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transcript
d l l2010 Residential & Commercial
Electric SAE Update
Oleg Moskatov
iEric Fox
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© 2009, Itron Inc.
2010 SAE UPDATE
2010 SAE Model UpdateBased on the EIA 2010 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) gy ( )
AgendaOverview of the Residential Electric SAE Model Parameters
Updated Saturation and Efficiency Projections
Impact on Residential Usage TrendsImpact on Residential Usage Trends
Overview of the Commercial Electric SAE Model Parameters
Updated End‐Use Intensity Trends
Implications for Commercial Sales
Alternative SAE Model Specification
© 2009, Itron Inc.
Alternative SAE Model Specification
Residential SAE Update 2010
Changes from 2009
Slightly higher equipment efficiency projections in most end‐uses
Higher building shell efficiency projections
Little to no change in saturation projections in most end‐uses
EIA higher overall efficiency projections reflect expected i f F d l ffi i di d ARRA di
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impact of Federal efficiency spending and ARRA tax credits
Residential Appliance Efficiency Trends
EIA provides efficiency projections for space heating, water heating and cooling equipment expressed in terms of energy
t t it f i toutput per unit of energy input
For other equipment/appliances unit energy consumptionFor other equipment/appliances, unit energy consumption (UEC) is used as a proxy for efficiency
Calculated as: Type
St kEnergyUse
UEC =TypeStock
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Reflects regional differences in appliance stock age distribution and long‐term price impacts
Efficiency Trends
For most end‐uses, little change from 2009Effi i j i i h h d li h l hi h
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Efficiency projections are either unchanged or slightly higher
Exceptions: water heating, televisions, and miscellaneous
Water Heating Efficiency
Lower average water heating efficiency projection is partlyLower average water heating efficiency projection is partly due to lower projected electricity prices
Cheaper electricity reduces the rate of adoption of more
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efficient equipment, such as heat pump water heaters
TV and Miscellaneous UEC
Initial higher TV usage growth reflects stronger penetration of large TVs.penetration of large TVs. This flattens out in the later years with stronger efficiency projections
Changes in Miscellaneous UEC reflects further calibration to RECS 2005 Miscellaneous use increases slightly faster than in 2009
© 2009, Itron Inc.
than in 2009
Structural Index
The structural index is a key component in the calculation of heating and cooling indices that allows us to capture effects of changes in square footage and building envelope efficiency gains
⎞⎜⎛ TypeSat
⎟⎠⎞
⎜⎝⎛
⎟⎠
⎞⎜⎜⎝
⎛
××= ∑Type
Type
Typey
y
Type
Typeyy
EffSat
EffSat
WeightIndexStructuralHeatIndex
05
05
0505 aSurfaceArencyIndexellEfficieBuildingShaSurfaceArencyIndexellEfficieBuildingSh
IndexStructural yyy ×
×=
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Building Shell Efficiency Projections
EIA projects stronger efficiency gains as a result of more
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p j g y gstringent building codes and regulations and increases in the ARRA efficiency tax credit caps
Saturation Trends
End‐use stock saturation is calculated by dividing i t t k b th b f h h ldequipment stock by the number of households:
tockEquipmentSuseholdsNumberOfHotockEquipmentS
Saturation TypeType =
Resulting saturations trends are combined with efficiency/UEC and structural projections to create end‐use indicesend use indices
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Saturation Trends
For most equipment types there is little to no change from
© 2009, Itron Inc.
For most equipment types, there is little to no change from 2009 projections
Heat Pumps and Water Heaters
Heat pump market share is somewhat lower as groundlower as ground‐source heat pumps gain market share
Lower saturation j i flprojections reflect
lower cost of natural gas relative to electricity – gas space
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y g pand water heating gain share
Ground‐Source Heat Pumps
In 2010, ground‐source heat pumps have been added to the residential electric spreadsheets
EIA expects higher rate of penetration of this technology
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EIA expects higher rate of penetration of this technology throughout the country compared with last year
Furnace Fans
In 2010 furnace fans were separated out of the electric heat endthe electric heat end‐use
Increasing furnace f UECfan UEC projections reflect increasing home size
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size
15
Furnace Fans
Furnace fan loads are allocated to months based on normal
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heating degree days
16
End‐Use Indices
Saturation, efficiency and structural projections are used to build end‐use indicesused to build end‐use indices
⎟⎠
⎞⎜⎜⎝
⎛Type
Typey
EffSat
⎟⎠⎞
⎜⎝⎛
⎠⎜⎝××= ∑
Type
Type
yType
Typeyy
EffSat
EffWeightIndexStructuralxEndUseInde
05
05
End use indices calculated for heating, cooling, and base usebase use
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Heating & Cooling Indices
Stronger building shell efficiency, combined with lower electric heatlower electric heat saturation results in lower electric heating usage
Lower cooling usage is largely due to slightly stronger building shell gains and adoption of more efficient cooling systems
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systems
Base Use Index
Sharp decline in base use in 2013 reflects new lighting standards
Little base‐use energy growth through 2020
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Residential Average Use Forecast
Average use is relatively flat through 2020 – consistent with AEO projections of residential energy consumption
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p j gy pSlightly lower electricity price projections mitigate some of the impact of stronger efficiency projections
Residential UEC Forecasts 2008‐2010
Long‐term UEC projections have trended down over the last three years
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y
Forecast reflects further expectations of end‐use and thermal shell efficiency gains
Commercial 2010 Update
Changes from 2009
Increased projected efficiency, largely through incorporation of new standards and revised modeling assumptions
This translates into lower energy intensity (use per square foot) projections
An alternative commercial sales model based on energy intensity and floor space forecasts has been included in the MetrixND commercial project file
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Efficiency ‐ Heating
BTU output / BTU input
Stronger efficiency projections are the common theme throughout all end‐uses
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Heating projection reflect new standards incorporated for commercial boilers
Efficiency ‐ Refrigeration
Cubic feet per minute / BTU input
New standards were also adopted for commercial refrigeration equipment, including refrigerators and walk‐in
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freezers
Efficiency ‐ Lighting
Lumens / Watt
Stronger lighting efficiency projection as a result of new fluorescent and reflector lamp standards
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Efficiency –NEMS Modeling Assumptions
In addition to incorporating recent efficiency standards, the following model assumptions implemented in 2010 alsofollowing model assumptions implemented in 2010 also impact efficiency projections:
Building retirement parameters were updated leading to a greater share of “new” floor space that has more efficient equipmentequipment
Hurdle rate distribution were also updated leading to more p gpurchases of efficient equipment
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Energy Intensity ‐ Heating
kWh per square foot
2010 energy intensity projections reflect, for the most part, stronger efficiency projections
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Energy Intensity ‐ Refrigeration
kWh per square foot
Lower energy intensity projections across all the primary commercial end‐uses
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commercial end uses
Energy Intensity ‐ Lighting
kWh per square foot
Though lower usage projections, lighting still accounts for the largest share of commercial energy usage
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largest share of commercial energy usage
Energy Intensity – Office/PC
kWh per square foot
The dramatic drop in growth rate in the Office‐PC energy intensity comes largely as a result of revised assumptions of
i f LCD i
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penetration of LCD monitors
Energy Intensity – Miscellaneous
kWh per square foot
Other (non‐PC) office equipment and miscellaneous energy intensity projections are largely unchanged from 2009
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Energy Intensity 2008‐2010
kWh per square foot
Average commercial energy intensity projections declined every year since 2008 largely due to worsening economic conditions and stronger efficiency assumptions
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g y p
0.2% average annual growth in energy intensity
Square Footage
Little change in square footage projections between 2009 and 2010 forecast
1 2% l i i i l f
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1.2% average annual increase in commercial square footage
Sales Forecast
Combining intensity and square footage forecast results in 1.4% commercial sales growth
This compares with 1 6% sales growth in the 2009 forecast
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This compares with 1.6% sales growth in the 2009 forecast
Commercial Models
In 2010, two new tabs were added to the commercial SAE spreadsheets:
Intensity tab ‐ Contains end‐use intensities
FloorSpace tab – Contains total regional floor space in square feet
Intensity and square footage projections are combined and used in an additional template model in the commercial MetrixND project file
© 2009, Itron Inc. 35
Alternative Model Specification
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Alternative Model Specification
© 2009, Itron Inc. 37
Questions?
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REMAINING 2010 WORKSHOP SCHEDULE AND REGISTRATIONAustralian Energy Forecasting Workshop – Melbourne, Australia – October 19‐20F d l f Sh T d H l F i S Di CA O b 27 29Fundamentals of Short‐Term and Hourly Forecasting – San Diego, CA – October 27‐29
OTHER FORECASTING MEETINGS3rd Annual Australian Forecasting User Group Meeting – Melbourne, Australia – October 18g p g ,2010 Itron Users’ Conference – Orlando, FL – October 17‐19
For more information and registration: www.itron.com/forecastingworkshopswww.itron.com/forecastingworkshops
Contact us at: 1.800.755.9585, 1.858.724.2620 or forecasting@itron.com
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