MAIDEN
27TH
FR
UIT
VA
LE
29TH
E
G
A
84T
H
HIG
H
51ST
42ND
I 580
RICH
49TH
MAT
HER
HA
RV
AR
D
RAMONA
ST
RAT
FO
RD
SAN PABLO
RO
SE
")")
MONTERA
WEST OAKLAND
NORTH OAKLAND
BRET HARTE
EDNA M. BREWER
UV24
I 580
160 from Elm
hurst to Madison
76 from Havenscourt to Frick
73 from Frick to Bret Harte
105 from Brete Harte to M
ontera
81 from Bret Harte to Brewer
75 from Havenscourt to Sim
mons
86 from Roosevelt to Sim
mons
267 residents from W
estlake to North Oakland
EXPLORE
ELMHURST
MADISON
HAVENSCOURT
SIMMONS
ROOSEVELT
WESTLAKE
UV24
HWY 13
REDWOOD
MAIDEN
27TH
FR
UIT
VA
LE
29TH
E
G
A
84T
H
HIG
H
51ST
42ND
I 580
RICH
49TH
MAT
HER
HA
RV
AR
D
RAMONA
ST
RAT
FO
RD
SAN PABLO
RO
SE
")")
MONTERA
WEST OAKLAND
NORTH OAKLAND
BRET HARTE
EDNA M. BREWER
UV24
• The map below represents the recommended new middle school attendance boundaries (for example, the recommended new North Oakland boundary is BLUE)
• Regions with annotated streets represent the areas which are proposed to be moved
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Summary of Recommendations and Next Steps
Recommendation Schools Next Steps (IF recommendation is approved by the Board of Education)
Attendance Boundary Adjustment (2)
Hillcrest
Middle School Boundaries
• Coordination with student assignment office to ensure students are assigned through the options process using new attendance boundaries• Communication with families in impacted regions to support smooth transition
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Board of Education: Next Steps
Date Topic
December 19th • Board of Education decision regarding attendance boundary adjustments
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Appendix:Hillcrest Analysis
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Defining and Measuring Grade Progressions
• A grade progression measures the change in the number of students from one year to the next
•This year’s Kindergartners become next year’s first graders and the following year’s second graders and so on.
EXAMPLE: In 2004, 38 Hillcrest Kindergartners were enrolled. In 2005, 32 1st graders were enrolled.
• The K to 1st (K>1) grade progression between 2004 and 2005 was 84.2%
• 15.8% of the students left between K and 1st grade from 2004 to 2005
`
Start with today’s students by grade, then age them one grade
K
1
2
3
4
etc.
1
2
3
4
5
etc.
some students leave, othersenter
2004:38 2005:
32
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Factors Considered in for the Scenario Models
• The standard Grade Progression Model (also referred to as Attrition Rate Model) is used to forecast future Hillcrest enrollment
Several Grade Progressions (GP’s) were considered
•Using GP’s from a particular year
•Average GP’s from the last 2 years
•Average GP’s from the last 3 years
•Average GP’s from the last 5 years
•Maximum GP’s of the last 2, 3, 5 years
** Both OUSD and LRPC’s analysis indicate that grade progressions in recent years are significantly higher than in the past **
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LRPC Scenario 1 (Table S-4 in report)Scenario 1 presented by the LRPC assumes 40 future incoming K students with no change to the middle school. This scenario forecasts a slight increase of students until the year 2011, before reaching a steady state of the optimal 310 students
Challenges to Scenario:
•As the LRPC has noted, attrition rates have declined significantly in recent years. The attrition rates used in this model are lower than attrition rates that were actually experienced between 2006 and 2007
•Most notably, the LRPC is utilizing an average grade progression of 80.2% between 5th and 6th grade whereas the actual grade progression between 2006 and 2007 was 93.1%
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Scenario 2 presented by the LRPC assumes 40 future incoming K students with no change to the middle school. This model forecasts a continued increase in enrollment over the next 6 years
•The attrition rates used in this model are more realistic and more accurately reflect current attrition rates
Challenges to Scenario:
•Hillcrest school does not have the facilities capacity to house this number of students
LRPC Scenario 2 (Table S-5 in report)
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How Grade Progressions were Determined
Medium Scenario uses grade progressions we feel most accurately reflects what is currently happening at the school
•Average of the 2 highest grade progressions of the last 3 years
•From 5th to 6th grade, the higher grade progression from the 06>07 school year was used to account for a shift in the attrition rate from historical patterns
High Scenario
•Maximum grade progressions from the last three years for each grade
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Scenarios Considered
OUSD SCENARIO 1: Eliminate middle school (This scenario was not proposed by the LRPC. However as a district, we felt that it was very important to consider this alternative given that it was recommended by a number of pre-Kindergarten Hillcrest families)Advantages:
• Allows a greater number of Kindergartens in incoming classes
Challenges:
• Strong likelihood based on survey results that there will be at least 60 Kindergarten families within the current Hillcrest boundary
•Hillcrest facilities cannot sustain future incoming classes of 60 Kindergarteners
Medium Scenario with GP’s as discussed on Slide #5
High Scenario with Maximum GP’s of the last 3 years
345 projected students is significantly greater than Hillcrest’s facility capacity
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Scenarios Considered
OUSD SCENARIO 2: Cap at 40 Kindergarteners with no change to middle schoolAdvantages:
•Programmatically, the scenario would preserve the community’s commitment to preserving a K-8 option for families
Challenges:
• Based on even a relatively conservative prediction of future grade progressions, this solution does not fully solve the challenges of overcrowding
• With the uncertainty of future grade progressions, it’s very possible that this solution would not at all solve the situation
Medium Scenario with GP’s as discussed on Slide #5
High Scenario with Maximum GP’s of the last 3 years
355 projected students is significantly greater than Hillcrest’s facility capacity
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Scenarios ConsideredOUSD SCENARIO 3: • Reduce cohort of neighborhood students by shrinking boundary
• Cap Kindergarten at 40
• Annually review attrition rates and cap Middle School at 20 if current grade progressions continue*
Challenges: •Enrollment will still be over the facilities capacity of 310 for the next three years
Advantages:•As requested by the LRPC, model utilizes a more realistic attrition rate for projecting student population.
•Reduces some overcrowding while preserving the community’s commitment to a K-8 optionMedium Scenario with GP’s as discussed on
Slide #5High Scenario with Maximum GP’s of the last 3
years
* Beginning in 2009, all 5th grade Hillcrest students must fill out an Options form. Middle school seats will be drawn through a lottery process
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Recommendation
1. Shrink attendance boundary to reduce number of students living in boundary
• Approximately 5-15 kindergarteners will be redistricted to Chabot *
• Approximately 5-15 kindergarteners will be redistricted to Montclair *
**NOTE: These numbers are only estimates. Until OUSD has access to ALL specific resident information about incoming students gathered by the LRPC, we cannot make any assurances that these adjustments will fully reduce over demand for the 2008 kindergarten seats **
2. Cap Kindergarten at 40 students beginning in 2008
• This does NOT necessarily mean 2 classes of 20 K
3. Annually review attrition rates and cap Middle School at 20 if current grade progressions continue*
4. Adhere to published OUSD enrollment priorities and administrative regulations
* These figures may range according to new data presented
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OUSD Enrollment Priorities
• Enrollment Priorities
• Neighborhood students
• Sibling
• Non-neighborhood
• Program Improvement neighborhood
• Open Lottery
• Enrollment Dates
• December 7th, 8th: Options Fair
• 1/15/08: Options forms due
• 3/1/08: Placement letters mailed
• 3/2/08-Ongoing: Appeals window
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OUSD Enrollment Priorities
Priority Order
Current Hillcres
t Student
s
Live in New Hillcrest
Boundary
Live in Re-
districted portion
Never Lived at Hillcrest
Sibling Non-Sibling
1** Students are
GUARANTEED their
space at Hillcrest **
X
2 X X
3 ** Grandfathered for
08-09 only** X X
4 X X
5 X X
6 X X XOR
OUSD Enrollment Priorities
1) Current Hillcrest Student Population ** Students are GUARANTEED their space at Hillcrest. They do not participate in the options process **
2) Students living in the “New Hillcrest Boundary” with a sibling already attending Hillcrest
3) For the 2008-2009 school year only, “grandfathered” students who live in the previously defined Hillcrest boundary with a sibling already attending Hillcrest
4) Students living in the “New Hillcrest Boundary” without a sibling attending Hillcrest
5) Students who do not live in the Hillcrest boundary with a sibling already attending Hillcrest
6) Students who do not live in the Hillcrest boundary without a sibling already attending Hillcrest
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Questions Asked by the LRPC• What is the current OUSD policy concerning what happens to current Hillcrest students whose addresses are reallocated to alternative attendance areas?
•These students can continue at Hillcrest. If these students wish to select a new school, they will receive first priority at their new neighborhood school
•Is there a current OUSD policy concerning what happens to the siblings of existing Hillcrest students?
•Pursuant to AR (Administrative Regulation) 5116, when boundaries are changed, the Superintendent or designee will make every effort to keep siblings together, therefore “grandfathering” the neighborhood sibling priority based on space availability
•If younger siblings of existing Hillcrest students are grandfathered into the school despite their home addresses falling into a new alternative attendance area, does current or proposed policy dictate that they be given the same (or less) priority that new prospective Hillcrest students residing in the attendance area (who do not have siblings already at the school) when it comes to allocating kindergarten slots?
•Pursuant to AR 5116, during the 2008-2009 school year, students who reside in the re-districted portion with a sibling already attending Hillcrest will have priority over students who live in the Hillcrest neighborhood without siblings.
•Pursuant to AR 5116, after 2008-2009, students living in the Hillcrest neighborhood without siblings will be prioritized before students who reside in the re-districted portion with a sibling already attending Hillcrest.
• How will the middle school lottery occur for 2009?– If the natural attrition rate is less than the number of middle school seats
available, a lottery process will take place at the district according to the 2009 Board Options policies. Options policies will be reviewed annually and could be altered as a result of the review
• What happens if there is an extra seat in 7th grade as a result of 6th grade students not moving forward?
– Because of ongoing challenges with overcrowding, this space will not be refilled.• How will this information be communicated to Real Estate Agents?
- The options policy will be distributed and made available to the Oakland Realtor’s Association and broadcast in the Real Estate Association’s newsletter
- A meeting will be set up after the Options policies are distributed
Questions Asked by the LRPC
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Hillcrest: Impact on Neighboring Schools
Chabot: Number of Residents • In order to determine whether the number of neighborhood students are increasing, we examine the number of district residents
• A resident is defined as an OUSD student whose address falls within the Chabot boundary, regardless of where they attend school
•For example, if a student lives in the Chabot neighborhood but attends school at Peralta, they are counted as a Chabot resident
• The number of residents in the Chabot neighborhood increased most significantly between 2005 and 2006
• Though the number of residents increased slightly in the Chabot neighborhood, enrollment at the school decreased slightly
2006 Enrollment:
490
2007 Enrollment:
485
Grade 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
K 30 33 38 36 39 42 47 57 50 52 51 51 51 51 511st 28 28 31 38 33 35 36 46 60 51 52 52 52 52 522nd 27 25 27 32 35 31 33 32 36 50 42 44 43 43 433rd 30 23 21 29 26 33 29 29 31 33 46 39 40 40 404th 26 22 20 19 31 24 35 28 27 29 32 44 37 38 385th 15 24 23 17 18 31 25 34 27 26 28 31 43 36 37K-5 156 155 160 171 182 196 205 226 231 241 252 260 266 261 261
Chabot Resident Data
Chabot: Neighborhood/Non-Neighborhood Students • Chabot School has always had an excess number of seats available to non-neighborhood students
• 55% of students at Chabot come from outside the neighborhood
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Chabot: Possible impact on incoming Kindergarten class • In 2007, 36% of the Kindergarten class came from outside the neighborhood
• With approximately 13 new Hillcrest K students, 16% of the seats will be available for non-neighborhood students
Anticipated Change in K with Hillcrest Families
26
12
47
61
010203040506070
Currrent K Split New K Split (with additionalHillcrest families)
Non-Neighborhood Neighborhood
Neighborhood going outside for
school:
14 Students
Neighborhood students attending
School:
217 Students
Number of OUSD elementary school students living in the Chabot Neighborhood: 231
Students from other
neighborhoods:
268 Students
Chabot 2007-2008: Where Students Live and Go to School
94% of students who live in the neighborhood attend school in the neighborhood
Number of non SDC students attending Chabot: 485Emerson 32Outside Oakland Addresses 20Piedmont Avenue 19Lakeview 16Hillcrest 15Glenview 11Howard 10Lafayette 9Peralta 9Santa Fe 9Sequoia 7Martin Luther King Jr 7Franklin 6Carl Munck 6REACH Academy 6Cleveland 5Highland 5Maxwell Park 5Montclair 5Henry J. Kaiser 5Marshall 5Burckhalter 4Laurel 4Sobrante Park 4Hoover 4Addresses With Invalid Formats 4Garfield 3Manzanita 3Joaquin Miller 3Stonehurst 3Webster Academy 3Bella Vista 2Fruitvale 2Grass Valley 2Jefferson 2Lincoln 2Allendale 1Crocker Highlands 1La Escuelita 1Lazear Elementary 1Lockwood 1Markham 1Melrose 1Prescott 1Redwood Heights 1Thornhill 1Cesar Chavez Learning Center 1Total 268
Hillcrest 6Peralta 6Piedmont Avenue 1Bella Vista 1Total 14
Chabot: Projected Enrollment
• Chabot’s facilities are currently being used at capacity.
• Chabot is projected to be able to accommodate the increased number of residents, with fewer available seats for non-neighborhood students.
• In 2007, 45% of Chabot’s students come from within the neighborhood. Over the next five years, enrollment is projected to shift to a mix of 67% neighborhood, because of:
– Higher grade progressions for neighborhood students
– Smaller incoming non-neighborhood K class and fewer non-neighborhood students progressing through the grades
Chabot: Projected Enrollment 2006-2013
268279 256231
205179
157 148
330314298
273251
226211 217
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
En
ro
llm
en
t
Non-Neighborhood Neighborhood
Montclair: Number of Residents • In order to determine whether the number of neighborhood students are increasing, we examine the number of district residents
• A resident is defined as an OUSD student whose address falls within the Montclair boundary, regardless of where they attend school
•For example, if a student lives in the Montclair neighborhood but attends school at Joaquin Miller, they are counted as a Montclair resident
• The number of residents in the Montclair neighborhood have increased in the last two years
• In 2007, the number of Montclair residents increased, but the enrollment at the school remained relatively constant, leaving fewer seats for non-neighborhood students
2006 Enrollment:
345
2007 Enrollment:
350
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GradeK 34 43 33 41 38 40 53 51 53 54 54 54 54 54
1st 33 34 37 31 43 36 39 56 52 54 55 55 55 552nd 34 31 40 39 31 42 33 35 58 49 51 52 52 523rd 40 35 30 38 38 26 35 34 33 54 46 48 49 494th 45 36 33 30 41 39 27 37 33 34 55 47 49 505th 30 41 30 31 31 40 33 24 37 30 31 51 43 45K-5 216 220 203 210 222 223 220 237 268 275 293 307 302 304
Montclair K-5 Residents
Montclair: Neighborhood/Non-Neighborhood Students In the last few years, Montclair School has had an excess number of seats available to non-neighborhood students
• In 2007, the number of non-neighborhood students increased, leaving fewer seats for non-neighborhood students
Neighborhood going outside for
school:
39 Students
Neighborhood students attending
School:
229 Students
Number of OUSD elementary school students living in the Montclair Neighborhood: 268
Students from other
neighborhoods:
121 Students
Montclair 2007-2008: Where Students Live and Go to School
85% of students who live in the neighborhood attend school in the neighborhood
Number of non SDC students attending Montclair: 350Glenview 17Joaquin Miller 12Laurel 8Thornhill 7Burckhalter 6Maxwell Park 5Sequoia 5Invalid Addresses 5Emerson 4Fruitvale 4Redwood Heights 4Santa Fe 4Carl Munck 4Allendale 3Manzanita 3Markham 3Outside Oakland Addresses3Cleveland 2Jefferson 2Horace Mann 2Peralta 2Stonehurst 2Webster Academy 2Bella Vista 1Franklin 1Garfield 1Grass Valley 1Hillcrest 1Lakeview 1Lincoln 1Parker 1Sobrante Park 1Whittier 1Howard 1REACH Academy 1Total 121
Joaquin Miller 9Thornhill 9Hillcrest 7Chabot 5Redwood Heights 2Bella Vista 1Fruitvale 1Glenview 1Laurel 1Piedmont Avenue 1Henry J. Kaiser 1Tilden Elementary 1Total 39
Montclair: Number of Residents vs. Facilities Capacity• Montclair’s facility can hold approximately 350 students
• Based on the current Montclair attendance boundary, even if every neighborhood student chose to attend the school, there would be approximately 50 additional seats available for non-neighborhood students
• Currently, only 85% of neighborhood families are choosing to attend the school. This suggests that there would be more than these 50 seats available for non-neighborhood students
275 293 307 302 304
75 57 43 48 46
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Residents Non-Residents
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Montclair: Possible impact on incoming Kindergarten class • In 2007, approximately 18% of the Kindergarten class came from outside the neighborhood
• With approximately 7 new Hillcrest K students, 10% of the seats will be available for non-neighborhood students
*
* The school could take 60 kindergartners next year, an increase of three students over this year’s current class
Montclair: Projected Enrollment
• Montclair’s facilities are currently being used at capacity.
• Montclair is projected to be able to accommodate the increased number of residents, with fewer available seats for non-neighborhood students.
• In 2007, 65% of Montclair’s students come from outside the neighborhood. Over the next five years, enrollment is projected to shift to a mix of 87% neighborhood, 13% non-neighborhood because of:
– Higher grade progressions for neighborhood students
– Smaller incoming non-neighborhood K class and fewer non-neighborhood students progressing through the grades