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transcript
3D Printing and the Future (or Demise) of Intellectual Property
John Hornick
December 2015
2
First, a Disclaimer
“Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they the shadows of things that May be?”
» Ebenezer Scrooge, to the Third Spirit
Keep in Mind . . .
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Keep in Mind
Tipping into the mainstream
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Keep in Mind
Tipping into the mainstream
Everything will change . . .
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Keep in Mind
Tipping into the mainstream
Everything will change . . .
Implications
Why the Future (or Demise) of IP?
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Three Reasons
Democratization of manufacturing
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Three Reasons
“There is a persistent widespread belief that intellectual property law (and patents in particular) encourage innovation. This is intuitive, however, the evidence to the contrary is now overwhelming and the unavoidable conclusion is that intellectual property actually stifles innovation.”
Prof. Joshua Pearce, Materials Science, Mich Tech
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Three Reasons
Away from Control
Why 3DP May Change Everything
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Micro
No assembly required
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Micro
No assembly required
Design freedom
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Micro
No assembly required
Design freedom
Cost Neutral – Complexity
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Micro
No assembly required
Design freedom
Cost Neutral – Complexity
– Batches of one
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Micro
No assembly required
Design freedom
Cost Neutral – Complexity
– Batches of one
– Customization
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Macro
Disruption/destruction
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Macro
Disruption/destruction Designs v. Products
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Macro
Disruption/destruction Designs v. Products Regional
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Macro
Disruption/destruction Designs v. Products Regional
Distributed
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Macro
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Macro
How can we have both?
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Macro
How can we have both?
What Would Happen If . . .
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What Would Happen If?
Anyone could make things
with virtually any functionality
away from control?
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What Would Happen if?
Cody Wilson
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What Would Happen if?
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What Would Happen if?
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Paradigm Shift
–Democratization of manufacturing No entry barriers
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Paradigm Shift
–Democratization of manufacturing No entry barriers
Lines blur
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Paradigm Shift
–Democratization of manufacturing No entry barriers
Lines blur
Fundamentally different products
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Paradigm Shift
–Democratization of manufacturing No entry barriers
Lines blur
Fundamentally different products
BACK TO making, not buying
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Paradigm Shift
As democratization increases . . .
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Paradigm Shift
As democratization increases . . .
Away From Control
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Paradigm Shift
IP increasingly irrelevant
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Paradigm Shift
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Paradigm Shift
–Customization replaces IP
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Paradigm Shift
–Customization replaces IP
–IP for infrastructure
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Paradigm Shift
–Customization replaces IP
–IP for infrastructure
–Non-IP-based business models
Disruption Checklist
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators
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Disruption Checklist
One more thing:
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Disruption Checklist
One more thing:
Away from control
3DP Today
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3DP Today
Price Range:
ASP:
Industrial Base:
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3DP Today
Price Range: $5K to $5M
ASP:
Industrial Base:
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3DP Today
Price Range: $5K to $5M
ASP: $87K ($90K)
Industrial Base:
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3DP Today
Price Range: $5K to $5M
ASP: $87K ($90K)
Industrial Base: ~80K
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3DP in Aerospace
“This is the ultimate manufacturing method for us”
“This is the future of manufacturing”
LEAP
Alabama
Weight
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3DP in Aerospace
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3DP in Aerospace
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3DP in Aerospace
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3DP in Aerospace
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3DP in Automotive
3 Cool Cars
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3DP in Automotive
3 Cool Cars
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3DP in Automotive
3 Cool Cars
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3DP in Healthcare
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3DP in Healthcare
Facial Reconstruction
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3DP in Healthcare
Heart sensor/defibrillator membrane
– Washington U, St. Louis, U of Illinois
2023
– University of Louisville
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3DP in Healthcare
Fundamentally Different Products
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Fundamentally Different Products
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Fundamentally Different Products
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Fundamentally Different Products
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Fundamentally Different Products
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Fundamentally Different Products
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Fundamentally Different Products
Materials are the Key
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Usual Suspects
– Plastics
– Metals
– Ceramics
– Food
– Glass
– Wood
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Star Trek Materials
Metal liquid @ 20C
– Flexible, stretchable
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Star Trek Materials
Metal liquid @ 20C
– Flexible, stretchable
Conductive Plastic
– Carbomorph
– Graphene 3DLab
– Functionalize
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Star Trek Materials
Graphene – Flexible
– Transparent
– Conductive
– Harder than diamond
– 200x stronger than steel
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Graphene
3DP Will Rock IP
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Rocking the IP World
All IP
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Rocking the IP World
All IP Most tech/products
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Rocking the IP World
All IP Most tech/products
Gartner: $100B by 2018
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Rocking the IP World
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Rocking the IP World
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Rocking the IP World 12,000 PATENTS/APPLICATIONS
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Rocking the IP World
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Rocking the IP World
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Rocking the IP World
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Rocking the IP World
Disruption Checklist Where Are We Now?
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials Loughborough U FACTUM HSS
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . . .
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale NE U NanoOPs
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
Focused Electron Beam Induced Deposition
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially . . .
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Disruption Checklist
Industrial scale – Large build platform
– Speed or scale
Industrial or Home scale --2014: 140,000 – Hybrid materials
– Ability to print complex structures
– Micro scale printing
– Hybrid machines
– Innovators, especially kids
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Disruption Checklist
One more thing:
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Disruption Checklist
One more thing:
Away from control
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Disruption Checklist
One more thing:
Away from control
What Will Happen Next?
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Short Term
Within Control
Mass Production
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Longer Term
Away from Control – 5 Is
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Longer Term
Away from Control – 5 Is Infringement
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Longer Term
Away from Control – 5 Is Infringement
Identification
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Longer Term
Away from Control – 5 Is Infringement
Identification
Impractical/Impossible
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Longer Term
Away from Control – 5 Is Infringement
Identification
Impractical/Impossible
Irrelevant
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Away from Control
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Away from Control
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Away from Control
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Longer Term
Away from Control
Bigger Effect: Why buy brands?
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Longer Term
“Do I envision a future where we might still own the file, from an IP perspective, . . . and you can manufacture that in your home . . .? Oh yeah, that’s not that far away.” Eric Sprunk, COO
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Longer Term
“Do I envision a future where we might still own the file, from an IP perspective, . . . and you can manufacture that in your home . . .? Oh yeah, that’s not that far away.” Eric Sprunk, COO
“will people still pay for that Nike file . . . or will . . . people . . . rather brag that they . . . designed and printed their own shoes instead of simply printing a file from a company?” Michelle Matisons, 3Dprint.com
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Longer Term
Away from Control
Bigger Effect: Why buy brands?
Biggest Effect: – Mass production
A 3D Printer in Every Home?
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A 3D Printer in Every Home?
“I think every home within 10 years, probably less than that, will have its own 3D printer, just as many homes now have a 2D or laser printer”
Andy Bird, Chairman, Disney International
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A 3D Printer in Every Home?
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A 3D Printer in Every Home?
MINK PRINTEER
Disney:
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A 3D Printer in Every Home?
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A 3D Printer in Every Home?
My Vision
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My Vision
Within Control
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
“We want our machines to make anything” in 5 years
Epson
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
– Every classroom
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control – iFactory
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control – iFactory
– Every home
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control – iFactory
– Every home
– Any functionality
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control – iFactory
– Every home
– Any functionality
– Easy as a breadmaker
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My Vision
Within Control – Multi-function
machines
– Radically different L&F
– Complement TM
– Every classroom
– Flourishing economies
Away from Control – iFactory
– Every home
– Any functionality
– Easy as a breadmaker
– IP increasingly irrelevant
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When?
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten”
Bill Gates
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Will we be Ready?
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Will we be Ready?
“a substantial portion of manufacturers may be caught off-guard by the rapid changes underway”
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Takeaways
Everything will change
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Takeaways
Everything will change
–When you can make anything
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Takeaways
Everything will change
–When you can make anything
IP, it’s not dead yet!
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QUESTIONS??
john.hornick@finnegan.com
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Thank you for your time! john.hornick@finnegan.com 202-408-4076
www.finnegan.com
FOLLOW MY TWEETS: @ JHornick3D1Stop
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Disclaimer These materials are public information and have been prepared solely for educational and entertainment purposes to contribute to the understanding of U.S. intellectual property law. These materials reflect only the personal views of the authors and are not a source of legal advice. It is understood that each case is fact specific, and that the appropriate solution in any case will vary. Therefore, these materials may or may not be relevant to any particular situation. Thus, the authors and Finnegan, Henderson, Farabow, Garrett & Dunner, LLP cannot be bound either philosophically or as representatives of their various present and future clients to the comments expressed in these materials. The presentation of these materials does not establish any form of attorney-client relationship with the authors or Finnegan, Henderson, Farabow, Garrett & Dunner, LLP. While every attempt was made to ensure that these materials are accurate, errors or omissions may be contained therein, for which any liability is disclaimed.