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transcript
Deloitte Consulting LLP
Advanced Manufacturing Working Group
Initial Meeting
October 1, 2014
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Agenda
Topic Presenter Timing
Welcome Mark Price 10 Minutes
Introduction Jim Brett 10 Minutes
Objectives Chris Averill 15 Minutes
Advanced Manufacturing Report Mike Reopel 15 Minutes
Report Structure Brooke Lyon 10 Minutes
Report Content Brooke Lyon
Mike Reopel 50 Minutes
Review and Next Steps Chris Averill
Mark Price 10 Minutes
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Welcome and Introductions
Advanced Manufacturing Working Group
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Objectives
What we hope to achieve with this working group
Advanced Manufacturing Report
Endorsing legislation
Update on RAMI act
What we hope to achieve today
Insights for the Advanced Manufacturing Report
Thoughts on next steps
As used in this document, “Deloitte” means Deloitte Consulting LLP, a subsidiary of Deloitte LLP. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a
detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be available to attest clients under the rules
and regulations of public accounting.
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Advanced Manufacturing Report 2009
Highlights of the findings from the first
report issued in 2009
Conclusions
Recommendations
What we achieved
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Advanced Manufacturing Report 2014/2015
What we hope to achieve by refreshing the report now
What are the major items that have changed since the first report
Hubs
Additive manufacturing
New clusters and areas of advantage
Innovations in education and skill-force development
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Timeline for Report Refresh
October November December January February
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Initiate
Define Objectives
Working Group Mtg 1
Draft
Interviews
Research
Draft
Working Group Mtg 2
Finalize
Edit and adjust
Final Report
Publicize
Publish
Disseminate and discuss ongoing
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Outline – high level
1. Overview
current state and trends
2. Clusters
refine and draw networks, showing competitive advantages
3. Game Changers
emergence of digital and additive manufacturing
4. New Economics of Machining
automation, lean design, role of foreign investment
5. Education and Skill-force Development
role of community colleges and state universities
6. Policy
role of state economic development and required innovations
7. Growth Action Plan
next steps, interdependencies, timing, resources, innovations
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Desktop Design, Make and Sell-A Brand Changing
Proposition
1. CAD as the word processor for fabrication 2. 3D Scanner-can digitize the world
3. 3D printing-imagine it and then make it 4. Alternative Makes
Desktop CNC
Desktop Laser Cutter
Desktop water jet
5. Add electronics/sensors for
The internet of things 6. Market and sell on the web
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Overview
1
2
Sizing Advanced Manufacturing
Overall in NE
Each NE state
Economic Trends
Employment
GDP Growth
3
5
Productivity
Skills audit by state
Trends in apprenticeship
Value of Shipments
4 Investments
Companies that are investing and why
What states and regions are investing in
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Potential Clusters
Medical Devices
Aerospace and
Defence
Signal Processing,
Navigational Optic,
Measurement
Semi-conductors,
Complex Electronic
Components Material
Sciences
Competitive
Advantage? Advanced
Computing, AI
Instrumentation
and Sensors
Robotics and
Automation
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Game Changers
1
2
3
Advanced Manufacturing
Digital
Additive
4
Geographic Barriers
On-line collaboration
Small batching
Investment
Hubs
Innovation funds
Flexibility
Small/Medium batches
Low transportation costs
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Additive Manufacturing Defined
Additive manufacturing can transform the way products are manufactured and brought to market
Additive manufacturing is a process of joining materials to make objects from 3D model
data, usually layer upon layer, as opposed to subtractive manufacturing methodologies
Electronic design file
(e.g., .STL) of object
created using CAD or
scanner
Software slices model
into cross-sectional
layers and sends file to
AM
Following the design, the
AM layers raw material(s)
until the final object
emerges
Final object is
produced
with little/no waste
Additive Manufacturing can be used to….
Improve Quality Reduce Costs Increase Flexibility
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Structural Cost Differences
Melbourne,
Florida Waco, Texas Greensboro,
North Carolina Boston,
Massachusetts Keene, New
Hampshire Portland, Maine
Labor
(Ave Annual Salary) Electromechanical
Assembler $40,782 $39,042 $41,760 $49,741 $42,225 $41,897
Electronics Assembler
(general) $28,976 $27,421 $29,894 $35,909 $30,518 $30,597
Mechanical Engineer $83,819 $82,011 $83,970 $99,316 $82,099 $82,729 Mechanical Design
Technician $57,058 $55,683 $57,980 $69,162 $56,627 $57,426 Electrical Test
Engineer $87,763 $85,914 $87,879 $103,705 $85,947 $86,576 Manufacturing
Manager $95,139 $89,046 $94,479 $113,024 $92,325 $89,247
Estimated Benefits 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% Real Estate
(Lease/ ft2/ yr)
Ind/ WH Ave Rent $6.40 $5.19 $4.91 $13.95 $7.05 $5.73
Office Ave Rent $13.00 $12.05 $13.70 $37.13 $12.80 $14.95
Energy Rate Cost per kWh (by
county) $0.13 $0.08 $0.06 $0.13 $0.14 $0.13
Tax Tax Rate-Local plus
State 7.63% 7.76% 12.3% 11.13% 11.78% 10.87%
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DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY
-33%
-2%
-5%
-10%
Product Cost Economics
Will be revised for Medical Device, Aerospace, and
Signal Processing/High end Electronics Products
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Rate
Annual
machining value
add per
employee ($000)
Machining
value add per
hour worked
($/hr.)
Machining value add
per dollar wage
2010 2015
US average $145 $73.0 $1.93 $2.03
US with high automation $240 $121.0 $2.97 $3.12
NE low cost county $140 $71.0 $2.33 $2.45
China average $14 $7.2 $4.49 $3.35
Mexico average $55 $28.0 $3.50 $3.37
Machining value add
A new view of competitiveness
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Take
Advantage of
New
Technologies
• Value of skills over scale
• Economics of complex parts of low to medium volume
• Productivity vs. Rate
• Consider Total Cost of Ownership
• Digital manufacturing network driven by PLM and other collaborative technologies
• Value engineering across the network
• Invest in automation (“lights out” operations) capabilities
• Employ advanced machining optimization software
• Focus on low cost county suppliers for higher labor content parts
• Invest in dedicated cells for high velocity material flow
• Conduct joint process improvements such as APQP, value engineering and level loading
• Leverage network material spend and special process contracts
• Take advantage of Additive Manufacturing
• Leverage other advanced technologies such as MIMs and Advanced Analytics
5
Manufacturing Equipment:
CN
C - 1 spin
dle
CN
C - 2 S
pin
dle
s
Screw
M
achin
e - 1 S
pin
dle
Screw
M
achin
e - 2 S
pin
dle
s
Mill-T
urn C
enter
Horiz
ontal Lathe
Vertic
al Lathe
Manual
To
tal
CN
C V
ertic
al 3 A
xes
CN
C V
ertic
al 4 A
xes std.
CN
C V
ertic
al 5+
A
xes std.
Horiz
ontal 3 A
xes
CN
C H
oriz
ontal 4 A
xes
Horiz
ontal 5+
A
xes
Manual
To
tal
Internal
External
Internal - E
xternal
Centerle
ss
Surface
Jig
G
rin
d
Hone
To
tal
Stereolithography
To
tal
Tum
bling E
quip
ment
Vib
ratory E
quip
ment
Drag F
inis
hin
g E
quip
ment
Deburrin
g S
tatio
n
To
tal
Riv
etin
g
To
tal
Assem
bly
To
tal
Manual fusio
n
Autom
atic
fusio
n
Resis
tance (S
pot)
Resis
tance (S
eam
)
EB
W
eld
ing
To
tal
QTY 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gla
ss B
ead P
een
Shot B
ead P
een
Vapor B
last
To
tal
Jig
B
ore
Gun D
rilling
Laser D
rilling
To
tal
Sin
k
Wire
Fast H
ole
To
tal
Laser
Water Jet
To
tal
Mechanic
al <
= 50 T
ons
Mechanic
al >
50 T
ons
Hydraulic <
= 100 T
ons
Hydraulic >
= 100 T
ons
Hydro F
orm
Turret P
unch &
Laser
Turret P
unch
Manual <
= 50 T
ons
Manual >
50 T
ons
CN
C <
= 50 T
ons
CN
C >
50 T
ons
To
tal
A B C
To
tal
Surface
Internal
To
tal
Gear G
rin
der
Gear H
obbin
g
Gear S
haper
Gear H
onin
g
Bevel G
ear C
uttin
g
Helical G
ear G
rin
der
To
tal
QTY 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Additional Types of Manufacturing Equipment (with Quantity):
RivetingDeburring
Press Gear ManufacturingLapping Broaching
WeldingAssy
List any additional manufacturing equipment here.
Prototyping
EDM Cutting
Milling GrindingTurning
Peening Drilling
Invest in
Distinctive
Skills
4 Invest in
Automation
and
Optimization
3 Leverage the
Network for
Superior
Design
2 Structural
Cost
Vs.
Product Costs
1
New Economics of Machining-Skills vs. Scale
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Education and Skill-force Development
1
2
3
4
Role of public schools
Start in grade / high schools
Competitions and college credit
Vocational schools
Role of Higher Education
Apprenticeship models
Community Colleges or State Universities to
work with companies to sponsor certification
Loan and scholarships to connect to the
model
Innovations
Around the country
In New England
Possibilities
Competitive Advantages
Design schools (RISD, etc.)
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Policy
1
2
3
Role of Federal and State Policy
Legislation
What role do the States play in this?
Innovations
Inventory of innovations nationally
What innovations have spurred economic
development
Public/Private Partnerships
Role
Prospects
Social impact bonds
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Growth Action Plan
What should be done
Who should lead the action
Who should be involved
How to make the recommendations become
reality
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State Survey of Skill Gaps/Advanced Manufacturing Jobs Available
Desktop Design, Make, and Sell Technology and Engineering (Community
College/High School)
Talent Investment Scholarships and Loans
Community College-Industry-Community Apprenticeship Programs
Investment Credits for Automation
Product Innovation Competitions
Advanced Manufacturing Hub
…..
…..
……
Potential Recommendations/Emerging Ideas
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Review of the Timeline
October November December January February
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Initiate
Define Objectives
Working Group Mtg 1
Draft
Interviews
Research
Draft
Working Group Mtg 2
Finalize
Edit and adjust
Final Report
Publicize
Publish
Disseminate and discuss ongoing
About Deloitte
Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of
member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/about for a detailed
description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about
for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries. Certain services may not be available to attest
clients under the rules and regulations of public accounting.
Copyright © 2014 Deloitte Development LLC. All rights reserved.
Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
Appendix
24
Additive Manufacturing Adoption Timeline
Additive Manufacturing has been slowly gaining traction, specifically within design, however, new
technologies have the potential to amplify growth and extend usage within production
1989
AM Rapid
Prototype
System (FDM)
2011
SULSA
Prototype
2030-2050
(Estimated)
Completed Product
1986
AM
Invented
(SLA)
Design
Main Applications 1986 - 2011:
− Product Design
− Product Part Production
− Rapid Prototyping
− Concept Modeling
2014
Selective Laser
Sintering Patent Expires
2009
FDM Patent
Expires – Growth
in Consumer 3DPs
AM
Milestones
Impacts on
Aerospace
Industry
1986
Rapid
Prototyping
2004
Component
Manufacture
2007
Real-time
Spare Parts
Manufacture
2007
RepRap
Movement
2008
User
Generated Art
Product Design
Prototyping and Customization
Production
Scaling in Volume, Size, and Availability
Additive Manufacturing Timeline: The Shift in Additive Manufacturing Applications
2012
3D System
Acquires Z Corp
GE Acquires
Morris Technology
2016
Mass Production
LEAP engine part
Main Applications 2014 -
Future:
− End Product Production
− Mass Production
− Democratized Consumer
3D Printing
Catalyst for Mass Production Adoption1:
− GE plans to mass-produce 25,000 LEAP engine
nozzles with AM – already have $22B in
commitments
− Parts will drive production and operational cost
savings
− First test to see if AM can revolutionize production
There are a number of Additive Manufacturing technologies that can be categorized into four
groupings based on process
1
Granular Materials Binding
A laser or print head is used to sinter
the material into a solid by fusing the
material layer by layer in a granular
bed
2
4
3
Sheet Lamination
Extrusion Deposition
Light Polymerization
Thin sheets of laminated plastic or
metal material are unwound from a
feed roll and a heated. A laser or
knife is used to cut the desired area
Build material is allocated through a
heated extrusion nozzle moving
across the X-Y plane and selectively
depositing material
Process Description Usage Vendors
Drops of a liquid plastic are exposed
to ultraviolet light and converted into
a solid through a curing process
Multiple techniques
supporting a wide variety of
materials including metals
Certain applications require
post processing
Can build molds and cores
3D Systems
Stratasys
Arcam AB
EOS
ExOne
Cubic
Technologies
(Formerly Helisys
Inc)
Fast, inexpensive
manufacture of large parts
Due to glue between
layers, parts may not be
homgeneous
3D Systems
Stratasys
EOS
Builds strong, complex
parts, but slower method
Integral part of product
development due to its
speed and low cost
3D Systems
Stratasys (Objet)
Envision TEC
First rapid prototyping
process
Complex geometries with
high precision
Most profitable but future
adoption may lag other 3DP
Material Type
Processes End Market Users Plastics Metals Ceramics Composites
Light Polymerization
− Digital Light Processing
− Stereolithography (SLA)
− Film Transfer Imaging (FTI)
− PolyJet
Extrusion Deposition
− Fused Deposition Modeling
(FDM)
− Plastic Jet Printing
Granular Materials Binding2
− Direct Laser Sintering
(DMLS)
− Electronic Beam Melting
(EBM)
− Selective Laser Sintering
(SLS)
− Plaster and Sand Based
− Powder bed / Inkjet.
Sheet Lamination2
− Laminated Object
Manufacturing
Depending on the Additive Manufacturing technology, a number of different materials can
be used however, plastics and metals are the most predominant
1Wohlers Associates, Additive Manufacturing and 3D Printing State of the Industry, 2012, and various other web sources, Deloitte analysis 2In addition to the four major categories of materials listed above, Powder Bed and Inkjet Head 3D Printing (Granular Materials Binding) use sand molds, Laminated Object Manufacturing (Sheet
Lamination) uses paper, Electron Beam Melting (Granular Materials Binding) uses carbon, and Selective Laser Sintering (Granular Materials Binding) uses glass
Industrial Aero. & Defense Architecture Automotive Consumer Goods Legend:
Jewlery Medical Packaging Academics
Sample
Outputs
CP Models
Turbine Blades
Car Parts
Models
Forecast
Actuals
$ Bil.
Global Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing) Market Size and Forecast
Market Outlook
• Forecasts for growth of the AM
market by equity research analysts
range from: $7 billion by 2020, on 18
percent CAGR (Paul Coster of JP
Morgan), to bull market scenarios as
high as $21.3 billion by 2020, on 34
percent CAGR (Ben Uglow of
Morgan Stanley)
• Wohlers Associates predicts the
market for AM products and services
will reach $10.8 billion worldwide by
2020, taking into account previous
patterns of cyclicality, and barring
another global recession or
unforeseen natural disasters;
The global additive manufacturing market, reached sales of $3.0 billion in 2013, on annualized growth of
35 percent over sales of $2.3 billion in 2012. AM industry growth over the last 25 years has been 25.4
percent, and 29 percent in the last three years.
Note: Actuals based on Wohlers data.
Source: Wohlers Associates, May 2013; Morgan Stanley Research, September 2013; J.P. Morgan, January 2013
10.8
7.9
6.0
4.0
3.0 2.2
1.7 1.3 1.1
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
202020192017201520132012201120102009
AM Market Size ($ Bil.)
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Product Lifecycle Management encompasses all the major engineering processes and
enabling tools for concept to launch and service across a network
Configuration Management
Stage-Gate Processes
Project Analysis, Methods, Metrics, Scorecard, Executive Dashboard
Product Quality Management
CAPA ,RCA’s, Non-Conforming Material, audit , customer complaints, field service
Project Selection Process, Work Breakdown Structure, Schedule, cost Project Planning & Management
Design Collaboration Design Management
MCAD, ECAD, Simulation, SIL/HIL Test Technology, Design Practices
Resource Management
Behavioral models, vendor /supplier/customer collaboration
Work partitioning, allocation, estimates, deployment and budget management
Project Management
Build management, design version management, - design, test, release
Solution
Project Mgmt
Release
Management
Customer / Voice
Marketing
Sales
Field Engineering
Design Partners
Procurement
Suppliers
Research
Partners
Advanced Tech
Design
Engineering
Product
Management
Systems Engrg
PLM
Voice, Requirements Mgt, System Design, Spec Management, Integration and Validation
Requirements Management
Change Management
Problem Report, ECR, ECN, spec change, part changes, deviations, new part release, etc.
Supplier Management
Supplier Selection, RFP, RFQ, Approved manufacturer lists, design for cost
Product Compliance
Design for regulations, standards adherence
Hardware development and ERP Integration, Data exchange, UI extensions, process integration, web based portals
Integration Framework
Product Information
Product Definition, Specifications,
Product Structure and BOM
Management, Revisions
Effectivity Dates
Supplier
price/
rate
Tra
nsporta
tion
In tra
nsit in
vento
ry
Tariffs
(insura
nce, c
usto
ms, e
tc.)
Term
s o
f paym
ent/d
eliv
ery
Rew
ork
, scra
p, re
turn
to s
upplie
r
On tim
e d
eliv
ery
Warra
nty
Quality
inspectio
n c
osts
Tra
nsactio
n, p
rocess c
ost
Invento
ry c
arry
ing c
osts
Fle
xib
ility/E
merg
ency re
sponse
Afte
r-mark
et in
vento
ry
Supplie
r capability
enhancem
ent
Supply
base d
evelo
pm
ent
Afte
r sale
s b
usin
ess
Gauges/to
olin
g/fix
ture
s
Engin
eerin
g c
olla
bora
tion
New
pro
duct in
troductio
n
Perfo
rmance b
ased c
ontra
ct p
enaltie
s
Effo
rt dedic
ate
d to
impro
vem
ent e
fforts
Capacity
shortfa
lls
Landed Costs
Supply chain/Ownership cost
Life cycle cost
Opportunity cost
Total cost of ownership framework
Basics matter: Total cost of ownership
Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) analysis is a framework for
evaluating the combination of price and non-price financial
impacts of procured goods and services
Basics matter: Value engineering early in development
100%
VE Cost Reduction
Opportunities
Life Cycle Cost
Determined
Conceptual Design Detailed Design Production Service Support
70%
85% 95%
40%
25% 20%
80%
40%
0%
60%
15%
10%
The greatest lever to reduce total
lifecycle cost is making the right
design decisions early on
Learning Curve and New Technologies
Learning, Forgetting and Leapfrogging
Innovative technology may enable cost competitiveness
without the need for volume leverage
X 2X X4 8X 16X
Leapfrogging
Technology
New Materials/New
Technology
• Tight tolerance
assembly
• Additive
machining
• Risk-based
planning &
scheduling
• Moving assembly
lines
• Composites
• Metal injection
molding
• Automated cells Volume – Log Scale
3
$ Cost
2
1
Forgetting Curve due
to configuration
changes
Traditional
aerospace
learning curve
Prototype
92 – 86%