Post on 12-Sep-2014
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2050 Global Calculator CO2 GHG emissions
Benoit Lefevre, Ph.D.
Director, Transport and Climate, EMBARQ
Washington DC
July 16th, 2014
Global Calculator
Overview of the Global Calculator project Benoit Lefevre, Ph.D. Erin Cooper Julien Pestiaux July 16th, 2014
Global Calculator
Background Presentation of the Global Calculator Methodology Demonstration Next Steps
Structure
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Global Calculator
DECC: From National Calculators to Global Calculator
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UK 2050 Calculator published
UK Calculator used to inform
Carbon Plan
Chinese govt start work on 2050
Calculator
ICF approval for 2050 Calculator
project
Launch of Chinese Calculator
South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh all start
work
Global Calculator team to start
work
10 developing countries developed
2050 Calculators
Launch of Global Calculator
Aim
Achieved
Global Calculator
The UK set a legal requirement to reduce its emissions by 80% by 2050 from 1990 levels
Can we meet our targets without using nuclear?
What proportion of energy might the UK import in
2050?
Will we still be able to fly? What might be the impact
on the UK landscape?
How much will it cost?
How much bioenergy can the UK produce?
How can we deal with intermittency of
renewables?
Despite having sophisticated optimising models, the UK built its “2050 Calculator”
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Global Calculator
UK Calculator
Global Calculator
The UK Calculator has had an impact within and outside of government
Informing UK Government energy strategy • Electricity market reform
• Heat strategy
• Bioenergy strategy
• Carbon Plan 2011
• Urgent analysis (e.g. for Cabinet
ministers, and post Fukushima)
Energising debate among NGOs, businesses and politicians • Expert pathways
• Calculator adopted as an analytical and educational tool
• Briefing for MPs,
and cited in Hansard
Within government Outside government
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Global Calculator
Other countries are making good progress on their country-level 2050 Calculators
Published: Work in progress: Close to starting: In discussion:
UK Belgium China South Korea
South Africa Brazil Bangladesh
India Indonesia
Nigeria Poland Russia France
Taiwan
Algeria
Hungary Serbia and SEE Japan
Mexico
ICF supported
Thailand Vietnam
USA Philippines Ethiopia
Colombia
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• The Chines Planning Commission used their National Calculator to coherence of their 5-year plan: would there be enough supply to meet demand if they stopped building coal power plants?
• The tool will support the forthcoming publication of “China Energy Outlook” • This series publications won high praise for both academic and practical
value, http://eri.org.cn/news_zj.php?cid27=&aid=2172
Global Calculator
Background Presentation of the Global Calculator Methodology Demonstration Next Steps
Structure
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Global Calculator
Why a Global Calculator ?
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A difficulty with the current suite of global climate and energy models is that they tend not to be very user friendly. For example, MARKAL screenshot:
So DECC decided to build a Global Calculator model.
Global Calculator
Consortium
Sophie Hartfield Team leader, (DECC)
Tom Bain
Lead modeller
(DECC)
Erica Thompson
Climate science and
impacts
(LSE)
Julien Pestiaux
Transport
Alexandre Strapasson
Land/bio/food
(ICL)
Anindya Bhattacharya Electricity and
fossil fuels (E&Y)
Ephraim Broschkowski
Visuals
(CMF)
Zhang Bo
Buildings (Chinese ERD/ERI)
Davide D’Ambrosio IEA support on data, peer review and stakeholder engagement
Michel Cornet
Materials
(Climact)
Support from Climate-KIC partners: Utrecht University, Netherlands; Potsdam Institute, Germany; Walker Institute, UK; Rothamsted Research, UK; University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, France; Met Office, UK; and Tyndall Centre, UK.
Funded by Climate-KIC
Benoit Lefevre (WRI) Erin Cooper (WRI)
Markus Wrobel (CMF)
Jeremy Woods and Nicole Kalas (ICL and
Climate-KIC)
Global Calculator
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Added value of Global Calculator
• User-friendly
• Transparent • Gives a cross-sectoral view in one glance • Gives global perspective • Shows trade-offs between policies • Unlike national calculators, global calculator is constrained by availability of materials
Global Calculator
Scenario analysis tool for showing how global energy, land and food system “adds up” and showing the business opportunities that could arise from decarbonisation. e.g. • Industry: if big shift to recycling and more durable
products, what does this mean for industrial production?
• Transport: what’s the size of the potential future market for EVs (would there be enough rare earth materials to manufacture vehicle batteries)?
• Food: what’s the global availability of land for food vs bioenergy, and what might this mean for production methods?
It will help answer questions of interest to businesses…
Multinational businesses
User Questions answered
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Global Calculator
Show at a glance how pathways from other models compare (e.g. IEA 2, 4 and 6D pathways). Develop and promote a global eco-wide vision / pathway for a sustainable future
… and NGOs and governments
To make the case for tackling climate change by: • Showing detrimental impacts • Illustrating aspirational low emission pathways.
Environmental NGOs and
governments
All users
User Questions answered
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Global Calculator
But it will not be designed to answer more complex price impact and burden sharing questions
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It will not be designed to answer questions such as: • Price impacts: what is the impact of a global carbon tax of $x/tCO2?
• Burden sharing: if the US did X and China did Y, how would other
countries respond and what would happen to global emissions and climate impacts?
But it will be able to illustrate pathways from other models exploring these questions.
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Global Calculator
Background Presentation of the Global Calculator Methodology Demonstration Next Steps
Structure
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Global Calculator High level structure of the Transport modelling
Transport (energy demand and emissions)
Passenger
Urban
Non-Urban
Long range international
Freight
Short to medium range / domestic
Long range international
(ship, air)
+
+
+
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Automobile City
Transit City
Booming City
+
Developed
Developing +
Developed
Developing +
Developed
Developing +
Developed
Developing +
Global Calculator
Urban
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Automobile City Transit City
Booming City +
City types and levels are based on:
• City form and projected future growth
• Existing mode shares within each city type
• Trip distances within each city type
• Countries/population of each category
Close-up on urban passenger travel modelling
To capture change potential in a variety of cities throughout the world.
Global Calculator
IMPROVE
IMPROVE
SHIFT
Demand ICEV road transport
GHG emissions (CO2e) CARS
Demand electric road transport
Fuel demand CARS
Elecricity demand - CARS
Electricity emissions factors
Fuel emissions factor
Efficiency rate
Occupancy rate
Electric penetration
Occupancy rate
x
+
Transport demand CARS
ICEV penetration
Transport demand CARS
Modal share CARS
Urban passengers transport demand per year per inhabitant in the city
Urban population
x x x
x
Efficiency rate
x x
Modal share CARS
Urban passengers transport demand per year per inhabitant in the city
Urban population
x
GHG emissions – CARS electricity
GHG emissions – CARS fuel
TOTAL FIGURES
APPROACH
SOURCE: Global Calculator team
AVOID
AVOID
SHIFT
x
x TOTAL FIGURES
APPROACH
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Structure of the URBAN Passengers transport modelling
Global Calculator
Levels 1 to 4 represent the least/most abatement effort that experts believe possible
The level 1-4 range is simply a synthesis of what a wide range of credible experts believe could be possible by 2050.
Level 1: Minimum
abatement effort
Level 2: ambitious but
achievable
Level 3: very ambitious but
achievable
Level 4: extraordinarily ambitious and
extreme
Most experts will tend to congregate here Only a minority of experts will
think this is possible. An
extreme view.
More abatement effort
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Global Calculator
Level 1 represents the minimum level of abatement effort
Technology levers: minimum or no technological roll out. e.g. UK nuclear
Behavioural levers: minimal abatement effort. Maximum demand that could plausibly be envisaged. In level 1 there is no decoupling of economic/population growth and demand. e.g. UK average home temperature
Level 1 should not be interpreted as BAU. It may actually be more pessimistic. 25
Global Calculator
Level 2 is described by most experts as ambitious but achievable; and level 3 is described as very ambitious but achievable
Technology levers: technological roll out at ambitious / very ambitious rates. e.g. UK nuclear
Behavioural levers: ambitious / very ambitious behaviour change and abatement effort in this sector. e.g. UK average home temperature
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Global Calculator
Level 4 for technology levers reflects the maximum theoretical potential of a technology
Technology levers: the maximum technology roll out that is technically possible by 2050, not constrained by cost. e.g. UK nuclear
Level 4 is: • Extraordinarily ambitious and
extreme – an “Apollo” level of effort • The maximum technology roll out as
suggested by the most ambitious expert
• Only constrained by: • Build/installation rate: e.g. roll
out of nuclear will be constrained by the fastest it is possible to build plants (determined by a “top runner” build rate)
• Natural resources: e.g. roll out of wind and solar will be constrained by the availability of windy/sunny locations.
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How does the Calculator reflect current/planned policy?
Current / planned policy is not reflected in the levels 1-4… Level 1 is not the “business as usual” scenario because it does not attempt to take account of existing/planned policy. Level 1 is actually likely to be higher emissions than business as usual. … instead, it’s reflected in example pathways e.g. The IEA 4DS is all current and planned policy.
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Global Calculator
Background Presentation of the Global Calculator Methodology Demonstration Next Steps
Structure
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Global Calculator
Demo of prototype Global Calculator tool
http://gcp.pik-potsdam.de/glob-calc-v10a.html Username: gcp Password: ObErOn7! (please note the confidentiality agreement) 30
Benoit Lefevre, Ph.D.
Benoit Lefevre is the Director of the
Transport and Climate Program for
and EMBARQ/WRI. He is in charge
of developing a new initiative on
transport and climate change. Benoit
leads the Transport Working Group
of the Low Emissions Development
Strategies Global Partnership (LEDS-
GP).
About the Presenter