Post on 11-Apr-2017
transcript
FTTH Panorama LATAM Market at September 2016
Roland MONTAGNE - Director, Principal Analyst - IDATE +33 680 850 480 - r.montagne@idate.org
FTTH Panorama LATAM - Agenda 1. Study background
• Objectives • Available results
2. FTTH/B in Latin America • Overview • Overall figures
3. LATAM FTTH/B main trends • FTTH/B subscribers • FTTH/B Homes Passed distribution • FTTH/B Homes Passed in total HH • Top 10 countries in terms of % of FTTH/B Homes Passed in total Households
4. Challenges / drivers for FTTH/B in LATAM
5. Forecasts up to 2021
1. Study background
Study Background • Mission on behalf of the FTTH Council, LATAM • Objective: to provide a complete summary of the status of FTTH/B in LATAM
- 17 countries analyzed (1)
- Distinction between architecture: FTTH/B vs FTTN (FTTN/C+VDSL, FTTLA, FTTx+LAN) - FTTH/B Definition by FTTH Councils Worldwide (2)
• Characterization of each project includes:
- Organization initiating the project - Key parameters & Figures - Technical & Architecture parameters - Financing & Business model
• Methodology use - Desk research - Direct contacts with FTTH players (questionnaires, phone interviews) & IDATE’s partners in LATAM - Information exchange with FTTH Council, LATAM chapter members
(1) Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay
(2) FTTH/B definition available here
2. FTTH/B in Latin America
A year where alternative ISP and Municipalities are leading the FTTH/B evolution • A positive evolution: 82 FTTx projects in the region
• Players different from incumbents have deployed fibre in a dynamic way from 2015 to September 2016 covering with fibre more homes:
• Municipalities / Power Utilities have grown 33% • Alternative operators growth: 19% • Incumbents: Growth rate about 5%
Incumbents:
4 161 000 FTTH/B
Homes Passed
Municipalities / Utilities:
190 800 FTTH/B
Homes Passed
Alternative Operators:
18 987 187
FTTH/B Homes Passed
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
FTTH/B is taking a bigger place in the LATAM Market due to a positive evolution in the deployment and user’s adoption…
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
4 552 698 FTTH/B
subscribers by Sept. 2016
in LATAM
23 352 987 FTTH/B Homes
Passed by Sept. 2016 in
LATAM
25% growth from 2015
18% growth from 2015
19.5% FTTH/B Take
up rate by Sept. 2016 in
LATAM
+1.4 points from December 2015
Take up rate = FTTH-B subs / Total FTTH-B Homes Passed
3. LATAM FTTH/B main trends
It has been a period with Mexico and Brazil as the leading countries but also there has been an interesting evolution in the Caribbean region….
• Mexico is still leading the LATAM FTTH/B market with 1.585 million subscribers
- +23% of subscribers Dec-15 to Sep-16 - Telmex is leading the retail market - However, TotalPlay has entered to the big race increasing the FTTH/B homes passed by 35% in Sep 2016 and the FTTH/B subs in Sept 2016 by 64% from Dec 2015
• Brazil is reaching Mexico in the LATAM FTTH/B market with 1.572 million subscribers
- +26% of subscribers Dec-15 to Sep-16 - Telefónica continues its development plan investing in fibre deployment between 2015 and 2017 and extending agreement with the regulator in order to provide FTTH services in new cities. - Hundreds of local ISPs involved, but in limited geographical rollouts
• Antel in Uruguay is one of the two most involved incumbents in the region (570,000 FTTH/B subs)
- Even if the trend of FTTH/B subscribers growth is decreasing at + 4% Dec-15 to Sep-16, 48% of FTTH/B HP have opted for a service based on FTTH connection - National coverage: the coverage is considered as exhaustive in Uruguay - Among the leading countries in the global ranking with a penetration rate (1) over 60% by September 2016
• Strong growth rates in smaller markets, confirming a general trend towards FTTH/B in the region, specially in the Caribbean
- Barbados +322%, Jamaica +1000%, Trinidad y Tobago 463%! And Peru : 262% - Colombia +41%, Bolivia +40%
(1) Penetration rate = number of FTTH/B subscribers over total number of Households Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
0%200%400%600%800%
1000%1200%1400%1600%1800%2000%
… it can be also appreciated a good evolution in lower scale markets such as Jamaica, Trinidad, Barbados and Peru…
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
Total FTTH/B Subscribers by country % variation from Dec-2015 to Sept-16 in the number
of FTTH/B Subscribers by country
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1 000
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K (T
hous
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While Mexico and Brazil are the leaders in homes passed, significant deployment are also performed in other smaller LATAM Markets…
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
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Trinidad: Flow, Digicel & Massy deployments
Peru: Player « Voy » has reached more homes during the period
Jamaica: Flow & Digicel deployments
Total FTTH/B Homes Passed by country % variation from Dec-2015 to Sept-16 in the number of FTTH/B Homes Passed by country
Top 10 countries in terms of % of FTTH/B Homes Passed in total Households
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
Uruguay: 100%
Barbados: 95%
Jamaica: 45%
Mexico: 33%
Trinidad & Tobago: 27%
Brazil: 13%
Bahamas: 12%
Ecuador: 12%
Colombia: 11%
Chile: 11%
• Number of Homes Passed not representative of effective coverage
• Here, the ratio represented is % of FTTH/B Homes Passed in total households
- 2 countries > 90% !!! - 3 countries > 20% - 5 countries over 10%
• Argentina: 8.5%
Regarding FTTH/B technologies…
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
94%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
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90%
100%
Main Fibre architecture deployed (*) in %
Sept-2016
FTTB
FTTH
*Home Passed segmentation Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
95%
5%
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20%
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Main Fibre technology deployed (*) in %
Sept-2016
Ethernet
GPON
Aerial vs Underground • Fibre deployment in LATAM is
perfomed in a big portion by aerial means.
• Electricity and telephone poles are commonly used.
• In countries like Barbados, the ratio is 95% aerial vs. 5% underground.
• In Brazil it is estimated 80% aerial vs 20% underground
• In Mexico the ratio is estimated in 60% aerial vs 40% underground
4. Challenges / drivers for FTTH/B in LATAM
A FTTH/B penetration rate that is continuously increasing
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
Uruguay: 48%
Barbados: 19%
Jamaica: 9%
Mexico: 5%
Trinidad & Tobago: 10.4%
Brazil: 2.3%
Ecuador: 2.6%
Colombia: 1.8%
Chile: 4.3%
• LATAM has continued the trend to deploy FTTH/B
- 10 countries among 17 studied are in the Global Ranking:
• Uruguay in the Top 7 in the world!
• 2 countries with a penetration rate > 10%
• 7 other countries with a penetration rate from 1% to 10%
Puerto Rico: 3.4%
Penetration rate = FTTH/B subscribers over total number of households
Key points
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
• LATAM users want more reliable Internet services with higher bandwidth: Players are now convinced that FTTH access is the end game. Low quality of existing copper as a driver: Telcos are betting on FTTH/B to promise innovative services and higher speed rates
• The competition between cablecos and telcos is a driver for FTTH/B. Some cablecos also investing in Fiber access
• Players with presence in several countries in the region have realized about the importance to migrate cooper infrastructure towards fibre.
• In most of cases, FTTH/B and LTE are together deployed in LATAM
• Several Governments in LATAM have promoted the creation of National Fibre Networks Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Costa Rica
5. Forecasts up to 2021
A positive evolution in LATAM towards FTTH/B
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
• It is estimated 8.3 Million FTTH/B subscribers and more than 47.1 Million Homes Passed by 2021
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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mill
ions
TOTAL FTTH/B subscribers
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10
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45
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2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mill
ions
TOTAL FTTH/B Homes Passed
FTTH/B LATAM Forecast per country
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
0200 000400 000600 000800 000
1 000 0001 200 0001 400 0001 600 0001 800 0002 000 000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Argentina FTTH/B Forecast
FTTH/B subs FTTH/B Homes Passed
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Barbados FTTH/B Forecast
FTTH/B subs FTTH/B Homes Passed
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Bolivia FTTH/B Forecast
FTTH/B subs FTTH/B Homes Passed
FTTH/B LATAM Forecast per country
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
02 000 0004 000 0006 000 0008 000 000
10 000 00012 000 00014 000 00016 000 00018 000 00020 000 000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Brazil FTTH/B Forecast
FTTH/B subs FTTH/B Homes Passed
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Chile FTTH/B Forecast
FTTH/B subs FTTH/B Homes Passed
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Colombia FTTH/B Forecast
FTTH/B subs FTTH/B Homes Passed
FTTH/B LATAM Forecast per country
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Costa Rica FTTH/B Forecast
FTTH/B subs FTTH/B Homes Passed
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
1 600 000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Ecuador FTTH/B Forecast
FTTH/B subs FTTH/B Homes Passed
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jamaica FTTH/B Forecast
FTTH/B subs FTTH/B Homes Passed
FTTH/B LATAM Forecast per country
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
02 000 0004 000 0006 000 0008 000 000
10 000 00012 000 00014 000 00016 000 00018 000 00020 000 000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mexico FTTH/B Forecast
FTTH/B subs FTTH/B Homes Passed
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Peru FTTH/B Forecast
FTTH/B subs FTTH/B Homes Passed
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Puerto Rico FTTH/B Forecast
FTTH/B subs FTTH/B Homes Passed
FTTH/B LATAM Forecast per country
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Trinidad & Tobago FTTH/B Forecast
FTTH/B subs FTTH/B Homes Passed
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Uruguay FTTH/B Forecast
FTTH/B subs FTTH/B Homes Passed
Muchas Gracias!
Contact Roland MONTAGNE
Director, Principal Analyst +33 680 850 480 r.montagne@idate.org
Fiber for the ZZZ Generation !!