Low Carbon Resilience: Transformative Climate Change Planning for Canada

ACTAdaptation

to Climate

Change Team

September 12, 2016Edward Nichol, Senior Researcher, ACTLivable Cities ForumHalifax, Nova Scotia

• Low Carbon Resilience• Mitigation + Adaptation

• Introduction

• Background• The Canadian Context• Defining and Positioning LCR

• LCR in Today’s Political Climate• The International Scale• New Federal Approaches

• Incorporating Resilience Into a Low Carbon Future• Mitigation Through Carbon Pricing: Opportunities to Adapt• Resilient Renewables

Outline

• Low Carbon Resilience and Ecosystem Services• Soil Health

• Extreme Heat

• Stormwater and Flooding

• Ecosystem Health

• The Business Case for Low Carbon Resilience• Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services

• Preserving Infrastructure: The Costs of Inaction

• Final Thoughts

Outline (continued)

• Necessary emissions reductions, necessary adaptation

• Separate issues, fragmented solutions

• Loss of stationarity (increasing uncertainty)

• Biodiversity and natural systems threats

• Mitigation without adaptation: Building in vulnerability

• Adaptation without mitigation: Maladaptation

• Complimentary approach

Introduction

• Mitigation + Adaptation

• Historically one or the other

• Window of opportunity

• Win-wins, co-benefits for natural systems, infrastructure, municipal costs, etc.

• Existing LCR

What is Low Carbon Resilience (LCR)?

• Environmental hazards (extreme storms, drought, wildfire, flooding)

• Financial strains at the municipal level

• Policy fragmentation

Background – The Canadian Context

• LCR history in Canada• Adaptation + Mitigation +

Sustainable Development (AMSD)

• Sustainability + Adaptation + Mitigation (SAM)

• Maladaptation

• Gaining traction

Background – Defining and Positioning LCR

• The Paris Agreement

• UN SDG’s

• Sendai Framework

• The IPCC

LCR in Today’s Political Climate – The International Scale

• Mandate letter to the Minister of the Environment: Reducing emissions, protecting communities

• Low carbon economy

• New Liberal budget –$125 million for infrastructure, $518 million for local infrastructure

LCR in Today’s Political Climate – New Federal Approaches

• Putting a price on carbon

• Taxes, trading mechanisms, combination approaches at provincial/national level

• Revenues: Investing in adaptation

• Reducing the municipal financial strain

Incorporating Resilience into a Low Carbon Future: Mitigation Through Carbon Pricing

• Alberta’s Climate Leadership Plan: A carbon pricing system designed to mitigate climate change through emissions reductions

• Revenue gained: adaptation solutions, mitigation solutions, rebates

• Sense of urgency – shifting to renewables

• Low carbon economy – national, provincial, municipal

• Planning for resiliency:• Disruptions to energy supply

• Avoiding costly refurbishments, relocations, upgrades

Resilient Renewables

• LCR in energy: Solar, geothermal, district energy • Resilient due to decentralized

design

• Preserving natural systems: Building on the existing footprint

• Risks to energy systems: • Hydropower in California

Resilient Renewables (continued)

Lucid Energy

• Soil Health• Unsustainable land use• The agroecology approach• Carbon storage: Top metre of the

Earth’s soils• No-till, cover cropping, etc:

restorative agriculture• Healthy soils and carbon/water

storage• Avoiding the “weather whiplash”• Education and collaborative farm

programs

Low Carbon Resilience and Ecosystem Services: Soil Health

• USDA Climate Smart Agriculture and Forest Strategy• The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has developed an integrated

plan to help farmers, ranchers, and forest land owners improve the potential to store carbon in soil through both voluntary and incentive-based actions that provide economic and environmental benefits. It is expected that this strategy will sequester 2% of their economy-wide net emissions, which is the equivalent of taking 25 million cars off the road. The USDA is also integrating efforts to improve energy efficiency and develop renewable and biomass energy potential in agricultural lands, further linking mitigation and adaptation potential on agricultural landscapes

Low Carbon Resilience and Ecosystem Services: Soil Health

• Heat trends

• Urban Heat Island (UHI)

• Particular importance for LCR: Energy needs, cooling needs

• Green infrastructure: trees, parks, rain gardens, green roofs

Low Carbon Resilience and Ecosystem Services:Extreme Heat

• Impermeable infrastructure in cities impacts drainage

• Ecosystem-based solution: Slowing and storing water

• Reducing the need for carbon/energy intensive processes, providing carbon storage

Low Carbon Resilience and Ecosystem Services:Stormwater and Flooding

• Improve biodiversity, link habitat, reduce fragmentation

• Species migration, extinction

• Wildlife “arks”

• BC’s Future Forest Ecosystems Initiative

Low Carbon Resilience and Ecosystem Services:Ecosystem Health

• Natural capital: geology, soil, air, water, living systems

• Ecosystem Services: Provisional, regulatory, habitat/supporting services, cultural services

• Natural asset management

• Property value

The Business Case for Low Carbon Resilience:Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services

• Town of Gibsons

• Municipalities and the infrastructure deficit: $123B, growing $2B/yr

• Infrastructure is aging

• New infrastructure lasts 50-100 years, extreme weather increasing

• Updating codes, standards for LCR

The Business Case for Low Carbon Resilience:Preserving Infrastructure and the Costs of Inaction

Table 3. Insured Costs of Selected Weather-Related Disasters in CanadaDate Location Climate

HazardEstimated

CostsInfrastructure Damage

Jun 2013

Alberta Heavy rains Total losses of $6 billion with insured losses of $1.7 billion.

Major power outages. Damage to major roads, including forced closure of the TransCanada highway and rail lines. 4 deaths and 100,000 people displaced.

Jul2013

Toronto Heavy rains Total losses of $1.2 billion with insured losses of $850 million.

Private property damaged. Forced closure and damage to the subway system.

Aug 2012

Alberta Heavy rains, hail, winds

$530 million Hail damage to buildings. Ripped sidings from buildings and residences. Basement flooding.

May 2011

Alberta Wildfire $742 million 450 properties destroyed and 84 damaged.

Jun2010

Alberta and Saskatchewan

Heavy rains $956 million Portion of Trans-Canada Highway washed out.

Jun 2009

Ontario and Quebec

Heavy rains $228 million Damaged roads and bridges. Flooded basements. 50 houses in Notre-Dame-des-Prairies flooded. Major street collapse.

Aug2005

Ontario Winds/rainstorm

$625 million Collapse of Finch Avenue. Damage to two high-pressure gas mains, and a portable water main.Damage to telephone, hydro and cable service lines.

June 2005

Alberta Flooding >$400 million Sewer backup. Roads, parks, sewers, bridges, buildings, agriculture affected.

• Mitigation alone is insufficient, we have to implement LCR

• Responding holistically to increasing uncertainty

• Low carbon movement

• Facilitating ecosystem services

• LCR as a mindset

• The time is now

Concluding Thoughts

For more information about ACT, our policy reports, and adaptation resources,

please go to act-adapt.org, or contact us at adapt@sfu.ca.

ACTAdaptation

to Climate

Change Team

Thank you! Questions?