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Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day
The
global d
care
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Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 M
Capital markets expect diabetes care to contin
outgrow the general pharmaceutical industryGrowth in global pr
escription sale
s versus di
abetes care sales (CAG
Source: EvaluatePharma, data retrieved January 21, 2011
Diabetes Care salesTotal Prescription sales
2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015
Insulin and GLP-1 sales
10.7%12.3%
18.4%
6.4%
12.0%
15.9%
3.6%
7.8%
9
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Diabetes market development
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Global diabetes care marketby treatment class
Global insulin mby segment
Note: *in DKK. Monthly MAT, volume figuresSource: IMS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Feb
2006
Long acting
Premix
Fast acting
CAGR volume: 7.1%CAGR value*: 14.3%
tMU
34%
35%
31%
Note: Monthly MAT, value figuresSource: IMS
OAD Insulin GLP-1
Feb
2006Feb
2011
DKK
billion
Total market:CAGR 11.4%
CAGR 7.8%
CAGR 14.3%
Injectables:CAGR 15.6%
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Sustained double-digit insulin market growth
Global insulin market growth2006-2011
The fundamental growof the insulin m
Volume
Prevalence of diabetes
Diagnosis rates and treatment
Intensification of insulin regime
Growing BMI
Life-length
Value
Conversion to new generations
Device penetration
Price changes
Source: IMS, Monthly MAT, value figures
0
20
40
60
80
100
MAT Feb 2006 Volume
contribution
Mix/price
contribution
MAT Feb 2011
44.4
bDKK86.7
bDKK
DKK
billion
21.6
bDKK
20.7
bDKK
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Globally, diabetes has become an epidemic -
d
lifestyle changes and demographicsDiagnosis and optima
remains a challenge
the
All peoplewithdiabetes
50% arediagnosed
50% haveaccess to care
50% get
Source: International Diabetes Foundation: Diabetes Atlas, 2000 and 2009Note: Data covers the 20-79 age-group. IO: International Operations, Japan includes Korea
Estimated number of people with diabetes
projections appear conservative
JP, Korea
Europe
N. America0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000 2010 2030
151
285
439
Millionpeople
InternationalOperations
China
Japan
Europe
North
America
CAGR:6.6%
CAGR:
2.2%
//
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The world is growing unhealthier
Prevalence of overweight and obesity in selected countries
Adapted from: Sassi, F. et al. 2009 The Obesity Epidemic: Analysis of Past and Projected Future Trends in SelectedOECD Countries, OECD Health Working Papers, No. 45, OECD Publishing. Available at:http://www.ecoclimax.com/2010/10/past-and-projected-future-overweight.html
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Proportionofoverw
eightandobese
ofpopulation(%)
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Life expectancy
has on
average
risen by 4 mon
year
since
1970
Source: www.nationmaster.com, CIA world fact book
Life expectancy at birth (weighted average)
1970 2010
69 years
56 years
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Life expectancy
has on
average
risen by 4 mon
year
since
1970
Source: www.nationmaster.com, CIA world fact book
Life expectancy at birth (weighted average)
69 years
56 years
82 years?
1970 2010 2050
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Implied
development
in insulin consumption
Insulin co
nsumption i
n selected
countries
a
verage
insulin units pe
Sources: Calculation based on IMS volume figures and United Nations Population Division demography data
2000 2010
238
165
264
53
1
349
293
426
99
United
States Germany United
Kingdom ChinaJapan
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Modern insulin is replacing human insulin
as
insulin replaced animal insulin
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Share of totalinsulin volume
Source: IMS, annual volume figures
Modern
Human insulin
Animal
insulin
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Modern insulin constitute more than 80% of th
insulin value marketShare of totalinsulin value
Source: IMS, monthly MAT value figures
Modern
Human insulin
Animal
insulin0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20
Modern
Human insulin
Animal
insulin
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Two-thirds of insulin volume is injected via a m
pen device
Source: IMS, annual volume figures
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Share of totalinsulin volume
Prefill
Durable device
Vial
and syringe
N N di k C it l M k t D 5 M
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Characteristics of the insulin industry
Chronic
disease leading to life-long patient-drug relationship
Significant and
growing patient population
Continuous upgrade
of insulin treatment
Significant usage ofmodern pen devices
Strong brand loyalty and
limited switching
between therapies
Many prescribers requiring significant commercial operations
High volume production with significant capital investment required
Limited abbreviated regulatory pathways
for approval of biosimilar insul
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Novo Nordisk device development for improve
treatment1923 -
1985 1985 -
2010
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Diabetes is chronic disease leading to long pat
relationshipInsulin treatment is ge
nerally char
acterised by strong brand loyaland limited sw
itching betwee
n therapies
54 years Average
life
expectancy
with
type 2diabetes
Diagnosis
of
type 2 diabetes
OAD treatment
Insulintreatment
8 years
12 years 74 years
Sources: Calvert MJ, McManus RJ, Freemantle N (2007) Management of type 2 diabetes with multiple oral hypoglycaemic agents or insulin in retrospective cohort study Br J Gen Pract 57: 455-60. The British Journal of Diabetes & Vascular Disease 2008 8:92. 2005 -2008 National HeaNutrition Examination Survey. http://www.newsobserver.com/2011/03/03/1025677/type-2-diabetes-linked-to-shorter.html#storylink=misearexpectancy in Individuals with type 2 Diabetes, Diabetes (2007); 56: (supp1): A596
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Novo Nordisk has significant operations across
world to remain competitive
China: ~2,100 F
Japan & Korea: ~900 F
International Operations: ~2,700 FTEs
North America: ~4,000 FTEs Europe: ~3,100 FTEs
FTEs represent full-time employee equivalents in Novo Nordisks sales regions (excludes a.o. employees in headquarter and manufacturing)
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Insulin manufacturing process
Fermentation Recovery Purification Formulation Filling Assembly
API: insulin crystals F&F: liquid form Device & p
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Novo Nordisks global manufacturing setup
Montes Claros
ClaytonChartres
Denmark
Tianjin
Device manufacturing
Packaging
Filling plant project
Formulation & filling
Assembly
Packaging
Formulation & filling
Assembly
Packaging
Formulation & filling
Assembly
Packaging
API production
Formulation & filling
Assembly
Packaging
Device & needle manufacturing
Packag
Koriyama
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p y
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Novo Nordisk has sustained
a global insulin m
leadership
position
Insulin value market share
worldwideInsulin volume mar
worldwide
Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Feb
2006Feb
2011Feb
2006
Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Others
44%
33%
22%
1%
Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis
Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
through
focus
on
improvements
for patients
Modern insulin global volumemarket share
Prefilled device globvolume market
Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures
0%
10%
20%
30%
Feb
2006Feb
2011Feb
2006
Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Others
46%
34%
19%
1%
FlexPen SoloStar
Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures
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with
a strong
portfolio
of
modern
insulins
Strong current portfolioNovo Nordisks modern i
insulin volume mar
0%
10%
20%
Feb
2006
NovoMix NovoRapid
Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures
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0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Novo Nordisk is now also expanding into earlie
treatment and growing the GLP-1 classVictoza
is driving the expansion ofthe global GLP-1 market
North America constitutesthe GLP-1 value m
Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures (DKK)
GLP-1 sales in bDKK
(right axis)
Diabetesmarket
share(value)
Feb
2006Feb
2011
26%
72
*Annual value of diabetes market MAT February 2011Source: IMS, Monthly value data (DKK)
DKK
billion
Europe
Rest of
world
Victoza
exenatide
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The
diabe
marketinSVP Re
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The diabetes challenge
Treatment of diabetes today
Victoza
performance
Insulin market performance
Focus areas and priorities
Outline
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2010: ~32 million
6-7% 10-11% 12-13%
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Sources: CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; Narayan, Impact of Recent Increase in Incidence on Future Diabetes Burden, Diabe2006;29:2114-2116; CDC, 2010 National Diabetes Fact Sheet; Boyle, Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult populathttp://www.pophealthmetrics.com/content/8/1/29; Institute for Alternative Futures projections
64 bUSD
537 bUSD27 bUSD
46 bUSD
30 bUSD
36 bUSD
2010: 299 bUSD
Total annual direct medical and indirect societal costs of diabetes (billio
2015: 374 bUSD 2025
1-2.9b 5-9.9b
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Note: Insulin data include treatment with concomitant non-insulin productsSource: IMS LRx Monthly Regime, 12/10 PROJECTED to Mattson Jack, NHANES IV and Ropers 2010
Treatment of diabetes in the US today
Diet & Exercise11%
OAD -
Met/SU/TZD
55%
Incretin10%
Insulin24%
Share of patients by treatment class
Basal-only40%
Basal-Bolus29%
Premix-only14%
Rapid-only14%
GLP-1 -
20%
DPP-4s80%
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In the US, the insulin market is outgrowing the
diabetes care market
Note: Monthly MAT, value figuresSource: IMS
US diabetes care market by treatment class US insulin volume marke
Note: * in DKK. Monthly MAT, volume figuresSource: IMS
DKKbillion
tMU
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
OAD Insulin GLP-1
Feb
2006Feb
2011
Total market:CAGR 12.0%
CAGR 5.6%
CAGR 18.9%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Feb
2006
Long acting
Premix
Fast acting
CAGR volume: 5
CAGR value*: 18
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Victoza
continues to drive GLP-1 growth
Expansion of the GLP-1 market
Source: IMS, NPA Monthly data; IMS LRx Weekly Data
Victoza
source of pa
0
1
2
3
4
5
Nave
Metformin
SU
met
Insulin
TZD
metDPP-IV
exenatide
Mar
2010
Note: Nave is defined as all patients who have not filled a prescSource: IMS, NPA Monthly data; IMS LRx 4 week average NaiveScript Counts
Number
of
patients(thousands)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Mar
2010Mar
2011
GLP-1 % of of
diabetes market value(right axis)
GLP-1 TRx
scripts(thousands)
Victoza
exenatide
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Volume growth and value upgrade drive insuli
value expansionUS insulin value market growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
February 2006 Volume growth Mix/price
growth
February 2011
DKKbillion
9.0
bDKK
18.5bDKK
Note: Monthly MAT, value figuresSource: IMS
19.9
bDKK
47.4
bDKK
Value upgrade
Note: Monthly MAT, volume figuresSource: IMS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Penetration oftotal market
Feb
2006
Device penetration
Modern insulin penetratio
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Novo Nordisk has increased overall insulin ma
share in the US
Note: Monthly MAT, value figures (DKK)Source: IMS
US total insulin value ma
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Feb
2006
Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Av
US total insulin volume market share
Note: Monthly MAT, volume figuresSource: IMS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Feb
2006
42%
32%
26%
Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly
Feb
2011
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Novo Nordisk has increased modern insulin ma
share in the USUS modern insulin volume market share US modern insulin value m
Note: Monthly MAT, value figures (DKK)Source: IMS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Feb
2006
Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Avent
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Feb
2006
Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly
37%
44%
19%
Note: Monthly MAT, volume figuresSource: IMS
Feb
2011
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Insulin market shares and dynamics
US total insulin market shares by segment
Source: IMS, Monthly MAT volume figures
Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly Conversion rate to modern i
Insu
linmarketshare(v
olume)
Short acting segment Premix segment Long
Feb
2006Feb
2011Feb
2006Feb
2011Feb
2006
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Focus
areas
for the
US
Expand Victoza
prescribing base and access
Continue modern insulin strategy of value creation by balancingprofitability and access
Preparing for a successful launch of Degludec and DegludecPlus
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Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day
The diabe
market
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China is evolving as the worlds #3 pharma
m
20
19
18
1716
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Netherlands
Poland
Greece
TurkeyAustralia
Mexico
Venezuela
South Korea
India
Russia
Canada
United Kingdom
Brazil
Spain
Italy
France
Germany
China
Japan
United States
2011 Rank
20
19
18
1716
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1 United StatesUnited States1
VenezuelaTurkey12
RussiaRussia11
United KingdomCanada10
CanadaBrazil9
BrazilUnited Kingdom8
SpainSpain7
ItalyItaly6
FranceChina5
TurkeySouth Korea15
South KoreaMexico14
IndiaIndia13
GermanyGermany4
ChinaFrance3
AustraliaGreece17MexicoAustralia16
JapanJapan2
BelgiumPoland20
PolandNetherlands19
GreeceVenezuela18
2013 Rank2009 Rank
20
19
18
1716
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Netherlands
Poland
Greece
TurkeyAustralia
Mexico
Venezuela
South Korea
India
Russia
Canada
United Kingdom
Brazil
Spain
Italy
France
Germany
China
Japan
United States
2011 Rank
20
19
18
1716
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1 United StatesUnited States1
VenezuelaTurkey12
RussiaRussia11
United KingdomCanada10
CanadaBrazil9
BrazilUnited Kingdom8
SpainSpain7
ItalyItaly6
FranceChina5
TurkeySouth Korea15
South KoreaMexico14
IndiaIndia13
GermanyGermany4
ChinaFrance3
AustraliaGreece17MexicoAustralia16
JapanJapan2
BelgiumPoland20
PolandNetherlands19
GreeceVenezuela18
2013 Rank2009 Rank
Source: IMS Health MIDAS, Market Prognosis October 2009. Market size ranking in constant USD
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This growth has been driven by five major fact
Source: IMS RDPAC presentation March 2011
Chinas pharmaceutical market is estimated to grow 20% per annum 20
Robust economic growth World #2 economy in 2010
8% GDP growth for the next 5 years (government
Ageing population 2006-2010: +46 million >50 years old
2010-2020: +180 million more
Increasing incidence of chronic diseases Latest study estimates 92 million people with diab Obese population tripled from 2002 to 2010
Sweeping healthcare reforms Broaden coverage and benefits
Strengthen primary care and rural healthcare serv
Improve disease prevention and early diagnosis
Increased investment from all players Increasing M&A activity
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 M
S bstantial g o th in diabetes p e alence e p
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Substantial growth in diabetes prevalence exp
the BRIC countries
8 10
51
44
13 10
87
64
0
20
40
60
80
100
Brazil Russia India China
2010
2030
Driven by prevalence growthin the BRIC countries
Millionpeople
Source: International Diabetes Foundation: Diabetes Atlas, 2000 and 2009Note: Data covers the 20-79 age-group. IO: International Operations, Japan includes Korea
Diagnosis, treatment interegional difference remains
0
20
40
60
80
100
People with
diabetes
Diagnosed
diabetics
Tre
diab
% of peoplewith diabetes
2430%
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Changing Diabetes in China
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Changing Diabetes
in China
-increasing awareness and diagnosis
Insulin Patient Self-management Guideline, CDS-NN
Changing Diabetes
bus: 3 years, 61 cities, 46,000 patients and ~200 media re
12 more cities will be covered in 2011 Diabetes knowledge websites
for both patients and physicians
GDM program: 3-year, World Diabetes Foundation-Ministry of Health-Novo Nordi
Establish 45 centres, train 4,725 physicians and screen 292,500
women
Localised Barometer
Programme
Diabetes Care Campaign:
Covered 90 hospitals + 200 CHC, 45,952 patients screened, 1,690
physicia
Social Network for Endocrinologists
in China & Medical Information Website: la
Leadership
foras
NNDU
NovoCare
serving
more than
600,000 members
since
2011
Provide comprehensive diabetes knowledge for patients and organise a vari
24-hour hotline service -
>9000 calls per month Patients follow-up calls to ensure successful insulin initiation -
>66,000 calls
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 M
Novo Nordisk is the company with the largest
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Novo Nordisk is the company with the largest
diabetes care in China
Branch Office
Frontiers
Li
Tia
Beijing
Hebei
Shanxi
Shando
Jiang
Zh
Fujian
JiangxiHunan
Guangxi
Anhui
HenanShanxi
Hubei
Xinjiang Gansu
Sichuan
Tibet
Qinghai
Inner Mongolia
Yunnan
Guizhou
Chongqing
Ningxia
Hainan
Guangdong
Guangzh
Wuhan
Hong
A total of 3,375 employees across
Commercial operations in China
Manufacturing
R&D
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 M
The Chinese insulin market is expanding signif
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The Chinese insulin market is expanding signif
predominately driven by the premix segment
1
2
3
4
5
6
Chinese diabetes care marketby treatment class by value Chinese insulin market
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Feb
2006
Lon
P
Fas
CAGR volume: 26.8%CAGR value*: 38.8%
tMU
14%
53%
33%
OAD Insulin GLP-1
Feb
2006Feb
2011
DKK
billion
Total market:CAGR 32.4%
CAGR 27.8%
CAGR 38.8%
Note: *in DKK. Monthly MAT, volume figures. IMS projects thmarket based on hospital data from 14% of Chinese hospitalSource: IMS
Note: Monthly MAT, value figures. IMS projects the Chinesemarket based on hospital data from 14% of Chinese hospitalsSource: IMS
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Novo Nordisk is leading the total diabetes mar
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Novo Nordisk is leading the total diabetes marChina
Total diabetes care valuemarket shares Total insulin volume m
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Feb
2006
37%
9%
6%
Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis Eli Lilly
Feb
2011
15%
4%
Bayer-Schering Bristol Myers-Squibb
Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures. IMS projects the Chinesemarket based on hospital data from 14% of Chinese hospitals
Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Ave
Shanghai Fosun Tonghua
D
Feb
2006
Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures. IMS projects tmarket based on hospital data from 14% of Chinese hosp
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and maintaining clear leadership in the signi
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and maintaining clear leadership in the signihuman insulin market
Human insulin value market share Human insulin volume m
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Feb
2006
76%
17%
Novo Nordisk Eli Lilly
Feb
2011
6%
Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Feb
2006
Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures
Tonghua
Dongbao Novo Nordisk Tonghua
Dong
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 M
and maintaining a very solid leadership posit
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and maintaining a very solid leadership positmodern insulin market
Modern insulin value market share Modern insulin volume m
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Feb
2006
53%
32%
8%
Novo Nordisk Sanofi-Aventis
Feb
2011
6%
BJ Ganli
Pharm
Source: IMS Monthly MAT, value figures
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Feb
2006
Source: IMS Monthly MAT, volume figures
Eli Lilly
Novo Nordisk Sa
BJEli Lilly
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Outlook for Novo Nordisk in China
Continue to collaborate with public authorities on diabetes awareness
Continue to be the main source of information on diabetes to doctors
Continue to be the leading patient support company in the diabetes fi
Expand operations further into smaller cities and rural areas
Launch of Victoza
in second half of 2011
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Closing
Novo Nordisk Capital Markets Day 5 M
I ti i th k t t i d th
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Innovation is the key to sustained growth
DiabetesModern insulins
Victoza
Degludec*
DegludecPlus*
IDegLira*
FIAsp*
*Note: Degludec is the internal designation for insulin degludec. DegludecPlus is the internal designation for insulin degludec/insulin aspart. IDegLira
is the internal designation forinsulin degludec/liraglutide. FIAsp
is the internal designation for fast acting insulin aspart.
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Capital markets expect diabetes care to contin
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Capital markets expect diabetes care to continoutgrow the general pharmaceutical industry
Growth in global pr
escription sale
s versus di
abetes care sales (CAG
Source: EvaluatePharma, data retrieved January 21, 2011
Diabetes Care salesTotal Prescription sales
2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015
Insulin and GLP-1 sales
10.7%
12.3%
18.4%
6.4%
12.0%
15.9%
3.6%
7.8%
9