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[Year]
APRAC-10
Hewlett-Packard Company
[Pick the date]
ISMS-2015
1st Fortnight of June
Andhra Pradesh Space Applications Centre
(Planning Department, Government of Andhra Pradesh)
D.No: 3-6-438/1, 1st Floor, NASPUR House, Himayathnagar, Hyderabad-500029
Phone: 040 27634506, FAX:040 27634507 web site : www.apsac.ap.gov.in
Integrated Seasonal Condition Monitoring System Andhra Pradesh
Cumulative Report up to 15th June, 2015
Ø Seasonal condition is categorised as “Normal” in 567 Mandals as on date 15th June, 2015.
Ø Seasonal condition is categorised as “Watch” in 103 Mandals as on date 15th June, 2015.
ØNellore district is excluded in the assessment and considered as "Normal" as it is covered during
North- East Monsoon.
INTEGRATED SEASONAL CONDITION MONITORING SYSTEM (ISMS)ANDHRA PRADESH
Ø 346 Mandals out of 670 (52 %) of Andhra Pradesh state
received excess rainfall and 101 Mandals (15 %) of the
state received normal rainfall up to the 15st June, 2015.
Ø 126 Mandals (19%) and 94 Mandals (14%) have received
deficit and scanty rainfall, respectively.
Ø 03 Mandals of Andhra Pradesh were faced “no rain”
situation upto 15th June 2015. 1. Ichchapuram
(Srikakulam), 2. Gudluru (Prakasam), 3. Kallur (Kurnool)
Rainfall 01st June to 15th June, 2015Fortnightly seasonal condition of AndhraPradesh upto 1st fortnight of June, 2015
Cumulative Seasonal Condition Up to 15th June, 2015
0
100
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400
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1st Fortnight of June
No. o
f Man
dals
Watch
Normal
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SCIENTIFIC TEAM
A P S A C
Dr. T. Narendra babu Scientist-SE
Project Manager
Sudheer Kumar Tiwari Scientist-SC
Associate Project Manager
M. Lakshmi Prasad Rao Resource Analyst
A P S D P S A. Ramkrishna Nagaraju Assistant Executive Engineer
B. Shiva Kumar Young Professional
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Figures
Figure 1 : Flow chart ......................................................................................................................... 3 Figure 2: Deviation of Rainfall in percent w.r.t. Normal from June 01to June 07, 2015 ...................... 5 Figure 3: Deviation of Rainfall in percent w.r.t. Normal from June 08 to June 15, 2015 ..................... 5 Figure 4: Deviation of Rainfall in percent w.r.t. Normal from June 01 to June 15, 2015 ..................... 6 Figure 5: District wise deviation from normal crop sown area as on date 10-06-2015 ......................... 7 Figure 6: District wise deviation from normal crop sown area as on date 10-06-2015 ......................... 8 Figure 7: NDVI - MODIS (250m): First fortnight of June 2015, 2014 and 2010 ................................. 9 Figure 8: NDWI- MODIS (250m) First fortnight of June 2015, 2014 and 2010 ................................ 10 Figure 9: NDVI deviation-MODIS (250m) for the First fortnight of June w.r.t. 2010 ....................... 11 Figure 10: NDWI-MODIS (250m) deviation for first fortnight of June w.r.t. 2010 ........................... 11 Figure 11: Drought Assessment based on ISMS Criterion for the first fortnight of June, 2015 .......... 12
CONTENT
S.No. Description
Page
1 Background and Rationale 1 2 Data used, Indicators and Methodology 2 3 Present status for the first fortnight of June, 2015 4 3.1 Rainfall and other weather data 4 3.2 Crop Sowing Progress 7 3.3 Vegetation Index 9 3.4 Surface Wetness Indicators 10 3.5 The deviation of NDVI and NDWI w.r.t. 2010 11 3.6 Drought situation of Mandals 12 3.7 List of Mandals under Watch condition 13
4 Conclusions 13 5 References 14
Annexure
I
Dissemination of the report
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1
1. Background and Rationale
The Government of Andhra Pradesh (GoAP) uses the following criterion for declaration of Drought.
1. Mandatory Condition - Rainfall deficiency of 25% (>1000 mm rainfall area) and 20% (999 to
750 mm rainfall area) and 15% (<750 mm rainfall area)
2. Minimum of two condition to be fulfilled out of following three
a) Reduction in cropped areas of 50% and above under all principal crops.
b) Reduction in yields(50% and above),in case of high input oriented crops ground nut,
Bengal gram, hybrid sunflower yields may 40% reduction or above.
c) Dry spells and its impact on crop damages.
In Andhra Pradesh, an extensive weather observation network of 1169 Automatic Weather Stations
(AWS), 59 soil moisture meters, 86 global radiation meters is established. Andhra Pradesh State
Development Planning Society (APSDPS) monitor the data and maintains the networks. Figure 1 and
Figure 2 showing the location of AWS and river gauge stations in Andhra Pradesh.
Integrated Seasonal Condition Monitoring System (ISMS): The objectives of the ISMS are
• Concurrent monitoring of seasonal conditions using remote sensing, extensive weather
network data and continuous ground truth.
• Develop an early warning (monitoring and forecasting) of Agriculture drought using suite of
indicators, which will help to increase drought preparedness, and identify and implement
appropriate Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures.
• Early Warning to the Districts/Mandals.
The details of the classification of agricultural situation are given in Table.1.
Table. 1. Classification of Agricultural situation
June - June
Normal • Agricultural situation is normal
Watch • Progress of Agricultural situation is slow • Ample scope for recovery • No external intervention needed
Alert
• Very slow progress of agricultural situation • Need for intervention. • Develop and implement contingency plans to
minimise loss
September - October
Mild drought • Crops have suffered stress slightly
Moderate drought
• Considerable loss in production. • Take measures to alleviate suffering
Severe
• High risk Significant reduction in crop yield • Management measures to provide relief
2
2. Data used, Indicators and Methodology
2.1 Data used
The details of data used under project is discussed in Table-2
Table. 2. Data source and indicators
Data source Product Indicators
MODIS (250/500m) Surface reflectance NDVI & NDWI AWiFS Surface reflectance NDVI & NDWI
AWS • Daily/ Cumulative rainfall • Rainfall deviation • Dry spells
Agriculture Department Weekly sowing progress
District/Madal wise sown areas deviation from normal.
Irrigation Department Reservoir levels/ Water release data
Command area Mandals under canal irrigation
2.2 Methodology
The methodology used by Andhra Pradesh Space Applications Centre (APSAC) to assess and monitor
the agricultural conditions and situation in the state at district and Mandal level uses MODIS 16 days
composite (250 m) and IRS Resourcesat-2 AWiFS data. The Indian Remote Sensing satellite (IRS)
Resourcesat-2 having AWiFS (Advanced Wide Imaging Field Sensor) payload collects data in two
spectral bands 0.62-0.68µm (red) and 0.77-0.86 µm (near infrared) with spatial resolution of 56 m and
ground swath of 740 Km with a revisit period of 5 days. Along with this MODIS 250/500m satellite
data provide spectra, radiometric and spatial resolutions products for better monitoring of the
agriculture. The combination of AWiFS and MODIS is useful to increase the frequency of images
The different activities carried out through ISMS commence with acquisition of MODIS (250m) and
AWiFS (56m) satellite data. The satellite data being processed and NDVI and NDWI indices are
developed. Based on these indices deviation with respect to normal year (2010), VCI calculation and
Mandal wise Statistics are derived. The agricultural situation is assessed incorporating Rainfall
deviation, Command and non command areas, dry spell, CRIDA software outputs, Drought prone
border line areas, Crop sown area progress and ground truth along with Satellite derived indices. The
flow chart of methodology is shown in Figure 1.
3
Figure 1 : Flow chart
NDVI & NDWI NDVI & NDWI
Satellite Data
MODIS AWiFS
VCI Deviation w.r.t. Normal year
% Rainfall
Dry Spell
Jun to Aug
Septo Oct
Jun to Aug
Septo Oct
Normal watch Alert
Normal Mild
Moderate Severe
Normal watch Alert
Normal Mild
Moderate Severe
Composite Fortnightly Report
Ground Truth
Weekly Sowing
Reservoir Level
Water Release
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3. Present status up to 15th June, 2015
3.1. Rainfall and other weather data
The status of rainfall as on 15th June, 2015 shown in Table 3. 94 mandals out of 670 mandals
(14%) of the Andhra state received Scanty rainfall and 126 mandals out of 670 mandals (19%)
received deficit rainfall. Out of total, 101 mandals (15%) and 346 mandals (52%) are under
Normal and Excess category respectively and also 3 Mandals of Andhra Pradesh were faced "No
rain" up to first fortnight of June, 2015.
Table 3: Rainfall status as on 15th June, 2015
Sl. No District Name No. of Mandals
Scanty Deficient Normal Excess No Rain
Grand Total
1 Anantapur 9 17 18 19 63 2 Chittoor 7 21 14 24 66 3 East Godavari 64 64 4 Guntur 1 7 11 38 57 5 Kadapa 12 14 14 11 51 6 Krishna 5 7 38 50 7 Kurnool 25 12 11 5 1 54 8 Nellore 20 18 2 6 46 9 Prakasam 12 20 9 14 1 56
10 Srikakulam 7 6 8 16 1 38 11 Visakhapatnam 1 5 2 35 43 12 Vizianagaram 1 3 30 34 13 West Godavari 2 46 48
State Total 94 126 101 346 3 670
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The % deviation of Actual & Normal rainfall received up to 15th June 2015 shown in Fig. 2, 3, 4
respectively.
Figure 2: Deviation of Rainfall in percent w.r.t. Normal from June 01to June 07, 2015
Figure 3: Deviation of Rainfall in percent w.r.t. Normal from June 08 to June 15, 2015
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Figure 4: Deviation of Rainfall in percent w.r.t. Normal from June 01 to June 15, 2015
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3.2. Crop Sowing Progress
Upto 10th June, 2015. Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, Visakhapatnam, East Godavari, Guntur,
Prakasam, Nellore, Kadapa, Ananthapur and Kurnool districts are showing high negative
deviation (<-50%) with respect to normal crop sown area. West Godavari, Krishna and Chittoor
districts are showing low negative deviation (>-25% to <0%) with respect to normal crop shown
area (Table 5). The total area sown in the state is 0.96 Lakhs ha as against the normal sown area
2.12 Lakhs ha (deviating -54.98 %) as on date 10th June 2015. The deviation map is shown in
Figure 5 and the deviation graph is shown in Figure 6.
Figure 5: District wise deviation from normal crop sown area as on date 10-06-2015
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Table 5: District Wise Crop Sowing Area - Upto 10-06-2015
District As on 10/06/15
Deviation % Normal (ha) Actual (ha)
Srikakulam 12306 1797 -85.40
Vizianagaram 22939 8911 -61.15
Visakhapatnam 34907 16578 -52.51
East Godavari 7700 0 -100.00
West Godavari 15497 14568 -5.99
Krishna 15229 14600 -4.13
Guntur 6658 1000 -84.98
Prakasam 13191 5740 -56.49
P.S.Nellore 30406 9401 -69.08
Chittoor 24385 20035 -17.84
Kadapa 6434 980 -84.77
Anantapur 14847 0 -100.00
Kurnool 8078 2097 -74.04
Total 212577 95707 -54.98
Source: Department of Agriculture, Andhra Pradesh State
Figure 6: District wise deviation from normal crop sown area as on date 10-06-2015
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3.3. Vegetation Index
The NDVI (Normalized Difference of Vegetation Index) for the first fortnight of June 2015 shown and also compared with 2010 and 2014 in figure 10.
The year 2010 is treated as a normal year.
Figure 7: NDVI - MODIS (250m): First fortnight of June 2015, 2014 and 2010
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3.4. Surface Wetness Indicators
The map indicates status of moisture availability in soil as well as in crop canopy for first fortnight of June, 2015 and year 2010 is treated as a normal
year. NDWI situation for the year 2014 & 2015 w.r.t. 2010 are shown in the Figures 8.
Figure 8: NDWI- MODIS (250m) First fortnight of June 2015, 2014 and 2010
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3.5. The deviation of NDVI and NDWI w.r.t. 2010 are shown in the figures 9 and 10.
Figure 9: NDVI deviation-MODIS (250m) for the First fortnight of June w.r.t. 2010
Figure 10: NDWI-MODIS (250m) deviation for first fortnight of June w.r.t. 2010
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3.6. Drought situation of Mandals:
3.6.1. Composite Criteria
For the first fortnight of June, 2015. The drought situation in the state is assessed using different
indicators viz. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Rainfall deviation in mandals of Andhra
Pradesh. All indicators were composited for analysis and mandals were categorised into Normal,
and Watch. Mandal wise analysis for the first fortnight of June, 2015 indicated “Normal”
agricultural situation in 567 mandals (85% of total mandals) and agricultural situation is
categorized under “Watch” in 103 mandals (15% of total mandals). Nellore district is excluded in
the assessment and considered as "Normal" as it is covered during North-East Monsoon period.
Spatial distribution of mandals categorized under Normal and Watch are shown in Figure 11.
Figure 11: Drought Assessment based on ISMS Criterion for the first fortnight of June, 2015
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3.7. List of Mandals (district wise) under watch condition
District Name (Mandals)
Watch (Mandal name)
Anantapur
Penukonda, Dharmavaram, Ramagiri, Tadimarri, Putlur, Gummagatta, Kanekal, Uravakonda, Pamidi, Peddapappur, Yadiki, Peddavadugur, Vidapanakal, D.Hirehal ( 14 )
Chittoor
Palasamudram, Nagari, Pulicherla, Nindra, Pichatur, Yerpedu, Renigunta (07)
Guntur
Nuzendla, Prathipadu, Duggirala, Guntur, Bollapalle (05)
Kadapa
Sri Avadhutha Kasinayana, T Sundupalle, Nandalur, Ramapuram, Lakkireddipalle, Pendlimarri, Vallur, Thondur, Lingala, Simhadripuram, Porumamilla, Kalasapadu, B.Kodur, Brahmamgarimattam, Kondapuram (15)
Krishna
Kankipadu, Penamaluru, Ibrahimpatnam (03)
Kurnool
Pattikonda, Tuggali, Peapally, Owk, Kolimigundla, Sanjamala, Banaganapalle, Koilkuntla, Dornipadu, Rudravaram, Sirvel, Nandyal, Panyam, Bethamcherla, Veldurthi, Krishnagiri, Devanakonda, Aspari, Alur, Holagunda, Pedda Kadubur, Yemmiganur, Kodumur, Kallur, Orvakal, Midthur, Atmakur, Kothapalle, Nandikotkur, Kurnool, Gudur (31)
Prakasam
Singarayakonda, Ulavapadu, Gudluru, Pamur, Zarugumilli, Veligandla, Komarolu, Giddalur, Racherla, Bestawaripeta, Kanigiri, Janakavarampanguluru, Thallur, Mundlamuru, Darsi, Tarlupadu, Markapur, Donakonda, Pullalacheruvu (19)
Srikakulam
Ichchapuram, Kaviti, Kanchili, Sompeta, Vajrapukothuru, Nandigam, Gara, Hiramandalam (08)
Vishakhapatnam
Dumbriguda (01)
4. Conclusions
Summary of seasonal conditions for the First fortnight of June, 2015 are as follows:
Ø 346 Mandals out of 670 (52 %) of Andhra Pradesh state received excess rainfall and 101
Mandals (15 %) of the state received normal rainfall up to the 15st June, 2015.
Ø 126 Mandals (19%) and 94 Mandals (14%) have received deficit and scanty rainfall,
respectively.
Ø 03 Mandals of Andhra Pradesh were faced “no rain” situation upto 15th June 2015. 1.
Ichchapuram (Srikakulam), 2. Gudluru (Prakasam), 3. Kallur (Kurnool)
Ø Mandal wise analysis for the first fortnight of June, 2015 indicated “Normal” agricultural
situation in 567 Mandals and 103 mandals under .
Ø Nellore district is excluded in the assessment and considered as "Normal" as it is covered
during North-East Monsoon.
Ø NDVI assessment can be useful to assess the direct/indirect relation of ground water
availability.
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5. References
GoI Drought Manual, http://drought.unl.edu/portals/0/docs/international/GovtIndiaDroughtManual.pdf
GoAP Drought Criterion, http://www.seri.ap.gov.in/gos/09012013DM_MS1.PDF
Kogan FN, 1995, Droughts of late 1980s in the USA as derived from NOAA polar orbiting satellite data, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 76: 655-668
Malingreau JP, 1986, Global vegetation dynamics: Satellite observations over Asia, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 7: 1121-1146
Season And Crop Coverage Report, Kharif - 2015 Department of Agriculture, Andhra Pradesh
Tucker CJ and Chowdhary BJ, 1987, Satellite remote sensing of drought conditions, Remote Sensing of Environment, 23: 243-251
ANNEXURE I
DISSEMINATION OF THE REPORT
1. Hon'ble Chief Minister's office
2. Chief Secretary to Andhra Pradesh Government
3. Principal Secretary Planning
4. Principal Finance Secretary
5. Commissioner Disaster Management
6. Commissioner Agriculture
7. Director DES
8. Director NRSC
9. APSAC and APSDPS web site (http://APSAC.ap.gov.in/ and http://apsdps.gov.in/ )