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5G: Not just mobile carriers
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis, May 3
5G is More than Just Mobile CarriersDean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
For Dynamic Spectrum Alliance, May 2018
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
Image credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley
Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis
◼ Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991
◼ Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy
◼ Cross-silo, contrarian, independent
◼ Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2018May 2018
Network Tech, Policy
& Business Models
Communications
Apps & ServicesTelecom-Futurism
Nuanced demand: Multiple delivery models for “capabilities”
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2018May 2018
Service(Subscribers)
Owned /
PrivateAmenity
Comm-
unity
Embed
Public
(Govt)
service
Service(Free /
fremium
users)
Multiple dimensions for future wireless networks
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2018May 2018
bpd
bps
Gbps
10m
Non-
critical
Function-
critical
90%99%
99.9%
99.99%Long-life
battery
Rechargeable
battery
Mains
electricity
Generator
Harvested
Power
3DCoverage
Bandwidth
Kbps
ImportanceBusiness-
critical
Safety-
critical
Range
<1m
Mbps
And also:
Security model
Mobility
Integration
Bi-directional
Protocols etc
1km
>10km
100m
4G / 5G / LPWA /
Satellite
Managed spectrumWi-Fi
Every vertical sector has unique wireless requirements
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2018May 2018
Not just industrial interest in enterprise cellular
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2018May 2018
In-room coverage,
“unroaming” for guests
& “Free 5G” for
conference guests
All-operator coverage,
UC/meeting integration,
workgroup/team billing
Capacity density, Instant
replays via MEC nodes,
Content rights
protection, VIPs
Ultra-low latency,
compliance/recording, data
sovereignty, private
number/addresses
Critical comms, 100%
coverage in buildings /
underground, secure,
pre-emption, new IoT
Communities,
challenging economics,
neutral hosts,
Government priorities
Dedicated spectrum enables limited business models
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2018May 2018
National MNO licences
B2C Prepay &
Post-Paid
Subscriptions
IoT EmbeddedWholesale, eg
MVNO
Non-MNO licences
Government eg
Public Safety
Few corps, eg
utilities, rail
Alternative approaches needed: Shared, Dynamic,
Sub-licenced, Secondary Re-use etc
Traditional MNOs address some verticals/sites, but not all
◼ Limited domain expertise
◼ Coverage challenges
◼ Site access difficulties
◼ Safety / other certification
◼ Data security / ownership
◼ IoT platform integration
◼ Liability issues
◼ Regulatory limits
◼ Commercial model
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2018May 2018
Also: Network-slicing in 5G solves different (wide-area) problems
Many possible stakeholders / models with shared spectrum
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2018May 2018
Government
Public safety,
shared national
wholesale
network, city
authorities
Industrial
companies
Owned &
controlled IoT
connections
(cost/risk
calculation)
Utilities &
infrastructure
Energy,
transport, utility,
rail etc. with
unique needs &
coverage rqts
Venue Owners
Higher rent /
happy visitors &
Neutral Host $$
Rural
providers
Connecting
unconnected.
neutral host,
govt subsidy
etc
Niche MNO
entrants
Geo-specific
license for new
service / rev
types eg
enterprise
IoT solution
integrator
Embedded
WAN ability in
similar fashion
to WiFi / LoRa
Community /
decentralised
Improve off-grid
locations, offer
neutral-host or
mesh /
micropayment
Many “moving parts” to create private 4G/5G networks
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2018May 2018
Shared &
Unlicensed
SpectrumIoT / MVNO
/ MVNE /
Slicing
platformsSmall
Cells,
WiFi,MEC,
DAS,
cabling
eSIM &
RSP
Virtualised
Core /
Transport
Network
Cloud OSS
/ BSS
Number
ranges &
MNCs
Roaming &
Inter-
connect
hubs
Devices &
chipsets
Voice, PTT,
video,
messaging
Physical
design,
integrate &
build
Conclusions, 2018-2022
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2018May 2018
High
Mobility
Low
Mobility
Traditional
MNOsNon-MNO
SPs
Private &
Government
Wi-Fi
Bluetooth, ZigBee etc
LoRa / LoRaWAN
CBRS / MulteFire
NB-IoT unlicensed?
Other LPWA & Industrial
PMR / TETRA
Private LTE / 5G
Private MVNO
Satellite
Vertical-specific (eg auto)
4G / 5G for MBB
LTE-Cat M1+
Legacy 2G/3G
Hybrids / Multi-Network
NB-IoT (esp. China)
4G / 5G MBB + M1
Legacy 2G/3G M2M
Wi-Fi
Some LoRa, SigFox
Wi-Fi
SigFox, LoRa, other LPWA
NB-IoT unlicensed
MVNOs
Multi-Network
MVNOs
LTE/5G & shared spectrum
“Slice operators” (maybe)
Satellite & HAPs
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Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017May 2018