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Unidata Policy Committee

National Weather Service ReportOctober 25, 2004

LeRoy SpaydChief, Meteorological Services Division

Office of Climate, Water, and Weather ServicesNOAA’s National Weather Service

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Outline

• Teamwork• NWS Products and Service• National Digital Forecast Database

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TeamworkPartnerships are critical to ensure

the right message is sent and received!

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Teamwork• 751 Communities• 47 States

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StormReady Success Story Van Wert, Ohio F4 Tornado - 11/10/02Forecast & Detection

Forecast & Detection

WarningWarning

Dissemination

Dissemination

ResponseResponse

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TeamworkNational Research Council’s Report

• Today’s partnerships are sound and functioning well

• Recommendations include:– Congressional Mandate –

protect life and property– Public/Private Partnership

Process– Data and Products in

standardized format– New/Discontinue Products– Communicate Uncertainty

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Seamless Suite of Products

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

6 – 10 Days6 – 10 Days

8 – 14 Days8 – 14 Days

MonthsMonthsSeasonsSeasons YearsYears

Forecast Uncertainty

Protection ofProtection ofLife & PropertyLife & Property

HydropowerHydropower RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem

State/LocalState/LocalPlanningPlanning

EnvironmentEnvironment

Flood MitigationFlood Mitigation& Navigation& Navigation

AgricultureAgriculture ReservoirReservoirControlControl

HealthHealth

SpaceSpaceOperationsOperations

TransportationTransportation

Fire WeatherFire Weather EnergyEnergy

OutlooksOutlooks

GuidanceGuidance

Threats Threats AssessmentsAssessments

ForecastsForecasts

WatchesWatches

Warnings & Warnings & Alert Alert

CoordinationCoordination

Fore

cast

Lea

d Ti

me

Fore

cast

Lea

d Ti

me

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Communicating Threats Severe Weather

Polygon Polygon EliminatesEliminatesFalse Alarm Area False Alarm Area

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Communicating Threats Hurricanes

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Communicating Threats Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

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Communicating Threats Urban Flooding - Gaston

August 30, 2004August 30, 2004

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Communicating ThreatsIndices

• Today– Wind Chill Index– Heat Health Index

• Tomorrow– Tornado F-scale Revision– Winter Storm Index?

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Seamless Suite of ProductsNational Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

• Focuses NWS Meteorologist on Focuses NWS Meteorologist on MeteorologyMeteorology

• Allows Private/Public Sector to Access Allows Private/Public Sector to Access Data Base for Their Own ApplicationData Base for Their Own Application

• Timeframe: FY 2003 - 2005Timeframe: FY 2003 - 2005

Beyond 2005, Working Toward a Beyond 2005, Working Toward a Complete Seamless 4-D DigitalComplete Seamless 4-D Digital• ObservationsObservations• AnalysesAnalyses• ForecastsForecasts• Uncertainty InformationUncertainty Information• Outlooks, Watches, WarningsOutlooks, Watches, Warnings

Gridded Gridded Forecast Forecast DatabaseDatabase

TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%.

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Summary of NDFD Grid Readiness

• Operational status on December 1– Max Temperature– Min Temperature– PoP 12

• Conditionally ready for operational status – Improvements are necessary before declaring these grids operational– Temperature– Dewpoint– Weather

• Not ready for operational status– QPF– Snow amount– Sky cover– Waveheights– Wind direction and speed

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On December 1, 2004, portions of the NDFD will become an official NWS product. Specifically, the NWS has determined that 3 of the initial 12 experimental elements will be declared official. These three official elements include: • Maximum temperature • Minimum temperature• Probability of precipitation PoP12

This represents an initial operating capability IOC for NDFD. The NWS expects to continue to improve the reliability, accuracy, consistency, and timeliness of the grid elements after NDFD IOC. Until the NWS completes backup server upgrades on March 1, 2005, users may experience service delays on rare occasions.

The nine remaining elements from the original set will retain their experimental status while they are improved and evaluated. Users will be given 30 days notice when an element moves from experimental to official status. The NWS will announce by December 15, 2004, which additional elements will be transitioned to official NWS products on January 15, 2005.

IssuePublic Information Statement

(September 16, 2004)

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NDFD element review– Comparison to recommended product transition

criteria• Spatial Consistency• Timeliness• Completeness

– Assessment of NDFD verification scores• Forecast error• Forecast bias

– Subjective look at grid quality• Appearance• Other issues

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NDFD Error Scores

MAE andBrier Scores CONUS August 2004

MaxT

MinT

PoP

QPF

Sky

Snow

Temp

Dew

Wave

WDir

WSpd

Wx

NDFD Day 1-3

2.75 2.94 .117 3.23 3.36 0.76 38.52

4.04

MOSDay 1-3

2.66 2.65 .115 2.71 2.87 33.79

3.12

NDFD Day 4-7

4.19 4.17 .129 4.48 4.71 59.76

5.10

MOSDay 4-7

3.92 3.72 .129 3.86 4.16 n/a n/a

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NDFD Bias Characteristics

CONUS2004

MaxT

MinT

PoP

QPF

Sky

Snow

Temp

Dew

Wave

WDir

WSpd

Wx

NDFD Day 1-3

good good n/a + variance late in day

good good n/a slight + bias

n/a

MOSDay 1-3

good good n/a good good n/a good n/a

NDFD Day 4-7

good good n/a + variance late in day

good n/a strong + bias at night

n/a

MOSDay 4-7

good good n/a good good n/a n/a n/a

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Element Summary Review

NDFD element

Spatial Consist-ency

Timeli-ness

Complete-ness

Error Scores

Bias Character-istics

Subjective Factors

Current Readiness

Official

Max T good good good good good good high 12/1/2004

Min T good good good good good good high 12/1/2004

PoP good good good good good marginal high 12/1/2004

QPF good poor marginal

unknown unknown poor low

Sky good marginal

marginal

unknown unknown poor low

Snow good good good unknown unknown poor lowTemp good poor margina

lmarginal poor marginal medium

Dew marginal

poor marginal

marginal good marginal medium

Wave marginal

poor poor incomplete

incomplete

poor low

WDir marginal

marginal

good marginal n/a poor low

WSpd good marginal

good marginal poor poor low

Wx good good good unknown n/a marginal medium

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Background Material

– Border Consistency Maps– Timeliness Maps– Completeness Maps– NDFD Error Charts– NDFD Bias Charts– Example NDFD Images

• Ones suitable for framing• Ones to hide in the attic

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Border Consistency

Max Temp 97%Max Temp 97%

Min Temp 97%Min Temp 97%

PoP12 97%PoP12 97%

QPF 97%QPF 97%

Snow Amt 99.82%Snow Amt 99.82%

Sky 97%Sky 97%

Criteria >= 90%Criteria >= 90%

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Border Consistency

Temperature 95%Temperature 95%

Dewpoint 91%Dewpoint 91%

Wave Height 92%Wave Height 92% Wind Direction 91%Wind Direction 91%

Wind Speed 99.62%Wind Speed 99.62%

Criteria > = 90%Criteria > = 90%

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Timeliness

MaxT 98%MaxT 98%

MinT 99%MinT 99%

PoP12 98%PoP12 98%

QPF 92%QPF 92% Snow Amt 97%Snow Amt 97%

Sky 95%Sky 95%

Criteria >= 95% WFOs Criteria >= 95% WFOs 90% of the time90% of the time

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Timeliness

Temperature 92%Temperature 92%

Dewpoint 90%Dewpoint 90%

Wave Height 78%Wave Height 78% Wind 94%Wind 94%

Criteria >= 95% WFOs Criteria >= 95% WFOs 90% of the time90% of the time

Weather 97%Weather 97%

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Completeness

MaxT 97%MaxT 97%

MinT 98%MinT 98%

PoP12 97%PoP12 97%

QPF 97%QPF 97%

Snow Amt 99.82%Snow Amt 99.82%

Sky 93%Sky 93%

Criteria >= 95% WFOs Criteria >= 95% WFOs 95% of the time95% of the time

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Completeness

Temperature 97%Temperature 97%

Dewpoint 96%Dewpoint 96%

Wave HeightWave Height 85%85% Wind 97%Wind 97%

Criteria >= 95% WFOs Criteria >= 95% WFOs 95% of the time95% of the time

Weather 97%Weather 97%

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NDFD Error ChartsMax Temp

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NDFD Error ChartsMin Temp

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NDFD Error ChartsPoP12

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NDFD Error ChartsTemperature

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NDFD Error ChartsDewpoint

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NDFD Error ChartsWind Speed

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NDFD Bias ChartsTemperature

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NDFD Bias ChartsDewpoint

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NDFD Bias ChartsWind Speed

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Example NDFD Images some good ones

• Saturday morning in Northern Rockies– Maximum Temperature– PoP12– Sky Cover– Wx– Temperature– Dewpoint– QPF– Snow Amount

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Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies

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Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies

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Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies

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Example NDFD Images Saturday morning in Rockies

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Example NDFD Images some not so good ones

• Clouds by zone• Uncoordinated QPF• Daily battle with dewpoints• Uncoordinated Wave Height• Wind Speed during Ivan• Weather by zone• Misconfigured WFO grids• Missing Grids

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Example NDFD image Clouds by zone

Congruent day 1 forecastCongruent day 1 forecast Less congruent day 4 forecastLess congruent day 4 forecast

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Example NDFD imagesUncoordinated QPF

Inconsistent forecastInconsistent forecast Same forecast issued 3 hours laterSame forecast issued 3 hours later

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Example NDFD Images Daily battle with dewpoints

Dry in Davenport and NashvilleDry in Davenport and Nashville Humid in Davenport and NashvilleHumid in Davenport and Nashville

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Example NDFD Images Uncoordinated wave height

Coordination glitches during big eventsCoordination glitches during big events

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Example NDFD ImagesWind speed during Ivan

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Example NDFD Image Weather coverage by zone

Impressive with minor exception in MichiganImpressive with minor exception in Michigan

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Example NDFD Images Misconfigured WFO grids

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NDFD Example Images Missing grids

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Summary

• First 3 Grid Elements official December 1• Monthly trends show gradual improvement• NWS working on improving methodology,

developing better QA smarttools, sharing best practices