1 POPSCAN – Etudes 2012 – Présentation du 31/1/13

Nathalie.fuentes@cnes.fr

IAASS 21-23 May 2013

Nathalie FUENTESFrench Space Agency

General Inspection and Quality Directorate

POPSCANA CNES GEO-INFORMATION STUDY FOR RE-ENTRY RISK ASSESSMENT

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A technology watch on Geographic Information (GI)

3 Objectives

► Calculate collective risk

numerical distribution of population

over the potential fallout zone

(ELECTRA)

► Display Critical areas

large urban areas, communication

networks, sensitive human activities,

protected areas (ORESTE)

► Provide land occupation

for environmental studiesComputed ELECTRA Impact footprint and

level of risk by cell, on ORESTE display

CNES Partner : SERTIT, Image Processing and Remote Sensing Service of the

University of Strasbourg, France,

specialized in GI Production and analysis derived from Earth observation data.

delivers crisis GI and maps within the charter « Space and Major Disasters »

N. Tholey, S. Battiston, M. Studer, M. Montabord

nadine.tholey@sertit.u-strasbg.fr

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Geographic Information Data Sources Inventory

5 Thématics

Population

Urban areas

Communication networks

Sensitive human activities

Land occupation / protected areas

28 relevant geographic databases with

world coverage

criterias : reliability, consistency, accuracy

and resolution, update frequency,

availability and cost, delivery format

Many other relevant geographic

databases, but with continental or

national coverage

Exhaustivité PrécisionExhaustivité Précision

Ourairports (NGA – US)

Technical summary sheets were elaboratedfor all relevant GI databases, including

appreciation on exhaustivity & precision

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Digital analysis, selected GI datasets

Population grids: Landscan 2010 GPWv3 2010

Urban areas: GRUMP Natural Earth Data VMAP0 ESRI GLOBCOVER DMSP ISA

Airports: OpenFlights OurAirports ESRI VMAP0 DAFIF

Global analysis impossible on whole world : Test areas defined in France,

French Guyana, Canada, Philippines, Indonésia, Africa, …

Landscan 2010 (ORNL - US)

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Digital analysis, method

Population grids : numerical comparisons with United Nations Organisation

population estimates, national statistic census on different sizes of administrative

units (state, regions, provinces, cities, …). Analyses on extrem values.

Population UNO (http ://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm) Canada Test Zone,and Statistic Institut of Canada (http ://www5.statcan.gc.ca/) references usedAdministrative limits : GADM (http://www.gadm.org/)

Urban areas : comparisons with urban coverage observed on satellite images.

Calculation of rates of detection, omission and over coverage.

Manilla Zone

ALOS AVNIR image and urbanarea of reference

Airports : comparisons with airports detected on satellite images. Calculation of

completeness rate, localisation precision.

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Test areas

Europe – France – South West, Bordeaux and Pau Zone

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North America – Canada – Ontario and Quebec - Timmins zone

Test areas

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South America – French Guyana

Test areas

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Asia – Philippines – Manilla zone

Test areas

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Asia – Indonesia – Banda Aceh zone

Test areas

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Africa – Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda – Bukavu and Bujumbura zone

Test areas

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Results, population grids

About population distribution, two global

models are suitable :

►The gridded population of the world

GPWv3 updated and distributed by the

Center for International Earth Science

Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University.

This grid is the current CNES reference

database for ELECTRA calculations.

► The LandScanTM global population

database, produced by the Oak Ridge

National Laboratory ORNL, and

distributed by Eastview Company.

These two models are available on a grid format, allowing numerical

estimations on risks, and easy display via a geographic information system.

GPWv3 extrapolation 2010 (Ciesin)

on South West of France

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Results, population grids

GPWv3 and LandScanTM comparison, with advantages in green and limits in orange

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Results, population grids

Under estimation GPWv3 on world scale

and very often on national scale

(exception Guyana with major LANDSCAN under estimation)

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Results, population grids

Under estimation

GPWv3 observed on

national scale

(exception Guyana

with major

LANDSCAN under

estimation)

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Results, population grids

Under estimation GPWv3 on region scale (ex. Canada)

LANDSCAN GPWv3 2010

Difference with Statcan (Statistics Canada) in %

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Results, urban areas

Large imprecisions on many GI databases : omissions or over estimation on urban surfaces

Most conservative GI on a world scale : GRUMP (CIESIN, US) but no recent updateMost accurate GI on a world scale : DMSP ISA (NGA, US)

Taux de

détection

Taux

d’omission

Taux de

commission

DMSP ISA evaluation

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Results, airports

Ourairport (NGA, US) offers the

best completeness, even on

heliports and also the best

localisation precision.

Exhaustivité PrécisionExhaustivité Précision

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Conclusion

Population grids comparison on GPWv3 and LandScanTM points out an

under estimation of global population for GPWv3 2010 projected grid, and a

suspension of updates. LandScanTM offers a better resolution and is updated

every year but does not provide any opportunity for extrapolation.

POPSCAN study will improve analysis

on urban areas and sensitive human

activities Geographic Information.

Next step is to study the construction

of a Air-traffic density mapping

with a world coverage, regular updates

and extrapolation capacity.

Openflights” , East coast of US