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2011/2012 Winter and Spring Temperature and
Precipitation Outlook
Southern Plains Drought Assessment and Outlook Forum
Fort Worth, TXNovember 29, 2011
Victor Murphy
Year to Year Precipitation Variability a Given in Texas
Data Courtesy of SCIPP
Oklahoma has Seen an Entire Generation of Green!
Data Courtesy of SCIPP
New Mexico has also seen a Generation of Green!
Data Courtesy of SCIPP
But, Against this Backdrop of Wetness Lurks La Nina
Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling
Scatter Plots also Show Strong ENSO Correlation for Southern
Plains
Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling
La Nina Composites
Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling
But, 2010-2011 an Outlier for Drought Severity
Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling
La Nina: Déjà vu all Over Again
Moderate Strength La Nina Expected to Peak in a Month
or Two.
NOAA/NCEP Coupled Forecast Series
Model Output for Precipitation
AMJ
MJJ
JJAFMA
JFM
DJF Precipitation Forecast from NWS Climate Prediction
Center (CPC)
Odds 3 to 1 in favorof drier than normalvs. wetter thannormal.
MAM Precipitation Forecast from NWS Climate Prediction
Center
Odds 2 to 1 in favorof drier than normalvs. wetter than normal.
November-March are Individually Among the 5 Driest Months of theYear in Texas. Significant Drought
Relief this Time of Year Very Unlikely during La Nina.
Data Courtesy of SCIPP
Little Hope for Relief During the Winter in OK also.
Data Courtesy of SCIPP
Recharge Window Even Smaller in NM.
Data Courtesy of SCIPP
12 month Percent of Average Precipitation through the end
of October 2011.
Through April, Drought Most Likely to Persist in southern
NM and western TX.
Probability of Precipitation Required to end Current Drought Conditions in 6
Months.
New Mexico Spring Precipitation by
Tercile
1.85”2.55”
Texas Spring Rainfall by Tercile
6.5”
8.25”
Oklahoma Spring Precipitation by
Tercile
9.5”
11.5”
Louisiana Spring Rainfall by Tercile
Temperature Trends During JJA During the past 100 Years
Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling, ESRL
Does October-June Precipitation Foretell Expected
Summer Rainfall? No.
Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling
Summer 2011 Forecast from CPC.
Takeaway Messages• La Nina is returning for the 2011-2012 cold
season.• Thus, through May, odds of below normal
precipitation are 2 to 3 times greater than above normal.
• Any significant drought improvement not likely until April at earliest, when spring rainfall begins.
• Summer temperatures likely warmer than normal, but not likely to emulate the historic heat of last summer.
Questions??Victor MurphyNWS Southern Region Climate Service Program Manager817-966-4216 x 130Victor.Murphy@noaa.gov
In General, Precipitation has been Increasing in the
Southern Plains
Data Courtesy of Marty Hoerling, ESRL