20160320 workshop seoul

transcript

Artificial Intelligence?Machine Learning?

JinYeong Bakjy.bak@kaist.ac.krSchool of Computing, KAIST

About Me• JinYeong Bak (jy.bak@kaist.ac.kr)

• Ph.D. student at KAIST, U&I Lab– MS degree at KAIST– BS degree at SKKU

• Research interests– Machine Learning– Computational Social Science

• Research interns– Microsoft Research Asia, 2013– United Nations Pulse Lab Jakarta, 2016

2016-03-202

INTRODUCTION

2016-03-203

AlphaGo

2016-03-204

AlphaGo• Computer program

– Developed by Google DeepMind– Play the board game Go

• Algorithm: a combination of– Artificial neural networks– Machine learning (reinforcement learning)– Monte Carlo tree search

2016-03-205

AlphaGo

2016-03-206

AlphaGo

2016-03-207

2016-03-208

Contents• Artificial Intelligence• My research

2016-03-209

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

2016-03-2010

Frequently Asked QuestionsAlphaGo wins Lee Sedol

2016-03-2011

Frequently Asked QuestionsAlphaGo wins Lee Sedol• Can AlphaGo win all people?

2016-03-2011

Frequently Asked QuestionsAlphaGo wins Lee Sedol• Can AlphaGo win all people?• Can AI control human being?

2016-03-2011

Frequently Asked QuestionsAlphaGo wins Lee Sedol• Can AlphaGo win all people?• Can AI control human being?• Can AI make the Terminator?

2016-03-2011

Frequently Asked QuestionsAlphaGo wins Lee Sedol• Can AlphaGo win all people?• Can AI control human being?• Can AI make the Terminator?• Do we all die?

2016-03-2011

Frequently Asked QuestionsAlphaGo wins Lee Sedol• Can AlphaGo win all people?• Can AI control human being?• Can AI make the Terminator?• Do we all die?

2016-03-2011

AlphaGo• Computer program

– Developed by Google DeepMind– Play the board game Go

• Algorithm: a combination of– Artificial neural networks– Machine learning (reinforcement learning)– Monte Carlo tree search

2016-03-2012

Artificial intelligenceThe intelligence exhibited by machines

2016-03-2013

Artificial intelligenceHow to create computers and computer software that are capable of intelligent behavior

2016-03-2014

Artificial intelligence - Types• Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)• Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)

2016-03-2015

Artificial intelligence• Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)

– Weak AI– Specializes in one area– Ex) AlphaGo, Siri, Spam mail filter, Translator, etc…

• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)• Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)

2016-03-2016

Artificial intelligence• Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

– Strong AI (Human level AI)– Be as smart as a human across the board– “a very general mental capability that, among other things,

involves the ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.”

• Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)

2016-03-2017

Artificial intelligence• Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)• Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)

– Be smarter than the best human brains in every field

2016-03-2018

Artificial intelligence• Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)• Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)• Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)

– Be smarter than the best human brains in every field

2016-03-2018

Intelligence• The ability to learn or understand things or to deal with new

or difficult situations

2016-03-2019

Intelligence• The ability to learn or understand things or to deal with new or difficult

situations• Capacity for

– Logic– Abstract thought– Understanding– Self-awareness– Communication– Learning– Emotional knowledge– Memory– Planning– Creativity– Problem solving

2016-03-2019

Human Intelligence Growth

2016-03-2020

2016-03-2021

2016-03-2022

2016-03-2023

2016-03-2024

AI is coming

2016-03-2025

Opinions on ASI Arrival

2016-03-2026

Opinions on ASI Arrival

2016-03-2027

Opinions on ASI Arrival• Optimism• Pessimism

2016-03-2028

Opinions on ASI Arrival• Optimism

– AIs can solve any problems– Humans can have eternal life

2016-03-2029

Opinions on ASI Arrival• Pessimism

– AIs work hard to achieve the goal

2016-03-2030

– AIs work hard to achieve the goal– AIs are amoral

• Not moral• Not immoral• Not involving questions of right or wrong

2016-03-2030

– Can Humans control ASI?• ASI is smarter than humans

2016-03-2030

In the future…

2016-03-2031

My opinionMore like optimismReasons

– The goal is given by human– Moral/Immoral is coming from human

2016-03-2032

My opinion

2016-03-2033

My opinion

2016-03-2033

My opinion

2016-03-2033

My opinion

2016-03-2033

My opinionMore like optimismReasons

– The goal is given by human– Moral/Immoral is coming from human– I am machine learning researcher

2016-03-2034

2016-03-2035

MY RESEARCH – BACKGROUND

2016-03-2036

Artificial intelligenceHow to create computers and computer software that are capable of intelligent behavior

2016-03-2037

Machine learning• Subfield of artificial intelligence • Study of pattern recognition and computational

learning theory

2016-03-2038

Topic modeling• Subfield of machine learning• Discovering the abstract "topics" that occur in a

collection of documents

2016-03-2039

Topic modeling - Introduction

2016-03-2040

2016-03-2041

2016-03-2042

2016-03-2043

2016-03-2044

• What are the topics discussed in the article?• How can we describe the topics?

2016-03-2045

Topic modeling - Assumption

2016-03-2046

2016-03-2047

2016-03-2048

2016-03-2049

Topic modeling

2016-03-2050

Olympic

Topic proportion of each document

Topic modeling

2016-03-2050

Olympic

Topic modeling

2016-03-2050

Olympic

Topic modeling

2016-03-2050

korea south korean kim lee

music album song single live

olympic summer medal gold winter

Word distribution of each topic

Olympic

Topic modeling

2016-03-2050

korea south korean kim lee

music album song single live

olympic summer medal gold winter

Word distribution of each topic

Olympic

Topic modeling• Inputs

– Document corpus– Parameters

2016-03-2051

• Models– LDA– HDP

2016-03-2051

• Inferences– Gibbs sampling– Variational Inference

2016-03-2051

• Outputs– Topics– Topic proportions

2016-03-2051

MY RESEARCH – ONLINE LEARNING

2016-03-2052

2016-03-2053

Documents size

2016-03-2054

New documents

2016-03-2055

Previous approach problem

2016-03-2056

My suggestion

2016-03-2057

My suggestion

2016-03-2057

My suggestion

2016-03-2057

My suggestion

2016-03-2057

My suggestion

2016-03-2057

My suggestion

2016-03-2057

My suggestion

2016-03-2057

My suggestion

2016-03-2058

My suggestion

2016-03-2058

Results

2016-03-2059

MY RESEARCH – COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE

2016-03-2060

Computational Social Science• Computational approaches to the social sciences• Computers are used to model, simulate, and analyze

social phenomena• Fields

– Computational economics– Computational sociology– Computational psychology

2016-03-2061

My research• Self-disclosure in Twitter conversation• Leadership in the AJD

2016-03-2062

Leadership• A process of social influence in which a person can

enlist the aid and support of others in the accomplishment of a common task [Chemers. 2014]

2016-03-2063

Leadership• A process of social influence in which a person can

enlist the aid and support of others in the accomplishment of a common task [Chemers. 2014]

• The ability to – Influence other people– Get them to do something significant

• Energizing people toward a goal [Mills. 2005]

2016-03-2063

Leadership Styles [Lewin, et al. 1939]

2016-03-2064

• Autocratic– Get little input from group members– Control over all decisions

2016-03-2065

• Laissez-Faire– Give little guidance to group members– Leave them to decision-making

2016-03-2065

• Laissez-Faire– Give little guidance to group members– Leave them to decision-making

• Democratic– Encourage group members to participate– Retain the final say in the decision-making

2016-03-2065

Leadership Styles• Target people

– School children [Lewin, et al. 1939]

– Work employee [Hoel. 2010]

– USA president [Bligh, et al. 2004] & Prime minister [Kaarbo. 1997]

2016-03-2066

• Relationships [Van. 2006]

– Age– Health– Context

2016-03-2066

• Relationships [Van. 2006]

– Age– Health– Context

• How about the kings in the old times?

2016-03-2066

Research Questions1. Do kings show different kinds of leadership styles?

2016-03-2067

Research Questions1. Do kings show different kinds of leadership styles?2. What factors are related with kings’ leadership?

– Context/Topics?– Members?– Time?

2016-03-2067

Dataset• What kinds of data are needed?

2016-03-2068

Dataset• What kinds of data are needed?• Requirements: records of king’s official duty activities

– Discussions with government officials– King’s decisions– Long and large dataset

2016-03-2068

Dataset• What kinds of data are needed?• Requirements: records of king’s official duty activities

– Discussions with government officials– King’s decisions– Long and large dataset

• My answer: The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty

2016-03-2068

The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty• Series of books which describe about historical facts

in Joseon dynasty• 1,893 books, 380,271 articles• 472 years (1392 – 1863)

2016-03-2069

The Joseon Dynasty• Ancient kingdom in Korean peninsula

2016-03-2070

Civilization V - Civilization and Scenario Pack: Korea

2016-03-2070

Sejongthe Great

– From 1392 to 1897– 27 kings– Capital city: Seoul– Religion: Neo-Confucianism

2016-03-2071

The Joseon Dynasty• Monarchial system

– King governs the nation– King decides on official issues– King discusses it with government officials

2016-03-2072

2016-03-2072A screenshot of a historical drama - Yi san

2016-03-2072

A screenshot of a historical drama - Yi san

2016-03-2072

Government officials

2016-03-2072

Government officials

historiographers

The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty• Contents

2016-03-2073

– Human resources• Employment & Dismissal• Person information

2016-03-2073

– Government issues• Military• Tax & Population

2016-03-2073

– Diplomatic relations• China• Japan

2016-03-2073

– Judgements• Punishment• Remission

2016-03-2073

– Judgements• Punishment• Remission

– Observations• Astronomical phenomena• Weather

2016-03-2073

The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty• National Institute of Korean History (http://www.history.go.kr)

– Translated it to modern Korean

2016-03-2074

– Translated it to modern Korean– Tagged meta information

• Title• Category (political, economic, social and cultural)• Entity (person, location, nation)

2016-03-2074

– Translated it to modern Korean– Tagged meta information

• Title• Category (political, economic, social and cultural)• Entity (person, location, nation)

– Published on the web• http://sillok.history.go.kr

2016-03-2074

The Annals of the Joseon Dynasty

2016-03-2075

2016-03-2076

TitleTime

2016-03-2076

TitleTime

2016-03-2076

Metainformation

2016-03-2077

Combining two local districts

2016-03-2077

Official A

2016-03-2077

Official A

“It’s reasonable to combine two local districts.”

2016-03-2077

Official A

2016-03-2077

Official A

“How should we handle this?”

2016-03-2077

Official A

Official B

Official C

2016-03-2077

Official A

Official B

Official CThe king follows

Official C’s suggestion.

Methodology• Identify relevant articles

– To avoid non-governmental affairs (e.g. observations)– Look at the kings words and decisions– 126K, 36% over all articles

2016-03-2078

Methodology• Identify relevant articles

– To avoid non-governmental affairs (e.g. observations)– Look at the kings words and decisions– 126K, 36% over all articles

• Identify king’s final decisions in the article– Build sixty candidate verbs

• Order: 명하다, 命• Approve: 윤허하다, 允• Disapprove: 불허하다, 不允• Reject: 따르지않았다, 不從• Follow: 따르다, 從之

– Look at the verbs in king’s last sentence and title

2016-03-2078

Ruling styles• Arbitrary Decision (AD)

• Discussion and Order (DO)

• Discussion and Follow (DF)

2016-03-2079

– Like autocratic style– No discussion with officials– Orders directly

• Discussion and Order (DO)

2016-03-2079

• Discussion and Order (DO)– Like democratic style– Discussion with officials– Orders, approves, or rejects at the end

2016-03-2079

• Discussion and Order (DO)– Like democratic style– Discussion with officials– Orders, approves, or rejects at the end

• Discussion and Follow (DF)– Like laissez-faire style– Discussion with officials– Follows officials suggestion

2016-03-2079

Ruling styles

2016-03-2080

• Arbitrary Decision (AD) example

Ruling styles

2016-03-2080

• Arbitrary Decision (AD) example

“Remove all fences at the gates”

Ruling styles

2016-03-2081

• Discussion and Order (DO) example

Agency A

Official B

Official C

Ruling styles

2016-03-2081

Agency A

Official B

Official C

“Please interrogate a suspect”

Ruling styles

2016-03-2081

Agency A

Official B

Official C

“I don’t want to do that. Don’t ask me about that again”

“Please interrogate a suspect”

Ruling styles

2016-03-2082

• Discussion and Follow (DF) example

Official A

Official B

Official CThe king follows

Official C’s suggestion.

Research Question 11. Do kings show different kinds of leadership styles?

2016-03-2083

Results – Among kings

2016-03-2084

• Each king shows different ruling style– Multinomial test between king’s ruling style distribution ( < 0.001)

Results – Among kings

2016-03-2084

• Each king shows different ruling style– Multinomial test between king’s ruling style distribution ( < 0.001)

• Tyrants (Yeonsangun, Gwanghaegun) show high value of AD

Research Question 22. What factors are related with kings’ leadership?

– Context/Topics?– Members?– Time?

2016-03-2085

Methodology• Discover topics in each article

– LDA [Blei et al. 2003] with 300 topics– LDA outputs a topic proportion for each article– LDA outputs a multinomial word distribution for each topic

2016-03-2086

Methodology• Discover topics in each article

– LDA [Blei et al. 2003] with 300 topics– LDA outputs a topic proportion for each article– LDA outputs a multinomial word distribution for each topic

• Identify who said what– To analyze the participants in the discussion– Look at subjects and person tags in front of the sentence

of each quote– 20K people/agencies

2016-03-2086

Results - TopicsRetirement Agriculture Remission Grants신하 곡물 죄 한필

은퇴 마을 법 한구획

지위 한구획 전하 하사

사람 창고 관여 안장

유능 사람 용서 한지역

일 쌀 찬성 한구역

의무 저장 반란 호필

직 흉년 사람 외피

2016-03-2087

Investigate the effects o

Results - Topics

2016-03-2088

Sejong the Great

Yeonsangun

Results - Topics

2016-03-2088

Sejong the Great

Yeonsangun

Results - Topics

2016-03-2088

Sejong the Great

Yeonsangun

Investigate the effects o )

• ResultsDifferent from overall( )

Results - Topics

2016-03-2088

Sejong the Great

Yeonsangun

• Remission of sins topic– Kings act DO than overall– Injo tends to DF

Results - Topics

2016-03-2089

Sejong the Great

Yeonsangun

• Remission of sins topic– Kings act DO than overall– Injo tends to DF

• Granting rewards topic– Sejong the Great acts DF– Yeonsangun acts arbitrarily– Injo tends to give grants to

servants than overall

Results - Topics

2016-03-2089

Sejong the Great

Yeonsangun

Results - Members• Investigate the effects of the participants in a discussion

– Compute the mutual information among ruling styles

2016-03-2090

– Compute the mutual information among ruling styles• Results

– Discussion and Order• Chief secretary• Local government officials

2016-03-2090

– Compute the mutual information among ruling styles• Results

– Discussion and Order• Chief secretary• Local government officials

– Discussion and Follow• Central government officials• Crown prince• Agency officials who remonstrate to the king

2016-03-2090

Results – Time

• Investigate the changes over time– Look at the temporal difference of a king

2016-03-2091

Yeonsangun Injo

Results – Time

• Investigate the changes over time– Look at the temporal difference of a king

• Results– Yeonsangun becomes more arbitrary over time– Injo stays consistent in his ruling style

2016-03-2091

Yeonsangun Injo

Conclusion• AIs are getting strong

– The singularity is near– Optimistic? Pessimistic?

2016-03-2092

• I am machine learning researcher– Making algorithms and models for specific problems– Analyzing (text) dataset– Helping to make ASI

2016-03-2092

• I am machine learning researcher– Making algorithms and models for specific problems– Analyzing (text) dataset– Helping to make ASI

2016-03-2092

Reference• Chemers, M. (2014). An integrative theory of leadership. Psychology Press.• Mills, D. Q. (2005). Leadership: How to lead, how to live. MindEdge Press.• Lewin, K., Lippitt, R., & White, R. K. (1939). Patterns of aggressive behavior in

experimentally created “social climates”. The Journal of Social Psychology, 10(2), 269-299.

• Bligh, M. C., Kohles, J. C., & Meindl, J. R. (2004). Charting the language of leadership: a methodological investigation of President Bush and the crisis of 9/11. Journal of Applied Psychology, 89(3), 562.

• Hoel, H., Glasø, L., Hetland, J., Cooper, C. L., & Einarsen, S. (2010). Leadership styles as predictors of self-reported and observed workplace bullying. British Journal of Management, 21(2), 453-468.

• Kaarbo, J. (1997). Prime minister leadership styles in foreign policy decision-making: A framework for research. Political Psychology, 553-581.

• Blei, D. M., Ng, A. Y., & Jordan, M. I. (2003). Latent dirichlet allocation. the Journal of machine Learning research, 3, 993-1022.

• Van Vugt, M. (2006). Evolutionary origins of leadership and followership. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 10(4), 354-371.

2016-03-2093

Reference• http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-

intelligence-revolution-1.html• http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-

intelligence-revolution-2.html• http://www.singularity.com

2016-03-2094

Image sources• http://www.popsci.com/microsoft-makes-ai-easier• http://kevinbinz.com/tag/machine-learning/• http://onhech.blogspot.com/2013/10/laissez-faire-

leadership-is-less-more.html• http://www.imbc.com/broad/tv/drama/isan/preview/16

73111_23417.html• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseon• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Peninsula• http://store.steampowered.com/app/99612• http://sillok.history.go.kr• http://sillok.history.go.kr/viewer/viewtype1.jsp?id=kda_

10103027_005

2016-03-2095

2016-03-2096

Thank you!Any questions or comments?

JinYeong Bakjy.bak@kaist.ac.kr

U&I Lab, KAIST

20160320 workshop seoul

Self Improvement