Post on 26-Jul-2015
transcript
North American Research & Forecast Report
INDUSTRIAL MARKET OUTLOOKQ4 2014
Key Takeaways > The North American vacancy rate decreased in Q4 2014 by 22 basis points (bps) to 6.8%. In the U.S., vacancy fell 24 bps to 7.2%. The Canadian vacancy rate remained flat at 4.0% for the second straight quarter.
> Net absorption was robust at 70.7 million square feet (MSF) in Q4, an increase of 5.9 MSF over Q3. U.S. absorption totaled 67 MSF, the highest quarterly figure during the current cycle.
> The ongoing strength of the market has induced an increase in development. Construction volume accelerated in both the U.S. and Canada during the quarter, totaling 178.2 MSF, up from 155.9 MSF in Q3 2014. The absorption-new supply ratio decreased slightly to 1.6:1.0 from 1.7:1.0 in Q3 2014, though it is still above the 1.4:1.0 ratio posted in Q2 2014. The ratio is still high compared with the 2004-2007 expansion period, when the ratio was 1.3:1.0. Still, this metric is important to monitor as supply escalates going forward, particularly given the inevitable deceleration of absorption.
> Solid economic and e-commerce growth have helped inland distribution and intermodal markets move past the recovery phase and into the expansion part of the cycle. Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus and Houston joined Los Angeles, Oakland and Seattle on the list of markets with favorable supply/demand dynamics.
> A tentative five-year contract agreement was reached in late February between West Coast dockworkers and ship and port owners. However, even with the current agreement, clearing the backlog of imports and returning to the normal pace of trade flow is expected to take several more months. Longer-term, increased contingency planning on the part of retailers could continue to bolster tenant interest in Gulf and East Coast ports such as Houston, Savannah and Charleston.
> The strength of the industrial market has prompted robust investor activity. According to Real Capital Analytics, North American transaction volume involving deals of at least $10 million reached $12.8 billion in Q4 2014, an eight-quarter high. The average cap rate decreased to 7.1% in Q4 2014, the lowest since Q2 2008. The end of 2014 marked the second year of consistently healthy capital markets activity, climbing back toward pre-downturn levels.
Cyclical and Structural Factors to Drive Industrial Market Growth in 2015Andrea Cross National Office Research Manager | USA
Summary Statistics, Q4 2014 North America Office Market U.S. CANADA
NORTH AMERICA
Vacancy Rate 7.2% 4.0% 6.8%
Change from Q3 2014 (Basis Points)
-24 -6 -22
Absorption (Million Square Feet)
67.0 3.6 70.7
New Construction (Million Square Feet)
42.7 2.8 45.4
Under Construction (Million Square Feet)
158.4 19.8 178.2
ASKING RENTS (USD/CAD) PER SQUARE FOOT PER YEAR
Average Warehouse/Distribution Center
$5.08 $8.13 N/A
Change from Q3 2014 1.3% 0.2% N/A
Market IndicatorsRelative to prior period
U.S. Q4 2014
U.S. Q1 2015*
CANADA Q4 2014
CANADA Q1 2015*
VACANCY
NET ABSORPTION
CONSTRUCTION
RENTAL RATE**
* Projected, relative to prior period** Warehouse rents
Sq. Ft. By RegionAbsorption Per Market (SF)q3 '14 - q4 '14
8,900,000
4,450,000
890,000-890,000
-4,450,000
-8,900,000
4.5 billion
2.25 billion
450 mil
Occupied Sq. Ft.
Vacant Sq. Ft.
U.S. Industrial Economic Indicators
GDP
Q4'14 2.2% (second estimate)
Q3'14 5.0%, up from 4.6% in Q2 2014
ISM: Jan-15 PMI 53.5, down 1.6 pctg. pts. from Dec-14
RAIL TIME INDICATORS: AAR.ORG
Total Railcar Traffic + 3.4% YOY in Jan-15
Intermodal Traffic + 0.9% YOY in Jan-15
• Intermodal traffic in Jan-15 averaged over 251K containers per week; highest Jan avg. in history.
2 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
The North American industrial market experienced another year of expansion in 2014 alongside improvements in consumer confidence, hiring, homebuilding and e-commerce, providing momentum as 2015 began. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the economy grew for the 68th straight month in January. The manufacturing sector increased for the 20th straight month, with 14 of 18 surveyed industries reporting growth. Additionally, rail and intermodal traffic continues to improve per the Association of American Railroads’ (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Industrial demand and capital market conditions illustrate the strength of these drivers. Net absorption is still generously above new supply, but the margin is narrowing, which means that supply in select markets may be more difficult to absorb as the year goes on. However, despite its upward trajectory, new supply remains historically low, which should allow for continued market tightening.
Industrial Economic Indicators A wide swath of industrial economic indicators posted strong results through the fourth quarter of 2014, boding well for real estate conditions this year. Real GDP growth for the fourth quarter came in at an annual rate of 2.2% (second estimate) with an upward revision to a 5.0% annual rate for 3Q 2014 growth. GDP growth was led by personal consumption expenditures. Consumption should continue to rise as wage expectations increase with accelerated hiring. Additionally, the household debt service ratio is near record lows, which is expected to allow for more consumer spending. The auto and housing industries, from which many industrial tenants are drawn, both are generating optimism for industrial demand. Light vehicle sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.6 million units in January, the 11th consecutive month in which the SAAR exceeded 16 million. Analysts expect monthly auto sales to average around a 17 million SAAR in 2015 for annual growth of roughly 3%.
Housing starts remain significantly below long-term levels but reached a post-recession high of more than one million in 2014. We
expect starts activity to increase at a moderate rate again in 2015, driven by only modest interest rate increases and faster-paced hiring and wage growth. Alongside this improvement, enthusiasm should build among homebuyers and homebuilders alike, giving housing industry tenants (homebuilders, plumbing and HVAC suppliers, landscapers, home goods retailers, etc.) the confidence to take on more warehouse space.
The ISM’s Report on Business for January 2015 was largely positive for industrial real estate demand. The overall economy expanded for the 68th consecutive month and the manufacturing sector increased for the 20th consecutive month, but in both cases, expansion has been slowing. The PMI composite index was 53.5, still at expansion levels, but down from 55.1 in December. The port slowdown accounted for much of the decline with raw materials industries (paper, wood) reporting logistical snags that created a glut of backorders. Still, many manufacturers reported healthy business conditions, a positive sign for a potential upsurge in the index in the medium term now that uncertainty with respect to the West Coast ports has been removed.
Finally, rail and intermodal traffic remains healthy according to the AAR’s Rail Time Indicators. In 2014, total rail and intermodal traffic increased by 4.5%, reaching its highest level since 2007. January started the new year at a brisk pace. Intermodal traffic rose by 0.9% year-over-year, reaching the highest-ever weekly average for January. January carload traffic was up 5.6% year-over-year with 18 of 20 commodity groups increasing traffic. Traffic is benefiting from the record $27 billion spent on capital and maintenance by U.S. railroads in 2014 with $29 billion in additional spending projected for 2015. The increased operations efficiency should promote more traffic, leading to more warehouse space demand.
North American Industrial Vacancy, Inventory & Absorption Q4 2014 | NA
*** - Q3-14 data displayed.
How would you characterize current industrial rents in your market?
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
11.1%11.1%
19.0%52.5%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
13.8% 11.7%100%
Midwest
Northea
stSou
thWest
Canad
aU.S.
N.A.
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter,didmost tenants Expand, Hold Steady or Contract?
44.4%
16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
Holding SteadyContract Expand N/A
13.8% 18.5% 56.9% 6.2%
16.7%
11.7%
8.3%
1.3%
3.9%
41.7%
22.1%
33.3%
53.2% 7.8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
U.S.
Canada
NorthAmerica
How would you characterize current industrial rents in your market?
N/A
DecliningBottoming
No Clear Direction
Increasing
Peaking
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 62.5% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%25.0% 30.4% 32.3%
75.0%
39.0%
100%
Northea
stSout
h
Midwest West U.S.
Canada N.A.
Provide a three month forecast for rents (relative to current quarter):
Up Same Down N/A
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
100%
Northea
stSout
hMidw
est West U.S.Cana
da
Provide a three month forecast for vacancy levels (relative to current quarter): Down Same Up
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
4.2%4.2% 13.8% 11.7%16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
44.4%19.0%
13.8%
11.7%
8.3%
4.6%
18.5%
41.7%
22.1%
56.9%
33.3%
53.2%
6.2%
16.7%
7.8%
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 65.2% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%
28.6%28.6%25.0%16.7%16.7%
30.4%4.3%4.3%
32.3%
13.8%13.8%
75.0%
16.7% 2.6%11.7%2.6%11.7%16.7%
39.0%
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Q4 Q1 2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2014
Q2 Q3 Q4
Vaca
ncy
%
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy %
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
Winnipeg, MBSaskatoon, SKHalifax, NS**
Victoria, BCToronto, ONRegina, SK
Ottawa, ON***Edmonton, AB
Waterloo Region, ONVancouver, BC
Montréal, QCCalgary, AB
-1.0 0.0 2.0 4.01.0 3.0
8.2
5.00.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0Millions
Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp
Millions
Savannah, GADallas-Ft. Worth, TX
Houston, TXLos Angeles, CAIndianapolis, IN
Los AngelesInland Empire, CA
Chicago, ILAtlanta, GA
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil.
12-Month Trailing Volume (left-axis)
Year-Over-Year % Change (right-axis)
52.5%
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
11.1%11.1%
19.0%52.5%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
13.8% 11.7%100%
Midwest
Northea
stSou
thWest
Canad
aU.S.
N.A.
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter,didmost tenants Expand, Hold Steady or Contract?
44.4%
16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
Holding SteadyContract Expand N/A
13.8% 18.5% 56.9% 6.2%
16.7%
11.7%
8.3%
1.3%
3.9%
41.7%
22.1%
33.3%
53.2% 7.8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
U.S.
Canada
NorthAmerica
How would you characterize current industrial rents in your market?
N/A
DecliningBottoming
No Clear Direction
Increasing
Peaking
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 62.5% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%25.0% 30.4% 32.3%
75.0%
39.0%
100%
Northea
stSout
h
Midwest West U.S.
Canada N.A.
Provide a three month forecast for rents (relative to current quarter):
Up Same Down N/A
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
100%
Northea
stSout
hMidw
est West U.S.Cana
da
Provide a three month forecast for vacancy levels (relative to current quarter): Down Same Up
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
4.2%4.2% 13.8% 11.7%16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
44.4%19.0%
13.8%
11.7%
8.3%
4.6%
18.5%
41.7%
22.1%
56.9%
33.3%
53.2%
6.2%
16.7%
7.8%
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 65.2% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%
28.6%28.6%25.0%16.7%16.7%
30.4%4.3%4.3%
32.3%
13.8%13.8%
75.0%
16.7% 2.6%11.7%2.6%11.7%16.7%
39.0%
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Q4 Q1 2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2014
Q2 Q3 Q4
Vaca
ncy
%
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy %
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
Winnipeg, MBSaskatoon, SKHalifax, NS**
Victoria, BCToronto, ONRegina, SK
Ottawa, ON***Edmonton, AB
Waterloo Region, ONVancouver, BC
Montréal, QCCalgary, AB
-1.0 0.0 2.0 4.01.0 3.0
8.2
5.00.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0Millions
Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp
Millions
Savannah, GADallas-Ft. Worth, TX
Houston, TXLos Angeles, CAIndianapolis, IN
Los AngelesInland Empire, CA
Chicago, ILAtlanta, GA
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil.
12-Month Trailing Volume (left-axis)
Year-Over-Year % Change (right-axis)
52.5%
3 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
Vacancy
Driven by the U.S. market, the North American vacancy rate decreased again in Q4. The U.S. vacancy rate fell by 24 bps to 7.2%, its lowest level in more than 10 years, while the Canadian vacancy rate remained at 4.0%. Since peaking at 11.2% in Q1 2010, the U.S. vacancy rate has declined by an average of 21 bps per quarter. Vacancy rates should continue to fall in the U.S. and Canada in 2015, but the rate of decline is likely to level off as the market tightens and new supply comes online.
All U.S. regions recorded occupancy gains in Q4 2014, demonstrating the breadth of the expansion. As in Q3, the West posted the lowest vacancy rate overall at 5.5%, while the Northeast posted the highest at 9.0% due to the challenge of persistently high vacancy in Boston and Washington, D.C. Vacancy in the West and Northeast declined by 33 bps and 14 bps, respectively. The 33 bps vacancy decline in the West was the largest of all regions, led by major markets such as Denver, Oakland, Seattle and San Jose. The Midwest (26 bps) and South (21 bps) also showed significant vacancy declines. Vacancy increased in four of the 10 Canadian markets reporting Q4 data, but with the exception of Waterloo, all of those 10 markets have vacancy rates at or below 6.0%. Regina (2.1%), Edmonton (3.4%), Toronto (3.8%) and Winnipeg (3.8%) ranked among the top 10 North American markets with the lowest vacancy rates.
Manufacturing At A Glance - January 2015
INDEXSERIES INDEX
(JAN 2015)
SERIES INDEX
(DEC 2014)
PERCENTAGE-POINT
CHANGEDIRECTION RATE OF
CHANGETREND*
(MONTHS)
PMI 53.5 55.1 -1.6 Growing Slower 25
New Orders 52.9 57.8 -4.9 Growing Slower 26
Production 56.5 57.7 -1.2 Growing Slower 29
Employment 54.1 56.0 -1.9 Growing Slower 20
Supplier Deliveries 52.9 58.6 -5.7 Slowing Slower 20
Inventories 51.0 45.5 5.5 Growing From Contracting 1
Customers' Inventories 42.5 44.5 -2.0 Too Low Faster 2
Prices 35.0 38.5 -3.5 Decreasing Faster 3
Backlog of Orders 46.0 52.5 -6.5 Contracting From
Growing 1
Exports 49.5 52.0 -2.5 Contracting From Growing 1
Imports 55.5 55.0 0.5 Growing Faster 24
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Slower 68
Manufacturing Sector Growing Slower 20
U.S. Industrial Market Q4 2012 to Q4 2014
Note: Latest data as of Q4 2014 Source: Colliers International
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
11.1%11.1%
19.0%52.5%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
13.8% 11.7%100%
Midwest
Northea
stSout
hWest
Canada U.S.
N.A.
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter,didmost tenants Expand, Hold Steady or Contract?
44.4%
16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
Holding SteadyContract Expand N/A
13.8% 18.5% 56.9% 6.2%
16.7%
11.7%
8.3%
1.3%
3.9%
41.7%
22.1%
33.3%
53.2% 7.8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
U.S.
Canada
NorthAmerica
How would you characterize current industrial rents in your market?
N/A
DecliningBottoming
No Clear Direction
Increasing
Peaking
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 62.5% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%25.0% 30.4% 32.3%
75.0%
39.0%
100%
Northea
stSout
h
Midwest West U.S.
Canada N.A.
Provide a three month forecast for rents (relative to current quarter):
Up Same Down N/A
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
100%
Northeas
tSout
hMidw
est West U.S.Cana
da
Provide a three month forecast for vacancy levels (relative to current quarter): Down Same Up
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
4.2%4.2% 13.8% 11.7%16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
44.4%19.0%
13.8%
11.7%
8.3%
4.6%
18.5%
41.7%
22.1%
56.9%
33.3%
53.2%
6.2%
16.7%
7.8%
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 65.2% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%
28.6%28.6%25.0%16.7%16.7%
30.4%4.3%4.3%
32.3%
13.8%13.8%
75.0%
16.7% 2.6%11.7%2.6%11.7%16.7%
39.0%
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Q4 Q1 2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2014
Q2 Q3 Q4
Vaca
ncy
%
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy %
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
Winnipeg, MBSaskatoon, SKHalifax, NS**
Victoria, BCToronto, ONRegina, SK
Ottawa, ON***Edmonton, AB
Waterloo Region, ONVancouver, BC
Montréal, QCCalgary, AB
-1.0 0.0 2.0 4.01.0 3.0
8.2
5.00.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0Millions
Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp
Millions
Savannah, GADallas-Ft. Worth, TX
Houston, TXLos Angeles, CAIndianapolis, IN
Los AngelesInland Empire, CA
Chicago, ILAtlanta, GA
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil.
12-Month Trailing Volume (left-axis)
Year-Over-Year % Change (right-axis)
52.5%
*Number of months moving in current directionSource: ISM
4 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
Vacancy declined in 60 of 72 markets tracked by Colliers that reported both Q3 2014 and Q4 2014 data. In the markets where vacancy rose, the increases were marginal and the affected markets were small. The one exception was Dallas-Fort Worth, where vacancy rose 68 bps due to a large volume of new bulk supply coupled with slowing demand for bulk product.
As noted in Colliers’ recent reports, Gulf and East Coast ports may be gaining appeal due to the recent lengthy, acrimonious labor negotiations between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) and the Pacific Maritime Association, which negotiates labor agreements with the ILWU on behalf of the West Coast port operators and shipping lines. Though a five-year contract has been agreed upon and the actual shutdown time was brief, the negotiations and slowdown had a significant negative impact on the supply chain on both sides of the ocean, causing lost productivity and great uncertainty with respect to near-term business operations. Processing delays over the past several months have caused losses throughout the supply chain, impeding both manufacturing production and imported retail goods distribution in the U.S. Agricultural exports spoiled while waiting for transport in Asia, seasonal retail imports were made obsolete, and manufacturers were forced to fly in component parts at great expense to keep operations running. As a result of these disruptions, Gulf and East Coast ports in right-to-work states with access to Class 1 railroads, such as Charleston, SC and Savannah, GA, have attracted consistent increased demand from tenants in recent quarters.
However, it is important to note that long term, the West Coast ports are likely to outperform with vacancies consistently below the national average. Despite the standoff, all four major West Coast markets (Los Angeles, Inland Empire, Seattle, and Oakland) posted vacancies below 5.0% in Q4 2014 with quarter-over-quarter declines in the 40-90 bps range. The one exception is Los Angeles, where vacancy has been relatively unchanged in the low-to-mid 2% range. The West Coast port infrastructure is well-established, particularly in Southern California with the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and the Alameda Corridor, and shipments from Asia to the East Coast are and will likely remain significantly more expensive, both by sea and especially air.
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter, did most tenants Expand, Hold Steady or Contract?
Provide a three month forecast for rents (relative to current quarter):
Provide a three month forecast for vacancy (relative to current quarter):
% of reporting marketsSource: Colliers International
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
11.1%11.1%
19.0%52.5%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
13.8% 11.7%100%
Midwest
Northea
stSout
hWest
Canada U.S.
N.A.
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter,didmost tenants Expand, Hold Steady or Contract?
44.4%
16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
Holding SteadyContract Expand N/A
13.8% 18.5% 56.9% 6.2%
16.7%
11.7%
8.3%
1.3%
3.9%
41.7%
22.1%
33.3%
53.2% 7.8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
U.S.
Canada
NorthAmerica
How would you characterize current industrial rents in your market?
N/A
DecliningBottoming
No Clear Direction
Increasing
Peaking
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 62.5% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%25.0% 30.4% 32.3%
75.0%
39.0%
100%
Northea
stSout
h
Midwest West U.S.
Canada N.A.
Provide a three month forecast for rents (relative to current quarter):
Up Same Down N/A
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
100%
Northeas
tSout
hMidw
est West U.S.Cana
da
Provide a three month forecast for vacancy levels (relative to current quarter): Down Same Up
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
4.2%4.2% 13.8% 11.7%16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
44.4%19.0%
13.8%
11.7%
8.3%
4.6%
18.5%
41.7%
22.1%
56.9%
33.3%
53.2%
6.2%
16.7%
7.8%
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 65.2% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%
28.6%28.6%25.0%16.7%16.7%
30.4%4.3%4.3%
32.3%
13.8%13.8%
75.0%
16.7% 2.6%11.7%2.6%11.7%16.7%
39.0%
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Q4 Q1 2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2014
Q2 Q3 Q4
Vaca
ncy
%Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy %
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
Winnipeg, MBSaskatoon, SKHalifax, NS**
Victoria, BCToronto, ONRegina, SK
Ottawa, ON***Edmonton, AB
Waterloo Region, ONVancouver, BC
Montréal, QCCalgary, AB
-1.0 0.0 2.0 4.01.0 3.0
8.2
5.00.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0Millions
Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp
Millions
Savannah, GADallas-Ft. Worth, TX
Houston, TXLos Angeles, CAIndianapolis, IN
Los AngelesInland Empire, CA
Chicago, ILAtlanta, GA
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil.
12-Month Trailing Volume (left-axis)
Year-Over-Year % Change (right-axis)
52.5%
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
11.1%11.1%
19.0%52.5%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
13.8% 11.7%100%
Midwest
Northea
stSout
hWest
Canada U.S.
N.A.
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter,didmost tenants Expand, Hold Steady or Contract?
44.4%
16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
Holding SteadyContract Expand N/A
13.8% 18.5% 56.9% 6.2%
16.7%
11.7%
8.3%
1.3%
3.9%
41.7%
22.1%
33.3%
53.2% 7.8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
U.S.
Canada
NorthAmerica
How would you characterize current industrial rents in your market?
N/A
DecliningBottoming
No Clear Direction
Increasing
Peaking
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 62.5% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%25.0% 30.4% 32.3%
75.0%
39.0%
100%
Northea
stSout
h
Midwest West U.S.
Canada N.A.
Provide a three month forecast for rents (relative to current quarter):
Up Same Down N/A
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
100%
Northeas
tSout
hMidw
est West U.S.Cana
da
Provide a three month forecast for vacancy levels (relative to current quarter): Down Same Up
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
4.2%4.2% 13.8% 11.7%16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
44.4%19.0%
13.8%
11.7%
8.3%
4.6%
18.5%
41.7%
22.1%
56.9%
33.3%
53.2%
6.2%
16.7%
7.8%
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 65.2% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%
28.6%28.6%25.0%16.7%16.7%
30.4%4.3%4.3%
32.3%
13.8%13.8%
75.0%
16.7% 2.6%11.7%2.6%11.7%16.7%
39.0%
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Q4 Q1 2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2014
Q2 Q3 Q4Va
canc
y %
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy %
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
Winnipeg, MBSaskatoon, SKHalifax, NS**
Victoria, BCToronto, ONRegina, SK
Ottawa, ON***Edmonton, AB
Waterloo Region, ONVancouver, BC
Montréal, QCCalgary, AB
-1.0 0.0 2.0 4.01.0 3.0
8.2
5.00.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0Millions
Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp
Millions
Savannah, GADallas-Ft. Worth, TX
Houston, TXLos Angeles, CAIndianapolis, IN
Los AngelesInland Empire, CA
Chicago, ILAtlanta, GA
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil.
12-Month Trailing Volume (left-axis)
Year-Over-Year % Change (right-axis)
52.5%
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
11.1%11.1%
19.0%52.5%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
13.8% 11.7%100%
Midwest
Northea
stSout
hWest
Canada U.S.
N.A.
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter,didmost tenants Expand, Hold Steady or Contract?
44.4%
16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
Holding SteadyContract Expand N/A
13.8% 18.5% 56.9% 6.2%
16.7%
11.7%
8.3%
1.3%
3.9%
41.7%
22.1%
33.3%
53.2% 7.8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
U.S.
Canada
NorthAmerica
How would you characterize current industrial rents in your market?
N/A
DecliningBottoming
No Clear Direction
Increasing
Peaking
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 62.5% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%25.0% 30.4% 32.3%
75.0%
39.0%
100%
Northea
stSout
h
Midwest West U.S.
Canada N.A.
Provide a three month forecast for rents (relative to current quarter):
Up Same Down N/A
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
100%
Northeas
tSout
hMidw
est West U.S.Cana
da
Provide a three month forecast for vacancy levels (relative to current quarter): Down Same Up
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
4.2%4.2% 13.8% 11.7%16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
44.4%19.0%
13.8%
11.7%
8.3%
4.6%
18.5%
41.7%
22.1%
56.9%
33.3%
53.2%
6.2%
16.7%
7.8%
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 65.2% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%
28.6%28.6%25.0%16.7%16.7%
30.4%4.3%4.3%
32.3%
13.8%13.8%
75.0%
16.7% 2.6%11.7%2.6%11.7%16.7%
39.0%
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Q4 Q1 2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2014
Q2 Q3 Q4
Vaca
ncy
%
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy %
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
Winnipeg, MBSaskatoon, SKHalifax, NS**
Victoria, BCToronto, ONRegina, SK
Ottawa, ON***Edmonton, AB
Waterloo Region, ONVancouver, BC
Montréal, QCCalgary, AB
-1.0 0.0 2.0 4.01.0 3.0
8.2
5.00.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0Millions
Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp
Millions
Savannah, GADallas-Ft. Worth, TX
Houston, TXLos Angeles, CAIndianapolis, IN
Los AngelesInland Empire, CA
Chicago, ILAtlanta, GA
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil.
12-Month Trailing Volume (left-axis)
Year-Over-Year % Change (right-axis)
52.5%
Absorption, Under Construction (SF)Select U.S. Markets | Q4 2014
Absorption, Under Construction (SF)Select Canada Markets | Q4 2014
Source: Colliers InternationalSource: Colliers International
5 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
Absorption
North American absorption increased by 6 MSF quarter-over-quarter to nearly 71 MSF in Q4 2014 with a positive contribution from both the U.S. and Canada. The U.S. Q4 2014 total of 67 MSF was the highest quarterly total during the current cycle. Positive absorption should continue in both countries in Q1 2015.
A main theme over the past several quarters has been the growing outperformance of inland distribution markets as well as those with rail access to ports as e-commerce increases in importance. Tenants in these markets can move imports quickly and efficiently through the supply chain to major population centers, meeting consumer demand for ever-shorter delivery times. Reflecting this trend, the top markets for Q4 2014 absorption were Atlanta (8.9 MSF), Chicago (6.1 MSF), L.A.-Inland Empire (4.6 MSF) and Columbus (3.0 MSF). The list was similar for year-to-date absorption, with Columbus replaced by Dallas-Fort Worth (12.7 MSF) and Houston (10.2 MSF). However, absorption in both Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston slowed down in the fourth quarter, likely due to the effects of persistent low oil prices, especially in energy-dependent Houston. As long as oil prices remain low, absorption growth is likely to moderate in Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston, as well as in the Canadian energy industry markets of Edmonton, Calgary, Regina and Saskatchewan. Detroit had a stellar year in 2014 with 8.6 MSF absorbed thanks to strong auto manufacturing and sales activity, as well as its new right-to-work status, which the state gained in 2012. Along with Columbus, smaller Southeastern and Midwestern markets, such as Louisville, Cincinnati and Memphis, should see benefits from e-commerce-related inland throughput traffic.
Another notable trend observed in recent quarters was an increase in leasing activity in the 50,000 SF to 250,000 SF range. Improvements in this segment stem from the recovering housing market as well as increased activity among small businesses. We expect both of these sectors to continue to strengthen further going forward, driving demand for industrial projects in this size range.
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
11.1%11.1%
19.0%52.5%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
13.8% 11.7%100%
Midwest
Northea
stSout
hWest
Canada U.S.
N.A.
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter,didmost tenants Expand, Hold Steady or Contract?
44.4%
16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
Holding SteadyContract Expand N/A
13.8% 18.5% 56.9% 6.2%
16.7%
11.7%
8.3%
1.3%
3.9%
41.7%
22.1%
33.3%
53.2% 7.8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
U.S.
Canada
NorthAmerica
How would you characterize current industrial rents in your market?
N/A
DecliningBottoming
No Clear Direction
Increasing
Peaking
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 62.5% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%25.0% 30.4% 32.3%
75.0%
39.0%
100%
Northea
stSout
h
Midwest West U.S.
Canada N.A.
Provide a three month forecast for rents (relative to current quarter):
Up Same Down N/A
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
100%
Northeas
tSout
hMidw
est West U.S.Cana
da
Provide a three month forecast for vacancy levels (relative to current quarter): Down Same Up
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
4.2%4.2% 13.8% 11.7%16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
44.4%19.0%
13.8%
11.7%
8.3%
4.6%
18.5%
41.7%
22.1%
56.9%
33.3%
53.2%
6.2%
16.7%
7.8%
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 65.2% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%
28.6%28.6%25.0%16.7%16.7%
30.4%4.3%4.3%
32.3%
13.8%13.8%
75.0%
16.7% 2.6%11.7%2.6%11.7%16.7%
39.0%
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Q4 Q1 2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2014
Q2 Q3 Q4
Vaca
ncy
%
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy %
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
Winnipeg, MBSaskatoon, SKHalifax, NS**
Victoria, BCToronto, ONRegina, SK
Ottawa, ON***Edmonton, AB
Waterloo Region, ONVancouver, BC
Montréal, QCCalgary, AB
-1.0 0.0 2.0 4.01.0 3.0
8.2
5.00.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0Millions
Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp
Millions
Savannah, GADallas-Ft. Worth, TX
Houston, TXLos Angeles, CAIndianapolis, IN
Los AngelesInland Empire, CA
Chicago, ILAtlanta, GA
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil.
12-Month Trailing Volume (left-axis)
Year-Over-Year % Change (right-axis)
52.5%
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
11.1%11.1%
19.0%52.5%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
13.8% 11.7%100%
Midwest
Northea
stSout
hWest
Canada U.S.
N.A.
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter,didmost tenants Expand, Hold Steady or Contract?
44.4%
16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
Holding SteadyContract Expand N/A
13.8% 18.5% 56.9% 6.2%
16.7%
11.7%
8.3%
1.3%
3.9%
41.7%
22.1%
33.3%
53.2% 7.8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
U.S.
Canada
NorthAmerica
How would you characterize current industrial rents in your market?
N/A
DecliningBottoming
No Clear Direction
Increasing
Peaking
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 62.5% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%25.0% 30.4% 32.3%
75.0%
39.0%
100%
Northea
stSout
h
Midwest West U.S.
Canada N.A.
Provide a three month forecast for rents (relative to current quarter):
Up Same Down N/A
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
100%
Northeas
tSout
hMidw
est West U.S.Cana
da
Provide a three month forecast for vacancy levels (relative to current quarter): Down Same Up
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
4.2%4.2% 13.8% 11.7%16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
44.4%19.0%
13.8%
11.7%
8.3%
4.6%
18.5%
41.7%
22.1%
56.9%
33.3%
53.2%
6.2%
16.7%
7.8%
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 65.2% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%
28.6%28.6%25.0%16.7%16.7%
30.4%4.3%4.3%
32.3%
13.8%13.8%
75.0%
16.7% 2.6%11.7%2.6%11.7%16.7%
39.0%
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Q4 Q1 2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2014
Q2 Q3 Q4Va
canc
y %
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy %
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
Winnipeg, MBSaskatoon, SKHalifax, NS**
Victoria, BCToronto, ONRegina, SK
Ottawa, ON***Edmonton, AB
Waterloo Region, ONVancouver, BC
Montréal, QCCalgary, AB
-1.0 0.0 2.0 4.01.0 3.0
8.2
5.00.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0Millions
Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp
Millions
Savannah, GADallas-Ft. Worth, TX
Houston, TXLos Angeles, CAIndianapolis, IN
Los AngelesInland Empire, CA
Chicago, ILAtlanta, GA
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil.
12-Month Trailing Volume (left-axis)
Year-Over-Year % Change (right-axis)
52.5%
** - Q2 data displayed.*** - Q3 data displayed.Source: Colliers International
Industrial Real Estate Indicators U.S.
GDP: +2.2% in Q4, BEA second estimate
Inventory 14.4 BSF
Vacancy 7.2% Nationwide (down 24 bps)
Net Absorption 67.0 MSF in Q4
New Supply 42.7 MSF in Q4, up 18.6% over Q3
New Supply to Inventory 1.1% annualized, +20 bps over Q3 Note: Up to 2% is considered healthy
Net Absorption to New Supply Ratio 1.6:1 Q4 2014 vs. 1.7:1 Q3
• Top 10 Markets account for 52% of 67 MSF net absorption in Q4.
Top 5 MSAs Q4 Net Absorption
#1 Atlanta 8.9 MSF
#2 Los Angeles - Inland Empire 6.1 MSF
#3 Los Angeles-Inland Empire 4.6 MSF
#4 Columbus 3.0 MSF
#5 Detroit 2.4 MSF
6 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
Construction Activity
Construction activity is firmly on the upswing as improving fundamentals stimulate development plans. In the U.S., more than 158 MSF are now under way. This is the highest construction volume in more than 10 years, up 50% from one year ago and 180% from Q4 2012. The current construction surge is justified since annual new supply following the recession was marginal at an average of less than 50 MSF between 2010 and 2013. Also, new stock is needed to meet increased space demand as well as replace obsolete properties, particularly near population centers as retailers and e-commerce firms seek to meet growing consumer demand for same-day and next-day delivery. Annualized new supply as a percentage of existing inventory stood at 1.1% in both the U.S. and Canada. However, the ratio crept up by 20 bps quarter-over-quarter in the U.S. and will move up further in coming quarters, raising the possibility of oversupply in certain property subtypes and locations.
For the most part, though, industrial development is concentrated in major port or distribution markets and in line with tenant demand. The list of top markets for construction activity by square footage in Q4 was similar to the top absorption markets: Dallas-Fort Worth (17.4 MSF), Atlanta (17.1 MSF), L.A.-Inland Empire (15.1 MSF), Chicago (12.6 MSF) and Toronto (8.2 MSF). The top U.S. markets for construction activity as a percentage of inventory were: Bakersfield (9.3%), L.A.-Inland Empire (3.4%), Columbus (3.0%), Minneapolis (2.8%) and Atlanta (2.8%). All of these markets have vacancy rates below the overall U.S. rate with the exception of Atlanta, which was severely hit during the downturn but is now improving rapidly.
Though supply is still at historically low levels, the absorption-to-new-supply ratio in the U.S. has fallen sharply, from 2.2:1.0 in Q4 2013 and 2.5:1.0 in 2013, to 1.6:1.0 in Q4 2014 and 1.7:1.0 for 2014. By region, absorption relative to new supply was highest in the Midwest (1.8:1.0) and lowest in the Northeast (1.3:1.0) in 2014. In Canada, the Q4 2014 absorption-to-new-supply ratio was 1.3:1.0 and the year-to-date 2014 ratio was 1.2:1.0.
Transaction Activity
Despite widespread expectations to the contrary, 10-year Treasury yields have remained at or near historic lows over the past two years, even after quantitative easing was concluded in October 2014. Recent weakened growth conditions globally have led to worldwide deflationary pressure as well as a flood of capital seeking safe haven in Treasuries, both factors that have kept yields hovering around 2%. Current consensus holds that Fed rate hikes will not occur before June and should be minimal when they do occur. Going forward, a more material rise in interest rates will likely accompany further economic improvement.
Along with favorable capital conditions, healthy real estate fundamentals are drawing investors to industrial real estate. After dipping slightly in Q3 due to product mix, aggregate U.S. transaction volume rebounded in Q4 2014 as expected. According to Real
Capital Analytics (RCA), 12-month trailing transaction volume involving deals of at least $2.5 million totaled more than $54 billion in Q4 2014, a 13.2% increase year-over-year. Additionally, both U.S. quarterly transaction volume and the average cap rate returned to levels not seen since Q3 2007. Transaction volume exceeded $16 billion, and the average cap rate fell 20 bps to 7.0%. However, unlike in 2007, these are not signs of an overheating market. The spread between the average cap rate and 10-year Treasury yield increased slightly to 478 basis points, compared with a spread of just 179 basis points in Q2 2007 at the peak of the last cycle. Accelerating NOI growth due to low vacancy and rent growth traction should help to maintain an attractive spread in the near term, allowing for continued positive valuation momentum.
As in Q3 2014, the West accounted for the largest amount of transaction volume in Q4. The West’s $5.4 billion in sales accounted for more than 30% of all U.S. industrial transactions during the quarter. Los Angeles had the largest transaction volume among U.S. metro areas at $1.5 billion for the quarter. The next highest-volume was $1.1 billion in the greater New York City area (Long Island, Northern New Jersey, New York City, Stamford, and Westchester). Chicago ($1.1 billion), Atlanta ($834 million) and Dallas ($786 million) all had standout quarters, reflecting the strength of absorption in these markets.
Industrial Transaction Volume Q4 2014 - NA
Note: Latest data as of Q4 2014; all data are 12-month trailingSources: Real Capital Analytics, Colliers International
Sources: Real Capital Analytics, Colliers International
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
11.1%11.1%
19.0%52.5%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
13.8% 11.7%100%
Midwest
Northea
stSout
hWest
Canada U.S.
N.A.
Excluding renewals, of the leases signed this quarter,didmost tenants Expand, Hold Steady or Contract?
44.4%
16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
Holding SteadyContract Expand N/A
13.8% 18.5% 56.9% 6.2%
16.7%
11.7%
8.3%
1.3%
3.9%
41.7%
22.1%
33.3%
53.2% 7.8%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
U.S.
Canada
NorthAmerica
How would you characterize current industrial rents in your market?
N/A
DecliningBottoming
No Clear Direction
Increasing
Peaking
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 62.5% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%25.0% 30.4% 32.3%
75.0%
39.0%
100%
Northea
stSout
h
Midwest West U.S.
Canada N.A.
Provide a three month forecast for rents (relative to current quarter):
Up Same Down N/A
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
100%
Northeas
tSout
hMidw
est West U.S.Cana
da
Provide a three month forecast for vacancy levels (relative to current quarter): Down Same Up
14.3% 8.3% 6.2% 6.5%
38.1%43.5%
75.0%
38.5% 44.2%44.4%
16.7%
41.5% 37.7%28.6%
4.2%4.2% 13.8% 11.7%16.7%
58.3%
25.0%
44.4%19.0%
13.8%
11.7%
8.3%
4.6%
18.5%
41.7%
22.1%
56.9%
33.3%
53.2%
6.2%
16.7%
7.8%
44.4% 42.9%58.3% 65.2% 53.8%
8.3%46.8%
55.6%
28.6%
28.6%28.6%25.0%16.7%16.7%
30.4%4.3%4.3%
32.3%
13.8%13.8%
75.0%
16.7% 2.6%11.7%2.6%11.7%16.7%
39.0%
66.7%57.1% 50.0%
65.2% 60.0%
25.0%
11.1% 14.3%41.7% 30.4% 24.6%
41.7%
22.2% 28.6%8.3% 4.3% 15.4%
33.3%
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
Q4 Q1 2013
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2014
Q2 Q3 Q4
Vaca
ncy
%
Absorption MSF Completions MSF Vacancy %
9.1 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.4 7.1
Winnipeg, MBSaskatoon, SKHalifax, NS**
Victoria, BCToronto, ONRegina, SK
Ottawa, ON***Edmonton, AB
Waterloo Region, ONVancouver, BC
Montréal, QCCalgary, AB
-1.0 0.0 2.0 4.01.0 3.0
8.2
5.00.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0Millions
Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp Currently U/C Q4-14 Absorp
Millions
Savannah, GADallas-Ft. Worth, TX
Houston, TXLos Angeles, CAIndianapolis, IN
Los AngelesInland Empire, CA
Chicago, ILAtlanta, GA
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bil.
12-Month Trailing Volume (left-axis)
Year-Over-Year % Change (right-axis)
52.5%
The Top Five MSAs in Transaction Volume Q4
#1 Los Angeles $1.5 bil.
#2 Chicago $1.1 bil.
#3 San Jose $873.6 mil.
#4 Atlanta $834.3 mil.
#5 Dallas $785.7 mil.
7 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
Conclusion and Outlook: The industrial sector should register another year of strong performance in 2015, boosted by encouraging outlooks for its demand drivers. Interest rates and inflation remain benign in both the U.S. and Canada, and the dollar has been strengthened by soft global economic conditions. While economic conditions in Canada are more muted, export-oriented sectors should see a boost from strength in the U.S. Additionally, nonfarm payrolls are finally past their prior peak, and growth is accelerating with a stabilizing labor force participation rate. IHS Global Insight projects job growth of 2.2% for 2015, the fastest rate since 2000, as state and local government hiring finally recovers from austerity cutbacks. The tightening of the labor market set against near-record corporate profits should allow for meaningful and broad-based wage growth, which has already begun. The recent wage increase announced by Walmart augurs well for this trend. Higher wages, low gas costs and the strong dollar should set the stage for a surge in both consumption and imports. IHS projects that consumption growth will accelerate from 2.4% in 2014 to 3.6% in 2015, while import growth will jump from 4.0% to 6.1%. Under these conditions, demand for industrial space should, by and large, be sufficient to meet the growing volume of new supply, although the absorption-to-new-supply ratio is likely to continue to fall this year, particularly for secondary markets. The growing importance of e-commerce should also provide a structural augmentation to cyclical demand forces, especially in markets with port and rail access to major population centers.
North American Industrial Overview | Q4 2014NORTH AMERICA CANADA UNITED STATES WEST MIDWEST SOUTH NORTHEAST
# of Markets 77 12 65 23 12 21 9
Inventory (Millions SF) 16,121.4 1,737.0 14,384.4 3,854.2 4,036.1 4,289.5 2,204.5
% of N.A. Inventory 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 23.9% 25.0% 26.6% 13.7%
New Supply (Millions SF) 45.4 2.8 42.7 9.2 11.5 15.1 6.8
% of N.A. New Supply 100.0% 6.1% 93.9% 20.3% 25.3% 33.3% 14.9%
Vacancy (%) 6.8% 4.0% 7.2% 5.5% 6.9% 8.0% 9.0%
Absorption (Millions SF) 70.7 3.6 67.0 18.2 19.4 22.2 7.2
% of N.A. Absorption 100.0% 5.2% 94.8% 25.8% 27.5% 31.4% 10.2%
7
8 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
United States | Industrial Survey | Inventory, New Supply, Under Construction
MARKET EXISTING INVENTORY (SF) DEC 31, 2014
NEW SUPPLY Q4 2014 (SF)
YTD NEW SUPPLY 2014 (SF)
UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF)
NORTHEAST
Baltimore, MD 227,412,223 383,528 3,018,198 0
Boston, MA*** 151,143,203 0 250,000 936,000
Hartford, CT 95,613,351 0 0 0
Long Island, NY 156,055,780 0 308,000 52,000
New Jersey - Central*** 345,598,813 2,279,015 3,972,122 4,427,027
New Jersey - Northern*** 362,981,273 1,845,564 1,845,564 180,000
Philadelphia, PA 418,722,852 1,845,647 4,739,902 6,832,587
Pittsburgh, PA 174,711,192 39,300 496,036 703,122
Washington, DC 272,264,900 381,850 1,538,590 2,818,053
Northeast Total 2,204,503,587 6,774,904 16,168,412 15,948,789
SOUTH
Atlanta, GA 620,204,352 2,278,762 4,440,239 17,100,470
Birmingham, AL 109,682,848 0 0 70,000
Charleston, SC 33,197,465 0 0 316,000
Charlotte, NC 331,615,969 1,458,584 2,946,193 1,503,563
Columbia, SC 39,432,227 38,500 408,000 130,400
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 744,817,195 6,946,792 15,778,094 17,360,899
Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 110,536,807 229,632 793,946 169,600
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 184,810,481 557,967 2,021,901 1,323,000
Houston, TX 496,050,222 1,389,405 8,650,474 7,963,627
Jacksonville, FL 122,829,104 0 65,443 367,546
Little Rock, AR 45,350,513 0 18,376 0
Louisville, KY 174,581,874 200,000 1,009,430 567,662
Memphis, TN 223,922,979 1,245,800 2,622,032 2,299,040
Miami, FL 212,385,362 216,150 1,749,683 955,707
Nashville, TN 187,906,401 0 366,488 0
Orlando, FL 132,688,415 345,804 686,951 1,906,502
Raleigh, NC 111,353,138 0 309,305 0
Richmond, VA 111,709,627 0 0 1,779,652
Savannah, GA 45,312,300 0 10,000 1,013,400
Tampa Bay, FL 200,780,329 230,600 2,792,531 166,000
West Palm Beach, FL 50,379,239 0 240,400 745,634
South Total 4,289,546,847 15,137,996 44,909,486 55,738,702
*** Q3-14 data displayed
9 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International9
United States | Industrial Survey | Inventory, New Supply, Under Construction
MARKET EXISTING INVENTORY (SF) DEC 31, 2014
NEW SUPPLY Q4 2014 (SF)
YTD NEW SUPPLY 2014 (SF)
UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF)
MIDWEST
Chicago, IL 1,323,219,994 4,512,001 11,515,778 12,608,925
Cincinnati, OH 245,973,825 0 821,448 2,300,000
Cleveland, OH 282,881,897 0 107,001 169,600
Columbus, OH 220,189,715 1,895,715 4,452,715 6,675,000
Detroit, MI 524,365,442 233,892 732,507 1,163,030
Grand Rapids, MI 113,037,888 0 45,750 172,280
Indianapolis, IN 283,754,448 1,127,363 6,830,230 5,392,321
Kansas City, MO-KS 236,212,750 1,207,760 3,871,940 3,428,050
Milwaukee, WI 225,210,168 1,161,194 2,460,200 1,120,000
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 243,755,400 835,412 2,515,536 6,761,136
Omaha, NE 68,387,888 439,680 512,480 274,970
St. Louis, MO 269,135,213 81,844 1,008,117 820,939
Midwest Total 4,036,124,628 11,494,861 34,873,702 40,886,251
WEST
Albuquerque, NM 37,227,667 0 45,750 0
Bakersfield, CA 34,214,111 71,334 541,735 3,169,600
Boise, ID 46,373,012 131,305 157,305 80,480
Denver, CO 217,216,439 225,733 2,454,846 1,797,566
Fairfield, CA 47,354,898 473,136 956,817 1,287,620
Fresno, CA 56,481,450 0 0 200,000
Honolulu, HI 39,230,336 0 0 0
Las Vegas, NV 118,158,211 444,520 1,095,400 862,161
Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA 440,879,600 3,522,500 20,707,351 15,052,000
Los Angeles, CA 891,558,000 1,210,500 1,448,000 2,745,500
Oakland, CA 142,563,820 0 949,365 633,584
Orange County, CA 194,074,500 626,000 952,885 266,500
Phoenix, AZ 284,128,488 1,829,221 7,062,934 3,762,684
Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA 17,508,130 0 0 0
Portland, OR 192,516,359 599,700 1,170,301 5,232,424
Reno, NV 83,796,751 0 1,301,810 1,227,000
Sacramento, CA 162,043,481 0 298,014 1,313,814
San Diego, CA 187,593,253 0 382,299 112,824
San Francisco Peninsula, CA 40,852,516 0 8,500 0
San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA 248,937,322 111,100 386,100 912,009
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 256,357,731 0 2,014,972 4,961,281
Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA 97,515,885 0 1,900,060 2,167,055
Walnut Creek, CA 17,639,115 0 0 0
West Total 3,854,221,075 9,245,049 43,834,444 45,784,102
U.S. TOTALS 14,384,396,137 42,652,810 139,786,044 158,357,844
(continued)
10 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
United States | Industrial Survey | Absorption, Vacancy
MARKET ABSORPTION Q4 2014 (SF) YTD ABSORPTION VACANCY RATE
SEP 30, 2014VACANCY RATE
DEC 31, 2014
NORTHEAST
Baltimore, MD 1,350,436 5,166,492 9.4% 8.9%
Boston, MA*** 78,817 -526,454 19.2% 19.1%
Hartford, CT 140,692 828,277 8.5% 8.4%
Long Island, NY -22,838 228,586 5.0% 5.0%
New Jersey - Central*** 2,524,673 4,977,373 8.4% 8.3%
New Jersey - Northern*** 113,992 -117,822 8.3% 8.2%
Philadelphia, PA 1,833,377 5,356,542 8.6% 8.6%
Pittsburgh, PA -480,686 538,240 7.2% 7.5%
Washington, DC 1,638,981 5,214,551 10.2% 9.7%
Northeast Total 7,177,444 21,665,785 9.1% 9.0%
SOUTH
Atlanta, GA 8,889,058 20,302,864 10.2% 9.1%
Birmingham, AL -255,650 -1,326,794 10.0% 10.3%
Charleston, SC 397,408 239,568 8.7% 7.5%
Charlotte, NC 1,375,636 6,316,128 10.6% 10.6%
Columbia, SC 173,600 966,727 6.3% 6.0%
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 1,365,984 12,696,001 6.9% 7.6%
Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 764,934 2,096,443 8.1% 7.4%
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 1,548,152 2,906,564 7.7% 7.1%
Houston, TX 1,367,297 10,243,774 4.9% 4.8%
Jacksonville, FL 960,950 1,781,250 8.6% 7.8%
Little Rock, AR 48,638 78,757 11.7% 11.6%
Louisville, KY 481,683 1,315,557 6.9% 6.8%
Memphis, TN 1,999,360 1,833,708 12.7% 12.2%
Miami, FL 544,308 2,262,556 6.1% 5.9%
Nashville, TN 614,418 2,607,602 7.7% 7.3%
Orlando, FL 536,949 1,607,272 9.1% 8.9%
Raleigh, NC 171,905 1,139,351 8.6% 8.4%
Richmond, VA 322,814 1,740,545 8.1% 7.8%
Savannah, GA 117,150 1,630,440 5.7% 5.5%
Tampa Bay, FL 683,859 5,211,021 8.9% 8.6%
West Palm Beach, FL 69,346 729,715 6.0% 5.9%
South Total 22,177,799 76,379,049 8.2% 8.0%
*** Q3-14 data displayed
11 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International11
United States | Industrial Survey | Absorption, Vacancy
MARKET ABSORPTION Q4 2014 (SF) YTD ABSORPTION VACANCY RATE
SEP 30, 2014VACANCY RATE
DEC 31, 2014
MIDWEST
Chicago, IL 6,141,906 18,301,811 8.0% 7.7%
Cincinnati, OH 989,373 4,839,331 6.1% 5.7%
Cleveland, OH 155,507 1,093,997 6.6% 6.5%
Columbus, OH 2,965,165 5,461,838 6.0% 5.4%
Detroit, MI 2,383,956 8,597,395 8.3% 7.9%
Grand Rapids, MI 599,179 1,459,864 6.5% 5.9%
Indianapolis, IN 1,976,271 6,967,661 6.8% 6.5%
Kansas City, MO-KS 936,140 3,168,908 6.2% 6.3%
Milwaukee, WI 1,439,457 3,893,717 5.8% 5.5%
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 1,064,324 3,295,455 7.2% 7.1%
Omaha, NE 454,929 1,474,452 3.0% 3.0%
St. Louis, MO 314,374 4,828,182 7.1% 7.0%
Midwest Total 19,420,581 63,382,611 7.2% 6.9%
WEST
Albuquerque, NM 103,561 964,246 7.1% 6.9%
Bakersfield, CA 599,946 844,380 3.8% 2.2%
Boise, ID 382,442 1,593,957 4.2% 3.7%
Denver, CO 1,112,359 4,936,436 4.8% 4.4%
Fairfield, CA 851,401 1,536,997 6.8% 5.8%
Fresno, CA -66,410 391,769 7.7% 7.8%
Honolulu, HI 39,908 262,706 2.2% 2.1%
Las Vegas, NV 881,201 3,817,642 9.5% 9.1%
Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA 4,632,000 14,551,800 4.9% 4.5%
Los Angeles, CA 1,717,800 6,648,600 2.4% 2.3%
Oakland, CA 1,273,412 4,251,025 4.8% 3.9%
Orange County, CA 248,600 870,400 3.6% 3.4%
Phoenix, AZ 529,251 7,410,170 12.2% 12.3%
Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA 57,826 198,299 6.7% 6.4%
Portland, OR 885,934 2,336,726 5.7% 5.6%
Reno, NV 793,234 2,326,610 8.3% 8.1%
Sacramento, CA 419,080 2,841,770 11.2% 11.0%
San Diego, CA 1,216,130 3,259,088 7.6% 6.9%
San Francisco Peninsula, CA 119,475 886,559 3.3% 3.0%
San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA 1,106,844 1,974,384 8.1% 7.3%
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 653,338 3,782,836 5.5% 4.8%
Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA 584,993 4,852,042 8.9% 8.3%
Walnut Creek, CA 102,687 142,822 7.5% 6.9%
West Total 18,245,012 70,681,264 5.8% 5.5%
U.S. TOTALS 67,020,836 232,108,709 7.4% 7.2%
(continued)
12 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
United States | Industrial Survey | 3-Month Forecasts, Sales Price, Cap Rates
MARKET VACANCY FORECAST (3 MONTHS)**
RENT FORECAST (3 MONTHS)**
ABSORPTION FORECAST (3 MONTHS)**
SALES PRICE (USD/PSF)
CAP RATE
NORTHEAST
Baltimore, MD Down Same Positive $72.91 6.6%
Boston, MA*** Up Same Negative $89.00
Hartford, CT Down Same Positive $38.00 8.5%
Long Island, NY Up Same Positive $91.00 8.2%
New Jersey - Central*** Down Up Positive $43.06 7.7%
New Jersey - Northern*** Same Up Positive $93.45 8.7%
Philadelphia, PA Down Up Positive $65.50 7.0%
Pittsburgh, PA Down Up Positive $55.00 7.5%
Washington, DC Down Same Positive $106.83 5.6%
Northeast Average* $72.75 7.5%
SOUTH
Atlanta, GA Down Up Positive $48.08 7.6%
Birmingham, AL Same Same Close to zero
Charleston, SC Down Up Positive
Charlotte, NC Down N/A Positive
Columbia, SC Down Up Positive
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX Up Same Positive $48.00 7.1%
Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL Up N/A Positive
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC Down Up Positive
Houston, TX Same Same Positive $49.00 7.2%
Jacksonville, FL Down Same Positive $39.00 8.2%
Little Rock, AR Same Same Close to zero $65.45 9.0%
Louisville, KY Up N/A Positive
Memphis, TN Down Up Positive $35.00 7.5%
Miami, FL Up N/A Positive
Nashville, TN Down Up Close to zero $39.00 8.2%
Orlando, FL Down Up Positive $56.00 7.0%
Raleigh, NC Up N/A Positive
Richmond, VA Down Up Positive $60.00
Savannah, GA Down Up Positive $36.00 7.5%
Tampa Bay, FL Down Same Positive $33.00 9.0%
West Palm Beach, FL Up N/A Positive
South Average* $46.23 7.8%
* Straight averages used** Forecasts for Warehouse space*** Q3-14 data displayed
13 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International13
* Straight averages used** Forecasts for Warehouse space
United States | Industrial Survey | 3-Month Forecasts, Sales Price, Cap Rates
MARKET VACANCY FORECAST (3 MONTHS)**
RENT FORECAST (3 MONTHS)**
ABSORPTION FORECAST (3 MONTHS)**
SALES PRICE (USD/PSF)
CAP RATE
MIDWEST
Chicago, IL Down Up Positive $59.00 5.6%
Cincinnati, OH Same Same Positive $35.00 8.5%
Cleveland, OH Down N/A Positive
Columbus, OH Down Up Positive $33.00
Detroit, MI Down Up Positive $33.24 10.6%
Grand Rapids, MI Same Up Close to zero
Indianapolis, IN Up Same Positive $56.00 6.7%
Kansas City, MO-KS Same Up Positive
Milwaukee, WI Same Same Positive $50.00 8.3%
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN Down Up Positive $55.00 7.0%
Omaha, NE Same Up Positive
St. Louis, MO Down N/A Positive
Midwest Average* $45.89 7.8%
WEST
Albuquerque, NM Same Same Positive $86.50 7.7%
Bakersfield, CA Same Same Positive $40.00 10.0%
Boise, ID Same Same Close to zero
Denver, CO Same Up Positive $66.32 6.3%
Fairfield, CA Down Up Positive
Fresno, CA Same Same Close to zero $37.00 8.8%
Honolulu, HI Down Same Positive $145.00
Las Vegas, NV Down Up Positive $79.84
Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA Down Up Positive $83.00 6.5%
Los Angeles, CA Same Up Positive $99.00 6.3%
Oakland, CA Down Up Positive $125.00 5.0%
Orange County, CA Same Up Close to zero $122.00 6.0%
Phoenix, AZ Down Up Positive $68.00 7.3%
Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA Down Up Close to zero $77.24 6.2%
Portland, OR Down Same Positive $91.08 7.0%
Reno, NV Up N/A Positive
Sacramento, CA Down Same Positive $51.00 7.7%
San Diego, CA Down Up Positive $97.46 6.3%
San Francisco Peninsula, CA Down Up Positive $200.00 6.0%
San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA Down Up Positive $197.00 6.1%
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA Down Up Positive $104.12 6.5%
Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA Down Up Positive
Walnut Creek, CA Down Up Positive
West Average* $98.31 6.9%
U.S. AVERAGE* $72.31 7.4%
(continued)
14 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
United States | Industrial Survey | Average Asking Rents As Of Dec 2014
MARKET WAREHOUSE / DISTRIBUTION SPACE (USD/SF/YR)
BULK SPACE (USD/SF/YR)
FLEX SERVICE SPACE (USD/SF/YR)
TECH / R&D SPACE (USD/SF/YR)
NORTHEAST
Baltimore, MD $4.52 $4.52 $10.84
Boston, MA*** $6.10 $5.40 $6.58 $12.11
Hartford, CT $3.91 $5.88 $7.83 $6.50
Long Island, NY $8.99 $8.99 $16.75
New Jersey - Central*** $5.07 $4.74 $13.56
New Jersey - Northern*** $6.18 $5.71 $9.84
Philadelphia, PA $4.25 $4.18 $7.50 $11.25
Pittsburgh, PA $4.69 $4.67 $12.26 $12.26
Washington, DC $7.08 $5.76 $11.97 $13.54
Northeast Average* $5.64 $5.54 $10.79 $11.13
SOUTH
Atlanta, GA $3.37 $3.04 $7.25 $9.55
Birmingham, AL $3.70 $3.21 $7.85
Charleston, SC $4.16 $4.58 $9.85 $16.25
Charlotte, NC $3.46 $3.48 $8.35
Columbia, SC $3.46 $3.40 $8.31
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX $3.45 $2.90 $7.45 $8.90
Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL $6.81 $6.36 $10.75
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC $3.23 $3.44 $7.01
Houston, TX $5.86 $4.56 $10.61 $11.31
Jacksonville, FL $3.70 $3.91 $8.98
Little Rock, AR $3.16 $3.08 $8.06
Louisville, KY $3.57 $3.66 $6.34
Memphis, TN $2.54 $2.72 $5.07 $9.75
Miami, FL $7.30 $7.08 $12.80 $12.87
Nashville, TN $4.01 $3.11 $7.61 $7.70
Orlando, FL $4.68 $4.59 $9.09 $9.05
Raleigh, NC $4.17 $4.88 $10.39
Richmond, VA $3.75 $3.81 $7.73 $9.44
Savannah, GA $3.95 $3.75 $7.00 $10.00
Tampa Bay, FL $4.28 $4.20 $7.62 $6.15
West Palm Beach, FL $7.49 $6.98 $11.95
South Average* $4.29 $4.13 $8.57 $10.09
* Straight averages used*** Q3-14 data displayed
15 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International15
* Straight averages used
United States | Industrial Survey | Average Asking Rents As Of Dec 2014
MARKET WAREHOUSE / DISTRIBUTION SPACE (USD/SF/YR)
BULK SPACE (USD/SF/YR)
FLEX SERVICE SPACE (USD/SF/YR)
TECH / R&D SPACE (USD/SF/YR)
MIDWEST
Chicago, IL $4.58 $3.54 $9.02
Cincinnati, OH $3.17 $2.77 $6.04 $6.04
Cleveland, OH $4.30 $3.15 $9.23
Columbus, OH $2.84 $2.84 $5.08 $5.08
Detroit, MI $4.38 $3.77 $8.03 $7.79
Grand Rapids, MI $3.25 $4.32 $8.83 $8.63
Indianapolis, IN $4.55 $3.20 $6.70
Kansas City, MO-KS $4.40 $3.98 $8.13 $7.42
Milwaukee, WI $4.50 $3.55 $5.85
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN $5.06 $4.97 $6.96 $7.46
Omaha, NE $3.65 $3.50 $6.42 $5.08
St. Louis, MO $3.75 $3.82
Midwest Average* $4.04 $3.62 $7.30 $6.79
WEST
Albuquerque, NM $5.56 $4.29 $8.90 $8.90
Bakersfield, CA $4.00 $3.42 $8.00
Boise, ID $5.30 $5.73 $6.45
Denver, CO $6.24 $4.36 $10.67 $11.03
Fairfield, CA $5.28 $5.70 $7.10 $$9.81
Fresno, CA $3.91 $3.13 $8.10 $$8.10
Honolulu, HI $13.20
Las Vegas, NV $5.28 $4.92 $7.00 $9.72
Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA $5.04 $4.70 $7.15 $7.65
Los Angeles, CA $6.96 $5.76 $9.25 $12.25
Oakland, CA $6.24 $6.00 $6.48 $9.96
Orange County, CA $8.04 $7.32 $15.00 $11.25
Phoenix, AZ $5.62 $4.54 $11.84 $11.87
Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA $5.88 $6.00
Portland, OR $5.27 $4.94 $11.17 $9.70
Reno, NV $4.06 $3.84 $6.93
Sacramento, CA $4.32 $3.96 $8.76 $8.64
San Diego, CA $7.80 $6.84 $11.40 $17.64
San Francisco Peninsula, CA $10.32 $10.32 $27.84 $27.84
San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA $7.68 $6.12 $9.12 $17.88
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA $5.96 $5.30 $14.06 $15.17
Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA $3.96 $4.08 $5.76 $8.28
Walnut Creek, CA $4.68 $12.24
West Average* $6.11 $5.30 $10.05 $12.11
U.S. AVERAGE* $5.08 $4.62 $9.16 $10.54
(continued)
16 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
Canada | Industrial Survey | Inventory, New Supply, Under ConstructionMARKET INVENTORY (SF)
DEC 31, 2014NEW SUPPLY Q4 2014 (SF)
YTD NEW SUPPLY (SF)
CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF)
Calgary, AB 132,144,332 291,641 2,448,985 4,272,489
Edmonton, AB 82,910,748 0 642,623 1,772,801
Halifax, NS** 7,647,194 0 0 0
Montréal, QC 324,708,553 401,668 1,062,109 2,381,000
Ottawa, ON*** 43,594,386 0 1,326,945 115,000
Regina, SK 17,766,293 87,800 315,914 250,000
Saskatoon, SK 21,846,000 107,000 577,000 210,566
Toronto, ON 764,787,312 1,446,929 5,044,602 8,170,015
Vancouver, BC 192,025,582 247,630 2,691,390 1,849,002
Victoria, BC 9,159,327 25,125 43,354 0
Waterloo Region, ON 60,301,443 179,911 293,703 477,063
Winnipeg, MB 80,157,082 0 80,000 304,000
CANADA TOTAL 1,737,048,252 2,787,704 14,526,625 19,801,936
Canada | Industrial Survey | Absorption, Vacancy RateMARKET ABSORPTION
Q4 2014 (SF)YTD
ABSORPTIONVACANCY RATE
SEP 30, 2014VACANCY RATE DEC 31, 2014
Calgary, AB 1,186,236 5,081,789 4.4% 3.8%
Edmonton, AB 296,615 660,689 3.2% 3.4%
Halifax, NS** 0 -57,789 12.2% 12.2%
Montréal, QC 1,020,393 4,488,009 4.1% 4.0%
Ottawa, ON*** 175,424 133,191 4.2% 3.8%
Regina, SK 140,255 368,439 2.4% 2.1%
Saskatoon, SK -16,339 243,661 5.1% 5.6%
Toronto, ON 116,767 3,662,064 3.7% 3.8%
Vancouver, BC 589,310 2,797,692 4.1% 3.9%
Victoria, BC 0 70,739 4.6% 4.6%
Waterloo Region, ON 382,468 -418,449 7.8% 7.0%
Winnipeg, MB -241,219 -12,716 3.5% 3.8%
CANADA TOTAL 3,649,910 17,017,319 4.0% 4.0%
Canada | Industrial Survey | Forecasts, Sales Price, Cap RatesMARKET VACANCY FORECAST
(3 MONTHS)XRENT FORECAST
(3 MONTHS)XABSORPTION FORECAST
(3 MONTHS)XSALES PRICE (CAD/PSF)
CAP RATE
Calgary, AB Up Down Negative $175.00 6.5%
Edmonton, AB Up Down Positive $119.94 7.2%
Halifax, NS** Down Same Negative
Montréal, QC Same Same Positive $65.00 7.3%
Ottawa, ON*** Same Same Close to zero $110.00 6.8%
Regina, SK Same Same Positive $160.00 7.2%
Saskatoon, SK Up Same Positive $165.00 7.2%
Toronto, ON Same Same Positive $96.50 6.2%
Vancouver, BC Down Up Positive $182.00 5.5%
Victoria, BC Same Same Positive $195.00 7.5%
Waterloo Region, ON Down Same Positive $71.00 7.0%
Winnipeg, MB Up Same Negative $100.00 7.0%
CANADA AVERAGES* $130.86 6.8%
* Straight averages used ** Q2 data displayed *** Q3 data displayed
17 North American Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2014 | Industrial Market Outlook | Colliers International
Canada | Industrial Survey | Average Asking Rents As Of Dec 2014
MARKETWAREHOUSE/
DISTRIBUTION SPACE (CAD/SF/YR)
BULK SPACE (CAD/SF/YR)
FLEX/SERVICE SPACE (CAD/SF/YR)
TECH/ R&D SPACE (CAD/SF/YR)
Calgary, AB $9.50 $8.25 $12.50 $12.50
Edmonton, AB $8.40 $7.85 $10.25 $17.10
Halifax, NS** $8.15 $7.92 $9.02 $15.00
Montréal, QC $4.75 $4.25 $5.75 $8.00
Ottawa, ON*** $5.50 $4.25 $8.93 $8.93
Regina, SK $11.00 $10.00 $12.00 $13.75
Saskatoon, SK $11.00 $10.00 $12.00 $14.00
Toronto, ON $5.35 $5.42
Vancouver, BC $8.54 $7.72 $9.22 $14.00
Victoria, BC $11.50 $10.00 $13.50 $13.50
Waterloo Region, ON $4.56 $3.63 $8.49 $8.49
Winnipeg, MB $6.63 $5.50 $10.95 $12.75
CANADA AVERAGES* $7.91 $7.07 $10.24 $12.55
Canada | Vacancy Rankings
MARKET VACANCY RATE DEC 31, 2014
Regina, SK 2.1%
Edmonton, AB 3.4%
Winnipeg, MB 3.8%
Toronto, ON 3.8%
Calgary, AB 3.8%
Ottawa, ON*** 3.8%
Vancouver, BC 3.9%
Montréal, QC 4.0%
CANADA AVERAGE 4.0%
Victoria, BC 4.6%
Saskatoon, SK 5.6%
Waterloo Region, ON 7.0%
Halifax, NS** 12.2%
MARKET VACANCY RATE DEC 31, 2014
Honolulu, HI 2.1%
Bakersfield, CA 2.2%
Los Angeles, CA 2.3%
Omaha, NE 3.0%
San Francisco Peninsula, CA 3.0%
Orange County, CA 3.4%
Boise, ID 3.7%
Oakland, CA 3.9%
Denver, CO 4.4%
Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA 4.5%
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 4.8%
Houston, TX 4.8%
Long Island, NY 5.0%
Columbus, OH 5.4%
Savannah, GA 5.5%
Milwaukee, WI 5.5%
Portland, OR 5.6%
Cincinnati, OH 5.7%
Fairfield, CA 5.8%
Miami, FL 5.9%
West Palm Beach, FL 5.9%
Grand Rapids, MI 5.9%
MARKET VACANCY RATE DEC 31, 2014
Columbia, SC 6.0%
Kansas City, MO-KS 6.3%
Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA 6.4%
Indianapolis, IN 6.5%
Cleveland, OH 6.5%
Louisville, KY 6.8%
Albuquerque, NM 6.9%
San Diego, CA 6.9%
Walnut Creek, CA 6.9%
St. Louis, MO 7.0%
Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 7.1%
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 7.1%
U.S. AVERAGE 7.2%
San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA 7.3%
Nashville, TN 7.3%
Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 7.4%
Pittsburgh, PA 7.5%
Charleston, SC 7.5%
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 7.6%
Chicago, IL 7.7%
Richmond, VA 7.8%
Fresno, CA 7.8%
MARKET VACANCY RATE DEC 31, 2014
Jacksonville, FL 7.8%
Detroit, MI 7.9%
Reno, NV 8.1%
New Jersey - Northern*** 8.2%
Stockton/ San Joaquin County, CA 8.3%
New Jersey - Central*** 8.3%
Hartford, CT 8.4%
Raleigh, NC 8.4%
Philadelphia, PA 8.6%
Tampa Bay, FL 8.6%
Orlando, FL 8.9%
Baltimore, MD 8.9%
Las Vegas, NV 9.1%
Atlanta, GA 9.1%
Washington, DC 9.7%
Birmingham, AL 10.3%
Charlotte, NC 10.6%
Sacramento, CA 11.0%
Little Rock, AR 11.6%
Memphis, TN 12.2%
Phoenix, AZ 12.3%
Boston, MA*** 19.1%
* Straight averages used ** Q2 data displayed *** Q3 data displayed
U.S. | Vacancy Rankings
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CONTRIBUTORSJeff Simonson
U.S. Senior Research Analyst | USA
AJ Paniagua U.S. Research Analyst | USA
Andrew Nelson Chief Economist | USA