1

MRC-RFMMCMRC-RFMMC

TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASINFOR THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASIN

44thth International Symposium on Flood Defense International Symposium on Flood DefenseToronto, 7 May 2008Toronto, 7 May 2008

MRC-RFMMCMRC-RFMMC

TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASINFOR THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASIN

44thth International Symposium on Flood Defense International Symposium on Flood DefenseToronto, 7 May 2008Toronto, 7 May 2008

2

Introduction

Data

People

Model

IntroductionIntroduction Mekong River Commission

– Formed in 1995

– Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam

– Dialogue partners: China and Myanmar

Objectives– Joint management shared water resources

– Development of economic potential of the river

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

3

Introduction

Data

People

Model

IntroductionIntroduction Devastating floods in 2000, 2001, 2002

Between 1 and 8 million people affected

Flood Management and Mitigation Programme agreed upon

Funding about US $ 20 million

Operational since 2005

Objectives– Improve flood forecasts and flood data exchange

– Develop technical standards and training

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

4

Introduction

Data

People

Model

IntroductionIntroduction

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

“The Flood Management and Mitigation Programme (FMMP) aims to prevent, minimise or mitigate people’s suffering and economic losses due to floods, while preserving the environmental benefits of floods”

“The Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre in Phnom Penh is to provide timely and reliable flood forecasts for the Mekong mainstream.”

5

Introduction

Data

People

Model

IntroductionIntroduction RFMMC flood forecasting at present

– Short term 1-5 day forecasts

– 23 locations along Mekong River

– SSARR model

– Published at website

– Distributed by email

– Mandate is Flood ForecastSystem

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

6

Introduction

Data

People

Model

IntroductionIntroduction The objective is to produce a flood forecast.

For that we need– data

– people

– models

– system including procedures

And this may be the order of importance!

System

Sharing

ConclusionsFuture

7

Data RequirementsData Requirements Water level data

– Near real time water level main stream

– Near real time water level main tributaries

Rainfall Data– WMO GTS rainfall data

– Existing near real time rainfall data at agencies

– Extension of network of near real time rainfall stations

Satellite Rainfall Estimates– Satellite Rainfall Estimates

– Weather Model Forecasts

Introduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

8

Synoptic Synoptic StationsStations

Introduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

9

Satellite Satellite Rainfall Rainfall EstimateEstimate

Introduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

10

Rain Gauge NetworkRain Gauge Network Network Coverage

– Average coverage good in Thailand and Viet Nam

– Spatial distribution may need improvement

– Both are insufficient in Cambodia and Lao PDR

Operation and Maintenance– Thailand and Viet Nam need little support

– Cambodia and Laos face problems

– Historical stations need attention

Introduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

11

Analysis CambodiaAnalysis Cambodia Department of Hydrology and River Works,

Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology– Presently 5 rainfall stations reported

– After upgrade 9

Department of Meteorology (MOWRAM)– Presently 21 rainfall stations near real time

– After upgrade 35

– First phase (upgrade of 8 stations) completed

– Second phase (6 new stations) almost complete

M-HYCOS (telemetry)– 7 stations proposed for upgrade

Introduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

12

13

14

Analysis Lao PDRAnalysis Lao PDR Department of Meteorology and Hydrology,

Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry– Presently 33 rainfall stations near real time

– After upgrade 40-44

– After extension network up to 50

Introduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

15

Analysis explained using map

16

Analysis explained using map

17

Thailand, Viet NamThailand, Viet Nam In Thailand the coverage of near real time rainfall

stations within the LMB is very good

– No upgrade or new stations needed (?)

– No new stations needed

– The main issue is timely data transmission

In Viet Nam some new stations may be needed on the borders of the LMB

– No upgrade of stations needed (?)

– The main issue is timely data transmission

Introduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

18

Introduction

Data

People

Model

Data AgreementsData Agreements Much effort went into improving data delivery

– MoU Cambodia and Lao PDR

– Contracts with hydro-met agencies

– Negotiations with other two countries progressing well

Expected:– Marked improvement in data availability by 2009

Data availability and quality will need constant attention

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

19

Introduction

Data

People

Model

PeoplePeople The people ensure the quality of the flood

forecast– Training in using modeling tools

– On the job training building the models

– Training communication tools

– Training FEWS – modeling environment

Refresher training and building of experience by working with the models and FEWS will never stop

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

20

Introduction

Data

People

Model

ModelsModels The models are a tool to support the flood

forecaster

In consultation with member states: implement URBS as a trial model (December 2006)

URBS will eventually be one of a suite of different models at the RFMMC

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

21

URBSURBS What is URBS

– Conceptual hydrological flood routing

– Parameter-poor

– Robust operational

– Input primarily rainfall data

Advantages– Lack of data from one station or one data supplier

permitted

– Minimum set of rainfall data from WMO-GTS and Satellite Rainfall Estimate is always available

Introduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

22

URBSURBS URBS has the following characteristics

– Semi-distributed non-linear network model

– Combines rainfall-runoff and runoff-routing

– Models spatial & temporal variability of rainfall

– Proven record in large river basins

Introduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

23

ImplementationImplementation First mission March 2007:

– Training of staff

– Work planning

– Project management

Follow up: building of URBS models– Flood Centre staff continuously involved

– First trial version ready by August 2007

– Now ready for parallel testing 2008 season

A lot has been done in a very short time, on a relatively low budget – proof of concept

The new model is still untested in forecast mode

Introduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

24

CatchmentSIMCatchmentSIM GIS topographic parameterisation & hydrologic

analysis software

Automatically delineates watersheds & sub- catchments

Includes a flexible macro language to fully couple the output with any hydrologic model

Uses publicly available digital elevation data from the NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission

Introduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

25

• Medium sized tributary

• Located in the central part of Lao PDR

• Joins the main river 55km downstream of Thakhek

• Catchment area of 9,300km2

• Mountainous in the east and flood plain in the west

Se Bang FaiSe Bang FaiIntroduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

26

• Flow at any location• Height at any location with a H-Q relationship

Se Bang FaiSe Bang FaiIntroduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

27

Se Bang FaiSe Bang FaiIntroduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

28

Model complexModel complex 50 models developed

Stage 1 upstream of Kratie– 40 models

Stage 2 downstream of Kratie– 10 models

Special module for Tonle Sap / Great Lake system

Ultimately linked to hydrodynamic models

Introduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

29

Introduction

Data

People

Model

FEWSFEWS

Delft FEWS selected– Open system, any model can be added

– No tie-in with one type of model supplier

– Very flexible – configuration to requirements user

– User-friendly interface

– No comparable alternatives

– Used worldwide by major national and international organizations

– Software free – license conditions apply

– Both stand-alone and on-line distributed

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

30

Introduction

Data

People

Model

ImplementationImplementation First FEWS missions in March 2008

– Building adapter FEWS-URBS

– Implementation data inputs

– RFMMC staff involved (continuity)

– June 2008: first implementation expected

– 2008 flood season: testing, parallel operation

The Mekong FEWS is a work in progress, only the first phase will be ready for the 2008 flood season

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

31

SystemSystem

screenshot MEKONG FEWS

32

Introduction

Data

People

Model

ProceduresProcedures

First mission August 2007– Documenting present situation

– Draft report September 2007

– And a manual of the present FFS

Second mission March 2008– Preparation to create two documents:

1. Policy document (in consultation)

2. Operational document (internal)

– Implementation for the 2008 flood season

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

33

ConclusionsConclusions Data

– Upgrade existing historical rain gauge stations– Extend existing rain gauge station network– Use mobile phone – SMS– Use manual rain gauges– Low tech, low budget, low O&M– Complementary to AHNIP and M-HYCOS– Secure direct access to AHNIP and M-HYCOS– Secure GTS connection for RFMMC

Introduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

34

ConclusionsConclusions Models

– URBS model selected as trial flood forecasting model

– Basic and advanced training of staff completed

– Program to develop & calibrate 50 models completed (March 2009)

– Overall Mekong model set up and working

– First model of Cambodian floodplain and Great Lake system operational

– Use during 2008 flood season with satellite rainfall and forecasts as inputs

Introduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

35

FutureFuture Data

– Conclude all MoU’s and Agreements

– Conclude support contracts with involved Agencies

– Start working with the Agencies

People– RFMMC staff involved in model maintenance and

further implementation of FEWS

– Regular refresher and advanced training

Introduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

36

FutureFuture Models

– Ongoing improvement of the URBS Mekong models

– Study into desirability hydrodynamic modeling

– Implementation of other models

System– Ongoing improvement of FEWS

– Implementation of other data sources

– Phase II: on-line distributed system (now stand-alone system)

– Use, testing and improvement of Operational Procedures

Introduction

Data

People

Model

System

Sharing

Conclusions

Future

37

Thank you very much for your Thank you very much for your attention !attention !

Acknowledgments:

Terry Malone – SunWater, Australia

Marco Hartman, HKV Consultants, Netherlands

Astrid Janssen, DELTARES, Netherlands

And of course: the RFMMC Team