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building software to help our clients growSINCE 1985
www.tallan.com
Agile Project Estimating, Planning and Tracking
Andrew Nichols, Certified Scrum Master
7/3/2009Tallan, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright 2009
Andrew.Nichols@tallan.com
7/3/2009Tallan, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright 2009
How to plan an Agile project
Develop product backlog
Estimating backlog
Calculating project duration and budget
Prioritize backlog
Release planning
How to track an Agile project
Agenda
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List for all features desired in system
User Stories
Use Cases
Just list the features any way you want
This is open to change
Not everything will be implemented
Ideas not on the list will be discovered along the way
Develop Product Backlog
Product Backlog
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# Description
1 Story A
2 Story B
3 Story C
4 Story D
5 Story E
6 Story F
7 Story G
8 Story H
9 Story I
10 Story J
11 Story K
Develop Product Backlog
Product Backlog Exercise
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Petbook will be a website which connects pet owners together so that they can network and exchange information about their pets and find other pet owners like them.
Petbook will be a brand new website and should NOT be a replica of Facebook.
It will be developed from scratch and will not use any existing social networking platform.
Petbook
Social network for pet owners
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Estimating Backlog
How long will this
take?
Productivity: Time vs. Quality
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http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/HighNotes.html
Stanley Eisenstat at Yale. CS 323 Programming Assignments Show
10:1 difference in productivity
Measurement of duration
Should be relative
Meaningless without velocity
Difficult to get management away from calendar days
Measurement of effort not duration
Relative not absolute
Meaningless without velocity
Difficult for management to understand
Ideal Days Story Points
Estimating Backlog
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
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16
18
Exponential Series
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0 1 2 3 5 813
20
40
100
Modified Fibonacci Series
Estimating Backlog
Story Points
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Expert Judgment
Analogy
Disaggregation
Planning Poker
Estimation
Methods of Estimation
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1. Everyone has set of cards with points on them
2. Discuss the feature to be estimated
3. Everyone shows card with estimate simultaneously
4. If all cards same then you are done
5. If there is disparity then go to 2
Estimation
Planning Poker
Planning Poker Exercise
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# Description Effort (Story Points)
1 Story A 2
2 Story B 8
3 Story C 8
4 Story D 1
5 Story E 13
6 Story F 5
7 Story G 2
8 Story H 5
9 Story I 1
10 Story J 3
11 Story K 5
Product Backlog
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Points completed per iteration
Best determined imperially
Worst case make an assumption
Iteration Planning
Velocity
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P = Points per story
V = Velocity
Duration and Budget
Estimated Duration
V
PD
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R = Run rate per iteration
Duration and Budget
Estimated Budget
DRB
Calculate Duration and Budget Exercise
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Financial Prioritization
Desirability Prioritization
Not used for Mandatory features
Used to trade off between optional features
Prioritize Backlog
Methods of Prioritization
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Use numbers to assign priority
Higher priority = higher number
No 2 stories have same priority
Prioritization Tips
Prioritization Exercise
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# Description Effort (Story Points) Priority
1 Story A 2 100
2 Story B 8 101
3 Story C 8 90
4 Story D 1 95
5 Story E 13 50
6 Story F 5 35
7 Story G 2 30
8 Story H 5 25
9 Story I 1 20
10 Story J 3 15
11 Story K 5 10
Product Backlog
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Plan 2-3 iterations out
Break stories up vertically if necessary
Set a commitment base goal
Set a stretch goal (base + 20%)
Release Planning
Release Planning
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# Description Effort (Story
Points)
Priority Iteration
1 Story A 2 100 1
2 Story B 8 101 1
3 Story C 8 90 2
4 Story D 1 95 2
5 Story E 13 50 3
6 Story F 5 35
7 Story G 2 30
8 Story H 5 25
9 Story I 1 20 2
10 Story J 3 15
11 Story K 5 10
Product Backlog
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Always meet your commitment
Always deliver a few of the stretch goals
Discuss plan with entire team
Release Planning
Tips
7/3/2009Tallan, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential. Copyright 2009
How to plan an Agile project
How to track an Agile project
Tracking Velocity
Projecting Duration and Budget
Agenda
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Iteration and team level not developer
Completed features not specs or documents
Tracking Progress
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19
21
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25
27
29
31
33
35
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Velocity
Average Velocity
Tracking Velocity
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Projected Duration
Projected Budget
Duration and Budget
A
r
SpV
PDD
PSP DRBB
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...)()()( 2
33
2
22
2
11 awawawAP
Buffering for Risk and Uncertainty
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Estimate average case effort estimate
Estimate worst case effort estimate
(worst – average)2
Total points = Sum of average + square root of sum of squares
Buffering
Buffering for Risk and Uncertainty
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# Description Average Case Worst Case (worst – average)2
1 Story A 2 3 1
2 Story B 8 13 25
3 Story C 8 20 144
4 Story D 1 2 1
5 Story E 13 40 729
6 Story F 5 8 9
7 Story G 2 8 36
8 Story H 5 8 9
9 Story I 1 2 1
10 Story J 3 5 4
11 Story K 5 8 9
53 117 968
Product Backlog
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Average Case = 53
Buffer = 31
Total Points = 53 + 31 = 84
Buffering
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Results in more predictable schedule up front
Identifies high risk stories
Buffering
Benefits
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# of points are meaningless
# of stories are meaningless
What’s important:
Velocity vs. Total Points
Always complete some of the stretch goals
Conclusions