Post on 15-Jan-2016
transcript
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Climate Change and Energy
Updated PowerPoint show about climate change and energy sector
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Research results of climate change
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Global warming is due to strengthened greenhouse effect
Greenhouse effect
The Earth has a natural temperature control system. Certain atmospheric gases are critical to this system and are known as greenhouse gases. On average, about one third of the solar radiation that hits the earth is reflected back to space. The Earth's surface becomes warm and as a result emits infrared radiation. The greenhouse gases trap the infrared radiation, thus warming the atmosphere. Naturally occurring greenhouse gases create a natural greenhouse effect. However, human activities are causing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere to increase.
Source: National Geographic
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Earth’s energy budget
Source: Nasa, Atmospheric Science Data Center
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The six greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol:
• Carbon dioxide or CO2
• Methane or CH4
• Nitrous oxide or N2O• Perfluorocarbons or PFC compounds• Hydrofluorocarbons or HFC compounds• Sulphur hexafluoride or SF6
Other greenhouse gases:• Ozone or O3
• Bromine compounds or halogens, e.g. CF3Br• Freons or chlorofluorocarbons or CFC:s• Water vapour or H2O (g)
• Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased markedly as a result of human activities!
Strengthening of greenhouse effect is due to increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Different greenhouse gases have different meaning to global warming
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Meaning of carbon dioxide to global warming
• Carbon dioxide is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas.– The primary source of the increased
atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide results from fossil fuel use in power and heat production as well as transport.
– The change of land use provides another significant but smaller contribution.
– The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years.
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Teollisuus20 %
Energiasektori28 %
Liikenne21 %
Maanviljely10 %
Muut4 %Kotitaloudet,
palvelut ja kauppa17 %
Lähde: EEA
Other 4 %Households
and SMEs
17 %
Power sector
28 % Idustry
20 %
Agriculture
10 %
Source: EEA
Transport
21 %
Sources of EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions
IndustryTeollisuus20 %
Energiasektori28 %
Liikenne21 %
Maanviljely10 %
Muut4 %Kotitaloudet,
palvelut ja kauppa17 %
Lähde: EEA
Other 4 %Households
and SMEs
17 %
Power sector
28 % Idustry
20 %
Agriculture
10 %
Source: EEA
Transport
21 %
Industry
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The global atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases has increased
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases correlates with temperature
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According to researches earth’s mean temperature has risen in the 20th and the 21st century
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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According to measurements the temperature is rising
Source: Climatic Research Unit
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Different reconstructions of mean temperature have been published by researchers
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Sea level is rising
Annual averages of the global mean sea level (mm).The red curveshows reconstructedsea level fields since 1870.
The black curveis basedon satellite altimetry.
The blue curveshows coastal tidegauge measurements since 1950.
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Change in volume of glaciers
Cumulative Change in Volume of Arctic Glacierssince 1960
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The average temperature is rising but our choices make a difference
Multi-model averages and assessed ranges for surface warming
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Effects of climate change
LikelyMore likely than notLikelyIncreased incidence ofextreme high sea level
(excludes tsunamis)
LikelyMore likely than notLikely in some regionssince 1970
Intense tropical cycloneactivity increases
LikelyMore likely than notLikely in many regionssince 1970s
Area affected by droughtsincreases
Very likelyMore likely than notLikely
Heavy precipitation events.Frequency (or proportion of
total rainfall from heavy falls)
increases over most areas
Very likelyMore likely than notLikelyWarm spells / heat waves.Frequency increases over
most land areas
Virtually certainLikely (nights)Very likely Warmer and more frequenthot days and nights over
most land areas
Virtually certainLikelyVery likely
Warmer and fewer cold days
and nights over most landareas
Likelihood of futuretrends based onprojections for 21stcentury
Likelihood of a humancontribution to observedtrend b
Likelihood that trendoccurred in late 20thcentury (typically post1960)
Phenomenon and directionof trend
LikelyMore likely than notLikelyIncreased incidence ofextreme high sea level
(excludes tsunamis)
LikelyMore likely than notLikely in some regionssince 1970
Intense tropical cycloneactivity increases
LikelyMore likely than notLikely in many regionssince 1970s
Area affected by droughtsincreases
Very likelyMore likely than notLikely
Heavy precipitation events.Frequency (or proportion of
total rainfall from heavy falls)
increases over most areas
Very likelyMore likely than notLikelyWarm spells / heat waves.Frequency increases over
most land areas
Virtually certainLikely (nights)Very likely Warmer and more frequenthot days and nights over
most land areas
Virtually certainLikelyVery likely
Warmer and fewer cold days
and nights over most landareas
Likelihood of futuretrends based onprojections for 21stcentury
Likelihood of a humancontribution to observedtrend b
Likelihood that trendoccurred in late 20thcentury (typically post1960)
Phenomenon and directionof trend
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Examples of major projected impacts on agriculture, forestry and ecosystemsVirtually certain (>99%) is, that• Increased yields in colder environments; decreased
yields in warmer environments • Increased insect outbreaksVery likely (90-99%) is, that• Increased danger of wildfire.• Damage to crops, soil erosion and inability to
cultivate land due to heavy precipitation eventsLikely (66-90%) is, that• Intense tropical cyclone activity increases damage to
trees, crops and coral reefs• Salinisation of freshwater systems due to high sea
levelSource: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Examples of major projected impacts on water resourcesVirtually certain (>99%) is, that• Effects on water resources relying on snow melt and
some water suppliesVery likely (90-99%) is, that• Water quality problems, e.g., algal blooms• Adverse effects on quality of surface and
groundwater; contamination of water supply; water scarcity may be relieved
Likely (66-90%) is, that • More widespread water stress• Power outages causing disruption of public water
supply • Decreased freshwater availability due to saltwater
intrusionSource: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Examples of major projected impacts on human healthVirtually certain (>99%) is, that• Reduced human mortality from decreased cold
exposureVery likely (90-99%) is, that • Increased risk of heat-related mortality• Increased risk of deaths, injuries and infectious,
respiratory and skin diseasesLikely (66-90%) is, that • Increased risk of malnutrition and water- and food
borne diseases• Intense tropical cyclone activity and floods
increase risk of deaths, injuries and diseases
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Examples of major projected impacts on industry, settlement and society 1/2
Virtually certain (>99%) is, that • Reduced energy demand for heating • Increased demand for cooling • Declining air quality in cities • Reduced disruption to transport due to
snow and ice• Effects on winter tourism
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Examples of major projected impacts on industry, settlement and society 2/2
Very likely (90-99%) is, that • Reduction in quality of life for people in warm areas
without appropriate housing• Disruption of settlements, commerce, transport and
societies due to floodingLikely (66-90%) is, that• Water shortages for settlements, industry and societies• Disruption by flood and high winds• Costs of coastal protection versus costs of land-use
relocation; potential for movement of populations and infrastructure
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Impacts of climate change in Finland
• Climate will warm up in the Nordic countries and Arctic region especially in winter– Winter season will become shorter and days
with snow cover will became less usual– Period of growth will become longer
• Precipitation will increase specially in winter, but not necessarily in summer– Frequency of heavy precipitation events
increases in every season
• Coniferous forest zone moves north
Source: www.ilmastonmuutos.info, www.ilmasto.org
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Energy production and consumption
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Total energy consumption has increased substantially in Finland
*Tähän diaan on liitettynä muistiinpanoja
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
kto
e
Source: Statistics Finland
Energy consumption in Finland 1976-2006
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Electricity consumption has increased even more than energy consumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1930 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 2010 2020 2030
TWh
Stat.
Forecast
Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007
Electricity consumption in Finland 1930-2007
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Final energy consumption by sectors in Finland 2006
Others13 %
Space heating20 %
Transport16 %
Industry51 %
Source: Statistics Finland
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Electricity consumption by sector in Finland 2007 (90,3 TWh)
Housing and agriculture
15,4 %
Losses3,6 %
Electric heating 10,0 %
Service18,0 %
Industry53,0 %
Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007
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Electricity supply by energy sources in Finland 2007(90,3 TWh) Hydro power
15,5 %
Wind power0,2 %
Bio fuel10,9 %
Waste fuels0,7 %
Natural gas11,4 %
Coal14,8 %
Oil 0,4 %
Net imports13,9 %
Nuclear power24,9 %
Peat7,3 %
Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007
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Nuclear power24,9 %
Condense etc16,1 %
Net imports13,9 %
Hydro power15,5 %
Co-generation district heating
16,1 %
Wind power0,2 %
Co-generation (CHP), Industry
13,3 %Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007
Net supplies of electricity in Finland 2007 (90,3 TWh)
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Market share of space heating, year 2006
electricity17,5 %
light fuel oil14,0 %
wood11,4 %
district heat48,3 %
other8,8 %
Source: Statistics Finland
Market share of space heating in Finland 2006
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Fuel consumption in production of district heat and CHP in Finland 2007
fuel energy54,8 TWh
coal25,9 %
others3,8 %
natural gas33,9 %
fuel oil4,6 %
peat20,8 %
wood, wood residues11,0 %
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Fuel consumption in production of district heat and CHP in Finland 1976-2007
0 %
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
oil
coal
natural gas
peat
otherwood
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Fuel shares of district heating and CHP in different areas of Finland year 2007
0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % 90 % 100 %
Uusimaa
I tä-Uusimaa
Varsinais-Suomi
Satakunta
Kanta-Häme
Pirkanmaa
Päijät-Häme
Kymenlaakso
Etelä-Karjala
Etelä-Savo
Pohjois-Savo
Pohjois-Karjala
Keski-Suomi
Keski-Pohjanmaa
Etelä-Pohjanmaa
Pohjanmaa
Pohjois-Pohjanmaa
Kainuu
Lappi
Ahvenanmaa
Natural gas Coal Peat Wood Fuel oil Others
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Electricity supply in the Nordic countries 2006
140 TWh43 TWh
14 %
10 TWh
73 %
27 %
394 TWh
Vesivoima
Ydinvoima
Lämpövoima
Tuulivoima ja geoterminen
79 TWh
14 %
28 %58 %
22 %51 %
24 %
3 %
86 %
9 %
46 % 44 %
1 %
1 %
98 %122 TWh
1 %
Pohjoismaat 2006
Lähde: Nordel Annual Report 2006
Thermal power
Hydro power
Nuclear powerWind and geothermal power
The Nordic countries 2006
Source: Nordel
36
Electricity consumption in the Nordic countries 2006
146 TWh
119 TWh
36 TWh
10 TWh
405 TWh
Asuminen
PalvelutMaataloustuotanto ym.
Teollisuus (sis. energiasektorin)
90 TWh
Verkostohäviöt
27 %
44 %
19 %
7 %3 %
56 %
23 %16 %
4 %
1 %
41 %
28 %19 %
4 %8 %
31 % 28 %
27 %8 %
6 %
41 %
30 %20 %
1%8 %
71 %
4 % 5 %
10 %10 %
Lähde: Nordel Annual Report 2006
Industry (including energy sector)
Agriculture
Housing
Service
Losses
Source: Nordel Annual Report 2006
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Total gross electricity generation in Europe 2006
0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000
MaltaLuxembourg
CyprusLatvia
EstoniaIcelandCroatia
LithuaniaSlovenia
IrelandSlovakiaHungaryDenmarkBulgariaPortugal
SwitzerlandGreece
RomaniaAustriaFinland
Czech RepublicBelgium
NetherlandsNorwaySwedenPolandTurkeySpain
ItalyUK
FranceGermany
GWh Source: Eurostat
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Gross electricity generation by Fuel – EU-27 2005
Source: Eurostat, European Commission
* Pumped Storage Plants and Other Power Stations
39
Final energy consumption in Europe 2006
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000
MaltaCyprusIcelandEstonia
LatviaLuxembour
LithuaniaSlovenia
CroatiaBulgariaSlovakia
IrelandDenmarkHungaryNorway
PortugalGreece
SwitzerlandRomania
CzechFinlandAustria
SwedenBelgium
NetherlandsPolandTurkey
SpainItaly
UKFrance
Germany
Source: Eurostat(ktoe)
40
Final energy consumption by fuel - EU27 2005
Source: Eurostat, European Commission
41
Final energy intensity in Europe 2006 per capita
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
TurkeyRomania
MaltaBulgaria
LithuaniaPoland
PortugalHungary
LatviaGreece
SlovakiaEstonia
SpainItaly
CyprusSlovenia
UKFrance
Czech RepublicGermanyDenmark
IrelandNetherlands
AustriaBelgiumSwedenNorwayFinlandIceland
Luxembourg
Source: EEA, Eurostat(toe per inhabitant)
42
Final energy consumption by sector – EU-27 2005
Source: Eurostat
43
Kotitaloudet ja palvelut
56 % Liikenne3 %
Teollisuus41 %
Lähde: Eurostat
Households, trades,
services, etc. 56 %
Transport
3%
Industry 41%
Source: Eurostat
Electricity consumption by sector EU-27 2005
44
Global total primary energy supply is increasing
**Asia excludes China.
Source: EEA
45
Regional shares of world’s total primary energy supply 2005
**Asia excludes China.
Source: EEA
46
Use of all fuels has increased globally
Source: EEA
47
Fuel shares of world’s total primary energy supply
Source: EEA
48
Increasing of electricity generation has been even faster than world’s total primary energy supply
**Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, combustible renewables & waste.
Source: EEA
49
Fuel shares ofelectricity generation 2005
**Other includes geothermal, solar, wind, combustible renewables & waste.
Source: EEA
50
Evolution from 1971 to 2005 of world’s electricity generation by regions (TWh)
**Asia excludes China.
Source: EEA
51
World’s electricity generation by regions in 2005
**Asia excludes China.
Source: EEA
52Lähde: VTT, Energia suomessa 2004
Oil Gas Coal Uranium
Over 2000 yearYears of production left
Consumption per year, 1000 Mtoe
Known and identified resources
Estimated additional resources
Difficult to utilize
Very difficult to utilize
Source: VTT, Energia Suomessa 2004
Remaining natural resources
53
Renewable Energy
54
Renewable energy sources
•Water•Biomass•Wind•Sunlight•Geothermal heat
Renewable energy technologies are directly or indirectly powered by the sun – as well as fossil fuels.
55
Biofuel10,9 %
Peat7,3 %
Waste fuels0,7 %
Nuclear power24,9 %
Natural gas11,4 %
Coal14,8 %
Oil 0,4 %
Net imports13,9 % Wind power
0,2 %
Hydro power15,5 %
Renewable energy26,6 %
Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007
Renewable energy covered more than a fourth of the electricity supply in Finland 2007
56
Renewable energy covered almost a fourth of the energy consumption in Finland 2007
Oil24,8 %
Coal13,2 %
Natural gas10,5 %
Nuclear16,9 %
Hydro and Wind Power3,5 %
Renewable24,2 %
Peat7,3 %
Net Imports of Electricity
3,1 % Wood-based fuels20,7 %
Source: Finnish Energy Industries, Energy Year 2007Source: Statistics Finland
57
The share of renewable energy sources in primary energy
consumption increased slowly in the EU-27
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,019
90
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Sha
res
in p
rimar
y e
nerg
y co
nsum
ptio
n (%
)
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Hydro
Biomass andwaste
Source: EEA, Eurostat.
58
Renewable energy sources in the EU countries 2005
% Source: Statistics Finland
59
Peat is a slowly renewable biomass fuel• Growth of peat is bigger than use in
Finland• In Finland peat is classified as a slowly
renewable biomass fuel, because the average regrowth rate of a single peat bog is 2000-3000 years.
• Peat Industry utilizes less than one per cent of peat bogs in Finland. Energy industry utilizes 90% of harvested peat.
• Twenty-six percent of the land area of Finland is peat bog of some sort
60
Green house gases
61
EU-27 green house gas emissions in 2005
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
MaltaCyprus
LatviaLuxembour
SloveniaEstonia
LithuaniaSlovakiaDenmarkSwedenFinland
BulgariaIreland
HungaryPortugal
AustriaGreece
BelgiumCzech
RomaniaNetherlands
PolandSpain
FranceItaly
UnitedGermany
Source: EEA(Mt CO2 ekv.)
62
Carbon dioxide intensity in power generation in some European countries in 2003
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Norway
Sweden
Lithuania
Latvia
Finland
Belgium
Spain
Portugal
Netherlands
Germany
Denmark
Czech
UK
Romania
Hungary
Poland
Source: Statistics Finland g(CO2)/kWh
Annual variation of
emissions in Finland
63
Greenhouse gas emissions in the EU 1990-2005
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
600019
90
199
3
1996
1999
2002
2005
vuosi
Mt e
kv.
CO
2
EU-27 sisältäenmaankäytön jametsityksenEu-27 ilman maankäyttöäja metsitystä
EU-15 sisältäenmaankäytön jametsityksenEU-15 ilman maankäyttöäja metsitystä
Sisältää Kioton pöytäkirjassa mainitut kuusi kasvihuonekaasua.
Lähde: EEA
EU-27 including land-use change and forestry EU-27 excluding land-use change and forestry
EU-15 including land-use change and forestryEU-15 excluding land-use change and forestry
Including the six greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol
Source: EEA
Year
Mt
eq
. C
O2
64
Finnish greenhouse gas emissions 1990–2006 and the emissions target
Including the six greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol
Emission trading sector, total
CO2 from combustion, non-emission trading sector
Other GHGs than CO2 from combustion
Finland‘s target Kyoto & EU-burden sharing
Source: Finland’s National Allocation Plan for Emissions Allowances for the trading period 2008–2012
65
Greenhouse gas emissions by source in Finland in 2006
Source: Statistics Finland
66
Teollisuus20 %
Energiasektori28 %
Liikenne21 %
Maanviljely10 %
Muut4 %Kotitaloudet,
palvelut ja kauppa17 %
Lähde: EEA
Other 4 %Households
and SMEs
17 %
Power sector
28 % Idustry
20 %
Agriculture
10 %
Source: EEA
Transport
21 %
Sources of EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions
67
Estimated green house gas emissions in Finland 2010 and 2025
Sähkö ja kaukolämpö
Teollisuusprosessit ja teollisuuden energia
Liikenne
Lämmitys
Muut toimialat
Muut kuin CO2-päästöt
34 %
26 %
16 %
4 %
6 %
14 %
34 %
28 %
16 %
2 %
6 %
14 %
Lähde: Suomen päästöoikeuksien jakosuunnitelma vuosille 2008-2012
2010
84,6 MtCO2-ekv./vuosi
84,3 MtCO2-ekv./vuosi
2025
Electricity and district heating
Industry
Transport
Heating
Other sectors
Green house gases excluding CO2
Source: Finland’s National Allocation Plan for Emissions
Allowances for the trading period 2008–2012
84,6 MtCO2-eq./year
84,3 MtCO2-eq./year
68
Evolution from 1971 to 2005 of world’s CO2 emissions by fuel
Mt of CO2
*** Other includes industrial waste and non-renewable municipal waste.
Source: IEA
69
World’s CO2 emissions by fuel shares in 2005
Source: IEA
70
Evolution from 1971 to 2005 of world’s CO2 emissions by region
Mt of CO2
*** Asia excludes China.
Source: IEA
71
World’s regional shares of CO2 emission in 2005
*** Asia excludes China. Source: IEA
72
CO2 emissions avoided by utilization of Combined Heat and Power production
CO2-emissions in the production of district heat and cogenerated electricity
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
million t CO2
savings due to CHP
73
CO2 emissions avoided by renewable and nuclear power
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
MtCO2
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: Finnish Energy Industries
Actual Emissions
Nuclear Power
Hydro Power
Bioenergy
Wind Power
74
Climate treaties and –policy
75
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
• The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC) is an international environmental treaty produced at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.
• Its’ stated objective is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a low enough level to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
• UNFCCC members that ratify this treaty admit officially that climate change is a serious problem.
• 192 nations have signed the UNFCCC.
Source: UNFCCC
*Tähän diaan on liitettynä muistiinpanoja
76
Kyoto Protocol 1/2
• The Kyoto Protocol is the principal update of UNFCCC• Notable international agreement
– 178 countries have ratified Kyoto Protocol • Countries that ratify this protocol commit to reducing
their emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases – CO2, N2O, CH4, SF6, HFC, PFC– carbon dioxide is primary target
• 2008-2012 developed countries have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by a collective average of 5% below their 1990 levels
• EU will reduce 8 %. – Reduction has been shared between EU countries
by burden sharing agreement Lähde: UNFCCC
77
Kyoto Protocol 2/2• Emission reduce targets for 38 countries, e.g.
– EU-15 - 8 % (Burden Sharing Agreement)– USA - 7 % (has not ratified)– Japan and Canada - 6 %– Australia + 8 % (has not ratified)– Russia, Ukraine, New Zealand 0 %– Eastern European transition economy countries (not
all) - 8 %; incl. 8 new EU countries • Eastern European countries have to do nothing. Emission
are already well below their levels• Many countries haven’t got limits e.g.
– Oil countries in the Middle-East, China, India, South-America, Asian developing industrial countries, South-Africa,…
– The idea was that those countries will start reducing their emissions in the future
Source: UNFCCC
78
Burden sharing in EU-15
• EU shared targets between member states.
• Finland have to reduce emissions to same level as 1990.
• Percentages don’t tell how challenging the target is.
– The target for Finland is estimated as one of the most expensive in many analyses
• Finland’s emissions – 1990 ca. 71 MtCO2-eq.– 2008-2012 on average ca. 83
MtCO2-eq.
Luxembourg -28 %German -21 %Denmark -21 %Austria -13 %UK -12,50 %Belgium -8 %Italy -7 %Netherlands -6 %Finland 0 %France 0 %Sweden 4 %Irland 13 %Spain 15 %Greece 25 %Portugal 27 %
79
Burden sharing in Finnish NAP2
Governmental use of Kyoto mechanisms2,4 MtCO2/a
Emissions trading sector
- 12,1 MtCO2/a -18 %
Sectors outside emissions trading
- 1 MtCO2/a- 3 %
Finland´s need to reduce emissions
from WM 2008-2012
- 12,2 MtCO2/a +- 2 MtCO2/a*
Industry- 1,5
MtCO2/a- 7 %
Electricity and DH - 10,6 MtCO2/a
- 41 %
New entrants reserve
1,4 MtCO2/a
* EU Comission required Finland to reduce the amount of emission allowances by 2 MtCO2/a
80
The EU Emission Trading System 1/2• The EU Emission Trading System started 2005• Aim is reduce green house gas emissions and reach
Kyoto target.• Companies that are in emission trading system are
bound to:– apply for a permission to green house gas
emissions– track and validate the actual emissions in
accordance with the relevant assigned amount– retire the allowances after the end of each year
• Member states set a quota for GHG emissions– the total amount of allowances is less than the
amount that would have been emitted under a business-as-usual scenario.
81
The EU Emission Trading System 2/2
• The second phase (2008-12) expands the scope significantly:– emission allowances available 200 MtCO2/year
less than 2005-2007– companies will reduce emissions or buy emission
allowances– total emissions will reduce– Finland has emission allowances 16 % (8 Mt
CO2/year ) less than 2005– Reduction has been allocated mainly to power and
district heating production.
82
Emission trade sectors• Energy Industry
– over 20 MW (thermal) power plants, oil refineries and coke furnaces
– under 20 MW power plants for district heating if in same network is one or more over 20 MW power plant in Finland
– Excluding incineration of municipal and hazardous waste • Steel Industry
– roasting and sintering units of metallic minerals – iron and steel production and founding if production capacity
is over 2,5 t/h• Construction Industry
– Production of cement, lime, glass, fiberglass, bricks, porcelain and burned stone products.
• Paper and Forrest Industry– Production of pulp, paper and board if production capacity is
over 20 t/h
83
Scope of emission trading • Emission trading covers ca. 60 % greenhouse
gas emissions of the EU. – 500 Energy and Industry plants in Finland – 12 000 plant in the EU
• Possibly enlarging the scope of the scheme to new sectors, including aviation, petrochemicals, ammonia and the aluminum sector, as well to two new gases (nitrous oxide and perfluorocarbons)
• All 27 countries of the EU are in emission trading
84
Emission trading affects fuel prices and competitiveness
Polttoaine
CO2-päästö t/MWh
Nykyinen veroton hinta
€/MWhLisäkust. 5
€/MWhLisäkust. 20
€/MWhLisäkust. 50
€/MWhkivihiili 0,334 6-8 1,67 6,68 16,7turve 0,378 7-8 1,89 7,56 18,9puu 0 10-15 0 0 0
maakaasu 0,201 17-21 1,005 4,02 10,05raskas pö 0,276 20-25 1,38 5,52 13,8
Lähde: Tilastokeskus
FuelCoal
Peat
Wood
Gas
Heavy fuel oil
CO2 emission/MWh
Present price excl. taxes Extra cost 5 Extra cost 20 Extra cost 50
Source: Statistics Finnland
85
Purpose of the emission trading system is to affect demand and supply through CO2 price
• Emission free and low emission energy sources will gain competitive edge– enhance investments and increase utilization factors– One funding source for new investments is the emission
allowances of high CO2 emission energy sources• Changes in product prices effect the demand • Competition on the market aims to minimize price increase
The goal is to reduce green house gas emissions in a cost-effective way
86
Emission trading and Kyoton mechanisms
”Additional” emission allowances
through Kyoto mechanisms by the
state (JI, CDM, Global
ETS)Installations in EU
ETS
ca. 55 % of emissions
CO2 emissions from other sectors and other GHGca. 45 % of emissions
Additional emission allowances through EU ETS
Additional emission allowances through Kyoto mechanisms
Finland’s emission ceiling2008-2012 (ca. 71
MtCO2-ekv/a without Kyoto mechanisms and
EU ETS)
87
Climate Policy - Responsibilities 2008-2012
Each EU Member State hasown emission quota
DEPL
FIUK
FREmissions outside
ETSEmissions within
ETSEmissions outside
ETSEmissions within
ETS
Each MS makes a national allocation plan
KYOTO-TARGET EU-ETS
Total Amount of EU Emission allowances
National allocationplan for industrialplants
88
Link directive brings to the carbon market emission reductions though so called Kyoto- mechanisms• Link directive published 13.11.2004, In Finland
implemented by changing the emission trading law 12.1.2007
• Makes it possible to utilize emission reduction executed outside EU in EU’s ETS
– Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)-projects executed in developing countries provide CER-units, which have been used since 2005
– Joint Implementation (JI) -projects executed in industrial countries provide ERU-units, which have been used since 2008
• Limits the price increase of emission allowances in the EU
• Makes the carbon market global
89
• CDM, Clean Development Mechanism, CDM is an arrangement under the Kyoto Protocol allowing
industrialized countries with a greenhouse gas reduction commitment to invest in projects that reduce emissions in developing countries as an alternative to more expensive emission reductions in their own countries. Distribution of CDM emission reductions, by country. The CDM allows net global greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced at a much lower global cost by financing emissions reduction projects in developing countries where costs are lower than in industrialized countries
• Additionality A crucial feature of an approved CDM carbon project is that it has established that the planned reductions would not occur without the additional incentive provided by emission reductions credits, a concept known as "additionality".
Flexibility mechanisms (Kyoto mechanisms) 1/2
90
Flexibility mechanisms (Kyoto mechanisms) 2/2
•JI, Joint Implementation Through the Joint Implementation,
industrialized countries with a greenhouse gas reduction commitment (so-called Annex 1 countries) may fund emission reducing projects in other industrialized countries as an alternative to emission reductions in their own countries. Typically, these projects occur in countries in the former Eastern Europe. Emission reductions are awarded credits called Emission Reduction Units (ERUs).
91
Climate credits (Carbon credits)
•Emission Reduction Unit, ERU
Emission reduction unit (ERU) refers to the reduction of greenhouse gases, particularly under Joint Implementation, where it represents one tonne of CO2 equivalent reduced.
•Certified Emission Reduction, CER
Like ERU, but CERs are climate credits (or carbon credits) issued by CDM.
92
Future Prospects
93
Growth scenario of global energy use
Öljy
Hiilil
Kaasu
BiomassaYdin
Muut uusiutuvat
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
Lähde: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006, perusskenaario
Nuclear
Biomass
Gas
Coal
Oil
Other renewable
Source: IEA World energy outlook 2006, Basic Scenario
94
Electricity supply by energy sources scenario in Finland
Sähkön tuotanto energialähteittäin, TWh
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
nettotuonti
muut polttoaineetturve
maakaasu
öljy
kivihiili
ydinvoima
tuulivoimavesivoima
Lähde: KTM
Net importOther fuelsPeat
GasOilCoal
Nuclear powerWind powerHydro power
Source: Ministry of Employment and the
Economy
Electricity Supply by Energy Sources, TWh
95
Development of power consumption
2006 90 TWh, 2020 107 TWh, 2030 115 TWh
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
TW
h
Losses
Electric heating
Households andagriculture
Services andtransportation
Other industry
Chemical industry
Metal industry
Forest industry
2006 90 TWh, 2020 107 TWh, 2030 115 TWh
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
TW
h
Losses
Electric heating
Households andagriculture
Services andtransportation
Other industry
Chemical industry
Metal industry
Forest industry0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
TW
h
Losses
Electric heating
Households andagriculture
Services andtransportation
Other industry
Chemical industry
Metal industry
Forest industry
Source: Ministry of Employment and the Economy
96
Target of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is stabilize greenhouse gas emissions to safety level
5
10
15
20
25
Source: UK DEFRA
CO2 -emissions (GtC)
Basic Scenario
Developed countries Undeveloped countries
550 ppm stabilization
0
30
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
450 ppm stabilization
97
Scenarios compared to actual emissions
98
EU in international climate negotiations
Communication on Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius
• Independent commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 20% from 1990 level
• If an international agreement signed, 30% GHG reduction compared to 1990 + developing CDM
Targets will be reached by:• Developing EU ETS • Improving energy efficiency (20 % by 2020) • Increasing share of renewable energy (20 % by 2020) • CCS-technology, other R&D, reducing emissions from transportation
and other sectors
99
Finland’s energy and climate strategy and current political climate –Kyoto period
• Main Messages of the Government– All energy sources must be exploitable– Renewable energy must be promoted– Industrial Electricity Tax reduced– Major Part (ca.8Mt/a) of the emission reduction allocated
to emission trading sector, other sectors need to reduce emission 1Mt/a
– Finland (state) will utilize Kyoto mechanisms 2Mt/a
How will Finland reach its’ Kyoto target and what is the role of other policy instruments
in EU’s Emission Trading Scheme Environment?
100
Main techniques to increase renewable energy 1/2Hydro Power
• Utilizing rivers• Reservoirs• Tide power• Wave power
Bioenergy
• Wood and agricultural products
• Biogas • Biofuel made from
biomass
101
Main techniques to increase renewable energy 2/2
Wind Power
• Wind Mill– nowadays is
possible to build onshore, offshore or inland
Solar Power
• Solar Electricity– solar cell
• Solar Heating– thermal collectors – heat pumps
• Electricity and Heat– concentrated solar
power
102
Carbon Capture and Storage - CCS
• CCS is an approach to mitigate global warming by capturing CO2 from large point sources such as fossil fuel power plants and storing it. Technology for large scale capture of CO2 is already commercially available and fairly well developed. Although CO2 has been injected into geological formations for various purposes, the long term storage of CO2 is a relatively untried concept and as yet no large scale power plant operates with a full CCS system.
• CCS could reduce CO2 emissions approximately 80-90%, increase the fuel needs of a coal-fired plant with CCS by about 25% and increase the cost of energy from a new power plant with CCS by 21-91% [IPCC special report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage 2005]
103
CO2 capture • In post-combustion, the CO2 is removed after combustion of the
fossil fuel - this is the scheme that would be applied to conventional power plants. Here, carbon dioxide is captured from flue gases at power stations. The technology is well understood and is currently used in other industrial applications.
• Pre-combustion is widely applied in fertilizer, chemical, gaseous fuel (H2, CH4), and power production. In these cases, the fossil fuel is partially oxidized, for instance in a gasifier. The resulting syngas (CO and H2) is shifted into CO2 and more H2. The resulting CO2 can be captured from a relatively pure exhaust stream. The H2 can now be used as fuel; the carbon is removed before combustion takes place.
• In Oxy-fuel combustion the fuel is burned in oxygen instead of air. To limit the resulting flame temperatures to levels common during conventional combustion, cooled flue gas is recirculated and injected into the combustion chamber. The flue gas consists of mainly carbon dioxide and water vapour, the latter of which is condensed through cooling. The result is an almost pure carbon dioxide stream that can be transported to the sequestration site and stored.
Source: Wikipedia
104
CO2 Storage (sequestration)
• Various forms have been conceived for permanent storage of CO2. These forms include: – gaseous storage in various deep geological
formations (including saline formations and exhausted gas fields)
– liquid storage in the ocean – solid storage by reaction of CO2 with metal
oxides to produce stable carbonates
Source: Wikipedia
105
CCS – Carbon Capture and Storage
Source: IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage