2013 Florida Legislative Overview

FLORIDA ADVOCACY DAYS LEGISLATIVE BRIEFING

TRINITY UNITED METHODIST CHURCH

April 8, 2013

Presented by Ted Granger, President

United Way of Florida, Inc.

1

Money - Post War U.S. RecessionsPeak to Trough %

Length of Recession in

MonthsReal GDP

Industrial Production

Payroll Employment

2007 to 9-2009 23 -4.00% -17.88% -5.47%

2001 to 11-2001 8 -0.40% -5.80% -2.10%

1990 to 3-1991 8 -1.30% -4.30% -1.50%

1981 to 11-1982 16 -2.70% -10.30% -3.20%

1980 to 7-1980 6 -2.20% -6.90% -1.30%

1973 to 3-1975 16 -3.10% -12.80% -2.80%

1969 to 11-1970 11 0.00% -7.50% -1.40%

1960 to 2-1961 10 -1.60% -7.80% -2.30%

1957 to4-1958 8 -3.80% -12.70% -4.00%

1953 to 5-1954 10 -2.40% -9.10% -3.30%

1948 to 10-1949 11 -1.80% -7.70% -4.40%

Avg. for prev. recessions 10 -1.90% -8.50% -2.60%

22

Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions, August

3Source: Calculated RISK Finance & Economics, September 2012

3

Florida Economy

PopulationPopulation

44

Florida Economy - Population

Source: Bureau of Economic & Business Research, UF, May 11, 20125 5

Florida Economy - Population

Source: Bureau of Economic & Business Research, UF, June 20116 6

Florida Economy - Population

Avg. Ann. Pop. Grwth318,000

77

Florida Economy – Population Growth by Age Group

8Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012

8

Florida Economy

Economy Looking UpEconomy Looking Up

99

Home Sales Continue ImprovingExisting Single-Family Homes – 11/2011-2012

+24.4% US - +14.5% 8 months consecutive increase

+14.1% - Median Sales Prices $154,000

+10.6% - Average Sales Price $223,301

Condo Sales +18.3% +20.2% - Median Sales Prices

10Source: Florida Realtors, December 2012; January 2013 10

Home Sales

11Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012 11

Tourism Rocks!

New Tourism Records 2012 Total Tourism Spending – Record Total State Sales Tax Revenues from

Tourism Number of Persons Employed

12Source: Visit Florida, December 2012

12

National Jobs Lost & RecoveredU.S. Recession

Job LossesRegained

Jobs

Low-Wage ($7.69 - $13.83 / $15,995 - $28,766)

21% 58%

Mid-Wage ($13.84 - $21.13 / $28,787 - $43,950)

60% 22%

High-Wage ($21.14 - $54.54 / $43,971 - $113,443)

19% 20%

13Source: National Employment Law Project, The Low-Wage Recovery and Growing Inequality, August 2012.

13

Florida Budget

Florida BudgetFlorida Budget

1414

General Revenue Outlook ($ millions) FY 2011-12 FY 2012-13

Total Funds Available 25,216.00 26,070.10

Total Estimated Expenditures

27,726.70 31,119.30

Ending Balance -2,510.70 -5,049.20

15Source: Legislative Budget Commission, September 2011

15

General Revenue Outlook ($ millions) FY 2013-

14*FY 2014-

15FY 2015-

16

Total Funds Available**

27,853.7 28,306.5 29,541.3

Total Estimated Expenditures

27,416.9 27,253.0 27,947.3

Ending Balance 436.8 53.5 594.0

16

•Updated December, 2012•All GR – recurring, nonrecurring, roll-over

Source: Legislative Budget Commission, Fall 2012 Report 16

No Budget Shortfall???

2013-2014 Budget: “Flat”

Flat is good!

Budget surplus: first in 5 years1717

Florida GR History

18Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012 18

Florida GR Budget 2012-2013

Source: The Florida Legislature191

9

Florida GR Budget 2012-2013Program Area (Section of General

Appropriations Act) Dollars Percent

Education 12,689.5 51.2%

Human Services 7,673.1 31.0%

Judicial Branch 331.4 1.3%

Criminal Justice and Corrections 3,136.0 12.7%

Natural Resources/ Environment/ Growth Mgmt./ Transportation

225.6 0.9%

General Government 710.8 2.9%

Total 24,766.5 100.0%

Source: The Florida Legislature202

0

Florida Budget 2012-2013

Source: The Florida Legislature212

1

Florida Budget 2012-2013Program Area (Section of General Appropriations Act) Dollars Percent

Education 20,286.4 29.0%

Human Services 29,912.8 42.7%

Judicial Branch 446.2 0.6%

Criminal Justice and Corrections 4,191.2 6.0%

Natural Resources/ Environment/ Growth Mgmt./ Transportation 11,329.8 16.2%

General Government 3,870.2 5.5%

Total 70,036.7 100%

Source: The Florida Legislature222

2

Florida GR Revenue Sources

Source: FL Revenue Estimating Conf.; 2012 Florida Tax Handbook232

3

2013 Legislative Session Overview

Thanks!Thanks!

2424