13.02, Wennersten — Lecture on global perspectives on energy

transcript

Global perspective on energyRenewables

Wind powerHydro power Solar power Thermal surfaceThermal geoBiomass

Non RenewablesOil Coal Natural gas PeatNuclear

Ronald Wennersten/KTH2

Non renew

Energy in figures

Energy in figures - Consumption

Per capita energy consumption of different parts of the world in relation to China

1,0014,16

6,886,80

4,880,481,04

0 5 10 15 20

United States

Western Europé

Former SU and Eastern Europé

India Dev. Parts of the world as a

Energy in figures – energy intensity

Energy intensity = energy use per 1$ of gross productEnergy use relative to economic output

200USA

Former Soviet and Eastern Europé

Canada

World as a whole

China as Ref

Energy intensity ofdifferent countries

Predicted energy sources• Gas and oil predicted to run out, but coal is plentiful. Giving CO2

emissions for a far future.

• Climate change (CO2, CH4, N2O, etc)• Other pollutants from fossil fuel combustion • Ecological damage from hydroelectric dams• Problems associated with nuclear cycle• . . .

Climate Change – from transport, power generation, heating…

Environmental issues related to energy

Assumption of technology improvements:

# Improved efficiency of fossil fuel energy

# Nuclear

# Renewables

Required to stabilize CO2 level in atmosphere at 550 ppm:# Innovative technologies currently non-commercial # Carbon capture storage# Hydrogen production/advanced transport# Solar # Biotechnology

Emissions reduction - role of technology

Strategies for tackling the problems related to GHG and Climate Change

The problems cannot be solved only by replacing fossile fules with renewable resources

There have to be actions taken on many levels:Technology Economy (Fees ….)Political (Legislation…)Social (Change in peoples behaviour …

These actions have to be coordinated in a cost effective way

The cost for action lower than cost of consequences

Future Energy Options

• Short to mid-term : Enhanced use of natural gas, coal, nuclear?

• Long-term : Renewable energy resources

What about nuclear power?

Nuclear power Coal power

Which energy system has the lowest risk?

Spreading of radioactive material

Nuclear power Coal power

Which energy system has the lowest risk?

Natural gas

Least polluting fossil fuel

Greater portions of proved and potential reserves of NG outside the Middle East

NG’s worldwide energy share over the next 20 years:2.7-3.2% average growth rate of> 40% greater than that of oil

Renewable energy

Hydro powerWind power Solar power Thermal surfaceThermal geo Biomass

Hydro power

• - Large effects on ecosystemsthrough dams and running water

• - Conflicts through change of land use• + Control of flooding

Wind power

Where both wind speed and land areabundant Most competitive with conventionally generated electricity Annual wind power growth rate: >10%Intermittency

Solar power

PhotovoltaicProduction of hydrogen

Solar thermal Integration in low exergy systems

Photovolitic efficiency• Theoretical 29 %• Laboratory 23 %• Commercial product 15 %

Geothermal

0.3 % of global electricity consumption

> 5% of national electricity consumption –only six countries (Iceland, Philippines, New Zealand, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Kenya)

Capital intensive

Biomass

Direct heating Boiler fuel to generate electricityLiquid fuel for transport CO2-neutral ?Uncomplicated technologyRelatively low costConflicts?

• Use of wasted low grade energy sources from the power plants for heating and coolingBetter efficiency for the power plants

• Less heat lossesDrop in toxic air emissions

COGENERATION

Some examples from Sweden

The 15 national objectivesReduced Climate ImpactClean AirNatural Acidification OnlySafe Radiation EnvironmentA Protective Ozone LayerA Non-Toxic EnvironmentSustainable ForestsA Good Built EnvironmentA Magnificent Mountain LandscapeA Varied Agricultural LandscapeZero EutrophicationFlourishing Lakes and StreamsGood-Quality GroundwaterA Balanced Marine Environment,Flourishing Coastal Areas and ArchipelagosThriving Wetlands

Fertilisation of energy forest

Heating plant

Bio-fuels

Waste waterTreatment plant

Waste products (sludge)Ash

Municipalities

Hammarby Sjöstad, Stockholm

• One of the biggest housing developments in Europe

• Twice as good as conventional projects• Energy: 60kWh/m², only renewable.• Transport: Reduction 20%. Bus,

underground, bicycle, walking 80% of total.

• Waste: Reduction 20%. Harmful and hazardous waste reduced 50%. 60% of nitrogen and phosphorus back to farming.

• Water: Reduce to half. 95% of phosphorus to farming. Local storm water treatment.

• Building material: Metals, gravel from raw material reduced to half. Reduction of harmful substances with 70%.

Create good examples!

Waste management -state of management in SwedenHousehold waste (2004)

Incineration47%

Landfill9%

Biological treatment

Recycling33%

Hazardous0.6%

Comparison of Two Methods of Energy Efficient Houses

Low Exergy Systems

• Systems that can utilize low valued energy in heating and cooling, where the media temperature is close to required indoor air temperature or through use of heat pumps

• S Surface Heating and Cooling• A Air Heating and cooling• G Generation / Conversion of

Cold and Heat• T Thermal Storage• D Distribution

Communities

Heat pumps for domestic heating and cooling

260 MW heating and 48 MW cooling

•30 years of financing of development of heat pumps and systems in co operation between authorities, universities and companies

•Demonstration systems

”Energy collected from all heat pump installationsin Sweden, would pay for all public funding ofheat pump research since 1975, in just four days”

EFF-SYS, Final report

Global trends

Total dependence on fossile fuels

The industrialized society is built upon the transformation of natural resources into different goods. This transformation has been possible only through the use of relatively cheap fossil fuels.

Today we are facing a new situation where these cheap fossil fuel resources are becoming scarcer.

What is the problem?

• Climate change

• Social instability

• International conflicts

Energy and Globalization

• Globalization has stimulated the use of energy even more. Oil and gas demand are high and growing, so much so that the world consumes twice as much oil as is found today

• Countries like China and India have ever growing energy needs, the world does and will continue to depend primarily on oil and gas for our energy requirements now and into the foreseeable future

Decreasing supplies

• The situation is now that the places with the greatest demand can't supply their own needs

• Over the next few decades, oil and gas production in the North Sea, North America and China are expected to fall, or rise too little to keep pace with demand. Only a few places have surplus reserves — chiefly the Middle East, Africa and Russia.

• Decision-makers in the energy industry, government, and international agencies thus face difficult decisions. How will the supply-demand problem be resolved?

Globalization solves the problem?

• One possibility is a continuation of globalization. According to this vision, free markets will ensure that investment capital and fossil fuels alike are distributed efficiently.

Deglobalization?• At the other extreme is a future that

involves more regulation and confrontation

• Rather than free markets, anxious governments will decide how capital and energy supplies are apportioned

• Rather than globalization, this would be "deglobalization" with a continuation of the ‘old ways’ of bi-lateral political agreements securing point to point long term supply lines and markets

Global competition

• We can see many signs of such a development today. China is very active in developing bi-lateral cooperation in Africa to secure supplies of energy and mineral resources as well as gaining control of transport routes e.g. directly pipe crude from the Middle East to Xinjiang

• United States has a global strategy for securing energy supplies where the Middle East has a central role as well as controlling transport routes e.g. the Strait of Malacca.Lately they have also announced increased activity in Africa

• The vast oil and natural gas reserves in the Caspian Sea basin sparked the interest of various international actors beginning in the early 1990s

• Today, development of mechanisms (such as the transnational Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline) to bring these resources to the market continues with involvement of various stakeholders—from multinational oil corporations to the governments of former Soviet states

Global competition

• Russian energy group Gazprom has recently stated in a press release that they will develop the Shtokman field without foreign partners. The Shtokman gas condensate deposit lies in the Barents Sea, in the north of Russia.

• The Shtokman gas will instead be piped to European markets. The Gazprom change in policy came as a total surprise for large multinational oil companies who had expected to get possibilities to take part in the exploration of the vast gas field.

Global competition - Nationalism

Honestly I don´t how toget this burning in all eternity

And is it reallysocially acceptable?

Are there sustainable energy systems?