Post on 15-Jan-2016
transcript
1
Merritt TSA Type II Silviculture Analysis
Merritt, B.C.
April 5th, 2007
2
Presentation Overview
Project Objectives MPB in Merritt Basecase Sensitivity Analyses FFT Opportunity
3
Project Objectives
Impact of MPB on harvest levels and other forest values such as wildlife habitat
Evaluate how silviculture can reduce the impacts
More specifically: When, and by how much, will the beetle affect timber supply Recommend and assess potential ways to improve timber
supply and non-timber values Prioritize spending
4
Classification of Land Base
TSA Area
Retention Major SalvageSilviculture Opportunity
No Treatment
Restoration to Enhance
Partial Cut
Basic ObligationsBasic Silviculture:
Fire/Pest
Incremental Silv.:Fert., Thin, Prune
5
Mountain Pine Beetle
Severity % Affected
Trace 0 – 1
Low 1 – 10
Moderate 11 – 30
Severe 31 - 50
Very severe 51+
6
2006 projection - Merritt
7
2010 projection - Merritt
8
2015 projection - Merritt
9
2020 projection - Merritt
10
Merritt MPB Projections by Severity
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
2004 2005 2006 2010 2015 2020 2024
Year of MPB Flight
Vo
lum
e m
3
Trace Low Moderate Severe Very Severe
11
Defining a Base Case
Updated netdown; Updated resultant file, which includes an updated
inventory; New analysis units and yield tables; Recalculation of the PSI for each resultant polygon; Old growth management area (OGMAs); Disturbing the inoperable; Updated UWR modelling; and MPB projections to 2015.
12
Base Case
1,560,000990,000
2,840,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Harvest Level Available Stock
13
Conversion to Managed
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Vol
ume
Har
vest
ed (m
3/ye
ar)
0-5 25 45 65 85 105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
MPB Natural Managed
14
Harvest by Species
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Har
vest
vol
um
e (m
3/h
a)
0.5 25 45 65 85 105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245 265
Year
Pine Douglas_fir Spruce Balsam Decid Hemlock
15
ECA by CWS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85
105 125 145 165 185 205
YearC
WS
EC
A (
area
*re
cov%
/tot
ar
ea)
BROOK-3011 ha ECA threshold
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85
105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
CW
S E
CA
(ar
ea *
reco
v%/t
ot
area
)
BELL-344 ha ECA threshold
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85
105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
CW
S E
CA
(ar
ea *
reco
v%/t
ot a
rea)
DILLARD-3875 ha ECA threshold
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85
105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
CW
S E
CA
(ar
ea *
reco
v%/t
ot a
rea)
HACKETT-168 ha ECA threshold
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85
105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
CW
S E
CA
(ar
ea *
reco
v%/t
ot
area
)
KWINSHATIN-2719 ha ECA threshold
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85
105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
CW
S E
CA
(ar
ea *
reco
v%/t
ot
area
)
LEE-470 ha ECA threshold
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85
105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
CW
S E
CA
(ar
ea *
reco
v%/t
ot
area
)
SKUAGAM-456 ha ECA threshold
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85
105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
CW
S E
CA
(ar
ea *
reco
v%/t
ot
area
)
TROUT-1474 ha ECA threshold
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85
105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
CW
S E
CA
(ar
ea *
reco
v%/t
ot a
rea)
DILLARD-3875 ha ECA threshold
16
-Return on Investment (ROI)-Merchantability
Economic Indicators
17
Return On Investment (ROI)
Uses TIPSY to generate:
•Yield Tables
•Costs and Revenues
Standardized FFT IRR Worksheet:•Calculates ROI and NPVs
18
Example ROI OutputStand Rehabilitation Financial Analysis
Unit Description: Example ROI
TreatedAge m3/ha Age m3/ha Calendar Cost
0 0 0 0 Year ($/ha)
10 0 10 0 Fill plant 2006 50520 0 20 0 IRR 30 1 30 9 NPV 2% 40 19 40 57 NPV 3% 50 50 50 105 NPV 4% 60 85 60 155 B/C 2% 70 126 70 202 B/C 3% 80 165 80 248 B/C 4% 90 208 90 297
100 247 100 338 110 286 110 379120 322 120 414130 354 130 446140 380 140 472150 406 150 494 Untreated Treated
160 429 160 517 Rotation Age 135 115170 451 170 538 Fixed Harvest Costs ($/ha) 2,270 2,270180 469 180 551 Tree-To-Truck Costs ($/ha) 5,732 6,175 Untreated Treated190 484 190 566 Haul Costs ($/ha) 2,386 2,587 2.7 3.5200 502 200 576 Milling Cost ($/ha) 14,506 15,020
Harvest Revenue ($/ha) 53,507 52,194
-$244
(benefits and costs of the incremental treatment)
3.38%$1,681$246
INCREMENTAL TREATMENT
cMAI
HARVEST COST ASSUMPTIONSPhysical Rotation
4.331.490.52
FINANCIAL INDICESCOST ASSUMPTIONSUntreated
YIELD TABLES ROI = 3.38%
19
Merchantability
A tool for describing the relative economics of timber harvesting opportunities across a forested landbase.
Merchantability = Product Value – Operating Costs
20
Merchantability- Product Value
Product value approximates the selling price for lumber and chips
Product Value is a function of: Site Index Species Stocking Age
21
Merchantability- Operating CostsCosts involved in operating, building roads, harvesting
wood, manufacturing products and reforestation
Operating cost is a function of: Slope Terrain Volume/ha Cycle time Species BEC zone Stocking Age
22
Merchantability- Index
•Each stand given a Merchantability Class
•Summarized by graphs and maps
Merchantability Class Merchantability Range Ranking SchemeHigh Return Stands >/= $45.00 0Moderate Return Stands $30.00-<$45.00 1Economic Stands $15.00 - < $30.00 2Marginal Stands $0 - <$15.00 3Deficit Stands -$15.00 - <$0.00 4Moderate Deficit Stands -$30.00 - <$15.00 5High Deficit Stands -$45.00 - < -$30.00 6Severe Deficit Stands <-$45.00 7
23
Merchantability- Map product
24
Merchantability- Area Summary
25
Sensitivity Analyses
26
Harvest all MPB Very Severe
1,560,000990,000
3,813,000
1,590,000
1,380,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Basecase Harvest Level Harvest all MPB kill Harvest Level
27
Plant all unharvested MPB
990,000 1,560,000
1,360,0001,610,000
2,840,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Basecase Harvest Level Plant all MPB (VSML) Kill Harvest Level
Plant 122,000 ha
Mid term increase: 370,000 m3/year
28
Plant Unharvested MPB-ROI > 2%
990,000 1,560,000
1,360,000
1,570,000
2,840,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Basecase Harvest Level Plant all ROI treatable MPB (VSML) Kill Harvest Level
Plant 89,000 ha
Mid term increase: 370,000 m3/year
29
Faster MPB Spread
1,560,000990,000
2,840,000
1,530,000
590,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
0-5 20 40 60 80100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Basecase Harvest Level Fast MPB Spread Harvest Level
30
Presently Utilized Uplift Level
1,560,000
990,000
2,340,000 1,560,000
850,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Basecase Harvest Level Presently Utilized Uplift Level Harvest Level
31
Retain 150m3/ha non-Pl
1,560,000
990,000
2,840,000
1,580,000
960,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Basecase Harvest Level Retain stands with non-pine volume Harvest Level
32
Kill MPB down to 10cm DBH
1,560,000990,000
2,840,000
1,560,000960,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Basecase Harvest Level 10cm DBH MPB kill Harvest Level
33
Two year shelf life
1,560,000990,000
2,840,000
1,550,000680,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Basecase Harvest Level 2yr Shelf Life Harvest Level
34
Two year shelf life-Availability
1,560,000990,000
2,840,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Basecase Harvest Level Basecase Availability 2yr Shelf Life Availability
35
Plant GI spruce instead of pine
1,560,000990,000
2,840,000
1,720,0001,120,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Basecase Harvest Level Spruce Genetic Gains Harvest Level
36
Retention Sensitivities FN Retention
990,000 1,560,000
960,0001,530,000
2,840,000
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Basecase FN Retention
Ecological Retention
1,560,000990,000
2,840,000
1,560,000
910,000
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Basecase Ecological Retention
Merchantability Retention
990,000 1,560,000
890,000
1,560,000
2,840,000
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Basecase Merchantability Retention
All CWS Retention
1,560,000990,000
2,840,000
1,550,000980,000
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Basecase All CWS Retention
37
FFT Opportunity Scenario
Increased Planting of Genetically Improved Spruce
Plant all unharvested MPB kill with an ROI > 2%
CWS Restoration (planting) occurs irrespective of ROI
Retention of 100% FN Retention areas
38
FFT Opportunity Scenario
990,0001,560,000
1,440,0001,780,000
2,840,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205 225 245
Year
Vol
ume
(m3/
yr)
Basecase Harvest Level Most Probable FFT Scenario Harvest Level
39
FFT Opportunity Age class
Basecase
0
20,000
40,00060,000
80,000
100,000
120,000140,000
160,000
180,000
-10 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250
10 year age classes
Are
a (h
a)
THLB non-THLB productive
Restoration Scenario
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
-10 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250
10 year age classes
Are
a (h
a)THLB non-THLB productive
40
FFT Opportunity ECA Impact
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205
YearC
WS
EC
A (
area
*re
cov%
/tot
are
a)DILLARD-3875 ha ECA threshold Basecase
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85
105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
CW
S E
CA
(ar
ea *
reco
v%/t
ot a
rea)
DILLARD-3875 ha ECA threshold
41
FFT Planting Opportunity
Basecase FFT OpportunityHarvest 117,204 117,126Planted 0 91,428Left Unplanted 122,156 31,295
42
Classification of Landbase
43
Classification of Landbase
44
Environmental Reporting
Seral Stage Patch Size Fine filter- UWR/Grizzly/Woodpecker Harvest in FN Retention Area CWS- ECA/Road Density/Seral stage
45
Seral Stage
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Pro
duct
ive
Are
a (h
a)
NROV 15 45 75 105 135 165 195
Year
Total TSA Area
Shrub Pole Young Mature Old
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Pro
duct
ive
Are
a (h
a)
0-5
25 45 65 85 105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
NDT 2
Shrub Pole Young Mature Old
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Pro
duct
ive
Are
a (h
a)
0-5
25 45 65 85 105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
NDT3
Shrub Pole Young Mature Old
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Pro
duct
ive
Are
a (h
a)
0-5
25 45 65 85 105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
NDT4
Shrub Pole Young Mature Old
46
Harvest in FN Retention Areas
No harvest in FN 100% for 15 years
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Har
vest
Are
a ha
/yea
r)
0-5
25 45 65 85 105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
Restoration Scenario
100
10
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Har
vest
Are
a ha
/yea
r)
0-5
25 45 65 85 105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
Basecase
100
10
47
Patch Size-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
0to2 2to10 10to20 20to50 50to100 100to1000 >1000
Patch Size
Are
a (h
a)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Patc
h Fr
eque
ncy
Shrub/Herb Pole/Sapling Young Forest Mature Old Frequency
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
0to2 2to10 10to20 20to50 50to100 100to1000 >1000
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
0to2 2to10 10to20 20to50 50to100 100to1000 >1000
Patch Size
Are
a (h
a)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Patc
h Fr
eque
ncy
Shrub/Herb Pole/Sapling Young Forest Mature Old Frequency
48
CWS ECA
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
CW
S E
CA
(are
a *r
ecov
%/t
ot
area
)
BROOK-3011 ha ECA threshold Basecase
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
CW
S E
CA
(are
a *r
ecov
%/t
ot
area
)
BELL-344 ha ECA threshold basecase
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
CW
S E
CA
(ar
ea *
reco
v%/t
ot a
rea)
DILLARD-3875 ha ECA threshold Basecase
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205
YearC
WS
EC
A (a
rea
*rec
ov%
/tot
are
a)HACKETT-168 ha ECA threshold Basecase
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
CW
S E
CA
(are
a *r
ecov
%/t
ot a
rea)
KWINSHATIN-2719 ha ECA threshold Basecase
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
CW
S E
CA
(are
a *r
ecov
%/t
ot a
rea)
LEE-470 ha ECA threshold Basecase
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
CW
S E
CA
(are
a *r
ecov
%/t
ot a
rea)
SKUAGAM-456 ha ECA threshold Basecase
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0-5 25 45 65 85105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
CW
S E
CA
(are
a *r
ecov
%/t
ot a
rea)
TROUT-1474 ha ECA threshold Basecase
49
CWS Seral Stage
0
50
100150
200
250
300
350
400450
Prod
ucti
ve A
rea
(ha)
0-5
25 45 65 85 105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
Lee CWS
Shrub Pole Young Mature Old
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Prod
ucti
ve A
rea
(ha)
0-5
25 45 65 85 105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
Trout CWS
Shrub Pole Young Mature Old
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Pro
duct
ive
Are
a (h
a)
0-5
25 45 65 85 105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
Lee CWS
Shrub Pole Young Mature Old
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Pro
duct
ive
Are
a (h
a)
0-5
25 45 65 85 105 125 145 165 185 205
Year
Trout CWS
Shrub Pole Young Mature Old