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Sustainable Biomass Feedstock Assessment in the Northeast

Sun Grant Region

Peter Woodbury,Zia Ahmed, Christian Peters, Jenifer Wightman

(Cornell University)

Sun Grant / DOE Regional Feedstock Partnership

Report and Planning Meeting

24 February 2010 San Antonio, TX, USA

We want a lot from the land – food, feed, fiber, fuel

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National

Regional

State

Local

REGIONAL SCALELand Cover (aggregated classes)

Source: National Land Cover Database

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Land Cover by State -- NE Sun Grant Region

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10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Mai

ne

Verm

ont

Wes

t Virg

inia

New H

ampsh

ire

New Y

ork

Delawar

e

Mich

igan

Pennsy

lvania

Mar

ylan

d

Ohio

Connec

ticut

Mas

sach

usetts

New Je

rsey

Rhode I

sland

Distric

t of C

olum

bia

Per

cen

tage

of

Are

a

.

Wet/Water

Crops

Pasture/Hay

Grassland

Shrub

Forested

Barren

Developed

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Potential New Land for Perennial Feedstocks – Start with pasture, hay and grasslands

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Remove land with slope greater than 15%

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Remove Federal land

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Remove current hay and pasture area based on Census of Agriculture data.

Remove fields smaller than 5 acres

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regional map, area

Potentially available herbaceous land, not hay, not pasture

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Hay

(2020)

Land could become available due to increased crop yield. Example: corn and hay in NY.

Regressions performed for 35 crops for each state

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national map, area

Potentially available cropland due to increased crop yield by 2020-2030

OK, we’ve identified some suitable, potentially available land. How can we predict potential

yields of feedstocks?

Focus on perennial feedstocks (grasses and wilow) because they have reduced environmental impacts compared to annual crops.

Predict potential yield under low intensity and high intensity management based on soil and climate characteristics, historical crop yield data and a limited number of yield trials.

This is just a first step for strategic planning, more field research is needed!

Production potential depends on soil and climate

NCCPI developed by USDA-NRCS, Sharon Waltman, Bob Dobos, and others

Predict the yield of crops and bioenergy feedstocks based on soil and climate characteristics.

Y = 0.9541 + 3.759 XR² = 0.648 (p<0.001)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Me

an

ha

y yi

eld

(to

n/a

cre

s)

Mean NCCPI rating

Total potential feedstock production on herbaceous land, 2020, high intensity or low intensity

CT DE MA MD ME MI NH NJ NY OH PA RI VT WV0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

Pro

du

cti

on

(x

10

00

to

ns

)

Total potential feedstock production on cropland, 2020Two options: high intensity or low intensity

CT DE MA MD ME MI NH NJ NY OH PA RI VT WV0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

Low-intensity (hay)

High-intensity (switchgrass)

Pro

du

cti

on

(x

10

00

to

ns

)

How do owners want to manage their land?Survey results from New York State

71% of owners of idle land have no plans to sell or to return the land to active agriculture.

10% of owners plan to sell their land within 10 years, and only about 10% of buyers are expected to be farmers.

One-third of idle land is managed by occasional mowing, one-third has no management plan (Kay and Bills 2007).

Forest -- trend is towards smaller parcels, most owners have goals other than harvest.

Sources: Germain et al. 2007, Kay and Bills 2007.

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Logging Residues (draft)

Source: ORNL & USDA Forest Service

NOTE: For mapping, results are normalized to the entire county area

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national map, area

Potentially available cropland due to increased crop yield by 2020-2030

Production potential depends on soil and climate

NCCPI developed by USDA-NRCS, Sharon Waltman, Bob Dobos, and others

DRAFT: Total potential feedstock production in 2020Two options: high intensity or low intensity

Doesn’t include forest land!

New York Sustainable Biomass Feedstock Study & Biofuels Roadmap

SUNY-ESFTim Volk, Phil Castellano, Rene Germain,

Thomas Buchholz

Cornell UniversityJeni Wightman, Zia Ahmed, Christian Peters,

Jeff Melkonian, Hilary Mayton

Rochester Institute of TechnologyJames Winebrake, Erin Green,

And the rest of the NYS Biofuels Roadmap team: led by Zywia Wojnar of Pace University & Corinne Rutzke of Cornell University

Financial and other support: NYSERDA, NYS-DEC, and NYS Ag. & Markets

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Increased milk yield per cow,

Equine land use,

Equine hay & straw use

Feedstock production costs,

Short-rotation willow,

Forest thinnings & residues

Greenhouse gas emissions

STATE SCALE –New York

Milk yield per cow is increasing, therefore less feed and land required to produce a gallon of milk (NY).

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Projected feedstock production & cost circa 2020-2030 (very rapid bioenergy development scenario, NY State)

Current production agricultural and forest production

Current production & potential feedstock production

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GHG emissions from feedstock production

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Warm-season perennial grass field trials(Hilary Mayton and others, Cornell University)

LOCAL SCALE – FIELDS AND FARMS

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Dedicated bioenergy feedstock yield trial sites

Three Year Old Willow Biomass CropsVolk and others, SUNY-ESF

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0

10

20

30

40

0 10 20 30 40

Sim

ulat

ed y

ield

,O

D t

ha-1

Measured yield, OD t ha-1

Simulated yield = 0.94 * Measured yieldr2 = 0.65

The PNM dynamic simulation model with site-specific data predicts 3-year willow yield

(Model -Melkonian et al. 2010, Measured – Volk et al. 2010)

Bruce Dale, Greg Hanson,Satish Joshi, Hilary Mayton,Jeff Melkonian,

Rich Ready,Tom Richard,

Corinne Rutzke,Marianne Sarrantonio,

Tim Volk, James Winebrake,

Zywia Wojnar

& many other researchers who have shared their hard-earned data!

Collaborators

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We gratefully acknowledge the following sources of funding for our ongoing research:

Sun Grant & US-DOE Feedstock Partnership

Northeast Sun Grant Institute of Excellence,

US Department of Transportation,

NY Dept. of Environmental Conservation

NY Dept. of Agriculture and Markets

NYSERDA