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© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Autonomous Air Traffic Management Autonomous Air Traffic Management System (AATMS):System (AATMS):
The Management and Design of an The Management and Design of an Affordable Ground-Based Air Traffic Affordable Ground-Based Air Traffic
Management SystemManagement System
Student Team MembersKenneth H. McKneely Jr.
Abdulaziz FaghiPirooz Javan
Keegan E. JohnsonKhang L. Nguyen
April 26, 2002
Corporate Sponsor
Ms. Lori Delorenzo
CACI Technologies, Inc.
Faculty Advisor
George L. Donohue, PhD.
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Briefing OutlineBriefing Outline Problem Statement Operational Concept Design Approach Decision and Cost
Analysis
Physical Architecture Simulations Conclusion
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Problem StatementProblem Statement
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
MotivationMotivation Key Design Question: Can we provide equivalent
Tower Safety at a lower cost? Performance Objective
– Increase Aircraft Arrivals per hour from 3 to a maximum of 15 per hour in Lower Landing Minimum
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Operational ConceptOperational Concept AATMS Services
– Provide same capabilities as Low Density FAA Manned Tower Surveillance Separation Communications Flight Planning and Weather Information
– Remote Maintenance Monitoring Worst Case Weather Conditions
– Cloud Ceiling: 450 feet– Horizontal Visibility: 1 statute mile
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Initial Observations and Initial Observations and ConstraintsConstraints
Target Market approximately 750 airports– Small airports do not have large budgets
Technology exists, but no real integration of this type of system Meet a High Operational Availability Provide services for minimally equipped aircraft
– Air Traffic Control Radar Beacon System (ATCRBS) transponder with encoding altimeter
– Two independent radio navigation systems– Global Positioning System/Wide Area Augmentation System (GPS/WAAS)
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Design ApproachDesign Approach Two Basic Design Alternatives:
– Decisions made by Pilot/Avionics: Responsibility for execution of maneuvers is left to the pilot (e.g., missed approach).
– Decisions made by AATMS : AATMS monitors airspace and provides instructions to pilots.
Provide two hardware configurations– Minimum Availability (Min AO): Meets minimum availability requirements for
FAA certification– Maximum Availability (Max AO): Provide component redundancy and diversity
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Design ApproachDesign Approach
Architecture/ Design
Pilot Decision Making
AATMS Decision Making
Min AO Reject Design Accept Design
Max AO Reject Design Accept Design
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Max AMax AOO Physical Architecture Physical Architecture
100 Base-T Router/LAN
Multilateration ADS-B
VDL-4 VHF Voice
Focal Plane(IR) Array
AWOS/DUATS
RemoteMaintenanceMonitoring
Weather/Runway
Weather/Runway
Planning Planning
UPS
VoiceSynthesizer
PrimaryRadar
(Network Servers)
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Decision and Cost AnalysisDecision and Cost Analysis
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Cost ApproachCost Approach Used Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis Techniques for component
selection decisions Cost Breakdown Structure (CBS)
– Means to Collect/Track Cost Data Assumptions for Operations Costs
– Computed for 7 years (Time between Technology Refresh)– Operations Costs
Tower: Staffed by 15 people @ $120,000/yr each AATMS: Utilities ~ $24000/yr
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Decision Sensitivity AnalysisDecision Sensitivity Analysis
0.0000.1000.2000.3000.4000.5000.6000.7000.8000.9001.000
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
JRC JMA 2254
SI-TEX T-295 SI-TEX 1140-4
Raymarine 9SFuruno 1933C NAVNET
Weight of Purchase Price (PP)
Dec
isio
n V
alue
Primary Radar Decision Sensitivity to Weight of Purchase Price (PP)
Actual Weight of Purchase Price (PP)
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Cost ComparisonCost Comparison
$0$500,000
$1,000,000$1,500,000$2,000,000$2,500,000$3,000,000$3,500,000$4,000,000$4,500,000$5,000,000
Maximum Ao Minimum Ao ATCT
OperationsMaintenanceAcquisition
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
SimulationsSimulations
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
ApproachApproach Developed Two Simulations to evaluate AATMS performance
– Overall System Reliability– System Operational Performance
Reliability Simulation based on data obtained from Aviation Standards Body for FAA (Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics, Inc.)
Operational Simulation used to compute data on number of aircraft events
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Reliability ResultsReliability ResultsReliability:
– All reliability data is end-to-end– Predicted for 0.99798 – Monte Carlo Simulation resulted in 0.99945
over 20 years
PowerGroup
(0.99999)
SurveillanceGroup(0.999)
CommsGroup
(0.99999)
NetworkGroup(0.999)
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Airport GeometryAirport Geometry
4500 ft.
8 mi (42240 ft.)
Meter Point A
10.26
mi (5
4180
ft.)
6 mi (31680 ft.)
8 mi (42240 ft.)
Meter Point B
10.26 mi (54180 ft.)
r
Meter Point A
Meter Point B
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Operational Simulation Operational Simulation ParametersParameters
Arriving Aircraft Speeds: 90 and 120 knots Gaussian Distribution for Aircraft Interarrival Times
– Mean (): 4, 5, and 6 minutes– Standard Deviation () : 20 seconds
Repositioning event = aircraft Standard Rate Turn– 360o turn = 2 minutes
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Operational ResultsOperational Results
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0 - .5
1.1 - 1
.5
2.1 - 2
.5
3.1 - 3
.5
4.1 - 4
.5
5.1 - 5
.5
6.1 - 6
.5
7.1 - 7
.5
8.1 - 8
.5
9.1 - 9
.5
10 Arrivals/hour
12 Arrivals/hour
15 Arrivals/hour
Separation Distance Intervals (nm)
Inst
ance
s (x1
000)
ove
r 30
day
s
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
Total Reposition EventsTotal Reposition EventsN
umbe
r of
Occ
urre
nces
ove
r 30
day
s
0
4055
2597
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
6 8 10 12 14Arrivals Per Hour
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team
ConclusionConclusion The AATMS Max AO architecture can safely and reliably
handle 12 aircraft arrivals per hour The investment to provide this capability is 62% less than
the cost to construct/operate/maintain a Low Density FAA Manned Control Tower.
YES! We can provide equivalent Tower Safety at a lower cost.
“Luck is the residue of good design.” – Bobby Jones
© 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team