Post on 13-Apr-2017
transcript
2017 Land Market Survey
National Association of REALTORS® Research Division Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Senior Vice President & Chief EconomistDanielle Hale, MS, Managing Director, Housing ResearchGay Cororaton, MS, Research Economist
REALTORS® Land InstituteAubrie Kobernus, MBA, Chief Executive OfficerJessa Friedrich, MBA, Marketing Manager
Presented By
President’s Message“As the 2017 National President of the REALTORS® Land Institute (RLI), “The Voice of Land,” I am proud to release this one of a kind report to the industry. The pertinent information included is an aggregation of survey results collected from land and commercial real estate professionals across the United States. Every year, in partnership with the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) Research Department, RLI conducts and publishes this survey for the benefit of real estate professionals across the industry to use as a benchmarking resource. We want to thank everyone who took the time to contribute to this survey, as well as, NAR for continuing to support our efforts to bring vital information to brokers and agents across the country. For a digital copy of the survey and more information, please visit rliland.com/land-markets-survey”
-Brandon Rogillio, ALC 2017 RLI National President
About the SurveyObjective To gather information about land transactions among land
real estate professionals during the reference period of October 2015–September 2016 and on their outlook for the period October 2016–September 2017.
Timeframe NAR + RLI conducted the online survey from October 5–
November 22, 2016.
Participants 614 respondents (614 in the October 2015 survey), 505 of
which closed a land transaction.
Note: The REALTORS® Land Institute sent out the survey to 13,388 members and prospective members. NAR conducted the online survey from October 5–November 22, 2016. To correct for under- and over-response across regions and countries, NAR weighted the sample responses by a factor that aligns the regional distribution of responses to the regional distribution of members and non-members provided by REALTORS® Land Institute (see Technical Appendix, last page).
Surv
ey R
egio
ns
Respondent Distribution
Region
1
Region
2
Region
3
Region
4
Region
5
Region
6
Canad
a
Latin
America/
Caribb
ean
Other In
terna
tiona
l
93117
218 212
117
4773
120150
183
107
2856
8
52
97124
143
90
3656
4 12
66
115148 161
63
25 310 5
Number of Respondents by Main Business Region
Jul 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Comparative Distribution of Respondents by Main Business Region in the Various Surveys.
Professional Membershipof Respondents
*Multiple responses allowed so percent shares will not sum up to 100 percent during survey period.
REALTORS® Land Institute
NAR CCIM Other
63%
80%
13%
35%
52%
76%
10%
31%
61%70%
8%21%
59%73%
9%
30%
Jul 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Survey Highlights
Recreational and residential land accounted for about 50% of U.S. closed land transactions between October 2015‒September 2016.
On average, the dollar volume of U.S. land sales increased by 2% between October 2015‒September 2016 compared to the previous 12-month period (2% in the October 2015 survey). ◦ Sales increased the most for timber land at
5% and residential land at 4%.◦ Agricultural irrigated land sales fell by 1%.◦ Commercial land sales rose at a slower pace
of 1% (compared to 3% in the October 2015 survey).
Survey Highlights Continued…
On average, U.S. land prices (in dollars per acre) rose at a slower pace of 1% from September 2015 to September 2016 versus 2% in the prior year (in part due to the decline in agricultural land prices). ◦ Prices of agricultural irrigated land decreased
by 1% and non-irrigated land by 2%, likely related to the slump in commodity prices.
◦ Land prices increased the most for timber land at 5% and residential land at 3%.
◦ Commercial land prices rose at a slower pace of 1%(compared to four percent in the October 2015 survey).
Survey Highlights Continued…
On average, respondents expect U.S. land sales volumes to increase by 2% between October 2016‒September 2017 compared to the October 2015‒September 2016 period.◦ Timber, residential, and greenfield
development land are expected to post the strongest growth rates at 3%.
◦ Agricultural non-irrigated land sales are expected to grow by 1% and sales for agricultural irrigated land are expected to remain the same as in 2016.
Survey Highlights Continued…
On average, respondents expect U.S. land prices (in dollars per acre) to increase at a modest pace of 1% from September 2016 to September 2017.◦ Timber and residential land prices are
expected to post the highest increases, each at 3%.
◦ Agricultural land prices are expected to decline by 2%.
◦ Commercial land prices are expected to increase by 1%.
Survey Highlights Continued…
Across the regions, most land transactions were:◦ Region 1: residential, recreational, non-
irrigated agricultural◦ Region 2: non-irrigated agricultural,
recreational◦ Region 3: recreational, timber, and residential◦ Region 4: recreational, ranch◦ Region 5: ranch, irrigated agricultural,
recreational◦ Region 6: residential, ranch, commercial,
irrigated, agricultural Individual/family buyers were the major buyers
and sellers of U.S. land, with Region 1 accounting for the largest share of individual/family buyers (35%)and sellers (26%).
Survey Highlights Continued…
The acreage of U.S. land sold was typically 75 acres; ranch lands were typically 200 acres, while residential lands were typically 5 acres.
U.S. lands for sale were typically sold within 100 days. Land sold more quickly in Regions 2 and 4 and for agricultural non-irrigated, timber, and recreational lands.
On average, buyers of U.S. land financed 32% of the value of the property (or made a 68% down payment).
Irrigated lands accounted for 10% of U.S. land sales. Nearly half of all irrigated land sales were in Region 5 (43%).
Mineral rights were conveyed in 68% of U.S. land sales.
Market Conditions & OutlookU.S. Land Sales
Distribution of Closed Land Transactions
Percentage Distribution of Closed Land Transactions Among Members with Primary Business in the United States. 51% of U.S. Land Sales Were Recreational and Residential Lands.
Recrea
tiona
l
Reside
ntial
Timbe
r
Agric
ultura
l, non
-irriga
tedRan
ch
Agric
ultura
l, irrig
ated
Commerc
ial
Develop
ment, g
reenfi
eld
26% 25%
14% 11% 8% 7% 6% 3%
Average Change in Dollar Volume
Average Percent Change in the Dollar Volume of U.S. Land Sold from October 2015‒September 2016 Compared to October 2014‒September 2015. Dollar Volume Rose by 2%: Strong Timber and Residential Land Sales and Weak Agricultural Land Sales.
Timbe
r
Reside
ntial
Develop
ment, b
rownfi
eld
Develop
ment, g
reenfi
eldRan
ch
Recrea
tiona
l
Commerc
ial
Agric
ultura
l, non
-irriga
ted
Agric
ultura
l, irrig
ated
Other All
2%
5%
-1%
2%1% 1%
3%
0% 0%
3%
2%
5%4%
2% 2% 2% 1% 1%
0%-1%
1%2%
Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Average Change in Price of Land Sold
Average Percent Change in the Price of U.S. Land Sold in Dollars Per Acre from September 2015‒September 2016.
2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
0%
4%
0% 0%
3%2%
5%
3%2%
1% 1% 1% 1%
-1% -2%-3%
1%
Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Commodity Price Indices
Commodity Price Declines in 2015–2016 Likely Affected Agricultural Land Prices. Source: Standard & Poor's, downloaded from Haver Analytics.
2012
08
2012
10
2013
04
2013
06
2013
08
2013
10
2014
03
2014
06
2014
08
2014
10
2015
03
2015
06
2015
08
2015
10
2016
04
2016
06
2016
08
2016
10100200300400500600700
Commodity Price Indices
S&P GSCI Livestock Nearby Index (Jan-2-70=100)S&P GSCI Grains Index (Jan-5-70=100)S&P GSCI All Cattle Index (Index)
Quarterly New I-Unit Family Housing
*Starts in thousands. More Housing Construction Between 2015‒2016 Likely Boosted Residential Land Sales and Prices. Source: Census Bureau, downloaded from Haver Analytics.
2012
120
12220
12320
12420
13120
13220
13320
13420
14120
14220
14320
14420
15120
15220
15320
15420
16120
16220
163
0
50
100
150
200
250
United States Northeast Midwest South West
Expected Change in Dollar Volume of U.S. Land Sales
Average Expected Change in the Dollar Volume of U.S. Land Sales from October 2016–September 2017 Compared to October 2015–September 2016. Respondents Expect Dollar Volume to Increase 2% by September 2017 with Strong Gains in Timber, Development, and Residential Land.
3% 3% 3%
2% 2%
1% 1% 1%0%
2%2%
Expected Change in Price of U.S. Land Sold
Average Expected Change in the Price of U.S. Land (in Dollars Per Acre) from September 2016–September 2017
Timbe
r
Reside
ntial
Ranch
Develop
ment, g
reenfi
eld
Recrea
tiona
l
Develop
ment, b
rownfi
eld
Commerc
ial
Agric
ultura
l,irrig
ated
Agric
ultura
l, non
-irriga
ted Other All
3% 3%
2% 2%1% 1% 1%
-2% -2%
2%1%
CharacteristicsU.S. Land Sales
Distribution of U.S. Land Sales
Region 1 (the Northeast) Accounted for the Highest Share
of U.S. Land Sales.
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6
29%
14%17% 17%
20%
3%
29%
14%
18% 18% 17%
4%
Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Types of Buyers of U.S. Land
Based on the type of the most recent buyer. Multiple responses are allowed, so the distribution will not sum to 100 percent.
Individual/Family
Corporation/Partnership
Expansion farmer
Investor Foreign
45%
12% 8%15%
1%
64%
14% 12%20%
6%
Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Location of U.S. Land Purchased by Individual/Family Buyers
Based on the most recent sale of the respondents, Region 1 Accounted for the Largest Share of Individual/Family Buyers.
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6
26%
12%17% 19%
23%
3%
35%
8%
16% 16%18%
7%
Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Type of Sellers of U.S. Land
Based on the type of the most recent seller. Multiple responses are allowed so the responses will not sum up to 100 percent. Individuals/Family Buyers Accounted for 76 Percent of Respondent U.S. Land Sellers.
Individual/Family
Corporate/Partnership
Expansion Farmer
Investor Foreign Other
55%
9% 3% 9%0% 3%
76%
10%2%
11%0% 2%
Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Location of U.S. Land Sold by Individual/Family Sellers
Based on the most recent sale of the respondents, Region 1 Accounted for the Largest Share of Individual/Family Sellers.
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6
27%
15% 17% 17%20%
4%
26%
15%19% 19% 17%
3%
Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Types of U.S. Land Sold by Region
The estimates for Region 6 are based on less than 30 observations.
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6*3% 2% 9% 15% 23%21%
53%
6%11%
14%10%
6%
12%4%
5% 23%3%
2%
3%22%
32% 23%28%
23%
28%
35%
15%31%6%
22%
10% 3%31%
5% 8%24%
6%
4% 3%8%
8%
Agricultural, irrigated Agricultural, non-irrigated CommercialDevelopment, brownfield Development, greenfield RanchRecreational Residential Timber
Types of U.S. Land Sold by Region
Across the regions, most land transactions were:◦ Region 1: residential, recreational, non-
irrigated agricultural◦ Region 2: non-irrigated agricultural,
recreational◦ Region 3: recreational, timber, and residential◦ Region 4: recreational, ranch◦ Region 5: ranch, irrigated agricultural,
recreational◦ Region 6: residential, ranch, commercial,
irrigated agricultural
Median Acreage of U.S. LandSold by Region
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6* United States
44
9882
104
129
6481
20
80
103113
61
20
80
42
8091
80
3920
6557
85
47
9380
46
75
July 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Based on the most recent sale of the respondents. The estimates for Region 6 are based on less than 30 observations. Lands Sold in Regions 2, 4, and 5 Were Typically Larger: These Regions Have More Ranch and Non-Irrigated Agricultural Land Sales.
Median Acreage of U.S. Land Sold by Type
Based on the most recent sale of the respondents. Median acreage of agricultural irrigated land, development land, commercial land, and other types of land are not shown separately due to very small sample size, but the responses are used in calculating the median acreage of all land sold in the United States. Acreage of U.S. Land Sold Rose to 75 Acres: Ranch, Agricultural, and Timber Lands Tend to be Larger Than Other Types of Land.
Ranch Agricultural, non-irrigated
Timber Recreational Residential United States
160120
141100
8
65
200
116 11080
5
75
Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Median Days on Market of Land Soldby Region
Based on the most recent sale of the respondents. Estimates for Region 6 are based on less than 30 observations. U.S. Land Sold Typically Within 100 Days with Fewer Days on Market for Regions 2 and 4 Which Have More Non-Irrigated Agricultural and Recreational Land Sales.
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6* United States
194
60
150120
200
111 120135
60
160120
210 200
120100
62120
90
160
78100
135
45
125
60
12090 100
Jul 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Median Days on Market of Land Soldby Type
Based on the most recent sale of the respondent. Data for agricultural irrigated land, development land, commercial land, and other types of land are not shown separately due to very small sample size, but the responses are used in calculating the median acreage of all land sold in the United States.
60
126 120100
180
10075
150
90120
85 100
Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Average Financing of U.S. Land Sold
Based on the most recent sale of the respondent. Data for agricultural irrigated land, development land, commercial land, and other types of land are not shown separately due to very small sample size, but the responses are used in calculating the percent financing of all land sold in the United States. On Average, Buyers Financed 32% of the Value of the Land Purchased in the United States.
30% 33% 33%27%
16%
29%
42%38%
34% 31%22%
32%
Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Irrigated to Total Land Sales Comparison
*Based on the most recent sale of the respondents. Estimates for Region 6 are based on less than 30 observations.
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6* United States
2%5%
10% 9%
41%
18%
9%7% 7% 9% 8%
33% 31%
24%
7% 4% 4%
11%
34%
48%
28%
7%2% 4%
8%
38% 38%
10%
Jul 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Land Sales With Mineral Rights Conveyed
Based on the most recent sale of the respondents. Estimates for Region 6 are based on less than 30 observations, Nearly 70% of U.S. Lands Sold Had Mineral Rights Conveyed, With Greater Frequency in Regions 1,2,3.
Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6* United States
53%
76%68%
53% 51%57% 60%
68% 75% 71%
56% 53%50%
64%57%
77% 79%
68%
40% 42%
61%
76% 72% 77%
61%54%
42%
68%
July 2014 Survey Feb 2015 Survey Oct 2015 Survey Oct 2016 Survey
Survey Conclusions Respondents who conducted most of
their business in the U.S. between October 2015‒September 2016 reported modest price and sales growth. ◦ Timber and residential land sales had the strongest
growth, while sales of agricultural lands fell. ◦ Demand for housing appeared to have boosted
residential land sales, while falling commodity prices negatively impacted agricultural land sales.
In the next 12 months, respondents expect dollar volume of sales to increase at an average of 2% and prices to increase at an average of 1%. ◦ Timber, development, and residential land are
expected to continue to be the bright spots, while agricultural land sales are expected to stay essentially flat.
Technical Appendix
This graph compares the distribution of the sample of respondents based on their self-identified region (“sample”) to the distribution of the members and prospective members based on their regional classification provided by the REALTORS® Land Institute (‘’population”).
The chart shows an under-response in Regions 1, 5, and 6.
Technical Appendix Continued To align the distribution across regions of the
sample to the distribution across regions of the target population, each respondent was given a weight factor based on the respondent’s region of primary business which the respondent self-identified in the survey. The weight is calculated as:◦ Weight of region i = percent share of region i based on the
target distribution percent share of region i based on the sample distribution
In cases of under-response, the weight will be greater than 1 (Regions 1, 5, and 6). In cases of over-response, the weight will be less than 1 (Regions 2, 3, 4, Canada, Other International).
Each response is then multiplied by the appropriate weight factor based on the respondent’s indicated region of primary business.
Thank You The REALTORS® Land Institute, “The Voice of Land,” provides the expertise,
camaraderie, and resources that are the foundation for all land real estate professionals to become the best in the business. The RLI continually strives to maintain its status as the acknowledged leader for all matters pertaining to the land real estate profession is the essential membership organization for the extraordinary real estate professionals who broker, lease, sell, develop, and manage our most precious resource: the land.
The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing over 1 million members, including NAR’s institutes, societies, and councils, involved in all aspects of the real estate industry.
The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® Research Division collects and disseminates timely, accurate, and comprehensive real estate data and to conduct economic analysis in order to inform and engage members, consumers, policy makers, and the media in a professional and accessible manner.
REALTORS® Land Institute 430 N. Michigan AvenueChicago, IL 60611United StatesPhone: 800-441-5263rliland.com
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® Research Division500 New Jersey Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20001Phone: 202-383-1000Realtor.org