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Floyd Ciruli 777 Grant St., Ste 303, Denver, CO 80203 PH (303) 399-3173 FAX (303) 399-3147 www.ciruli.com
2016: The Year of the Outsider
CCI FoundationSummer Conference
Professor Floyd Ciruli
Crossley Center for Public Opinion ResearchJosef Korbel School of International Studies
University of Denver
June 2016
Korbel School 20161
Trump vs. Clinton:What Does it Mean for Colorado?
Topics
Both parties dealingwith major change/candidates not popular
Policy changes in 2017‒ Foreign‒ Domestic
Colorado candidatesand ballot issues
Swing state, greatplace to watch
Korbel School 20162
Year of the OutsiderHistorical Precedents
1964 Barry Goldwater
1968 Eugene McCarthy
1972 George McGovern/GeorgeWallace
1976 Jimmy Carter
1980 Ronald Reagan
1984 Gary Hart
1992 Ross Perot
1996 Pat Buchanan
2004 Howard Dean
2008 Barack Obama
2012 Herman Cain, Ron Paul
2016 Donald Trump, Ben Carson,Carly Fiorina, Bernie Sanders
Barry Goldwater George McGovernPhoto: Getty
Donald Trump Bernie Sanders
Korbel School 20163
Major Challenge to Parties
Donald Trump
John Kasich
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Republicans
Tea Party/working class revolt (limitedto no government)
Democrats
Income inequity, anti-Wall Street revolt(regulated to no capitalism)
Independents
Anti-gridlock, corruption, campaignfinance revolt (reform to no CitizensUnited)
Republicans
Tea Party/working class revolt (limitedto no government)
Democrats
Income inequity, anti-Wall Street revolt(regulated to no capitalism)
Independents
Anti-gridlock, corruption, campaignfinance revolt (reform to no CitizensUnited)
Europe and U.S.: 2008/09 Economic crisis,Demographic change, Migration, Ethnic, Race,Religious tension, Terror
Ted Cruz
Korbel School 20164
Colorado Outsider Characteristics
Pat Schroeder
Dick Lamm
Gary Hart
Ben Nighthorse Campbell
Tom Tancredo
John Hickenlooper
Pat Schroeder Tom Tancredo
John Hickenlooper Ben NighthorseCampbell
In Colorado, Independence andAnti-establishment Image and
Tone are Major Asset
Korbel School 20165
Clinton Close to Delegate Win;Sanders Won’t QuitDemocratic Delegate Race
Need 2,382 Delegates to Win; 906 Remaining Delegates
Delegates % Votes
Clinton
PledgesSuper delegates
1,769543
4614
13.0 million Needs 8% of remainingdelegates
Total 2,312 60
Sanders
PledgesSuper delegates
1,50144
391
10.0 million Needs 92% ofremaining delegates
Total 1,545 40
Total 3,857 19% delegatesremainingTotal Delegates 4,763 81
Photo
:Ric
hPedro
ncelli/
AP
Bernie SandersPhoto
:CN
NHillary Clinton
California:Clinton: RCP 50%,PPIC 46%, Hoover 51%Sanders: RCP 42%,PPIC 44%, Hoover 38%
Source: AP, RealClearPolitics, 2016Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2016
Korbel School 20166
Colorado Caucus – Rigged or Chaos?Presidential Primary is Back
Republicans – 60,000 riggedNo preference pollCruz – 34 delegatesTrump – 0 delegatesUnpledged – 3
Democrats – 120,000 chaosSuper delegatesSanders – 41 delegatesClinton – 25 delegatesSuper delegates – 13Clinton – 9 (Hickenlooper, Bennet, Polis, DeGette)
March 1 Super Tuesday to April 16 final convention
Republican State ChairSteve House
Democratic State ChairRick Palacio
Korbel School 20167
Who Will Have a More FunConvention: Trump or Clinton?
Different Conventions – Same Challenges
Trump Clinton
Location Cleveland PhiladelphiaDate July 18-21 July 25-28Delegates 2,472 – passionate
backers for nominee,but many conservativedissenters
4,765 – little passionfor nominee, butpassion for platform
Party Leadership Disgruntled, absent On boardEntertainment Value Very high, top
production valuesGood, but notexceptional
Viewership Very high Better if conflictLikely to Leave Unified Maybe Maybe
Korbel School 20168
Clinton vs. TrumpNow What? Highly Volatile, Very Negative. The Regret Election.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
34%29%
54%58%
50%
69%
Favorable-USA Unfavorable-USA Unfavorable-Metro Area
Favorability Rating of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump
Popularity of parties (R’s 62% unfavorable to D’s 50%,Pew, 4-28-16); Will party vote for candidates (Trump61%, Clinton 80%)?
Hillary ClintonPhoto: Spencer Pratt/Getty
Donald TrumpPhoto: IPWatchdog
NBC/WSJ 5-19-16Ciruli Associates 2016
Korbel School 20169
2016: Democratic Sweep – 1964, 1974 or Stalemate?Obama’s Approval Improves
President Obama’s Approval Ratings2012-2016
Metrics
• Obama spread – (+1%)• Congressional approval – 13%• Generic ballot test – Dems 2%• Direction, right – 26%• House 234, need 17/lost 13 (30)• Senate 45, need 6/won 9 (5)
Source: Real Clear Politics 2013/14/15/16Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2016
49% 50% 50%
54%52%
49%
40%44%
48%48% 48% 47%
42% 43%47%
56%
51% 49%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Approval Disapproval
Senate Majority LeaderHarry Reid
House Minority LeaderNancy Pelosi
SpeakerPaul Ryan
SenatorMitch McConnell
188 44 (2) 247 (+13) 54 (+9)
Korbel School 201610
Immigration Polarizing Two Continents:U.S., EU, German Politicians Struggle With Solutions
75%
63%
50%
59%
46%
54%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Mar. 2015 Sept. 2015 Oct. 2015 Dec. 2015 Jan. 2016 Feb. 2016
German Chancellor Angela MerkelWelcomes refugees, OpenBorders, Multi-Culturalism
Her Approval Rating Plummets in 2015
Source: Deutschlandtrend survey for AfD by Infratest Dimap,N1005, Feb. 26-27, ±3.1 percentage points
Angela Merkel
“Welcome to the Party, Pal”
Photo: YouTube
Nationalism, Nativism, Populism, Anti-Austerity
Korbel School 201611
Y Para Siempre (And Forever)
National Assembly employeesremove photos of latePresident Hugo Chávez inCaracas, January 6, 2016
Photo: AFP/Getty Images
Venezuelaparliamentary election,recall
Argentina electionpresidential/legislative
Brazil presidentialimpeachment
Cuba rapprochement
Korbel School 201612
Denver Metro Population Triples in 50 Years
Denver Metro Population1960 - 2016
Seven counties: Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson
YearDenver
Population % ChangeMetro
Population % ChangeDenver % of
Metro Population
1960 493,887 - 934,199 - 52%
1970 514,678 4 1,235,936 32 42
1980 492,365 -4 1,618,461 31 30
1990 467,610 -5 1,848,319 14 25
2000 554,636 19 2,400,570 30 23
2010 600,158 8 2,784,228 16 21
2016 682,000 14 3,077,000 10 22
Denver Drops From Half to a Fifthof Metro Population, But on Tear Today
Korbel School 201613
Denver, Pueblo and ChicagoCrime, Drugs, Gangs vs. Affordable Housing, Congestion
Direction of Your Community
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Denver Pueblo Chicago
58%
29%
18%
28%
54%
75%
14% 17%
6%
Right Direction Wrong Track Don't Know
Ciruli Associates 2016NYT/Kaiser 2016
Korbel School 201614
Colorado Congressional RacesNational Politics Has Impact
Scott Tipton Gail Schwartz
1. Diana DeGette gets primary/feelsthe Bern
2. Jared Polis, super delegate wantsleadership
3. Scott Tipton, Gail Schwartz andDonald Trump
4. Ken Buck, Ted Cruz campaign
5. Doug Lamborn primary
6. Mike Coffman funding race withMorgan Carroll, Nancy’s last stand
7. Ed Perlmutter for governor?(Salazar, Kennedy)
Mike Coffman Morgan Carroll
Korbel School 201615
Bennet is on DeckDemocrats Need to Hold the Seat in 2016
56-44
IllinoisNew HampshirePennsylvaniaOhioWisconsinNorth Carolina
Job Performance ApprovalDenver Metro Area Voters
Ciruli Associates, N300, 2016
Approve DisapproveDon’tKnow
Governor John Hickenlooper 61% 28% 11%President Barack Obama 57 38 5Senator Michael Bennet 49 26 25Senator Cory Gardner 34 35 31
Q: Let me ask you about your approval or disapproval of the jobperformance of some Colorado and national politicians.[ROTATED]
• Metro area – 56% of state• 65% of Democratic vote
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Republican U.S. Senate CandidatesColorado
Primary June 28, 2016Convention
Darryl Glenn
Petitions
Rob Blaha
Ryan Frazier
Jack Graham
Jon Keyser
2014 Governor Primary
Votes %
Bob Beauprez 116,773 30
Tom Tancredo 102,830 27
Scott Gessler 89,282 23
Mike Kopp 36,373 20
Total 384,747 100
2010 Senate Primary
Votes %
Ken Buck 209,638 52
Jane Norton 196,954 48
Total 406,592 100
Korbel School 201617
Hickenlooper Goes to D.C.Opposite of Woe
Governor Hickenlooper’s ApprovalAmong Metro Area Partisans – 61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Democrat Unaffiliated Republican
75%68%
34%
14%18%
58%
11% 12% 8%
Approval Disapproval Don't Know
Q: Let me ask you about your approval or disapproval of the job performance of someColorado and national politicians. [ROTATED]
Ciruli Associates, N300, 2016
Near end ofterm
Good atpolitics
Does he addvalue toticket?
Hart, Romer,Salazar?
Korbel School 201618
Single-Payer – ColoradoCareLosing in Metro Area – 30% in Favor to 43% Against
Denver Metro AreaPartisan Support and Opposition
Self-Description
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Democrat Unaffiliated Republican
44%
31%
9%
21%
47%
71%
35%
22% 19%
Vote For Vote Against Don't Know
Q: There will be a proposal, Amendment 69, on this November’s election ballot to createColoradoCare, a single-payer government run health care system for Colorado residents,partially paid for by a $25 billion dollar increase in state taxes. Will you vote for ballotAmendment 69 or vote against it?
Ciruli Associates, N600, 2016
“Between the Clintonand establishmentwing of the party
versus the Sanders,liberal, youth wing ofthe party, there aresome real tensions
and difference and itplays out in single-
payer.” (Colorado PublicRadio, 5-16)
Korbel School 201619
Environment/Gas and Oil/Local Control
Gas and oil development downfrom 2014
North Front Rangecommunities (NIMBY) lowerpriority
Gas and oil step up publicaffairs, public relations andadvertising
Where’s the money?
Environmentalism lost passionwith public – more partisan,more extreme, some wins,fewer problems
“It’s an extraordinaryamount of money forresearch and polling…”(ColoradoComplete, 5-27-16)
“You just don’t quitesense the edginess,the concern on thatissue the way you didtwo years ago.” (InsideEnergy, Corporation forPublic Broadcasting)
Korbel School 201620
Clinton vs. TrumpClose, Volatile, Mean
Clinton
Primary on until June 7(longer?)
Slight unfavorabilityadvantage
Obama’s approval 50%,electoral collegeadvantage/has theestablishment
Women, minorities
Commander in Chief
Not change agent
Not trusted
Problems with youth,independents
Trump
Primary over May 26
Record-high unfavorability
Establishment barelyonboard
Politically incorrect/veryresilient
Media savvy/counterpuncher
Not ideological
Strong leader
Change agent
Anglo men, especially non-college
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1972, 1992, 2002, 2014, 2016
Colorado Politics in the 1970s
1972 Olympic bid defeated 61%
1972 Wayne Aspinall, Mr. Chairman, defeated
1972 Pat Schroeder goes to Congress
1974 Nixon resigns (August)
1974 Dick Lamm, Gary Hart, Tim Wirth, Sam Brownelected
1974 Democrats take State House, lose it in 1976
Colorado Politics in the 2000s
OfficesAll Republican
2002All Democrat
2008Divided
2014 Results 2016
Governor Owens R Ritter D Hickenlooper D Same
U.S. Senate Campbell R Salazar D Bennet D ?
U.S. Senate Allard R Udall D Gardner R Same
Congress 5R, 2D 2R, 5D 4R, 3D ?
Colorado House 37R, 28D 27R, 37D 3 seats D ?
Colorado Senate 18R, 17D 14R, 21D 1 seat R ?
President Bush 8% (2000)Bush 5% (2004)
Obama 9% Obama 5% ?
Govs. (L to R) Dick Lamm, Bill Ritter, JohnHickenlooper, Bill Owens and Roy Romer at afundraiser at the governor’s mansion on Nov. 20.Photo: Bernard Grant/The Colorado Statesman