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8/3/2019 2011 11 09 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
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MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 info@migbank.com www.migbank.com
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
MA
S-TERMMULTI-DAY
L-TERMMULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/POSITION
ENTRYLEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD SHORT 3 1.3655 1.3520/1.3140/1.2860 (Entered 09/11/2011) 1.3840
GBP/USD Buy limit 3 1.5840 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400 1.5740
USD/JPY Exited at 77.70.
USD/CHF SHORT 3 0.9015 0.8900/0.8550/0.8250 (Entered 07/11/2011) 0.9130
USD/CAD Buy Stop 3 1.0250 1.0360/1.0480/1.0670 1.0050
AUD/USD SHORT 2 1.0570 1.0010/0.9710 (Entered 01/11/2011) 1.0470
GBP/JPY Buy limit 3 122.70 124.10/126.00/127.32 121.30
EUR/JPY SHORT 3 106.45 105.45/104.00/100.76 (Entered 09/11/2011) 107.50
EUR/GBP Look to sell.
EUR/CHF Sell stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230
GOLD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.
SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 35.6880
DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT09 November, 2011
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been h it the stop will be moved to the entry
point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is
published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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Resuming sharp reversal into 1.3140.
EUR/USD is resuming its sharp reversal from key overhead resistance
(primarily an important 2 year trend-line). The dramatic move has confirmed
the emotionally charged bull-trap that we had anticipated, which has been
driven by recent positive EU News.
Key support is now holding at 1.3653 (18th Oct low). A sustained
confirmation beneath here will unlock further downside scope into 1.3146
(Oct swing low) and that all-important psychological level at 1.3000.
Further pressure is also weighing from broad risk-related proxies. The euro
currently shares a high correlation of 0.85% with the S&P500 which is now
falling sharply from its recent multi-week highs.
Inversely, USD Index has turned back higher above its long-term 200-day
MA. The bulls are likely to recapture the recent 6-month highs near 80.
Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are holding steady around their recent
spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely
remain strong and help resume the USD’s major bull-run from its historic
oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
Special Report: EUR/USD ˝A Fall From Grace˝ ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO
MIG Bank Webinar: “Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.”
US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 1.3655, Objs:1.3520/1.3140/1.2860, Stop: 1.3840
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
200-DMA (1.4104)
BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED
BREAKOUTS
UPTREND(2 YEARS)
EUR/USD (Daily)
BREAKOUTZONE
(1.4000)
SHARP REVERSALAT KEY RESISTANCE
TARGETS 1.3000 & 1.2870
+
-
USD INDEX(4 YEARS)
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL
+27% +19%
TRIGGER(15000)
COT LIQUIDITY
+10%SO FAR
3 STD ABOVEONE YEARAVERAGE
EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS
9
13
USD INDEX
200-DMA(75.72)
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNALS
BREAKOUT ZONE
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%
6 MONTHHIGH
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Further corrective downswing anticipated.
A break back over the 1.6167 high would lead us to remove the strategy
below from the report.
GBP/USD is rising very gradually in the hourly timeframe, however,
structure suggests that we are in the midst of a larger corrective phase, with
scope for a further swing lower to test the 1.5853 region, where a higher low
is favoured to form, for a fresh swing back towards 1.6167.
We are mindful of the general range bound nature of this market in the
medium-term but note that near-term structure is suggestive of further gains,
back to 1.6167.
While above 1.5632 further strength is favoured. However, if this region
fails to contain the current corrective phase, then the bias will turn negativeagain.
Sterling is expected to stay stronger then most, should that the US Dollar
enter into a strengthening phase.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 1.5840, Objs: 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400, Stop: 1.5740.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Probability now favours retracement to pre-intervention levels.
Exited at 77.70. USD/JPY is edging lower, with the probability now favouring
another price retracement back to pre-intervention levels and potentially
even a new post world war record low beneath 75.35.
Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying
pressure remains overcrowded as everyone in the market continues to try
and be the first to call the market bottom.
This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic price spike through
psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move
would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders.
The medium / long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a
major long-term 40 year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection
pints to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained
move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.
Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term
technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark™ exhaustion signals, within
the ending diagonal pattern, which is part of the long-term cycle.
Please select the link below to review our MIG Bank webinar on USD/JPY.
This is a featured update to our previous Special Report
USD/JPY’s Long-Term Structural Change
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Exited at 77.70.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
83.30
USD/JPY(Daily1 YEAR)
QUAKE
SHOCK!
POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)
POSTG7
MOVE (I)HIGH
82.00
PIR II
80.24
POSTBOJ
MOVE (II)HIGH
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL AHEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW 75.35
POSTBOJ
MOVE (III)HIGH
MONTHLY DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL
USD/JPY Weekly(2007 – 2011)
ENDINGDIAGONAL
PATTERNBREAKOUT
TARGET (85-79)
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A corrective phase is now favoured.
USD/CHF tested the 61.8% retrace of the 0.9316-0.8568 fall near 0.9000,
having met 0.9068 thus far. This was followed by a break under hourly
trend-line support, which may now signal the start of a corrective phase totest the region close to 0.8900 initially. Focusing on the hourly timeframe,
structure favours a further swing lower.
Medium-term structure is suggestive of a re-test of the zone close to 0.8242
ahead of a possible return to 0.9316. However, should EUR/CHF reach the
1.2000 level again, then movement in USD/CHF may be affected by the
efforts of the SNB to maintain the floor in EUR/CHF. Back under 0.7712 is
required to change the medium-term bullish bias.
A sustained push back over 0.9083 will likely target a return towards therecent high at 0.9316.
Safe haven flows may yet intensify into the Swiss Franc as Italian
government bond yields push higher despite last week’s ECB rate cut. See
our EUR/CHF page for more on this.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 3 at 0.9015, Objs: 0.8900/0.8550/0.8250, Stop: 0.9130.
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Bulls hold gains above psychological 1.0000 level.
USD/CAD’s short-term price activity remains positive, following the sharp
bullish reversal from the psychological 1.0000 level (prior trading range).
Positive momentum needs to push above 1.0264 and 1.0400 to rebuild the
potential major upside reversal higher above the old resistance level at
1.0673 (August high & Congestion zone).
Only a sustained close beneath here will unlock bearish setbacks into the
long-term 200-day MA at 0.9817 and 0.9726 (31st
Aug low).
A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger
recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the
rate’s ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.
EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-monthtrading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high),
which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern.
CHF/CAD is retesting its support nearby the 200-day MA at 1.1314,
following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention).
The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy Stop 3: 1.0250, Objs:1.0360/1.0480/1.0670, Stop: 1.0050
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD
USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD (Weekly)
CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680
OPENS LARGERRECOVERY
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL
USD/CAD (Daily)
August High(1.0673)
200-DMA(0.9817)
200-DMA(1.3841)
MAJOR RESISTANCE
50% (1.3570)
61.8% (1.3379)
EUR/CAD (Daily)
REVERSALPATTERN
CHF/CAD (Daily)
200-DMA(1.1314)
50%
(1.1488)
61.8% (1.0893)
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Sharp setbacks weigh.
AUD/USD’s sharp setbacks continue to weigh. The move was triggered
from key resistance at 1.0765 (01st Sept high) and is now holding beneath
the 200-day MA (1.0415).
A sustained move below here is likely to mount downside pressure on the
rate’s multi-year uptrend.
The bears need to confirm beneath 1.0322 (26th
Oct low) and 1.0188 (18th
Oct low). A break here will unlock sharp setbacks into 1.0000.
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand dollar.
The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds
beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and 1.2100.
The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now
trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 83.11.
Near-term support continues to hold at 77.63 (18th
Oct low). A break here
will resume downside scope into 76.70 and signal further unwinding of risk
appetite.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 1.0570, Obj: 1.0010/0.9710, Stop: 1.0470
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
200-DMACAPSBEARMKT
AUD/NZD(Daily)
KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100
200-DMA
(83.12)
13
38.2% (76.70)
61.8%
(68.47)
50% (72.58)
AUD/JPY(Daily)
DEMARK™ SELL SIGNAL
RESUMPTION OF
BREAKDOWNADDS TO
RISK AVERSION
AUD/USD (Weekly)
38.2%
(0.9144)
50% (0.8546)
61.8% (0.7947)
3 YEARUPTRENDIS UNDER
PRESSURE
STRUCTURALLEVEL
KEYZONE
AUD/USD(1 YEAR)
DEMARK™ SELL SIGNALS
200-DMA(1.0413)
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Consolidates in a tight hourly range.
GBP/JPY continues to consolidate within a tight hourly range of
approximately 100 pips, with a breakout now sought. Given the nature of
the rise last week, which was triggered by a series of clustered stops, there
remains an expectation of a return to the 122.38/65 region, ahead of further
strength.
Bigger picture a rise towards 129.00/130.00 is possible, given the daily
structure present since 116.84. A push back under 121.39 is needed to
negate this positive structure.
Assuming that further short-term strength can be realised, a lower high
would be anticipated close to 129.00, near the 200 day moving average
which is currently at 128.73. Thus the region between 129.00 and 130.00
would be attractive for renewed short positioning. In the meantime, a higher
low may form close to the old 122.38/65 ceiling, with a short-term swing
back into the 129.00-130.00 region in mind.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 122.70, Objs: 124.10/126.00/127.32, Stop: 121.30
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 09 November, 2011
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Possible bear flag forming in the daily timeframe.
EUR/JPY formed a corrective structure in the hourly timeframe and has
subsequently broken under 106.50. In fact in the daily timeframe, the recent
consolidation also appears as a bearish flag, warning of a substantial fall
ahead. This would then open up 104.75 again and potentially lower.
However, an earlier push back over 108.25 will be suggestive of a more
substantial recovery higher from 104.75, with a return to 111.60 then
possible.
Should the region near 112.50 be met a lower high would be favoured to
form in that region, close to the 200 day moving average, currently at
112.49.
A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the outlookbullish.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3 at 106.45, Objs: 105.45/104.00/100.76, Stop: 107.50
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 09 November, 2011
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0.8548 contains the downside for now.
EUR/GBP continues to trade just above long-term trend-line support from
0.8068. A push under 0.8548 is expected which will immediately target the
0.8530/31 double bottom that we have discussed in recent reports. A
sustained break under 0.8530 will weaken the longer-term outlook
considerably, ending the general range bound trade that we have witnessed
thus far. Scope would then be seen for a return back down to 0.8068, over
time. In fact, should stresses in the Euro Zone intensify then it is possible
that Sterling may gain safe haven status.
Failure to break the floor of the medium-term range will warn of a return
back towards 0.8831 where short positioning would become attractive
again.
A move back over 0.8960 is required to neutralise our mild bearish bias, in a
generally rangebound environment.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Look to sell if a break under 0.8530 can be realised.
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Initial supply seen close to 1.2474 high.
EUR/CHF has remained strong particularly in light of the movement in
Italian government bond markets, where a minor inversion in the yield curve
is beginning to form, with 5 year yields trading at 6.914% and 10 year yields
at 6.774%, at the time of writing. This can only add to the potential for
funding problems to occur with the large amount of debt that needs to be
rolled over in the next 6 months. Also, as mentioned before, it highlights the
inability of the ECB to contain sovereign debt yields by simply lowering the
base rate. This may lead to a renewed desire for a safe haven, with
downside pressure returning to EUR/CHF.
Initial resistance has been seen close to the recent high at 1.2474, with
scope for a further correction, towards 1.2300 initially. Should a re-test of
the 1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this
would warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the
probability of a return to this level.
In any case, strong resistance is anticipated should this rate reach the
1.2500 zone. The recent failure to maintain trade above the 50 week
moving average is also noted.
Time will tell whether or not the SNB will be able to hold back the possible
flow of funds into Swiss Francs that may occur if further stresses lead to yet
higher yields in Italian government bonds.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.
EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Breaking above $1760 is positive for the short-term.
Gold remains fragile after its dramatic 20% price fall, which helped confirm
the extreme overbought conditions (marked by DeMark™ indicators). This
also timed a key cycle peak, ahead of that all-important $2000 glass-ceiling.
However, short-term price activity is building constructively higher above key
level at 1760. A sustained move above here would open moves into 1844.
Speculative (net long) flows remain a concern having recently breached a
key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold
positions.
There is heightened risk of a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly
close beneath $1600 and $1554-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not
been breached in 3 years!
A number of “bargain hunting” trend-followers will be watching this
benchmark “line in the sand” for repeat support or a potential big squeeze
lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still
offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:
Special Report “Gold’s mountainous peak at risk…beneath $1600” VIDEO
Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.
GOLD
Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
TRENDCHANNEL (12 YEARS)
I
RISK ZONE III
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530
UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000
26%
34%
20%SO FAR
25%
II
COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS
OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG
GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT
IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS
200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!
DEMARK™ SIGNAL WARNED OF GOLD’S OVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS
BREAKOUT
$1704
$1600
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
$1532
DOUBLETOP
$1760
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 09 November, 2011
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Key support at $26.0700.
Silver’s latest price capitulation is a painful reminder to the investment
community that lightning can strike twice. Note, this marks the second time
silver has crashed, following its 30% fall last April.
The move was triggered following a DeMark™ exhaustion sell signal and
has now wiped out almost 50% of silver’s prior gains (taken from Silver’s all-
time high at 49.7900) which was last seen in 1980.
Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This
allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed
buying interest.
Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the
multi-week / month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%
Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silver’s long-
term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual
resumption higher.
Continue to watch the gold-silver “mint” ratio which has now accelerated
higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880
SILVER
Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold /Silver “mint” ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
BULLMARKET
FROM1999
Silver Monthly (since 1980)
13
38.2% (32.3135)
50% (26.9150)
61.8%
(21.5165)
I
II
OVER 30 YEAR BASE PATTERN
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARK™ SELL SIGNAL
13 YEAR LEVEL
UNWINDING 67% FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY
Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio
KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)
DEMARK™ SELL SIGNALS
Silver (Daily)
200 DMA(36.5125)
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 09 November, 2011
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Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,
including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material InterestsMIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or
have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or
distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will bemoved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to
buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act
of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal
use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK
makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions
expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes
financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be
made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before
making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no
guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the
content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
LEGALTERMS
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 09 November, 2011
www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical Strategistr.william@migbank.com
MIG BANKinfo@migbank.comwww.migbank.com
14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 NeuchâtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00
Bjioy KarTechnical Strategistb.kar@migbank.com
CONTACT
Howard FriendChief Market Strategisth.friend@migbank.com