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The American Electorate of the 21st Century
The American Electorate of the 21st Century
Morley Winograd and Michael D. HaisNDN Fellows and Co-authors of “Millennial Makeover”
Morley Winograd and Michael D. HaisNDN Fellows and Co-authors of “Millennial Makeover”
New American Demographics
America Is a Dynamic and Changing Nation
The New America:
• Is about to be shaped by the Millennial Generation, the largest and most
diverse generation in U.S. history
• Is more ethnically diverse
• Is more Southern and Western
• Is better educated
• Has a smaller manual labor force,
especially among white population
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Mill
ion
s o
f B
irth
s
BOOMER
S
GEN-XERS MILLENNIALS
There are now about 17 million more Millennials alive than Baby Boomers and 27 million more Millennials as there are members of Generation X.
Total U.S. Births, in Millions, 1950 to 1998
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (2000)
Millennials Will Increasingly Dominate the ElectorateOver the Next Decade
41%
17%
51%
20%
61%
24%
80%
30%
99%
36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2010 2012 2016 2020
Percentage of Millennials Eligible to Vote Millennial Contribution to Voting Age Population
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006
White - Non-Hispanic Minority
The Rise of a Multi-racial America
Percentage of the U.S. Population that is White drops by 25%
Source: US Census Bureau
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
White, Non-Hispanic Minority
On Track to Becoming Majority Minority
Source: U.S. Census, March, 2004; Pew Research Center, 2/11/08
The U.S. Will be 47% White by 2050
Hispanic Population Boom
By 2050, Hispanics will be more than ¼ of the US population
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total Population Hispanic Population
Source: US Census Bureau and Pew Hispanic Center, 2/11/08
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1850 1900 1950 2000
Northeast Midwest South West
Americans Moving South and West
100 Largest Cities Shift from Northeast to South and West
Source: Census.gov
The Dream of Mass Education is a Reality
in 21st Century America
Source: US Census Bureau
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
1940
1960
1980
2000
2008
Less Than CompleteHigh School
High School Graduates
Some College
College Graduates
Adults 25+
The Labor Force Transformed
Source: US Census Bureau
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Professional
Managerial
Clerical/Sales
Manual
Farmers/Other
1940
2006
FDR’s Dominant Voter CoalitionFDR’s Dominant Voter Coalition
• Southern Whites
• White workers
• Central, Eastern, and Southern European immigrants and their children
• African-Americans in America’s big cities
The Democratic New Deal Coalition Dominated American Politics in the Mid-20th Century
The Democratic New Deal Coalition Dominated American Politics in the Mid-20th Century
• Won the presidency in 7 of 9 elections, 1932-1964
• Controlled Congress in 16 of 18 Congresses, 1932-1966
• Transformed economic policy from laissez-faire to governmental activism
• Transformed foreign policy from isolationism to interventionism
• Moved America from segregation toward racial equality
Nixon’s Republican Southern Strategy Cracks the New Deal Coalition
Nixon’s Republican Southern Strategy Cracks the New Deal Coalition
• Won the presidency in 7 of 10 elections, 1968-2004• Won the presidency in 7 of 10 elections, 1968-2004
• Controlled Congress consistently from 1995-2007• Controlled Congress consistently from 1995-2007
• Halted or rolled back New Deal and Great Society economic programs• Halted or rolled back New Deal and Great Society economic programs
• Campaigned on divisive social and racial issues• Campaigned on divisive social and racial issues
The White South Leaves the Democratic CoalitionPartisanship of Southern White Presidential Popular Vote
Data sources: 1932 & 1952: Tabulated popular vote totals1997-2008: New York Times exit polls
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1932 1952 1976 1980 1988 1996 2000 2004 2008
Democratic Republican Independent
The Disappearing White Working ClassOccupation of White Voters by Decade
Data source: NES Cumulative File
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1952-1960 1962-1970 1972-1980 1982-1990 1992-2000 2002-2008
Manual Clerical/Sales Professional/Managerial
White Workers Leave the Democratic CoalitionOccupation of White Democratic Voters by Decade
Data source: NES Cumulative File
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1952-1960 1962-1970 1972-1980 1982-1990 1992-2000 2002-2008
Manual Clerical/Sales Professional/Managerial
Millennial Strategy Program®
Frank N. Magid Associates is widely recognized as the preeminent
generational insights organization
Frank N. Magid Associates is widely recognized as the preeminent
generational insights organization
� Over the past six years, the Millennial
Strategy Program® has conducted over
60,000 online interviews, hundreds of in-
home and other ethnographic sessions,
and led numerous qualitative group
discussions
� Formed in 2005, The Millennial Strategy Program® is
grounded in Magid’s 50 years of primary research
expertise and illuminated with deep knowledge of social,
cultural, and political events. Through extensive focus on
the role of Baby Boomers, Gen Xers, and Millennials, the
firm has unparalleled insight into the ways generational
movements define worldwide culture, business success,
and influence political and social events.
� We look at generations as much more than age-groups,
which is why we study historical events and use multiple
methodologies and research techniques
Millennial Clients
� ABC-Disney Television Group� ABC Family� Anheuser-Busch� AOL� Bonneville International� Clear Channel Communications� Comcast Cable� Conde Nast� Cox Enterprises� Current TV� DirecTV� Dispatch Group� Dow Jones Company� Evening Post Publishing� General Growth Properties� Hearst Corporation� Lee Enterprises� MediaFlo� Media General � Meredith Corporation� NBC� New York Times� News Corp� Paramount Television� Saban Capital� Sony Pictures Television� Sony PlayStation/SCEA� Tribune Interactive� Warner Bros Television� Washington Mutual
Michael Hais
•Extensive media, entertainment, and political experience.
•Retired VP-Entertainment Research, 22 years with
Frank N. Magid Associates, world’s most influential media research firm.
•Designed and analyzed 1200+ quantitative surveys and 2000+
qualitative projects at Magid.
•Democratic pollster in Michigan, 1970s and 1980s.
•Ph.D. political science, dissertation on party coalitions and realignment.
•Co-authored, with Morley Winograd, Millennial Makeover, New York
Times 2008 top-ten book.
An Emerging New and Potentially Dominant21st Century Democratic Coalition
•Young voters
•African-Americans
•Hispanics
•Women
•The Northeast and West
•Highly educated Americans
Young Voters Increasingly Democratic Since 1980sPartisanship of 18-29 Presidential Vote
•Young voters were Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964) in 1976 and 1980.
•The first members of Generation X (born 1965-1981) voted in 1984.
•The first Millennials (born 1982-2003) voted in 2000.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Democrat Republican Independent
Data source: New York Times exit polls
African-Americans and Hispanics: Democrats for Decades
Data source: New York Times exit polls
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
African-American Hispanic
Democratic Percentage of African-American and Hispanic Presidential Vote
Women Increasingly Democratic Since 1980sPartisanship of Female Presidential Vote
Data source: New York Times exit polls
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Democrat Republican Independent
Since 1980 a "gender gap," women averaged 8% more Democratic than men.
Northeast and West Increasingly Democratic Since 1980s
Data source: New York Times exit polls
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Northeast West
Democratic Percentage of Northeast and West Presidential Vote
College Graduates and Postgraduates Increasingly Democratic Since 1980s
Data source: New York Times exit polls
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
College graduates Postgraduates
Democratic Percentage of College Graduate And Postgraduate Presidential Vote
A New Democratic Party Majority
* Partisans and leaners combined
Data source: Pew Survey Research Center
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
2009
Democrats Republicans
National Party ID*
The 21st Century Democratic Coalition Is Majority Female
Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
55%
45%
44%
56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Republican Identifiers/Leaners
Female Male
The 21st Century Democratic Coalition Is Younger
Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
•A majority of Democrats are from the two youngest generations•Six in ten Republicans are from the two oldest generations
21%
32%
32%
15%
14%
26%
35%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Republican Identifiers/Leaners
Millennial Generation Generation X Baby Boomer Generation Silent Generation
68%
14%
11%
5%
1%
89%
2%6%
3%1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Democratic
Identifiers/Leaners
Republican
Identifiers/Leaners
White African-American Hispanic Asian Other
The 21st Century Democratic Coalition Is More Ethnically Diverse
Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
The 21st Century Democratic Coalition Skews to the Northeast and West
Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
30%
23%
27%
20%
40%
22%
23%
15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Democratic
Identifiers/Leaners
Republican
Identifiers/Leaners
South Midwest West Northeast
Both Male and Female Millennials Identify as Democrats
Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
50%
22%
28%
55%
22%
21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Male Millennials Female Millennials
Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Independents
Republican Identifiers/Leaners
Millennial Democratic Loyalties Cross Ethnic Lines
Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
47%
22%
32%
75%
16%
9%
66%
19%
15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
White Millennials African-American
Millennials
Hispanic Millennials
Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Independents Republican Identifiers/Leaners
New AttitudesNew Attitudes
America is no Longer a “Center-Right” Nation
• Americans favor activist government
• Americans want government to promote economic equality
• Americans favor multilateralism in foreign policy
Conventional Wisdom to the Contrary, Most Americans Continue to Support Activist Government
* 2009 sample Millennial, Gen-X, and Boomer Generations only. 2010 percentage based on those generations only.Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
15%
17%
54%
58%
30%
26%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Not sure
Favor government
actively trying to
solve problems
Favor government
staying out of
society & economy
2009*
2010*
The New 21st Century Democratic Coalition Favors Activist Government
Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-American Hispanic
Favor government actively trying to solve problems
Favor government staying out of society & economy
Not sure
Conventional Wisdom to the Contrary, Most Americans Continue to Support Policies Promoting Economic Equality
* 2009 sample Millennial, Gen-X, and Boomer Generations only. 2010 percentage based on those generations only.Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
18%
17%
32%
30%
50%
53%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Not sure
Let each person get
along on their own even if
some have more
Ensure that all Americans
have basic standard of
living and income even if
it increases spending
2009*
2010*
The New 21st Century Democratic Coalition Favors Economic Equality
Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-
American
Hispanic
Ensure that all have basic standard of living and income even if increases spending
Let each person get along on their own even if some have more
Not sure
Most Americans Continue to Support Multilateralism in Foreign Policy
* 2009 sample Millennial, Gen-X, and Boomer Generations only. 2010 percentage based on those generations only.
Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
16%
16%
31%
29%
53%
55%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Not sure
Best way to protect
national security is by
relying on military
strength
Best way to protect
national security is
through building strong
alliances with other
nations
2009*
2010*
The New 21st Century Democratic Coalition Favors Multilateralism in Foreign Policy
Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-
American
Hispanic
Best way to protect national security is through building strong alliances with other nations
Best way to protect national security is by relying on military strength
Not sure
New Mobilization StrategiesNew Mobilization Strategies
Contrary to Conventional Wisdom the Democrats Can Win in 2010… If They Mobilize the New 21st Century Coalition
Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
2010 Congressional Vote Intention
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-
American
Hispanic
Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Other candidate Undecided
Mobilization Issues: Getting the Coalition Registered
Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-
American
Hispanic
Registered to Vote Moved since 2008
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-
American
Hispanic
Absolutely certain will vote in 2010 Very important which party wins in 2010
Mobilization Issues: Getting the Coalition Inspired and to the Polls
Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2008 General Election Contribution to
Electorate
2010 U.S. Senate Special Election
Contribution to Electorate
18-29 year olds 30-44 year olds Minorities
Democratic Identifiers Self-perceived liberals
Massachusetts: A Case Study in Losing by Not Using the New Coalition
Data sources: 2008—CNN Election Day exit poll
2010—PPP Final pre-election poll, January 16-17, 2010
•Majorities of all groups, except 30-44s, voted Democratic in both 2008 and 2010