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2020 Election Toolbox
A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections
July 14, 2020
Producer National Journal Presentation Center
Roadmap
Presidential election
Congressional elections
Gubernatorial elections
3
Keys to the 2020 presidential election
Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020
Sources: US News & World Report, Migration Policy Institute, New York Times, Vox, FiveThirtyEight, Washington Post.
President Trump’s approval rating has fluctuated due to the COVID-19 outbreak• In estimates based on 2018 midterm exit polls and results, President Trump received strong approval ratings in
solidly red states and majority support in key states such as Georgia (51.0%), Texas (50.7%), and Florida (50.2%)• However, the coronavirus outbreak led to an initial spike in approval followed by a fairly steady decrease since the
end of March 2020
Suburban districts may play an important role in 2020 elections• Many suburban districts flipped from red to blue in the 2018 congressional midterm elections: of the 69 suburban
districts held by Republicans before the midterms, 37 voted for the Democratic House candidate• These suburban voters could play a significant role in both the 2020 presidential election and 2020 congressional
races
Changing demographics in key states could make them more competitive• Metropolitan areas in Texas are projected to double in population from 2010 to 2050• Texas experienced the largest absolute growth in immigrant population of any state from 2000 to 2017• If Clinton won Texas, she would have reached the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidential election• Changing demographics in swing states such as Arizona and Florida will also play a role in the election outcome
A transition to virtual campaigns may impact candidate support• In 2016 and following his election, rallies have played a major role in garnering support and boosting President
Trump’s campaign• Trump has held 400 rallies since announcing his candidacy for the 2016 election and had been holding one or two
rallies each week prior to the shutdown due to the coronavirus outbreak
2016 election
outcome
Clinton EC votes, 222
MN10
PA20
MI16
NC15
FL29
AZ11
GA16
Trump EC votes, 189WI10
4
Potential 2020 electoral college scenarios based on performance in swing states
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: May 28, 2019
2% shift
towards Clinton
in swing states
Clinton EC votes, 222
MN10
PA20
MI16
NC15
FL29
AZ11
GA16
Trump EC votes, 189WI10
4% shift
towards Clinton
in swing states
Clinton EC votes, 222
MN10
PA20
MI16
NC15
FL29
AZ11
GA16
Trump EC votes, 189WI10
*North Carolina did not have a Senate election in 2018
Sources: Swing states based on Cook Political Report rankings270 Electoral College votes needed to win
2018 Senate race
outcomes in swing
states
Clinton EC votes, 222
MN10
PA20
MI16
NC*15
FL29
AZ11
GA16
Trump EC votes, 189WI10
YearRecession in 2 years before
election?President Reelection?
1912 YES Taft NO
1916 NO Wilson YES
1924 YES Coolidge YES
1932 YES Hoover NO
1936 NO FDR YES
1940 NO FDR YES
1944 NO FDR YES
1948 NO Truman YES
1956 NO Eisenhower YES
1964 NO Johnson YES
1972 NO Nixon YES
1976 YES Ford NO
1980 YES Carter NO
1984 NO Reagan YES
1992 YES H.W. Bush NO
1996 NO Clinton YES
2004 NO W. Bush YES
2012 NO Obama YES
5
How does a recession impact a president’s reelection bid?
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: March 17, 2020
Sources: Mehlman Castagnetti
presidents since 1912
have faced a recession
within 2 years before their
reelection bid
6
5 of those 6presidents lost reelection
6
Financial summary at the end of May 2020
$287
$215
$187
$133
$108
$82
Trump Biden
■ Total receipts ■ Total disbursements ■ Ending cash on hand
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
Sources: Federal Election Commission.
President Trump has spent over $187 million during his presidential campaign
Slide last updated on: June 22, 2020
Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts
Sources: National Journal Research, Bully Pulpit Interactive.
Trump has spent more than double the amount that Biden’s campaign has on Facebook spending
7
Spending between Jan. 5, 2019 and July 4, 2020
■ Facebook spending ■ Google spending
Yanelle Cruz | Slide last updated on: July 14, 2020
Donald TrumpFacebook likes: 28.3 millionTwitter followers: 83.4 millionInstagram followers: 20.9 million
Joe BidenFacebook likes: 2.1 millionTwitter followers: 6.9 millionInstagram followers: 2.7 million
53.8M
25.3M
31.7M
14.6M
Donald Trump Joe Biden
Targeted Facebook spending by demographic
■ Male ■ Female ■ Unknown
50.4%
62.9%
48.9%
36.0%
Trump
Biden
■ 13-24 ■ 25-44 ■ 45-64 ■ 65+
22.2%
31.1%
45.7%
39.1%
27.6%
24.2%
Trump
Biden
8
A number of major polls show Joe Biden with a lead over President Trump
38
41
43
42
50
53
53
49
5
4
1
5
5
2
1
3
2Fox News
(June 13-16, 2020)
Monmouth University
(June 26-June 30,
2020)
ABC/Washington Post
(May 25-28, 2020)
NBC/WSJ
(May 28-June 2,
2020)
■ Trump ■ Biden ■ Other/Neither ■ Undecided/Not sure ■ Wouldn’t vote/No one
Head-to-head general election polls
Sources: Fox News, NBC/WSJ, ABC/Washington Post, Monmouth University.
Slide last updated on: July 6, 2020
AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS
Roadmap
Presidential election
Congressional elections
Gubernatorial elections
10
Keys to the 2020 congressional races
• To win the majority in the House, Republicans must pick up 18 seats • Out of the 22 seats rated as Toss Ups by The Cook Political Report, 16 belong to incumbent Democrats while six belong to incumbent
Republicans• Out of the 88 seats rated as competitive, 50 belong to Democrats and 33 belong to Republicans
Democrats’ strong position in the House• Heading into the 2020 election, about three times as many Republicans (27) will not seeking reelection as Democrats (10)• Only one of these seats (Rep. Dave Loebsack (IA-2) is at risk of flipping from D to R• Democrats hold a wide lead in most generic ballot polls and hold a strong advantage due to strong fundraising efforts at the
candidate level and weak recruitment efforts for House Republicans
• To gain majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to gain four seats or three seats and the presidency for power in a tie-break• Out of the 35 seats up for reelection, 12 are currently held by Democrats and 23 are currently held by Republicans• Four of the Republican seats are rated as Toss Up by The Cook Political Report (Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina)
Multiple competitive races in one state has compounding effect• In Arizona, the race between incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) has become increasingly
competitive and Arizona’s role as a swing state in the presidential election will bring a slew of spending and effort to increase turnout for both elections
• In North Carolina, the 2020 Senate, gubernatorial, and presidential race are all competitive
Senate Republicans mostly on defense for 2020• The 2020 Senate election map put Senate Republicans on defense for this election• Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), currently rated as Lean R, and Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), currently rated as Lean D, seem to be the only
opportunity for Republicans to increase their majority in the Senate• Senate Republicans and their allied PAC have reserved $94 million of air time for June 1st through election day on behalf of seven
incumbents
10
Sources:
Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020
Keys to the House
Keys to the Senate
Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020
Sources: United States Senate: Class II Roster
11
Senators up for re-election in states won by the opposing party’s 2016 presidential candidate
NH
VT
OH
WVVA
PA
NY
ME
NC
SC
GA
TN*
KY
IN
MI
WI
MN
IL
LATX
OK
ID
NV
OR
WA
CA
AZNM*
CO
WY*
MT ND
SD
IA
UT
FL
AR
MO
MS AL
NE
KS*
AK
HI
Democrats (12) Republicans (23)
Doug Jones (AL) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Dan Sullivan (AK) Jim Risch (ID) Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS) Lamar Alexander (TN)*
Chris Coons (DE) Cory Booker (NJ) Martha McSally (AZ) Joni Ernst (IA) Steve Daines (MT) Lindsey Graham (SC)
Dick Durbin (IL) Tom Udall (NM)* Tom Cotton (AR) Pat Roberts (KS)* Ben Sasse (NE) John Cornyn (TX)
Ed Markey (MA) Jeff Merkley (OR) Cory Gardner (CO) Mitch McConnell (KY) Thom Tillis (NC) Shelley Moore Capito (WV)
Gary Peters (MI) Jack Reed (RI) David Perdue (GA) Bill Cassidy (LA) Jim Inhofe (OK) Mike Enzi (WY)*
Tina Smith (MN) Mark Warner (VA) Kelly Loeffler (GA) Susan Collins (ME) Mike Rounds (SD)
*Senators not seeking reelection in 2020
■ Democratic senator Trump victory
■ Republican senator Clinton victoryGary Peters (D) won in 2014 by 13.3%
Doug Jones (D) won in a 2017 special election by 1.5%
Cory Gardner (R) won in 2014 by 1.9%
Susan Collins (R) won in 2014 by 37.0%
■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat ■ Top five states most likely to flip
12Slide last updated on: May 19, 2020
Sources: National Journal
IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL
Hotline’s 2020 Senate power rankings
Hotline: Only two Democratic Senate seats are in the top ten most likely to flip party control
3
1
2
4
5
8
6
7
10
*List of challengers is not exhaustive
6. Iowa — Joni Ernst (R)
7. Montana — Steve Daines (R)
8. Georgia — Kelly Loeffler (R)
Georgia — David Perdue (R)
9. Michigan — Gary Peters (D)
10. Kansas — Open seat (R)
1. Alabama:• Incumbent: Doug Jones (D)• Challengers: Former Attorney General Jeff Sessions (R),
former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R)
2. Colorado: • Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R)• Challengers: Former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D), former
State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D),
3. Arizona:• Incumbent: Martha McSally (R)• Challengers: Veteran & retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D)
4. North Carolina:• Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R)• Challengers: Former State Sen. Cal Cunningham (D)
5. Maine: • Incumbent: Susan Collins (R)• Challengers: State House Speaker Sara Gideon (D),
former gov. candidate Betsy Sweet, attorney Bre Kidman
9
■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat
13Slide last updated on: March 18, 2020
* Incumbent not seeking reelection in 2020Sources: National Journal
IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL
Hotline’s 2020 House power rankings
Hotline: Fourteen Democrat-held House seats are in the top 20 most likely to flip party control
1. TX-23: Rep. Will Hurd (R)*
2. OK-5: Rep. Kendra Horn (D)
3. SC-1: Rep. Joe Cunningham (D)
4. NM-2: Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D)
5. NY-22: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D)
6. GA-7: Rep. Rob Woodall (R)*
7. IA-1: Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D)
8. GA-6: Rep. Lucy McBath (D)
9. MN-7: Rep. Collin Peterson (D)
10. IA-3: Rep. Cindy Axne (D)
11. ME-2: Rep. Jared Golden (D)
12. TX-24: Rep. Kenny Marchant (R)*
13. NY-11: Rep. Max Rose (D)
14. CA-21: Rep. T.J. Cox (D)
15. PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R)
16. TX-7: Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D)
17. NJ-3: Rep. Andy Kim (D)
18. IL-13: Rep. Rodney Davis (R)
19. CA-48: Rep. Harley Rouda (D)
20. TX-22: Rep. Pete Olson (R)*
14
The national GOP committees have raised about $161 million more than their Democratic counterparts so far
Sources: FEC
$372,874,541
$190,701,986
$174,753,273
$146,507,681
$119,599,909
$111,550,572
$477,005,831
$638,982,130
RNC
DCCC
DNC
NRCC
NRSC
DSCC
Total Dem
Total GOP
Total receipts by national party PACs
AS OF MAY 31, 2020
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: June 22, 2020
■ Democratic PAC ■ Republican PAC
Roadmap
Presidential election
Congressional elections
Gubernatorial elections
16
Keys to 2020 gubernatorial races
Slide last updated on: May 26, 2020
Sources: Cook Political Report, Ballotpedia,
High visibility during COVID-19 outbreak could favor incumbents• State response has been in the spotlight during the COVID-19 outbreak, leading to coverage of governors and more
exposure to the public• In multiple public polls, most governors have a higher approval rating than President Trump on their handling of
the coronavirus
Few possibilities for party flips• Currently, Democrats hold 24 governorships while Republicans hold 26• In the 2020 elections, seven GOP seats are up for election while four Democratic seats are up for election• However, only two seats are likely to possibly flip parties (NC-Cooper (D) and MT-Open (D))• Montana’s seat is open because incumbent Gov. Steve Bullock (D) is term-limited
Governorships do not always align with partisanship for other offices• Presidential and Senate elections do not necessarily indicate which party will win the governor seat in a state• Although President Trump won Montana by 20 points in 2016, Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) won his election
although it was a slimmer margin• Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) (up for reelection in 2022) has won two consecutive gubernatorial elections despite
Maryland electing two Democratic senators and Democrats winning the state in presidential elections since 1992• This indicates that voters may be willing to split the ticket for gubernatorial elections
North Carolina is home to many competitive races in 2020• In addition to having a gubernatorial race rated as Lean D by The Cook Political Report, North Carolina also has a
competitive Senate race, is considered a presidential swing state, and has three competitive House races in 2020• An influx of spending, ads, and efforts from campaigns and outside groups will work to raise voter registration,
turnout, and support for their respective sides in 2020
17
There are only two open seats up for election in 2020
*“Open seats” are governorships where incumbent governors are term-limited, they have announced that they are not running for re-election, or lost their primary
Sources: Cook Political Report, 2019
■ Dem. incumbent (3) ■ Dem. open* (1)
■ GOP incumbent (6) ■ GOP open* (1)
Slide last updated on: Dec. 13, 2019
2020 gubernatorial races by incumbent and status
NH
VT
OH
WVVA
PA
NY
ME
NC
SC
GA
TN
KY
IN
MI
WI
MN
IL
LATX
OK
ID
NV
OR
WA
CA
AZNM
CO
WY
MT ND
SD
IA
UT
FL
AR
MO
MS AL
NE
KS
AK
HI
MD
MA
RI
CT
DC
DE
NJ