Post on 19-Dec-2015
transcript
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Delmarva Hurricane Evacuation Study (HES)
Jason F. Miller, P.E.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers,
Philadelphia District
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The Basics
• What is a Hurricane?A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, which is a generic term for a low pressure system that generally forms in the tropics. The cyclone is accompanied by thunderstorms and, in the Northern Hemisphere, counterclockwise circulation of winds near the earth's surface.
• Hurricanes are categorized according to the strength of their winds using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. A Category 1 storm has the lowest wind speeds, while a Category 5 hurricane has the strongest. These are relative terms, because lower category storms can sometimes inflict greater damage than higher category storms, depending on where they strike and the particular hazards they bring. In fact, tropical storms can also produce significant damage and loss of life, mainly due to flooding.
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The Basics (cont.)
• What is Storm Surge?Storm surge is the difference between the observed water level and the normal astronomical tide; generally brought about by a very large meteorological disturbance (hurricane).
• Wind is the primary cause of storm surge by inducing currents in the direction of the wind.
• Surface current in turn produces subsurface currents. When these currents meet the sloping continental shelf, the water level rises (surge).
• Slower moving hurricanes tend to create deeper subsurface currents, and therefore may create higher surges than fast moving systems.
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tHURRICANE EVACUATION
STUDY
To provide information to emergency management officials that will be useful in hurricane evacuation decision-making and implementation.
Program Objective
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t • HAZARDS ANALYSIS
• VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
• BEHAVIORAL SURVEYS
• SHELTER STUDIES
• TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS
HES Components
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• QUANTIFY SURGE HEIGHTS FOR INTENSITIES AND TRACKS OF HURRICANES CONSIDERED TO HAVE A REASONABLE METEOROLOGICAL PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE WITH STUDY AREA
TIDAL FLOODINGTIDAL FLOODING
SlightlySlightlyDatedDatedPhotoPhoto
HAZARDS
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ASSESS POTENTIAL EFFECT OF INLAND (RAINFALL) FLOODING HAZARDS ON EVACUATIONS
RIVERINE FLOODINGRIVERINE FLOODING
HAZARDS
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tSea, Lake and Overland Surges from
Hurricanes
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SLOSH Data
• MEOW
Maximum Envelope Of Water: Based on hypothetical storm track and intensity
• MOM
Maximum Of Maximums: Composite of MEOWs for each category storm
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tSLOSH MODEL CAT 3 MAXIMUM SURGE SLOSH MODEL CAT 3 MAXIMUM SURGE
ELEVATIONSELEVATIONS
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DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL (DEM)DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL (DEM)
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Digital Elevation ModelDigital Elevation Model(ground elevations)(ground elevations)
Resultant Inundation AreaResultant Inundation Area
Surge Height GridSurge Height Grid
Ground elevationssubtracted fromsurge heights to determine areasSubject to flooding
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• IDENTIFY AREAS, POPULATIONS IDENTIFY AREAS, POPULATIONS AND FACILITIES THAT ARE AND FACILITIES THAT ARE VULNERABLE TO HURRICANE VULNERABLE TO HURRICANE SURGE AND WINDSURGE AND WIND
VULNERABILITY ANALYSISVULNERABILITY ANALYSIS
11STST STEP: INUNDATION MAPPING STEP: INUNDATION MAPPING22NDND STEP: ASSEMBLE CENSUS AND RELATED DATA STEP: ASSEMBLE CENSUS AND RELATED DATA
AND ASSEMBLE HIGHWAY DATAAND ASSEMBLE HIGHWAY DATA
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Vulnerability Zones
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TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONESTRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES- Used to support traffic modelingUsed to support traffic modeling
EVACUATION ZONESEVACUATION ZONES - Used operationally by emergency - Used operationally by emergency
management officialsmanagement officials
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYANALYSISANALYSIS
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Assumptions regarding public responseAssumptions regarding public response
- Percentage of the population that will evacuate under Percentage of the population that will evacuate under a range of hurricane scenarios and/or in response to a range of hurricane scenarios and/or in response to evacuation advisoriesevacuation advisories
- Timing of public responseTiming of public response
- Number of vehicles that evacuees will useNumber of vehicles that evacuees will use
- Probable Destinations (shelter, with local friends, local Probable Destinations (shelter, with local friends, local hotel/motel, out-of-county, out-of-state)hotel/motel, out-of-county, out-of-state)
- Responses of touristsResponses of tourists
Behavioral Analysis – Behavioral Analysis –
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•I lived here for 35 years and…I lived here for 35 years and…•I’ve really never thought about it.I’ve really never thought about it.•What about my pets?What about my pets?•A Category 1 isn’t too bad.A Category 1 isn’t too bad.•I don’t live on the beach.I don’t live on the beach.•I don’t have reliable transportationI don’t have reliable transportation
BEHAVIORAL SURVEYSBEHAVIORAL SURVEYS