Agile for project managers - a sailing analogy-UPDATE

transcript

Agile for Project Managers

A sailor’s look at Agile

A presentation for

2012 GE Agile Conference

Produced by Square Peg Consulting, LLC

Orlando, Florida USA www.sqpegconsulting.com

Photo: US Navy

Agile and Sailing?

Really?

Photo: US Navy

So, let's get started!

Every sail (project) begins with a plan

Chart: US NOAA

• Opportunity

• Vision

• Narrative

• Constraints

• Resources

Recruit a small team (crew)

Redundancy among crew (team)

Crew master (captain) takes the helm

Photo: US Navy

Instinctive action

without direct

commands

Proven protocols

and practices

Commitment to the team

Every sailor—

individually and

collectively—is

committed

Trust from shared experience

Collaboration

and trust—

unconditionally

One for all ….

No individual

success without

collective

success

Define scope (narrative): sail for the marks

Prospective, strategic, top down:

Customer (sponsor) intones: ‘Make the marks’

Retrospective, tactical, bottom up:

Team commits to Best value—

the most—and the most

important—that can be

accomplished

Photo: US Navy

Photo US NOAA

Close the prospective—retrospective gap

Take a risk!

Crew master (captain) is the

ultimate risk manager

Maintains a mental image of the

risk register

Works the response plan real-

Photo: US Navy

Photo US NOAA

From narrative to architecture

Naval architect drives the strategic distribution of marks

Captain is the architect of the tactics

Photo US Naval Academy

Embrace change!

But… marks are updated, added new, or even deleted

from time to time

Lay-line is the plan

Lay-line: most efficient

course from “here” to

“there”

Sailing the ‘lay-line'

accumulates value

Lay-line → ‘planned value’

Lay-line → backlog burn-

down plan

Lay-line

Lay-line burn-down plan

Segment Lay-line segment Planned

Effort

burned

Earned

value Efficiency

Red day marker to

blinking light

(8 knts)

(1 hour)

started

Blinking light to green

day marker 16 NM

started

…….

…to blinking red 10 NM Not

started

Lay-line Segment

Navigation marks (Delivery milestones)

Wind is a source of energy

Motive energy for the boat (project)

Source of risks and unknowns

Represents (also) stakeholder biases, attitudes, and pressures

Complex and sometimes unpredictable

Environment: complex and adaptive

Boat-sails-rigging: methodology and practices

Wind: energy, risks

Mark: scope and sponsor expectations

Lay-line: back-log & plan to make the ‘mark’

Overall course: architecture

Complex: Many structural parts with uncertain interactions and behaviors

Adaptive: Changes over time to maintain fidelity of expectation

From energy to value

1. Maximize energy from favorable wind

2. Apply wind energy to create velocity

3. Measure velocity along the lay-line

4. Accumulate value by distance sailed

on the lay-line

Accumulated valued (distance): Velocity along the lay-line x elapsed time

Photo US NOAA

From energy to value

8 knots (velocity) x 1 hour (elapsed time)

= 8 NM (distance)

Accumulated valued (distance): Velocity along the lay-line x elapsed time

Photo US NOAA

Accumulate earned value

EV strategy:

Sail as close to the lay-line as possible

Claim value earned when the mark is reached

One segment

EV from 1 to 2

Tack to the mark

Tactical response to

circumstances

Emergent with the wind

Short performance

increments (time box)

Variance to the planned

lay-line

Tacking: sailing one direction, and then the other, across the lay-line

Most pessimistic forecast

Wind (risk) directly opposes the boat (project)

Least energy available in the direction of the lay-line

Strategy:

Find energy ‘off axis’ (evolve the plan)

Tack (incremental performance) across the lay-line

Pessimistic progress

❖Example:

2 units of input

❖Example:

2 units of input (increments)

increments Output:

projected along

the lay-line

Wind (energy and risk)

Lay-line

Output:

projected along

the lay-line 1.4

1.4 units of earned value along the lay line

Efficiency (Output / Input) = 70%

Benchmarks forecast velocity

Velocity creates 'throughput'

Throughput is "miles sailed" on the lay-line

"Miles sailed" are like stories completed

Benchmark units of performance

Velocity = performance units per unit

of time

Performance Unit (Story point) =

Nautical mile (NM)

Unit of time (Time Box) = 1 hour

Example:

8 knots velocity = 8 NM per hour

Lay-line burn-down

Segment

Nr Line segment

Planned

Effort

(time)

burned

Earned

value Efficiency

1 Red day marker to

blinking light

8 knts

1 hour

7 knts

1.5 hr

10.5 NM

2 Blinking light to green

day marker 16 NM

process

…….

N …to blinking red 10 NM Not

started

Lay-line burn-down

Segment

Nr Line segment

Planned

Effort

(time)

burned

Earned

value Efficiency

1 Red day marker to

blinking light

8 knts

1 hour

7 knts

1.5 hr

10.5 NM

8 NM 8/10.5

2 Blinking light to green

day marker 16 NM

process

…….

N …to blinking red 10 NM Not

started

Cost estimating with benchmarks

1. Backlog (performance units) NM

2. Velocity benchmark (units / time) knots

3. Unit cost benchmark (cost / time )

Expected cost = 𝐵𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑙𝑜𝑔

𝑉𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦∗ Unit cost

Inputs

Calculation

Cost estimating example

Expected cost = 40𝑁𝑀

8 𝑘𝑛𝑡∗ $1000 per hour

Expected cost = 5 ℎ𝑜𝑢rs ∗ $1000 per hour Expected cost = $5000

Expected cost = 𝐵𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑙𝑜𝑔

𝑉𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦∗ Unit cost

Example

Calculation

Schedule (earned schedule)

Earned schedule: effective time

made along the lay-line

ES = Total duration x efficiency

Photo: US NIST

Efficiency: effective duration / total duration

Earnable schedule example

• Planning metrics

–40 NM lay-line –8 Knot velocity benchmark –Earnable schedule:

40/8 = 5 hours

Photo: J Goodpasture

Agile schedule heuristic

A schedule without slack is a hope, requiring prayer…. But it’s unlikely to be an achievable schedule

Pessimistic schedule example

• Most pessimistic forecast:

– 𝐼𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡 =𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡

𝐿𝑎𝑦 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑦=

0.7= 57NM

– 𝐷𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 =57

8= 7.2 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠

Slack schedule example

• Required schedule slack:

Pessimistic duration – Earnable schedule

7.2 − 5 = 2.2 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠

Scale is manageable

The fleet has sortied The fleet has sortied!

Photo US Navy

Scale is manageable

Vision and strategic direction

Conveyed from the fleet captain

Each boat is a self-directing team,

But learns from the performance of others

Protocols observed

For communication, sequencing, and coordination

Each boat maintains situational awareness

Rolling wave planning

Information relayed to others by boats on the leading

edge of the fleet ( 'over the horizon‘)

Far out lay-lines planned as approached

Adjustments made for obstructions and wind shifts

There’s a lot more to know….

• Jim Highsmith: “Agile Project Management: Creating innovative products”

• Dean Leffingwell: “Agile Software Requirements: Lean requirements practices for Teams, Programs, and the Enterprise”

• Mike Cohn: “Agile Estimating and Planning”

• Lisa Crispin and Janet Gregory: “Agile Testing: A practical guide for Testers and Agile Teams”

Agile for project managers - a sailing analogy-UPDATE

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