Post on 11-Aug-2014
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Twitter: #ukenergyemail: transmission.ukfes@nationalgrid.com
UK Future Energy Scenarios 2014Richard Smith: Head of Energy Strategy & Policy
Twitter: #ukenergyemail: transmission.ukfes@nationalgrid.com
Our journey so farCordi O’Hara: Director, Market Operation
We all want to understand what thefuture journey might look like
Shar
e of
tota
l end
use
ene
rgy
Carbon intensity
~50%
~0%~800gCO2e/kWh ~0gCO2e/kWh
Electricity
Gas
Oil
19902010
2020
2030
2050
A ‘Low Carbon Life’ pathway to 2050:19902010
2020
2030
20502050
1990
201020202030
Our vision of the future affects & informs how important decisions are made…Development of
transmission systems
European developments
Supply & demandfor the year ahead
Security of supply& decarbonisation
Twitter: #ukenergyemail: transmission.ukfes@nationalgrid.com
Scoping the future energy landscapeRichard Smith: Head of Energy Strategy & Policy
We follow an annual cycle ofscenario development
Once our axioms have been defined, they underpin our detailed modelling and drive our specific electricity and gas, demand and supply scenarios.
Modelling
Our stakeholder engagement allows us to listen to your views, which are vital to our outputs. They drive our processes and inform both our scenarios and our consultation process.
Your Views
The scenarios are the end result and a vision of the future that stakeholders have informed. The publication of the Future Energy Scenarios document marks the start of our annual process and the continuation of our stakeholder consultation.
Future Energy Scenarios
An axiom is a premise or starting point of reasoning. The axioms that we produce are a reflection pf the stakeholder feedback that we receive through our consultation process. These axioms influence our modelling.
Axioms
Everyone is a stakeholder in the future& we want the widest range of input…
…which we use to develop plausible& credible evidence based scenarios every year…
Generic 5 stage gate process:
Stakeholder feedback
Stakeholder feedback
Input data /market intelligence /
stakeholder feedback
Benchmark data /market intelligence /
stakeholder feedback
1 Head of Energy
Strategy & Policy led Framework based on
feedback evidence Challenge & review
with NGET & NGG SO leadership & relevant teams
Sign-off at SO Exec.
2 Responsible manager
led (eg. Power Demand Manager)
Cogency & consistency check across work streams
Peer challenge & review with NGET & NGG SO internal experts
Sign-off at Energy Strategy & Policy managers meeting
3 Responsible manager
led (eg. Power Demand Manager)
Peer challenge & review with NGET & NGG SO internal experts
Internal model QA Sign-off at Energy
Strategy & Policy managers meeting
4 Responsible manager
led (eg. Power Demand Manager)
Peer challenge & review with NGET & NGG SO internal experts
Internal model QA Sign-off at Energy
Strategy & Policy managers meeting
5 Responsible manager
led (eg. Power Demand Manager)
Energy Strategy & Policy leadership review
Process assurance Sign-off at Energy
Strategy & Policy managers meeting
Define scenario framework & agree axioms
Define analysis methods &
assumptionsDraft analysis Revise analysis Produce outputs
…breaking down our view of the future& applying fit for purpose modelling techniques
Power demand modelling example:
Scaling factors based on historic trends for each sector adjusted on previous winter’s outturn, demand side response
Scaling factors based on historic trends and socio-economic / geospatial factors by technology class
RESIDENTIAL DEMANDLighting, appliances, heating (heat pumps), transport (EVs), housing growth, energy efficiency, behaviour, ‘SMART’Deterministic rule based & specific regression models
INDUSTRIAL & COMMERCIAL DEMANDGDP, manufacturing output, non-manufacturing output, energy efficiency, energy pricesEconometric regression model
EXPORTSMarket intelligence & stakeholder data/evidenceDeterministic rule based model
Geographic demand (post-code analysis)
Peak, minimum and reactive power demand
Annual power demand
Your feedback has fundamentally shaped our 2014 scenarios
“National Grid needs to tell an engaging story”
“introduce more Future Energy Scenarios”
“explore scenarios based around the energy trilemma”
Mat
thew
Spe
ncer
Gre
en A
llian
ce
Guy
New
eyP
olic
y E
xcha
nge
Jenny SaundersNational Energy Action
Sunita BaliExperian
SustainabilityLess emphasis
SustainabilityMore emphasis
Affo
rdab
ility
Less
mon
eyA
fford
abili
tyM
ore
mon
ey
Twitter: #ukenergyemail: transmission.ukfes@nationalgrid.com
Our 2014 Future Energy ScenariosAlice Etheridge: Strategy Development Manager
Our 2014 Future Energy Scenarios
Low Carbon Life
Gone Green
No Progression
SlowProgression
SustainabilityLess emphasis
SustainabilityMore emphasis
Affo
rdab
ility
Less
mon
eyA
fford
abili
tyM
ore
mon
ey
No Progression
Economic: Slow UK economic recoveryPolitical: Inconsistent political statements within Government, resulting in investor uncertaintyTechnological: Gas is the preferred choice for generation over renewables. Little technological innovation occurs in the energy sectorSocial: Consumers not engaged with energy efficiency. Low uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumpsEnvironmental: Targets are missed, no new environmental targets introduced
Slow Progression
Economic: Slow UK economic recoveryPolitical: Political will for sustainability but financial constraints prevent delivery of policiesTechnological: Renewable generation chosen over low carbon generation. Low levels of innovation in the energy sectorSocial: Engaged consumers focus on drive for energy efficiency but with low uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumps due to affordabilityEnvironmental: Environment targets missed but hit later. New European targets introduced
Low Carbon Life
Economic: Growing UK economyPolitical: Short term political volatility but long-term consensus around decarbonisationTechnological: Renewable generation at a local level. High innovation in the energy sectorSocial: High uptake of electric vehicles but consumers not focussed on energy efficiency. ‘Going Green’ is a by-product of purchasing desirable itemsEnvironmental: Carbon target hit. No new environmental targets introduced
Gone Green
Economic: Growing UK economyPolitical: Domestic and European policy harmonisation, with long-term certainty providedTechnological: High levels of renewable generation with high innovation in the energy sectorSocial: Engaged consumers focussed on drive for energy efficiency. This results in high uptake of electric vehicles and heat pumpsEnvironmental: All targets hit, including new European targets post-2020