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An Analysis of DED, EAB, and Historical Tree Canopy in Milwaukee, WI Arbor Day Partners Conference| November 19, 2015
Ian Hanou, Owner/PrincipalPresented by:
www.planitgeo.com | info@planitgeo.com 1
What if Milwaukee could have retained
elm street trees from DED mortality and what does this
mean for EAB management?
David Sivyer, Milwaukee Forestry Services Manager
Rich Hauer, Ph.D., Univ. of Wisconsin, Stevens Point
Ian Hanou and Richard Thurau, Ph.D., Plan-It Geo
Wisconsin DNR (50% of funding)
Collaborators
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Background and Purpose Historical Tree Canopy Ecosystem and Economic Methods Management Scenario Modeling Take Homes
Overview
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Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Aggressive pathogens are devastating urban forests
UF pest management is often reactive
UF management is being driven by canopy benefits
Total cost to restore canopy from major pests is staggering and poorly understood.
Background
4
Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Background
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When was the low point in Milwaukee’s canopy?
What was the cumulative loss in benefits from >100k
DED elm removals?
What is the B/C to have maintained elms, requiring
what level of maintenance?
How long did it take to recover?
What lessons can be applied to EAB?
What can we model of the elm population (structural
attributes, mortality, growth, and condition)?
Management Questions of this Study
5
Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Background
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Street tree population and EAB impacts ~195,000 street trees 31,500 ash street trees Or 16% loss of ROW canopy $46M structural damage $27M remove and replace cost (3” cal.)
Current EAB approach in MKE Treat ash every other year ($3.75/dia. inch, 18” avg. DBH, $33.75/yr)
Case study for phased conservation / treatment and flat-lining budgets
Background: EAB in MKE
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Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Background
Lack of science/research/options in 1960’s in MKE MKE 1956 elm population: 106,738
Currently <1,000 Removals peaked @ 16,580 in 1968
> 10,000/year for 4 years straightReplanting peaked @ 18,966 in 1970 Avg. 11,000/year from 1956-1982
Less on maintenance / beautification for 1-2 decades
Background: DED Impact in MKE
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19561957
19581959
19601961
19621963
19641965
19661967
19681969
19701971
19721973
19741975
19761977
19781979
19801981
19821983
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000
MKE Trees Planted by Year
Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Background
Urban trees provide quantifiable benefits / value Benefits can outweigh costs (positive B/C) Risk management / sanitation scenarios
No DED
Do Nothing
Actual
Fair
Good
Best
Assumptions and Approaches
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Source: Cannon and Worley 1976
Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Background
Modeling Inputs and Tools Used
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Elm population (cohorts)
Avg. DBH by cohort elm pop.
Mortality – natural and from DED – by sanitation
level (management scenarios)
Growth
Benefits (i-Tree and CTLA)
Costs (DED/EAB-PLANS)
Inflation CPI / PPI)
Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Background
Canopy Cover Estimation Aerial Examples Methods Imagery Used Results
Phase 1: Historical Tree Canopy Baseline
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Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Historical Canopy
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Historical Canopy Cover Estimation
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Elm Loss Over Time, Neighborhood Scale
1956 1979
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Historical aerial view of continuous street tree canopy cover in Milwaukee along West Capitol Drive (Top), North 27th Street (West), North Teutonia Ave (East), West Vienna Ave (South)
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Canopy Loss From 2013 to 1956
Canopy Points
All Other Points
Study Area: Rights-of-Way Sample Points: Rights-of-Way Sample Points: Citywide
Historical Canopy Cover Estimation Methods
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Imagery Year
Spectral Bands
Known or Approximate Resolution
Example
1956 Black & White ¼ meter
1963 Black & White ¼ meter
1969 Black & White ¼ meter
1979 Black & White ½ meter
1986 Color Infrared 1 meter
2013 True Color (NAIP) 1 meter
Historical Imagery Used
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Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Historical Canopy
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Year Canopy Points
(of 500)
Canopy Cover
S.E. (±)
C.I. (±)
Canopy Area
(Acres)
Canopy Change by time period
(Acres)
% Change from prior assessment
year
1956 1,500 8.7% 0.7 1.4 5,365 N/A N/A 1963 1,500 12.5% 0.9 1.8 7,754 2,389 44.5%
1969 1,000 10.0% 0.9 1.8 6,188 -1,566 -20.2% 1979 1,000 14.3% 1.1 2.2 8,849 2,661 43.0% 1986 1,000 14.6% 1.1 2.2 9,035 186 2.1% 2008 0 20.5% N/A N/A 12,663 3,628 40.2% 2013 1,500 22.7% 1.1 2.2 14,066 1,403 11.1%
Historical Canopy Cover: Citywide
15
Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Historical Canopy
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Year Canopy Points
(of 500)
Canopy Cover
S.E. (±)
C.I. (±)
Canopy Area
(Acres)
Proportion of All Canopy Citywide
Canopy Change (Acres)
% Change
1956 96 19.2% 1.8 3.5 2,731 51% N/A N/A 1963 119 23.8% 1.9 3.7 3,385 44% 654 24.0% 1969 80 16.0% 1.6 3.1 2,275 37% -1,109 -32.8% 1979 63 12.6% 1.5 2.9 1,792 20% -484 -21.3% 1986 71 14.2% 1.6 3.1 2,019 22% 228 12.7% 2008 0 25.7% N/A N/A 3,655 27% 1,636 81.0% 2013 116 23.2% 1.9 3.7 3,299 23% -356 -9.7%
Historical Canopy Cover: Rights-of-Way
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Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Historical Canopy
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Historical Canopy Cover: City vs. ROW
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In 23 years, the proportion of canopy in the ROW to the entire city dropped from 51% to just 20%, due to DED removals and increase private-property canopy.
Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Historical Canopy
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• Elm Pop. Modeling for Historical Tree Attributes • Ecosystem Benefits Assessment Modeling
• i-Tree Eco (benefit assessment & valuation)• CTLA Valuation
• Economic Modeling• Management Costs (DED-PLANS / CTLA)
Phase 2: Ecosystem and Economic Modeling
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Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Ecosystem & Economic Methods
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Elm Street Tree Structure Estimates
Year
Tree Structure Estimates
All Tree Species AOI ROW
% Canopy
% Canopy Estimate City
Wide
Elm Tree Diameter
(in)
Elm Tree Height
(ft)
Elm Crown
Width (ft)
1956 19.2 8.7 11.78 32.92 24.89
1963 23.8 12.5 14.6 36.14 28.93
1969 16 10 16.2 38.7 32.4
1979 12.6 14.3 19.6 42.63 38.18
1986 14.2 14.6 21.98 45.18 42.23
2008 25.7 21.9 29.46 N/A N/A
2013 23.2 22.7 31.16 N/A N/A
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Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Ecosystem & Economic Methods
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Elm Pop. by Mgmt. Scenario 1956-1996
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 400
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Number of Trees Surviving No Control
Fair Control
Good Control
Best Control
Actual Outcome
No DED
Years
Num
ber o
f Tre
es
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Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Ecosystem & Economic Methods
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Ecosystem Service Types: Actual vs. “Best”
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Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Ecosystem & Economic Methods
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22
Combined Annual Ecosystem Services by Sanitation (Management) Level
“Good” is half of “Best” after 40 years
Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Ecosystem & Economic Methods
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$11.2M in lost stormwater management benefits $74.0M in lost air pollution removal benefits $27.3M in lost energy savings benefits $8.3M in lost carbon sequestration/storage benefits Total of $120.8M in lost ecosystem benefits
(1956 – 2013)
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Cumulative “Foregone” Ecosystem Services(“Best”, net from Actual)
Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Ecosystem & Economic Methods
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24
Cumulative “Foregone” Ecosystem Services
(net compared with Actual)Backgroun
d
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Ecosystem & Economic Methods
www.planitgeo.com | info@planitgeo.com
25
Costs: DED-PLANning Simulator)Backgroun
d
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Ecosystem & Economic Methods
• DED ManagementCostsNPVB/CMethod Comparison
• EAB Management NPVB/C
• Take Homes
Phase 3: Management Scenario Modeling
26
Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
www.planitgeo.com | info@planitgeo.com
Like it or not, urban pests (DED) will cost you $$
Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
www.planitgeo.com | info@planitgeo.com
Net Benefit of DED ManagementBackgroun
d
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
www.planitgeo.com | info@planitgeo.com
Net Benefit of DED ManagementBackgroun
d
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
www.planitgeo.com | info@planitgeo.com
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$13,419,019
$3,410,017
$14,316,026 $14,762,930
$9,119,333
$2,185,120
$0
$12,129,979
$0
$18,885,048 $0
$0 Treatment Cost Planting Cost Removal Cost
Management Option
Man
agem
ent C
ost
EAB Management: it will cost you moneyBackgroun
d
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
www.planitgeo.com | info@planitgeo.com
EAB Management: Net Benefit
32
Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
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Do Nothing is the lowest cost, if you don’t look at benefits.
Take Home’s
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Background
Historical Canopy
Eco & Economic Methods
Mgmt. Scenario Modeling
Take Homes
Questions
Take Homes
www.planitgeo.com | info@planitgeo.com
Urban trees are a long-range solution, but don’t make shortsighted decisions
Focus on the host population, not the pest, for proactive management & flat-line budgets
Benefits from one ecosystem service, e.g. air pollution reduction, can pay for UF pest management alone.
Active management of urban forest pests results in net benefits, if trees have value.
Alberta, Canada: Still DED Free
34
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Historical Photos
ContactsIan Hanou, Owner and Director, Business DevelopmentIanHanou@PlanItGeo.com
A geospatial analysis, technology consulting, and planning firm specializing in urban natural
resource management.Info@PlanItGeo.comwww.planitgeo.com
www.facebook.com/PlanItGeo
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David Sivyer, Forestry Services Manager, City of MilwaukeeDavid.Sivyer@milwaukee.govDr. Rich Hauer, University of Wisconsin, Stevens PointRichard.Hauer@uwsp.edu