20CC Ltd Independent Consultants © 20CC Ltd Systems Thinking Overview TNT 2008 Sources from The...

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20CC LtdIndependent Consultants

Systems Thinking Overview

TNT 2008

Sources from The Open University acknowledged

My Background

• Fellow of Mech. Engg. & Management• 40 years applying systems to business• 13 years as independent consultant • 25 years tutoring OU systems courses• External examiner to Arab OU• Lecturer on analytical techniques for MBA• Course can be tailored in time & content

Systems Thinking - Background

• Formalised in ’60s by Peter Checkland• Need grew as society became increasingly

“interconnected”• Opposite to “reductionism”, breaking things

down into components, as most Work Study• Decreases the detail by “going up” to see the

whole picture

Systems Thinking - Utility

• Holistic view of human systems• Systems that have a purpose • Are complex and interconnected• Results - intended, unintended &

emergent properties– Try for them not to be a surprise

Systems Thinking - Principles

• Looks from a higher level to sense the issues

• Uses many techniques to understand a problem

• Adopts analytical management techniques to decide what to do

• Embraces advanced management techniques for action and implementation

Systems Thinking – A Toolbox

• So the method helps progressively– To sense the context of the problem– To understand the issues– To decide upon options to solve– To act to an agreed plan

• Systems Thinking has its own language• Integrates with advanced management

concepts

The objective of the course

hammer

hammerer

hammered

Course Aims

• Encourage an interest in systems thinking• Develop an awareness of systems

– Their properties– Their interconnectedness

• Enable student to start to think systemically– Or at least differently, openly

• Create confidence to test on real problems

Learning Outcomes

• Understand where systems thinking is different• Understand the meaning of systems terms • Be alert to the perspectives of others• Create 6 types of graphic analysis tool• Understand how systems thinking can be

useful• Create confidence in using some aspects• Provide links to other management concepts

Course Modules

• Module 1 – Intros, Overview, ice breaker• Module 2 – Stakeholder analysis• Module 3 – Sensing & diagrams• Module 4 – Systems maps• Module 5 – Understanding & diagrams• Module 6 – Modelling, Indicators & Deciding • Module 7 – Acting & key management insights• Module 8 – Reporting, wrap up, feedback

Own Language - Key ConceptsWorldview Perspectives Stakeholders

Messes Difficulties Trap

HolisticSystemic

ReductionistSystematic

SystemPurpose

Boundary Environment

ComplexityInter-connected

System of Interest

HierarchyLevelSub-system

Information EmergenceUnintended Consequences

Modelling Indicators Control Feedback

System

• Connected components which do something– Systems must have an intended Purpose– May have emergent properties – not designed, but

desirable– Or unintended consequences – not designed, but

undesirable

• They have a hierarchy– Levels– Sub-systems– Environment

Setting a Boundary (Purpose)

• Deciding a Boundary is key• Defines or isolates what is practical to

consider• Determines focus of study• Determines the Environment, • So Limits and Defines the Study

– inputs to the Terms of Reference

Holistic

• Systematic or Reductionist– Perfect for many problems– Step after step towards the solution – The “traditional” approach of engineers

• Systems Thinking is about analysing complex problems in a holistic manner– Systemic, the total system – Look at all the issues and their implications– There will be many Inter-connections & Complexity

Stakeholders & Perspectives

• We recognise that we are not all the same• We attempt to maximise the consensus• Care can usually create an optimum

solution• Stakeholders, no definition needed here

– Analysis can often be quite simple yet powerful as a 2x2 matrix

Easeof

KEYS = SecurityF = FoodMD = Medical devicesP = PharmaC = CosmeticsH = HospitalsPH = HPAW = Water

Boston Market Matrix

Easier

HigherLower

Harder

Modelling & Indicators

• Modelling performance of system/systems• Examples

– Economies– Spread of infection– Insurance risks

• Deciding on “true” indicators– Partial indicators

• The change in value of Key Indicators

The SUDA Methodology

• There are many methodologies• This is one, sensible disciplined approach

– Sensing the problem– Understanding the issues– Deciding on the options for action– Acting – taking action

Link to Diagramming

• Each type has an optimum use– Sort out your own ideas – Sensing– Suggest possible causes - Understanding– Suggest points of interest - Understanding– Determine impacts of actions - Deciding– Explain actions which may help – Acting

Diagramming

A key part of understanding

Communicating to the Steering Group

Diagramming

• The common types– Spray Diagram– Rich Picture– Systems Map– Influence Diagram– Multiple Cause Diagram– Sign Graph– Control Diagram

Why use Diagrams

• As an aid to study and note taking– Spray diagram

• Convince others with emotion Rich Picture– with facts all the rest

• Analyse how it works• Many diagram types

– Convey information – facts & stimulate ideas• Fortunately T214 only uses 5 types• A picture is worth a 1,000 words

Factors to Consider

• Purpose of the diagram– to aid your own thinking– to inform or convince others

• Assess the Influence or Effects of the factors involved

• Estimate the effects of key factors

Diagrams used for Sensing

• Sensing the problem– Spray diagram– Rich picture– Systems map (this can also be used in the

understanding phase to determine the structure of problems)

Spray Diagram

• Excellent for note taking– Use one per topic in initial studies– Then look for common themes– Re-draw showing connections to central topic

• Not just a list, should convey some key relationships and the relative interests of stakeholders

Spray Diagram

• Similar to diagrams known as “Mind Maps”• Excellent for note taking

– Use one per article/book when studying– Then look for common themes between the

sample– Re-draw showing connections to central topic

• Not just a list, should convey some key relationships and relative interests of key stakeholders or issues

Spray Diagram of The Institution

TheInstitution

MemberRecruitmentMember

Services

Influence

PublicPerception

Non-members

Government

Public

Regions

Events

Proceedings

Publications

R. ManagersStaff

Marketing& PR

AssessmentProcess

Promotion

FeesAdmin

CompetingInstitutionsFig. 1

Spray Diagram Exercise

• Consider examples passing around, mainly from students

• Think of the topic “My Journey to this Tutorial”

• Individually write a list of the stakeholders involved

Now draw a Spray Diagram in groups

Rich Picture

• Requires a little more feel for the topic• Does require an element of artistic talent

– Do not get round this by excessive clip-art– Can convey emotion like art or photos

• You know good RPs when you see them– They usually show a linking thread of ideas

• Road from small (closed) shops to busy supermarkets

• Pollution in river from industry to leisure areas• Studying at home with problems & distractions

Rich Picture

• A little more knowledge of the topic• Does require some artistic talent

– Can convey emotion like good art or photos• You know good ones when you see them

– They usually show a linking thread of ideas• Road from small (closed) shops to supermarkets• Pollution in river from industry outflow to fishermen• Studying at home with problems & distractions

Studying at Home

Rich Picture Exercise

• Consider all the SDs of “My Journey to this Tutorial”

Now draw a Rich Picture in groups

Systems Map

• Show relationship between systems and components of systems

• Must have a named boundary– may need to experiment with the boundary

• Want to see levels• Some overlapping is acceptable• Each sub-system must be named• We have mentioned where conventions

matter

A Relevant Example

Systems Map Exercise

• Think of the topic “Where I Live”

• Individually write a list of the entities involved

Now draw a Systems Map in groups

Systems Map of The Institution

The Institution

Governance

FMCater

Finance

M Services

Room Book

PublicServices

Development

Learned Soc

M Recruit

QMB Outsource Co

Regions

TACs Grps

Events

Govt.Register

Fig. 2

Example Problems

• The “practitioner” course allows groups to work on current topical examples

• They witness varying perspectives• The observe new insights

Diagrams for Understanding

• Understanding the problem– Systems map– Influence diagram – Multiple cause diagram– Sign graph– Modelling techniques and flow diagrams

Influence Diagram on Potential Members

NationalEvents

Service

Prestige

QualifiedNon

Members

Government

NationalPress

Public

Members

Profit

LocalEvents

Fig. 3

MC Diagram of Delivery

NationalEvents

LocalRoom

MoreNo.1 Rm

LocalEvents

Grps/WPs(c.15)

TACs(c.30)

Regions(16)

Centres(23)

No.1Room

OtherRoom

Electronic

Non-membersServed

MembersServed

Poss.Profit

SmallCosts

Fig. 4

BranchesAreasPanels

National Local

Techniques for Deciding

• Sign Graphs or Control Diagrams• Multiple Criteria analysis (MCA)• Strength Weakness Opportunity & Threat

(SWOT)• Social, Technical, Economic & Political

(STEP)• 4 Ws & an H What, How, Why, When &

Where?• Modelling

Modelling

• Selection of techniques• Spreadsheets

– Pre-formatted– “Self built”

• Prediction of changed performance• Essential to decide/agree indicators

– Qualitative– Quantitative

Frequently Referenced Authors

• Handy 4 cultures• Hofstede’s culture categories • Bates pathologies• Pfeffer• Sterner and many others

Frequently Referenced Concepts

• Top down, bottom up• Emergent & Managed Change• Problem Articulating Skills• Simplifying Strategies

– Selective attention, Assuming continuity over time, Local focus, Typifying, Averaging

• Colonisation, Collaboration• Interpenetration, boundary people,

interlocking elites

Comment on Modules

• Modules 1 – 6 can be expanded to 2 days• Client specific project preparation can be

added to a third day• Arab OU tutor training of 18 hours of

material• A more in depth follow-up is possible

Course Delivery

• This course is tailored in time & content• Objective:

– Management overview 2 - 4 hours– Practitioner team 2 – 3 days– An OU qualification 2 – 3 years

• Group size 4 - 12

Course Deliveries

• Many years to OU students – 16 hours pa• Arab OU tutors – 24 hours• Various commercial clients

Influence Diagram

• A influences B, not B certainly follows A– Not a flow diagram

• Can map onto a Systems Map, but go to individual entities not (sub) systems

• Should show– a boundary although you can start without

one – arrows show the direction of influence– have a key to the strength of influence

• When analysing them it is usually best to focus on concentrations of influences

Influence Diagram - Hints• Basically Systems Maps with lines of influence added • Like SMs, snapshots of the system of interest • Use to highlight key influences between components • Be selective - show important influences only • Use space and relative distance to indicate nature of

relationship • Arrows are used to indicate direction of influence • Never double headed arrows - use two arrows • Nearly always arrows of influence from one entity to another• Use arrows of different thickness to denote different

strengths of influence• Provide a key• Keep crossed lines to a minimum - redraw to avoid

Drawing a ID

• Start with topic of key interest in centre of space

• Add the major relevant influences• Add the “next layer” of contributory causes

and their links• Aim for between 7 and 15 “entities” • Revise and iterate, but keep your

discarded versions• Experiment with the appropriate Boundary• Review the purpose• It is a part of the ART of communication

– avoid too many lines crossing– correct level of detail for the purpose

Influence Diagram Exercise

• Think of the topic “The choice of method of getting Children to School”

• Individually write a list of the factors involved

Now draw an Influence Diagram in groups

Cause and Effect (1)

• Do “That” again• Trip to the Pictures• One for the Road• Do not follow WebZone

Effect (Ultimate)

• No Sweets• No GCSE!• No Driving Licence• No T205 pass

Examples indicate, that there may be many links in the chain

Cause & Effect (2)

• A single cause can have one Effect• A single Cause can have multiple Effects• Number of single Causes produce the

same Effect

Multiple Cause Diagram

• A causes B• Should show

– a boundary and – the direction of cause

• When using them it is often best to focus on concentrations of effects

Good example

Drawing a MC Diagram

• Start with topic of key interest in centre of space

• Add the major relevant causes• Add the “next layer” of contributory causes

and their links• Aim for between 7 and 15 “entities” • Revise and iterate, but keep your

discarded versions• Experiment with the appropriate Boundary• Review the purpose• It is a part of the ART of communication

– avoid too many lines crossing– correct level of detail for the purpose

MC Diagram Exercise - Scout Hut

• Draw a MCD of the ‘messy problem’ ‘the scout group isn’t meeting’ based on the following types of event:– Holes in fencing– The scout hut is in disrepair– No-one with financial skill– Damage done by young people– No fundraising– Budget is unrealistic– Other people do not respect the property– Not enough money– Damage done by vandals– Young people do not respect the property– Property is not secure– Young people are not involved in the upkeep

Key Features of MC Diagrams

• Most interesting outcomes – RESULTS• Main factors effecting THE INTERESTING

RESULTS– How are they measured

• Qualitatively on the diagram• Quantitatively via a Sign Graph

• Search for more links• Search for feedback loops

Comparison between IDs & MCs

INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS

• Influences that have an effect on a situation, a broad view at an instant• Represents main structural features and relationships of a situation• Useful for exploring interrelationships • Title• Words labelling components in blobs of different sizes • Arrows – representing different degrees of influence by thicknesses, dotted• Key needed• Arrows may be labelled• System boundary distinguishing the system of interest from the environment

MULTIPLE CAUSE DIAGRAMS

• Causes, leading to events or types of event, sequential, not a snapshot• Represents causal relationships between states and events• Useful for exploring why something goes wrong, or keeps re-occurring• Title• States or situations in phrases• Arrows, single-headed, one thickness, all meaning ‘leads to, causes’• No key needed• Arrows may be labelled• System boundary is recommended, but I believe essential

Considering The Boundary (Purpose)

• Think about the whole – holistic• Think about how it all works - systemic• Define or isolate that part which is

practical to consider• So defines and limits your Study• Or the Terms of Reference for a consultant

Sign Graph

• Basically a MCD, but with a + or – sign added to each cause• Is the effect at one end, in the same direction at the other?• Can be more, less, in/decrease, higher, lower, etc.

– More car parking creates more car journeys• Label with +ve if the same effect

– Decrease in train fares, increases passenger journeys• Label with –ve if the opposite effect

• Check the loops for –ve signs only– If ODD number, negative feedback, generally good– If EVEN number, positive feedback, generally bad

Feedback

• Positive Feedback– Amplifies variance– Can be unstable and dangerous

• Negative feedback– Reduces variance– Is stable and SAFER

• A long time lag– Can amplify variance, before corrective

action is taken– Is potentially dangerous

Control Diagram

• Closed Loop– Ignore Open Loop, it only exists in theory

• A system has– Input– Transformation Process– Measured Output– Comparison of the Output with desired Goal– Actuator to adjust Input

Control Diagram or Model

Input(s)“Black Box”Transformation Process

Output(s)

Feedback Loop

Control Diagram or Model

Input(s)Input(s) ActuatorActuator “Black Box”Transformation Process

“Black Box”Transformation Process

ComparatorComparator

Output(s)Output(s)

GoalGoal

Feedback

Summary of Factors to Consider

• Purpose of the diagram– to aid your own thinking– to inform or convince others

• Assess the Influence or Effects of the factors involved

• Estimate the Size of the effects of the factor• Use what you have learned in the rest of your

And Finally

• Do practice doing the diagrams correctly to the conventions

• Can be more flexible on these conventions, once it is clear they have been mastered– Diagrams are tools– Their value is their utility for you and/or your

audience

Any Questions?

Now or later to

consult@20cc.co.uk

020 8680 3511 or 0788 799 2427

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