Post on 04-Aug-2020
transcript
2015 Multifamily Market OverviewPresented by Dave Lockard, CBRE Central Midwest Multifamily
2/11/2015
1
2CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETAgenda
Big Data - the numbers don’t lie
The Survey says…
Sell! Sell! Sell!
If you build it, they will come
A peek into the future (including winning lottery numbers)
©2015, CBRE, Inc. We obtained the information contained herein from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified its accuracy and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is submitted subject to the possibility of errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, prior sale, lease or financing, or withdrawal without notice. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the property. You and your tax and legal advisors should conduct your own investigation of the property and transaction.
NATIONAL & LOCAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Big Data, the numbers don’t lie
2/11/2015
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4CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
The Price of Natural Gas2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: NASDAQ
5CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
The Price of Natural Crude Oil2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: NASDAQ
2/11/2015
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6CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
The Price of Coffee2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: NASDAQ
+
+
+
+
+
=
7CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Commercial Real Estate Cycle2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: CBRE
Phase IIIOversupply
Phase IIExpansion
Phase IVRecession
Phase IRecovery
Above Long-TermAvg. Occupancy
Below Long-TermAvg. Occupancy
RentsIncreasing
RentsDecreasing
2/11/2015
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8CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Where is Cincinnati in RE Investment Cycle?2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: CBRE
Optimism
Excitement
Thrill
Euphoria
Anxiety
Denial
Fear
Desperation
Panic
Capitulation
Despondency
Point of Maximum Financial Opportunity
Depression
Hope
Relief
Optimism
Point of Maximum Financial Risk
CINCINNATI, OH
9CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Fundamentals and Activity are Strong in All Asset Types2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: Real Capital Analytics as of 3Q 2014
Cap rates continue to decline, albeit at slower paces
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cap
Rat
e
Industrial 7.2%
Office-Sub7.1%Retail6.8%
Office-CBD5.6%
Multi-housing5.9%
Transaction volume increased year over year
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Tra
nsa
ctio
n V
olu
me
($ i
n b
illi
on
s)
Individual Portfolio Entity
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10CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Key Rates – Current & Historical
2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
1/2008 1/2009 1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 1/2013 1/2014
Prime Rate 7.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25% 3.25%
5-Year Treasuries 2.84% 1.86% 2.63% 2.13% 0.88% 0.89% 1.55% 1.52%
10-Year Treasuries 3.63% 2.83% 3.38% 3.41% 2.00% 2.00% 2.73% 2.00%
LIBOR (3-mo) 3.89% 2.83% 0.25% 0.30% 0.56% 0.30% 0.24% 0.25%
Source: *Bloomberg.com as of 02/09/2015 @ 8:01 AM and Bankrate.com
TODAY
11CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
10-Year Treasuries2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: Federal Reserve Bank, data through 02.02.15
0
2
4
6
Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
2/11/2015
6
12CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Demographic Snapshot - Greater Cincinnati MSA2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: Nielsen, 02/2015
POPULATION GROWTH
1,9
94
,83
8
2,1
14
,58
0
2,1
48
,09
4
2,1
81
,16
0
1,500,000
1,750,000
2,000,000
2,250,000
2000 Census 2010 Census 2015Estimated
2020Projected
2015 ESTIMATED INCOME (Based on 841,338 Households)
23%
23%31%
13%10% ≤ $24,999
$25,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
≥ $150,0000
2015 ESTIMATED AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE
2.50 Persons
2015 EST POPULATION BY AGE (Based on 2,148,094 Pop.)
24%
9%
13%27%
25%
2%
Under 18
18-24
25-34
35-54
55-84
85+
13CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Jobs –U. S. Unemployment Rate
2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate as of 12/2014
Ohio 4.8%
Nationwide 5.6%
Kentucky 5.7%
Indiana 5.8%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonally adjusted data through Dec 2014; ** GALLUP, “The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment by Jim Clifton, 2/3/15”
125
130
135
140
145
Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
Mill
ions
Total Historical Employment
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
Historical Employment – % Change Y-o-Y
“Gallup defines a good job as 30+ hours per week for an organization that provides a regular paycheck. Right now, the U.S. is delivering at a staggeringly low rate of 44%, which is the number of full-time jobs as a percent of the adult population, 18 years and older. We need that to be 50% and a bare minimum of 10 million new, good jobs to replenish America’s middle class.” **
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14CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
U.S. Economic Outlook2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: CBRE Research (employment forecasts); Oxford Economics (GDP forecasts as of 01.13.15)
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
03 07 11 15
Employment Forecasts - Change Y-o-Y 2014 = 1.8%
2015 = 2.1%
About 245,000 jobs/month
GDP Outlook
2014 = 2.4%
2015 = 3.3%
2016 = 2.9%
2017 = 2.7%
2018 = 2.7%
15CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Jobs – Cincinnati MSA Unemployment Rate2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian labor force and unemployment by state and metropolitan area”
Not Seasonally Adjusted
6.1%
4.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Dec
'05
Dec
'06
Dec
'07
Dec
'08
Dec
'09
Dec
'10
Dec
'11
Dec
'12
Dec
'13
Dec
'14
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MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Jobs – Comparative MSA Unemployment Rates2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Civilian labor force and unemployment by state and metropolitan area”
Not Seasonally Adjusted, as of December 2014p
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
Detroit, MI
Cleveland, OH
Indianapolis, IN
Lexington, KY
Toledo, OH
Dayton, OH
Cincinnati, OH
Akron, OH
Springfield, OH
Columbus, OH
6.7%
6.0%
5.4%
4.9%
4.8%
4.5%
4.3%
4.3%
4.1%
3.7%
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MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Greater Cincinnati Net Job Growth2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
(60,000)
(50,000)
(40,000)
(30,000)
(20,000)
(10,000)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors
2/11/2015
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MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Net Job Growth – Peer City Comparison2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2014p 2015p 2016p 2017p 2018p 2019p
Cincinnati, OH
Columbus, OH
Indianapolis, IN
Nashville, TN
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors
19CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Cincinnati Dayton Growth Corridor2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET 1
Ohio’s largest single-site employer
+ 27,500 employees
Wright-Patterson Air Force Base | Fairborn, Ohio
2 Austin Landing Retail
Teradata, Motoman, Thompson Hine, Lexis Nexis, and Kettering Health
Austin Road
3 Home to 10 Fortune 500 companies
Atrium Medical Center - 310 bed community hospital
Middletown
4 Outlet mall, Industrial parks, and Miami Valley Gaming
Monroe
5 $350,000,000 mixed-use development
West Chester Hospital continued expansion
Liberty Center
6 Distribution centerpiece
IKEA, Frontgate, GE Aviation, P&G, AK Steel, and more
West Chester – Union Centre Boulevard
1
2
3
4
5
7
6
7 $600 Million local payroll
$200 Million plant retrofit underway
GE | Evendale
I-75, “The Healthcare Highway:”• UC Hospital• Children’s Hospital• Kettering Health Network• Atrium Medical Center
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MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
General Electric - coming to The Banks2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
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MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Cincinnati Red’s Host 2015 All Star Games2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
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MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
No significant move to Homebuying yetTenure shift and demographics continue to support fundamentals
2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: CBRE Research . U.S. Census Bureau data through Q4 2014
Rental Tenure - % of Renter Households to Total
30.8
36.0
30
32
34
36
38
Q1 1965 Q1 1975 Q1-1985 Q1 1995 Q1 2005 Q1 2015
1965-2014 Average = 34.6%
Q4 85 – Q2 94 Average = 36.0%
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MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Greater Cincinnati MSA Homeownership Rate2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
56.0%
58.0%
60.0%
62.0%
64.0%
66.0%
68.0%
70.0%
20121Q
20122Q
20123Q
20124Q
20131Q
20132Q
20133Q
20134Q
20141Q
20142Q
20143Q
68.7%
65.1%
Source: Bureau of the Census, Homeownership Rates for 75 Largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas 2005-present (Q3 2014)
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24CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Cincinnati MSA Single Family Sales2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
*OH/IN Counties include: IN (Dearborn, Franklin, and Ohio), OH (Clermont, Hamilton, Warren, and Brown)KY Counties include: KY (Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, and Pendleton)
Source: Cincinnati Board of Realtors & Northern Kentucky Association of Realtors
Number of Single Family Sales*
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
OH/IN
KY
RENTS & OCCUPANCIES
The Survey says…
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MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Rents & Occupancy2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: CBRE Annual Rent and Occupancy Survey, YE2010-YE2014
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Overall
93.7%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Northwest
93.1%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
NKY
93.6%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
West
92.9%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
East
94.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Central
93.6%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Northeast
95.5%
Occupancy by Submarket
27CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Rents & Occupancy2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: CBRE Annual Rent & Occupancy Survey, YE2005-YE2014
Greater Cincinnati Overall Occupancy History
87.0%
88.0%
89.0%
90.0%
91.0%
92.0%
93.0%
94.0%
95.0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
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28CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Rents & Occupancy2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2014
National Rent Growth Forecast
3.02.5 2.5
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Annual Rent Change – US Forecast
29CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Rents & Occupancy2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
December 2011 December 2012 December 2013
Overall $0.79 $0.82 $0.86 $0.89
Northwest $0.69 $0.76 $0.78 $0.80
Northeast $0.88 $0.91 $0.96 $0.99
West $0.68 $0.73 $0.74 $0.77
East $0.78 $0.85 $0.89 $0.89
NKY $0.75 $0.75 $0.78 $0.79
Central $0.91 $0.92 $1.01 $1.07
Source: CBRE Annual Rent and Occupancy Survey, YE2010-YE2013
December2014
Average Effective Rent Per Square Foot
Overall Average Effective Rent with Year over Year % Change
2011
$7184.06%
2012
$7463.90%
2013
$7774.16%
2014
$8043.47%
Year:
Average Effective Rent:
YoY % Change:
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30CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Rents & Occupancy2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: CBRE, YE 2014 Rent & Occupancy Survey
2013 & 2014 Rent Increases by Submarket
3.5% 4.0%3.0%
4.7%
-0.7%
1.8%
6.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2013 2014
Overall Northwest Northeast West East NKY Central
31CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Rents & Occupancy2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: CBRE Annual Rent & Occupancy Survey, YE2005-YE2014
Greater Cincinnati Overall Effective Rent History
$600
$700
$800
$900
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
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MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Rents & Occupancy2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: CBRE Annual Rent & Occupancy Survey, YE2014
Effective Rent / Rent/SF / Occupancy by Class
Approximately 15% of Cincinnati MSA inventory is classified “A” grade. Strength of the recovery so far is fueled by Lifestyle Renter.
Eff
ectiv
e R
ent $
Occ
upan
cy %
33CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Rents & Occupancy2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Percentage of Properties Offering Concessions
Average Monthly Concessions by Style:
Source: CBRE Annual Rent & Occupancy Survey, YE2010-YE2014
2013 2014
Studio $29 $36
1 Bedroom $32 $43
2 Bedroom $39 $46
3 Bedroom $56 $47
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Concession Summary
2/11/2015
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34CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Rents & Occupancy2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: CBRE Annual Rent & Occupancy Survey, YE2005-YE2014
Vacancy vs. Rent Inflation
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
Dec'05
Dec'06
Dec'07
Dec'08
Dec'09
Dec'10
Dec'11
Dec'12
Dec'13
Dec'14
Vacancy
Rent Inflation
INVESTMENT MARKET
Sell! Sell! Sell!
2/11/2015
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36CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
2007-2014 National Multifamily Sales Activity2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
$106
$18
$103
$112
4,650
1,520
5,800
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
Bil
lio
ns
Consideration TransactionsSource: Real Capital Analytics
37CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Investment Market – Cincinnati Multifamily Sales*2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: CBRE; Sales over $1 Million or 100+ Units
Number of Apartment Units Sold
4,416
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Transaction Sales Volume
$0$50,000,000
$100,000,000$150,000,000$200,000,000$250,000,000$300,000,000 $299M
Average Apartment Price per Unit
$67,717
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
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38CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Investment Market – 2014 Sales*2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Pinnacle on Pleasant(FKA Village of Creekside)
Sale Date 11/2014
No. Units 228
Price per Unit $55,702
Year Built 1970
Submarket Northwest
Detail East Coast buyer from local Private Seller
Meadow Ridge
Sale Date 03/2014
No. Units 356
Price per Unit $48,455
Year Built 1997
Submarket Northwest
Detail Expiring LIHTC sale
Mallard Crossing
Sale Date 01/2014
No. Units 350
Price per Unit $113,686
Year Built 1997
Submarket Northeast
Detail TIC sale to REIT
Source: CBRE; *Sales over $1 Million or 100+ Units
39CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Investment Market – 2014 Sales*2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Plantation Apartments
Sale Date 12/2014
No. Units 896
Price per Unit $29,167
Year Built 1971
Submarket NKY
Detail Private local buyer / Private local seller
Westshore Apartments
Sale Date 11/2014
No. Units 37
Price per Unit $58,108
Year Built 1973
Submarket NKY
Detail Sold three times in last three years
Independence Oaks
Sale Date 11/2014
No. Units 144
Price per Unit $95,486
Year Built 2010
Submarket NKY
Detail Pittsburgh PA buyer
Source: CBRE; *Sales over $1 Million or 100+ Units
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MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Investment Market2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Greater Cincinnati MSA Cap Rate Trends
Source: CBRE
41CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Investment Market2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Greater Cincinnati MSA Cap Rate Trends
Source: CBRE
2/11/2015
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DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE
If you build it, they will come
43CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Current Inventory by Submarket2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: CBRE; *Units > 20
Submarket Overall Northwest Northeast West East NKY Central
AverageYear Built
1964 1973 1977 1965 1966 1969 1950
TotalNo. Units
100% 15.90% 10.23% 9.36% 11.74% 11.99% 16.39%
Total Number Units in Greater Cincinnati MSA =
± 160,000
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MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Development Pipeline2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: US Census
Cincinnati MSA Multifamily and Single Family Permits Issued (MF defined as 5+ units)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
9121,799
3,28
7
3,20
3
SF Permits
MF Permits
45CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Development Pipeline2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: US Census
Cincinnati MSA Multifamily Permits Issued (MF defined as 5+ units)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
280
743 862912
1,799
20-Year Average
1,655 10-Year Average
985 5-Year Average
919
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MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Development Pipeline2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Greater Cincinnati MF Units Built & Projected
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Proj.
2016Proj.
2017Proj.
1,447
2,4892,323
911
Source: CBRE
47CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
Development Pipeline2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Greater Cincinnati MF Units Built and Projected by Submarket per Year
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
West
NKY
East
Northwest
Northeast
Central
2014
2015P
2016p
2017p
Source: CBRE
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48CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETDevelopment Pipeline
Savoy at the Streets of West Chester
Location West Chester
Submarket Northwest
Developer Hills Communities
Detail Walkable to The Streets of West Chester featuring 272 luxury one- and two-bedroom units with luxury finishes and amenities
Delivery Date
Pre-leasing Now
49 Hundred
Location Blue Ash
Submarket Northeast
Developer Hills Communities
Detail Across from Towne Square in the heart of downtown Blue Ash; 266 units with luxury finishes and amenities
Delivery Date
Pre-leasing Summer 2015; Occupancy Late 2015
Hills Communities
49CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETDevelopment Pipeline
Liberty Center
Location Liberty Township at I-75 and SR 129
Submarket Northwest
Developer Steiner & Associates
Detail 240 units in a mixed-use town center with retail, dining, a hotel, and office; Managed by Towne Properties
Delivery Date
Fall 2015
Steiner & Associates
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50CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETDevelopment Pipeline
4th & Race
Location Downtown Cincinnati
Submarket Central CBD
Developer Flaherty & Collins
Detail 208 units in residential tower above a 950-space parking garage and 25,000 SF street-level retail
Delivery Date
2017
The Boulevard at Oakley Station
Location Oakley
Submarket East
Developer Flaherty & Collins
Detail 165 additional units in Phase II
Delivery Date
TBD
Flaherty & Collins
51CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETDevelopment Pipeline
MadMar Flats
Location Oakley
Submarket East
Developer Buckingham Companies
Detail 272 modern 1-, 2-, & 3-bedroom units with high-end features and amenities; Pursuing LEED for Homes certification
Delivery Date
Phase 1: August 2015Phase 2: October 2015
Buckingham Companies
2/11/2015
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52CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETDevelopment Pipeline
Seven at Broadway
Location Downtown Cincinnati
Submarket Central CBD
Developer North American/Northpointe
Detail Luxury apartment tower above existing parking garage with 111 units and rooftop terrace
Delivery Date
April, 2015
North American/Northpointe/Neyer
53CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETDevelopment Pipeline
VP3
Location Uptown – Vine Street
Submarket Central
Developer Uptown/North American Properties
Detail 149 furnished garden and townhome units with garage and surface parking; High-end amenities and finishes
Delivery Date
August, 2015
101 Corry
Location Mt. Auburn/Uptown
Submarket Central
Developer Uptown/North American Properties
Detail 108 Units (272 beds) with 2 level parking garage, amenity deck, fitness center, theater, and study rooms
Delivery Date
August, 2016
Uptown/North American
2/11/2015
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54CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETDevelopment Pipeline
Gantry
Location Hamilton Avenue – Old Northside
Submarket Central
Developer Milhaus Development
Detail Redevelopment of lumberyard and railroad depot into mixed-use with 131 apartments and 8,000 SF retail
Delivery Date
Late Summer 2015
Milhaus Development
55CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETDevelopment Pipeline
Loveland Station
Location Downtown Loveland
Submarket Northeast
Developer CMC Properties
Detail 1-, 2-, and 3-bedroom units in the heart of walkable downtown Loveland
Delivery Date
October 2015
CMC Properties
2/11/2015
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56CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETDevelopment Pipeline
Aqua on the Levee
Location Newport, KY
Submarket Northern Kentucky
Developer Capital Investment Group
Detail $80m development: 239 apartments, 800 parking spaces, 8,000 SF retail, and a 140 room Starwood Aloft Hotel
Delivery Date
2016
Avalon at the Pointe
Location Eastgate
Submarket East
Developer Capital Investment Group
Detail Upscale, urban development on Eastgate Blvd featuring 133 luxury units and a full amenity package
Delivery Date
Delivered June 2014
One Rookwood
Location Norwood at Rookwood Exchange
Submarket Central
Developer Jeffrey R. Anderson & Capital Investment Group
Detail Upscale 5-story elevator building; 127 units with upscale finishes; unparalleled location adjacent Rookwood Exchange
Delivery Date
2015
Capital Investment Group
57CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETDevelopment Pipeline
Gaslight Manor
Location Clifton
Submarket Central
Developer Gaslight Properties
Detail 117 apartments with condo finishes targeting young and medical professionals and empty nesters
Delivery Date
Spring, 2016
Gaslight Properties
2/11/2015
29
58CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
The Ohio River Trail
Once completed, the Ohio River Trail will span 23 miles along the north bank of the river from Coney Island through Downtown to Sayler Park
It will complete the connection from Downtown to the Little Miami Scenic Trail that will eventually extend to Lake Erie
Queen City-South Mill Creek Greenway Trail
When all phases are complete, the Mill Creek Trail will extend from the Hamilton County Fairgrounds in Carthage to the Ohio River.
From the mouth of the Mill Creek, the trail will extend east to the Cincinnati Riverfront Park, with connections to the Ohio River Trail traveling east and west to other regional and statewide trails
Little Miami Scenic Trail
Runs through five southwestern counties in Ohio and as of 2008, was the longest paved trail in the United States, stretching 76 miles from Springfield to Newtown, Ohio
The Hamilton County Park District intends to extend the Little Miami Scenic Trail to Clear Creek. From there, it will follow the Little Miami River to Magrish Preserve, just past LunkenField. At Kellogg Avenue, the trail will meet the Ohio River Trail.
Cincinnati MSA | Bike Trails2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Source: www.cincinnati-oh.gov/bikes/bike-infrastrusture/trails
FORECAST
A peek into the future (including winning lottery numbers)
2/11/2015
30
60CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETForecasts
Recap, 2014 Forecast
Suburban rent increases averaging 2.5%
In-fill rent increases averaging 4.0%
Occupancies averaging around 92.0%
Sale market picks up momentum in the 2nd half
Luxury apartment developments replacing condominiums as a housing preference
New developments will absorb rapidly
A big spring leasing season
2015 Forecast
Rent increases moderating to 3.0%
Sale market over $400 million
Development pipeline will grow even larger
More tear-downs and adaptive re-use
More challenges on legislative and governmental front
61CBRE | GCNKAA | 2015
MULTIFAMILY MARKET OVERVIEW
2015 MULTIFAMILY MARKETCBRE Central Midwest Multifamily
DAVELOCKARD, CCIMSenior Vice President
STEVELAMOTTE, JR., CCIMSenior Vice President
ANNNIEHAUSClient Services
EMILYCANTLEYSales Assistant
DANEWILSONVice President
CARRIEBALLARDClient Services Specialist
JOANNAYARBROUGHClient Services Coordinator
2/11/2015
31
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