© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 1 5 th Annual Caribbean Internet Forum 5 - 7 November 2007 St....

transcript

5th Annual Caribbean Internet Forum5 - 7 November 2007 St. Lucia

Caribbean InfrastructureInvestment in the

Fiberoptic Submarine Cable Sector

Thomas A. Soja, President

T Soja & Associates, Inc.Boston, MA USAwww.tsoja.com

Agenda

• The “Old” Network vs. the “New” Network

• Bandwidth Demand Growth Drivers

• Market Connectivity & Systems Supply

– Activities in the BRICs, OECDs and ACPs

• Caribbean Projects

– Recent investments and announcements

Older Cable InfrastructureUnable to Support Broadband-Driven Future

Circa 2002

Courtesy: AT&T

Growth Drivers

• Competition

• Technology

– Fixed line

– Broadband

• DSL, HFC, Fiber

– Wireless

• Free Space Optics, WiFi, WiMAX

– Mobile

• Voice, increasingly broadband data capable

Caribbean Teledensities

Fixedensity

Mobidensity

Overall Average

Adjusted Average Source: www.ipoaa.com/caribbean and CIA World Fact Book

Caribbean Mobile Subscriber Growth

Informa: Mobile and WirelessOpportunities in the Caribbean– 3rd edition

Households, Businesses, Mobile Teledensity in the Caribbean

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Caribbean Population

Mobile Subscribers in the Caribbean

Households

Carib. Pop. Mod

~2 million Internet Households ~400,000 businesses

~5 million Internet HH

( millions)

The Promise of Wireless / Mobile Broadband

85 kbps

1,000 kbps

10,000 kbps

100,000 kbps

1 kbps

10 kbps

100 kbps

1,000 kbps

10,000 kbps

100,000 kbps

1,000,000 kbps

2.5G 3G WiMax / EV-DO A, B 4G

Peak Download Speed

Mobile Subscribers, Penetration and Mobile Broadband in the Caribbean

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Caribbean Population

Mobile Subscribers in the Caribbean

Carib. Pop. Mod

BB Mobile Users

( millions)

Implication for Upstream Capacity

2.6 Gbps 54 Gbps 1,000 Gbps

12,600 Gbps

0 Gbps

2,000 Gbps

4,000 Gbps

6,000 Gbps

8,000 Gbps

10,000 Gbps

12,000 Gbps

14,000 Gbps

2007 2010 2015 2020

Caribbean Backbone Bandwidth

Caribbean Competitiveness• Global positioning

• BRICs vs. OECD vs. ACPs

• ICs– Multiple high-capacity cables in queue

• Africa– Multiple initiatives under development

• Pacific Islands– Long-thin routes being addressed

• Caribbean– Recent developments timed just right

Recent Investment

• Cable Networks– GCN 2006– Antilles Crossing 2006– Fibralink 2006– MCN/SCF 2007– Trinidad-Curacao 2007

• Approximate CapEx:

US$100-150 million

GCN-1 (RFS Jan-2006)

Antilles Crossing Phase 1 (RFS Mar-2006)

FibraLink (RFS Mar 2006)

MCN (RFS Feb 2007)

SCF (RFS June 2007)

Prospective Investment

• Cable Networks– CFX-1 2008– SAm-1 ext. 2008– Transbit (Venezuela-Cuba) 2009

• Approximate CapEx:

US$100-150 million

CFX-1 and Trinidad ExtensionCFX-1

• Announced May 2007• RFS Q2 2008• 2,400 rt-km

Curacao-Trinidad• Announced 2006• RFS Q4 2007• 1,000 rt-km

Transbit Cable (Venezuela-Cuba)

• Announced Sept 2007• RFS 2009• 1,552 rt-km• 160 Gbps capacity

SAm-1 Extension (Puerto Rico-Colombia)

• Announced 2007• RFS 2010 (est.)• 1,400 rt-km• Permitting stage

Antilles Crossing Phase 2

Multiple Ring Resilient Infrastructure

Other announced systems

Conclusions

• Real progress over past 5 years

• Timing took advantage of lull in systems supply

• More systems about to be built

• Local access shows viable path to dramatic

improvement

• Scale needed – apps, content & customers

• Still more to come

T Soja & Associates, Inc.tsoja@tsoja.com

+1 617 787-0100 (tel)

+1 617 283-7362 (mob)

2 November 2006

Thank you !

5th Annual Caribbean Internet Forum5 - 7 November 2007 St. Lucia

© 2007 T Soja & Associates, Inc. 1 5 th Annual Caribbean Internet Forum 5 - 7 November 2007 St....

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