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2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
www.gardnerresearch.com© 2014 Gardner Business Media, Inc. • All Rights Reserved
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2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDINGSURVEY AND FORECASTPRESENTED BY: Steve Kline
© 2014 Gardner Business Media, Inc. • All Rights Reservedwww.gardnerresearch.com
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
www.gardnerresearch.com© 2014 Gardner Business Media, Inc. • All Rights Reserved
2 of 27
ECONOMIC CYCLE OF CAPITAL SPENDING
• Most important economic data for forecasting capital spending globally
• Arrows show the lead/lag relationships between data points
• Scale shows the time relationship between data points
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
www.gardnerresearch.com© 2014 Gardner Business Media, Inc. • All Rights Reserved
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GLOBAL MACHINE TOOL CONSUMPTION/PRODUCTION
• Metalcutting and metal forming machines
• Data based on top 25 reporting countries to Gardner’s WMTS
• Accounts for roughly 95% of global machine tool market
• World consumption to grow 3.9% in 2015, which is down from 6.6% in 2014
• Production almost always changes at same rate as consumption
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0
9,000
18,000
27,000
36,000
45,000
54,000
63,000
72,000
81,000
90,000
World Production World Consumption
Mill
ions
of R
eal U
SD
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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REGIONAL MACHINE TOOL CONSUMPTION
• North America up 24.4%• Europe up 1.3%• Asia down 1.3%• South America down
18.4%• 2015 global increase in
consumption centered in North America• US up 30%• Mexico up 10%• Canada up 10%
Jan-
74
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
North America Europe Asia South America
Mill
ions
of R
eal U
SD
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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TOP 5 MACHINE TOOL CONSUMING COUNTRIES
• US #1 for first time since 2000; first time above $10.5 billion since WW2
• China on the decline since 2011
• Germany down but still historically strong
• Japan moderate growth but still relatively weak
• South Korea second strongest year ever
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75
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0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
13,500
15,000
China United States Germany South Korea Japan
Mill
ions
of R
eal U
SD
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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CHINA
• 2014 flat• 2015 down 10%• Money supply growth
slowing and rate of growth near two decade lows
• Industrial production growth slowing and slowest growth in more than a decade
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-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
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-200
-160
-120
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
160
200
M1 Industrial Production MT Consumption
Lead
ing
Indi
cato
r (12
-mo
ROC)
Real
Mac
hine
Too
l Con
sum
ption
(12-
mo
ROC)
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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GERMANY
• 2014 up 12%• 2015 down 8%• Money supply growth
about average but slowing significantly
• Capacity utilization growing faster but looking to peak
• Industrial production growing but likely has peaked
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-30
-24
-18
-12
-6
0
6
12
18
24
30
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
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40
60
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M1 Capacity UtilizationIndustrial Production MT Consumption
Lead
ing
Indi
cato
r (1
2-m
o RO
C)
Real
Mac
hine
Too
l Con
sum
ption
(12-
mo
ROC)
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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JAPAN
• 2014 up 40%• 2015 up 6%• Money supply growing
at a steadily accelerating rate but has peaked
• Capacity utilization growing at historically strong rate but has peaked
• Industrial production growing at fastest rates in almost five years but peaking
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-35
-28
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-14
-7
0
7
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35
-100
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0
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M1 Capacity UtilizationIndustrial Production MT Consumption
Lead
ing
Indi
cato
r (12
-mo
ROC)
Real
Mac
hine
Too
l Con
sum
ption
(12-
mo
ROC)
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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SOUTH KOREA
• 2014 up 13%• 2015 up 2%• Money supply growing
significantly but has peaked
• Capacity growing at a very slow rate and should grow even slower
• Industrial production growing at a minimal rate
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-60
-50
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-10
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-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
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125
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M1 Capacity UtilizationIndustrial Production MT Consumption
Lead
ing
Indi
cato
r (12
-mo
ROC)
Real
Mac
hine
Too
l Con
sum
ption
(12-
mo
ROC)
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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MEXICO
• 2014 down 8%• 2015 up 10%• Money supply growing
at an accelerating rate and should continue
• Capacity utilization contracting, but at a slower rate
• Industrial production growing marginally faster than previous year
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75
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15
-150
-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
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75
100
125
150
-90
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
M1 Capacity UtilizationIndustrial Production MT Consumption
Lead
ing
Indi
cato
r (12
-mo
ROC)
Real
Mac
hine
Too
l Con
sum
ption
(12-
mo
ROC)
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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THE CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY
• Survey forecasts planned spending for machine types, industries, regions, and plant sizes
• Survey goes to plants that subscribe to Modern Machine Shop, Production Machining, Moldmaking Technology, and Automotive Design & Production
• Machine tool survey sent to 28,000 facilities• Tooling/workholding survey sent to 10,000 facilities• Forecasts are created by projecting reported results across plant size
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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FORECAST ACCURACY
• Machine tool survey average error of 13% (ex. 2002, 2009)
• Tooling/workholding survey error rate almost double
• Unit forecast closer than survey in five of the last seven years
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Equipment Survey GBM Unit Forecast Tooling and Workholding Survey
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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U.S. MACHINE TOOL CONSUMPTION
• Capital Spending Survey 2015 projection is $8.8 billion
• 3rd highest year since 1980
• Increase of 37% from 2014
• 14 times consumption has increased more than 37%
• Average increase is 30%19
3719
3919
4119
4319
4519
4719
4919
5119
5319
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9519
9719
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0120
0320
0520
0720
0920
1120
1320
15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Nominal Consumption Real Consumption Avg. Real Consumption
Met
alcu
tting
Equ
ipm
ent (
billi
ons
of re
al $
)
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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U.S. TOOLING/WORKHOLDING CONSUMPTION
• Capital Spending Survey 2015 projection is $4.8 billion
• Highest year since at least 2002
• Increase of 7% from 2014
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Nominal Consumption Real Consumption Avg. Real Consumption
Tool
ing
& W
orkh
oldi
ng S
pend
ing
(bill
ions
of r
eal $
)
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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MONETARY BASE LEADS MACHINE TOOL CONSUMPTION
• Assuming QE ends in October
• Since 2009 monetary base is growing faster than historic average typically
• Monetary base leads machine tool consumption by 24 months
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-25
0
25
50
75
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125
Monetary Base MTC USMTO - Units USMTO - Dollars
Adju
sted
Mon
etar
y Ba
se (1
2-m
o RO
C)
Real
Mac
hine
Too
l Con
sum
ption
(12-
Mo
ROC)
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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BACKLOGS LEAD CAPACITY UTILIZATION
• Backlogs lead capacity utilization by 7 months
• Capacity utilization should reach 80% for first time since June 2000
• Capacity utilization could average more than 80% for 2015 for first time since 1998Ja
n-75
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01
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07
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09
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11
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13
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15
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
MBI
Bac
klog
Inde
x
Dur
able
Goo
ds C
apac
ity U
tiliz
ation
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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CAPACITY UTILIZATION LEADS MACHINE TOOL CONSUMPTION
• Capacity utilization leads machine tool consumption by 10 months
• Every time capacity utilization grows faster than 4% machine tool consumption increases at least 16%
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-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
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125
Capacity Utilization MTCUSMTO - Units USMTO - Dollars
Dur
able
Goo
ds C
apac
ity U
tiliz
ation
(12-
mo
ROC)
Real
Mac
hine
Too
l Con
sum
ption
(12-
mo
ROC)
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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MACHINE TOOL DEMAND CURVE
• 60% of the time consumption is above $8 billion when capacity utilization is above 80%
• 2015 would be 7th year of over consumption
• 4 years with more over consumption than forecast for 2015
60% 62% 64% 66% 68% 70% 72% 74% 76% 78% 80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90%0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2015
Capacity Utilization (annual average)
Real
Mac
hine
Too
l Con
sum
ption
(bill
ions
of $
)
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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METALWORKING BUSINESS INDEX LEADS MACHINE TOOL CONSUMPTION
• Business index leads machine tool consumption by 10 months
• Business index likely to peak in the next couple of months
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-50
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0
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30
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-100
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-25
0
25
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125
MBI MTC USMTO - Units USMTO - Dollars
Met
alw
orki
ng B
usin
ess
Inde
x (1
2-m
o RO
C)
Real
Mac
hine
Too
l Sal
es (1
2-m
o RO
C)
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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DURABLE GOODS PRODUCTION LEADS MACHINE TOOL CONSUMPTION
• Durable goods production continues to set record highs
• Production should accelerate through 2014 and decelerate in 1H 2015
• Production leads machine tool consumption by 15 months
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75
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77
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-20
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-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
Production MTC USMTO - Units USMTO - Dollars
Dur
able
Goo
ds P
rodu
ction
(12-
mo
ROC)
Real
Mac
hine
Too
l Sal
es (1
2-m
o RO
C)
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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MOTIVATION TO BUY A MACHINE
• Increase capacity at or above levels from mid 2000s
• Reduce costs has steadily fallen since 1993
• Process flexibility has stabilized
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
New machine to reduce costs Increase machine/equipment capacityMachine/process flexibility New products, modelsTighter quality standards Make instead of buy
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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MAJOR METALCUTTING EQUIPMENT TYPES
• Trends• Turning over
milling• Smaller over larger• Vertical over
horizontal• Additive is an indication
of interest• Interest in ancillary,
special, or dedicated machines is high
Equipment Type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Machining Centers 1,680.1 2,694.7 2,796.6 3,065.6 3,147.0 3,226.1
Turning Centers 647.8 1,230.3 1,317.2 801.7 1,128.9 1,582.1
Lathes 503.0 1,550.6 1,675.9 1,171.2 968.7 1,475.8
Grinding 131.8 254.3 458.8 391.3 455.6 697.0
Additive 44.0 47.7 37.0 267.4
EDM 58.1 60.4 106.7 92.5 133.3 204.6
Screw Machines 115.8 55.9 78.5 86.2 151.8 182.0
Other Metalworking 613.9 556.5 702.2 804.8 434.9 1,187.0
Total 3,750.6 6,402.7 7,180.0 6,460.9 6,457.2 8,822.0
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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MAJOR TOOLING TYPES
• Trends in tooling reflective of trends in machine types• Turning over
milling• Other tools such as
saws and taps
Equipment Type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Milling Tools 330.0 473.8 492.4 422.0 1,049.9 737.3
Drills 247.9 345.5 403.7 352.1 572.0 671.7
Stationary Tool Inserts 529.7 666.6 726.8 607.7 267.4 475.8
Turning Tools 146.3 184.2 167.3 234.2 205.9 324.2
Rotary Tool Inserts 516.9 629.8 552.4 475.6 268.6 309.6Grinding Wheels & Others Abrasives 157.1 121.7 81.6 119.2 171.4 161.4
Toolholders 133.4 214.1 235.1 259.0 240.4 146.9
Tool Presetters 42.0 33.0 51.3
Other Tooling 293.5 385.4 427.3 475.6 429.8 580.7
Total 2,354.8 3,021.1 3,086.6 2,987.4 3,238.4 3,458.9
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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MAJOR WORKHOLDING TYPES
• Increase in automated systems/transfer lines and decrease in flexible fixtures since 2012
• Chucks and other turning down the last two years
Equipment Type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Milling/Drilling 687.3 797.3 1,001.9 1,063.5 819.7 879.7
Turning 347.7 505.7 499.6 658.0 290.2 211.0
Grinding 86.4 84.2 85.0 122.7 58.5 39.1
EDM 13.0 17.6 20.9 50.9 32.0 22.6
Other 130.4 81.3 160.6 230.3 124.7 100.3
Total 1,264.8 1,486.1 1,768.0 2,125.4 1,325.1 1,252.7
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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TOP INDUSTRIES – MACHINE TOOLS
• Die/Mold• 2015 – $932.5• Up more than 50%
• Dropped from top industries• HVAC• Petrochemical
Processors
Industry 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Metalcutting Job Shops 1,139.9 2,063.3 1,835.5 1,803.1 2,233.4 2,469.7Machinery/Equipment 209.4 1,016.0 810.4 591.7 713.0 1,216.3Automotive 210.0 544.4 785.9 1,172.1 561.1 759.3Pumps/Valves/Plumbing Products 307.3 174.6 991.4 209.4 364.4 688.3Forming/Fabricating (non-auto) 421.2 491.5 581.9 504.5 244.4 493.6Industrial Motors/Hydraulics/ Mechanical Comp. 140.1 397.6 335.2 34.4 146.6 461.2Electronics/Computers/ Telecommunications 157.3 379.3 421.1 202.1 383.4 351.4Other Manufacturing 149.1 71.5 124.7 369.7 137.7 333.1Custom Processors 6.0 24.4 116.2 327.9Aerospace 346.0 802.5 494.8 538.6 167.4 307.4Primary Metals 0.7 2.3 280.0 230.0 290.2Non-Manufacturing 120.4 298.3 242.6Medical 35.4 155.3 228.1 113.0 264.1 207.4Oil/Gas-Field/Mining Machinery 319.9 58.4 42.3 139.7 235.1 165.8Off-Road/Construction Machinery 104.6 46.8 202.6 101.7 122.8 163.3Hardware 36.3 12.3 30.4 53.2 7.3 88.4Plastic/Rubber Product 1.5 26.3 25.0 77.3
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
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CONCERNS
• Sub-prime lending is driving automotive• Large aerospace orders that are notoriously cancelled• The end of QE?– Rising interest rates– Rising dollar– Falling stock market
• China real estate bubble• European (global?) bond bubble
2015 METALWORKING CAPITAL SPENDING SURVEY & FORECAST
www.gardnerresearch.com© 2014 Gardner Business Media, Inc. • All Rights Reserved
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ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
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