Charter Trust Company
2011 Economic Outlook:
A Global Symphony
The Economy
is preparing to take off
We’re out of the battle.
And moving into the … ?
Positives:
• Profits
Positives:
• Profits
• Productivity
Positives:
• Profits
• Productivity
• Policy
The result has been a
record level of
corporate cash
Downers
• Debt
• Deflation
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
Core CPI Inflation
Downers
• Debt
• Deflation
• Depression
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
Core CPI Inflation
With the D’s and the P’s at
odds:
With the D’s and the P’s at
odds:
• Volatility
S&P 500 Index 2000-2010
With the D’s and the P’s at
odds:
• Volatility
• Crises
S&P 500 Index 2000-2010
With the D’s and the P’s at
odds:
• Volatility
• Crisis
– Danger
– Opportunity
Equities – Volatility
Equities – Volatility
MSCI Index 1985 - 2010
Emerging Market Growth
Emerging Market Growth
China: Three Gorges Dam
Brazil: Bovespa Index
US Market: Growth
US Gross Domestic Product
European Market: Volatility
European Market: Volatility
Germany: StrongNetherlands: StrongFrance: ModerateItaly: ModerateFinland: ModerateSpain: WeakPortugal: WeakIreland: WeakGreece: Crisis
Short rates are stuck.
Long rates are too low.
Rates will rise, we just don’t
know when.
Decoupling is over
The World Economy Is One
“We must hang together, or we
will hang separately.”
Triad Stability
USEurozoneJapan
Together: 60% of World Economy