Post on 26-Dec-2015
transcript
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
State of the Economy and 2015 Economic Outlook
Ahmad Ijaz
Center for Business and Economic ResearchServing Alabama Since 1930
Alabama State Black Chamber of Commerce
Entrepreneurs and Innovators ConferenceJune 25, 2015
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2
Overview: U.S. Economic Conditions • U.S. economic growth declined by 0.2 percent in the first quarter,
following a 2.2 percent growth in the fourth quarter, GDP in the second quarter is expected increase by 2.1 percent and around 3.0 percent in the second half.
• Stronger consumer spending, improving housing market and an end to the sharp drop in energy sector capital spending will be major drivers.
• Slowest economic recovery since WWII. Economic growth in the next few quarters will depend on pace of improvement in labor markets and a relatively smooth transfer to a tighter monetary policy. The Fed is expected to start raising interest rate by fourth quarter 2015.
• Median family income has been flat for two years, in 2013 it was 8% below 2007. Weakness in wage gains and falling labor force participation rate will continue to keep consumers cautious about their spending (lowest participation rate since 1978).
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 3
Overview: U.S. Economic Conditions (Cont’d) • Despite improving payrolls, there is still considerable slack in the labor
market, a factor hindering wage growth. Much of the job growth in recent years (30-40 percent) has been in low wage sectors of the economy or in part-time/temporary employment.
• Major drag on economic growth will be from net exports because of a strong dollar and weak growth in much of the rest of the world and lack of federal government spending.
• Facing a lack of wage and income growth, consumers are taking on more debt; household nonmortgage debt increased from $3.1 trillion in 2013 to $3.4 trillion in 2014.
• Sluggish job growth and high level of college related student debt is also resulting in low household formation (only about 0.5 million in late 2013 and early 2014).
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductInflation Adjusted Chained 2009 Dollars
(Quarter to Quarter Percent Change)
4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and IHS Global Insight.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 5
U.S. Nonfarm EmploymentManufacturing, Construction,
Leisure and Hospitality, and Financial Activity
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
ManufacturingConstruction Leisure & HospitalityFinancial Activity
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHS Global Insight.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Consumer Sentiment Index
6
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014
20152016
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Source: University of Michigan and IHS Global Insight.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 7
Government SpendingInflation Adjusted Chained 2009 Dollars
(Annual Percent Change)
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014
20152016
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IHS Global Insight.
State and Local
Federal
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
U.S. Economic Outlook(Percent change unless otherwise noted) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Real GDP 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.1 3.1
Consumption 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.9
Residential Investment 13.5 11.9 1.6 8.3 12.9
Commercial, Healthcare Structures 8.5 3.4 7.7 9.9 13.8
Nonresidential Fixed Investment 7.2 3.0 6.3 3.4 6.6
Federal Government -1.8 -5.7 -1.9 0.5 0.2
State & Local Government -1.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.1
Exports 3.3 3.0 3.2 1.6 4.9
Imports 2.3 1.1 4.0 5.5 6.4
Payroll Employment 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.5
Unemployment Rate 8.1 7.4 6.2 5.4 5.1
CPI Inflation 2.1 1.5 1.6 0.0 1.8
Light Vehicle Sales (Millions) 14.43 15.52 16.40 16.99 17.31
4
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 9
Shares of nonfarm employment (2013) andAlabama Gross Domestic Product (2013) by industry
1 20%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
17.7713.09
6.9111.81
9.18 11.49
7.4011.652.86
9.4316.80
19.85
39.08
22.69
All Other
Government
Leisure and Hospital-ity
Education and Healthcare Service
Professional and Business Services
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Share of Alabama GDP Share of Alabama Non-farm Employment
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 10
Monthly Employment Indicators (May 2015)
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Seasonally Adjusted
Civilian Labor Force 2,176,934 2,170,900 Percent Change from Year Ago Level 1.1% 1.5% Absolute Change from Year Ago Level 24,702 31,152
Employed 2,042,837 2,038,731 Percent Change from Year Ago Level 1.6% 2.4% Absolute Change from Year Ago Level 33,022 47,488
Unemployed 134,097 132,169 Percent Change from Year Ago Level -5.8% -11.0% Absolute Change from Year Ago Level -8,320 -16,336
Alabama Unemployment Rate 6.2% 6.1%Alabama Unemployment Rate (May 2014) 6.6% 6.9%U.S. Unemployment Rate 5.3% 5.5%U.S. Unemployment Rate (May 2014) 6.1% 6.3%
Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 11
Alabama Jobs Scorecard
Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.
January 2011
May 2015 Change
Total Nonagricultural 1,839,400 1,958,100 118,700 Natural Resources and Mining 12,100 10,900 -1,200 Construction 77,200 81,600 4,400 Manufacturing 233,200 252,700 19,500 Durable Goods Manufacturing 143,500 166,700 23,200 Nondurable Goods Manufacturing 89,700 86,000 -3,700 Trade, Transportation and Utilities 358,800 375,800 17,000 Wholesale Trade 70,900 70,800 -100 Retail Trade 221,500 230,400 8,900 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 66,400 74,600 8,200 Information 23,500 22,900 -600 Financial Activities 91,100 96,300 5,200 Professional and Business Services 208,200 229,700 21,500 Educational and Health Services 213,200 229,600 16,400 Leisure and Hospitality 159,500 194,200 34,700 Other Services 78,400 81,100 2,700 Government 384,200 383,300 -900 Federal Government 57,200 53,400 -3,800 State Government 110,400 110,900 500 Local Government 216,600 219,000 2,400
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 12
Alabama Nonagricultural EmploymentChange in Number of Jobs
Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.
May 2013 to May 2014
May 2014 to May 2015
Total Nonagricultural 15,100 30,500 Natural Resources and Mining -500 -800 Construction 0 1,700 Manufacturing 3,600 300 Durable Goods Manufacturing 5,000 2,300 Nondurable Goods Manufacturing -1,400 -2,000 Trade, Transportation and Utilities 4,000 4,600 Wholesale Trade 0 -2,300 Retail Trade 2,800 4,300 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities 1,200 2,600 Information -700 800 Financial Activities 1,200 1,100 Professional and Business Services 3,100 7,000 Educational and Health Services 500 6,200 Leisure and Hospitality 4,500 6,300 Other Services 600 500 Government -1,200 2,800 Federal Government -1,100 0 State Government -300 2,300 Local Government 200 500
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 13
• 4th in U.S. in vehicle exports
• 4 OEMs in the state (Original Equipment Manufacturers)
• 5th in U.S. in vehicles manufactured
• Alabama’s three assembly plants produced 997,270 vehicles in 2014 and the number is expected to climb in the coming years
• $6.5 billion in vehicles shipped to 99 countries in 2013
• Since 2011, Alabama has attracted more than 200 auto-related projects involving $4 billion in investment and 17,000 new jobs
Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama (EDPA) and Alabama Department of Commerce.
Manufacturing – Automotive Industry
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 14
U.S. Alabama$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000 $4,997
$3,991
$817
$1,731
$631 $517$236 $301
$121 $286
All Merchandise
Transportation Equipment
Chemicals
Primary Metal Manufacturing
Minerals and Ores
Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau.
2013 Exports Per Capita
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Bioscience Industry Employment in Alabama, 2012
15
Drugs & pharmaceu-ticals, 10% (1,284)
Ag. feedstock & chemicals, 13%
(1,651)
Med. devices & equip., 13%
(1,662)
Research, testing & med. labs, 30% (3,844)
Bioscience-re-lated distribu-
tion, 34% (4,353)
Note: Number of employees in parenthesis.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data from Batelle/BIO report.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Alabama Average Annual Wage, 2012
16
All private sector industries
Bioscience industries average
Research, test. & med. labs
Medical devices & equip.
Bioscience-related distr.
Ag. feedstock & chemicals
Drugs & pharmaceuticals
$0 $40,000 $80,000
$41,074
$65,727
$46,939
$55,958
$66,255
$72,338
$73,583
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data from Batelle/BIO report.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 17
Total Annual Nonfarm Employmentand Unemployment Rate
Employment (Thousands), Unemployment Rate (Percent), 1990-2015
Source: Alabama Department of Labor.
Non
farm
Em
ploy
men
t
Une
mpl
oym
ent
Rat
e
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
EmploymentUnemployment Rate
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 18
Change in Alabama Employment From the Beginning of the Recession
Number of months
90
92
94
96
98
100
10219801981199020012007
Source: Estimates based on Alabama Department of Labor data.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 19
Labor Force Participation Rate (Annual)
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
55
57
59
61
63
65
67
69
United States
Alabama
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 20
Labor Force Participation Rate(Monthly)
Jan-
76Ja
n-78
Jan-
80Ja
n-82
Jan-
84Ja
n-86
Jan-
88Ja
n-90
Jan-
92Ja
n-94
Jan-
96Ja
n-98
Jan-
00Ja
n-02
Jan-
04Ja
n-06
Jan-
08Ja
n-10
Jan-
12Ja
n-14
55
57
59
61
63
65
67
69United States
Alabama
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 21
Tax Revenues (FY2015, Year-to-Date May 2015)
Percent Change
From Year Ago
Change in Revenue
from Year Ago LevelTax Total Collection
Total $6,706,712,911 4.5% $290,441,062
Income (Individual) $2,729,780,193 5.4% $139,529,597
Sales $1,414,411,305 3.7% $51,048,960
Source: Alabama Department of Revenue.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 22
This Alabama GDP and employment forecast summary is the CBER June 2015 forecast
Preliminary 2016 forecast also included below
Alabama Forecast Summary
Probability: Forecast (60 Percent) and Range (90 percent)
(Percent change) 2013 2014 2015 2016
Real GDP 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.5
range 1.5 to 3.0 2.0 to 3.0
Employment 1.0 0.7 1.4 1.5
range 0.5 to 2.0 0.8 to 1.5
Total Tax Receipts, FY 4.0 1.3 4.0 3.5
range 2.5 to 4.8 1.5 to 4.0
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 23
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
2016-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6Annual Percent Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Alabama Department of Labor, and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.
AlabamaGDP
NonfarmEmployment
Alabama GDP and Nonfarm Employment
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 24
ABCITM
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q20
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
47.752.9 51.9 51.2
55.6 55.5 54.257.4 57.6
2013 2014 2015
Inde
x
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 25
U.S. and Alabama EconomiesExpectations versus Prior Quarter
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q235
40
45
50
55
60
Alabama
UnitedStates
58.4
56.5
2012 2013 2014 2015
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 26
Sales and ProfitsExpectations versus Prior Quarter
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q240
45
50
55
60
65
Sales
Profits
61.5
56.8
2012 2013 2014 2015
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 27
Hiring and Capital ExpendituresExpectations versus Prior Quarter
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q242
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
2012 2013 2014 2015
Hiring
Capital Expenditures
57.1
55.4
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 28
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ABCITM History68.7
31.5
57.6
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 29
Alabama GDP and employment by metro areas, 2013
Source: Alabama Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau for Economic Analysis.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1.99 2.432.20 3.03
31.12 26.65
2.662.85
2.452.98
2.262.91
1.411.92
11.45 11.22
8.85 9.09
8.14 8.84
5.16 5.07
22.31 23.02Non-Metro Areas
Tuscaloosa
Montgomery
Mobile
Huntsville
Gadsden
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Dothan
Decatur
Birmingham-Hoover
Auburn-Opelika
Anniston-Oxford-Jacksonville
GDP Employment
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 30
Unemployment Rate
Source: Alabama Department of Labor.
United States
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford
Auburn-Opelika
Birmingham-Hoover
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley
Decatur
Dothan
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Gadsden
Huntsville
Mobile
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
6.1
6.6
7.9
5.3
5.8
5.6
6.8
6.6
7.1
7
6
7.5
6.4
6.3
5.3
6.2
7.1
5.1
5.5
5.3
6.2
6.3
7.6
6.1
5.5
7
6
5.9
May-15 May-14
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 31
Median Family Income FY2014United States
AlabamaAnniston-OxfordAuburn-Opelika
Birmingham-HooverDaphne-Fairhope-Foley
DecaturDothan
Florence-Muscle ShoalsGadsden
HuntsvilleMobile
MontgomeryTuscaloosa
$63,900$54,100
$51,600$59,700$61,000
$68,800$53,500
$51,700$52,100
$46,900$69,700
$53,900$59,600
$54,400
Note: Chilton and Walker counties are not included in the estimate for the Birmingham- Hoover metro, Henry County is not included in the Dothan, and Pickens County in the Tuscaloosa metro estimate. Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Economic Affairs, Economic and Market Analysis Division.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 32
Educational Attainment 2013United States
AlabamaAnniston-OxfordAuburn-Opelika
Birmingham-HooverDaphne-Fairhope-Foley
DecaturDothan
Florence-Muscle ShoalsGadsden
HuntsvilleMobile
MontgomeryTuscaloosa
86.684.5
80.389.5
87.090.6
80.884.183.4
81.988.8
85.885.786.7
29.6 23.5
15.0 37.9
28.6 29.0
18.9 18.3
17.0 16.2
36.5 22.3
25.9 24.7
Bachelor's degree or higher, Percent High school or higher, Percent
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey 1-year estimates.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 33
Metropolitan Areas, Exports in 2013Total Merchandise
Metro Area ExportsAlabama $19.3 billionAnniston-Oxford $192.7 millionAuburn-Opelika $395.4 millionBirmingham-Hoover $1.9 billionDaphne-Fairhope-Foley $515.3 millionDecatur $673.1 millionDothan $374.7 millionFlorence-Muscle Shoals $229.7 millionGadsden $54.6 millionHuntsville $1.5 billionMobile $1.5 billionMontgomery $1.7 billionTuscaloosa NA
Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 34
Metro Percent of State Exports2013 2012
Alabama 100.0 100.0Anniston-Oxford 1.1 1.2Auburn-Opelika 2.4 2.6Birmingham-Hoover 11.1 11.4Daphne-Fairhope-Foley 3.1 NADecatur 4.0 3.8Dothan 2.2 1.6Florence-Muscle Shoals 1.4 0.8Gadsden 0.3 0.2Huntsville 9.0 8.8Mobile 9.2 11.2Montgomery 9.9 10.4Tuscaloosa NA NA
Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 35
Population gains varied widely since 20107/1/2010 to 7/1/2013
Number Percent7/1/2013 Change Change
Alabama 4,833,722 48,152 1.0Anniston-Oxford 116,736 -1,712 -1.4Auburn-Opelika 150,933 10,083 7.2Birmingham-Hoover 1,140,300 11,204 1.0Daphne-Fairhope-Foley 195,540 12,317 6.7Decatur 153,374 -488 -0.3Dothan 147,691 1,815 1.2Florence-Muscle Shoals 147,317 88 0.1Gadsden 103,931 -567 -0.5Huntsville 435,737 16,306 3.9Mobile 414,079 789 0.2Montgomery 373,510 -1,698 -0.5Tuscaloosa 235,628 5,154 2.2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 36
Three metros past 2007/2008 annual peak in May 2015
* Gadsden, Huntsville and Mobile employment peaked in 2008; all others saw peaks in 2007.Note: Nonfarm employment (jobs) is by place of work.Source: Alabama Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2007 or 2008 Job Loss (Gain)Nonfarm Employment Peak Year Number PercentAlabama 2,005,700 47,600 2.4%Anniston-Oxford 53,400 7,000 13.1%Auburn-Opelika 54,800 -5,900 -10.8%Birmingham-Hoover 533,400 11,400 2.1%Decatur 58,600 4,600 7.9%Dothan 63,100 6,100 9.7%Florence-Muscle Shoals 57,300 1,700 3.0%Gadsden* 38,000 300 0.8%Huntsville* 214,300 -6,000 -2.8%Mobile* 184,600 5,900 3.2%Montgomery 178,000 6,900 3.9%Tuscaloosa 98,500 -5,600 -5.7%Net Jobs in Metropolitan Areas 26,400Net Jobs in Nonmetro Counties 21,200
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
ABCI by Metro AreaQ2 2015 compared to Q1 2015
49
Montgomery
Mobile
Huntsville
Birmingham-Hoover
Alabama
52.0 53.0 54.0 55.0 56.0 57.0 58.0 59.0 60.0
59.4
58.2
54.9
58.1
57.4
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 38
GDP and Nonfarm Employment Forecasts, 2015Nonfarm Employment Real GDPForecast, Percent Forecast, Percent
Anniston-Oxford 0.3 1.3Auburn-Opelika 2.5 3.7Birmingham-Hoover 1.0 1.5Daphne-Fairhope-Foley 1.2 3.0Decatur 0.4 1.0Dothan 1.4 1.8Florence-Muscle Shoals 1.0 3.5Gadsden 1.1 1.4Huntsville 2.0 3.8Mobile 1.2 3.2Montgomery 0.9 1.4Tuscaloosa 2.2 3.8
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Alabama Department of Labor, and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama, December 2014.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Labor force participation (2012): Alabama 57.3% United States 63.7%
Educational Attainment (Age 25 and over population)
2008-2012 (2012) Alabama United States
High school graduates 82.6% (84.0%) 85.7% (86.4%)
Bachelor’s or higher degree 22.3% (23.3%) 28.5% (29.1%)
Population Growth Alabama United States
1990-2000 10.1% 13.2%
2000-2010 7.5% 9.7%
2010-2013 1.1% 2.4%
Alabama has lower labor force participation, population growth, and
educational attainment than the nation
48
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 40
Top issues that Alabama is facing:
1 Education/Training (Quality of education; workforce development)
2 Government (Federal, state & local government; tax reform; prison reform; state constitution)
3/4 Economy/Businesses (Economic & business growth; small businesses)
3/4 Jobs (Job growth; better paying jobs)
5 Healthcare (Healthcare cost; Affordable Healthcare Act; Medicaid, Medicare)
6 Infrastructure (Infrastructure; roads and bridges)
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists’ Poll, Nov. 2014.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 41
Top issues that companies in Alabama are facing:
1 Company Finances & Development
(Profitability; business costs; availability of credit; business growth; competition; concern about customers)
2 Government (Federal, state & local government; taxation; regulations; uncertainty)
3 Workforce (Lack of skilled workers; retaining qualified employees)
4 Economy (Economic recovery & growth; consumer spending)
5 Healthcare (Healthcare cost; Affordable Healthcare Act)
Note: No issues companies are facing was currently mentioned by 1.0% of respondents.Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists’ Poll, Nov. 2014.
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
State Rank of Alabama Per Capita Income1930 441940 45
1950 47
1960 46
1970 47
1980 46
1990 40
2000 43
2009 412010 412011 412012 412013 42
Source: Estimates based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
44
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 43
Alabama Per Capita Income Share of U.S. Per Capita Income
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
30
40
50
60
70
80
90(Percent)
1929: U.S. $697 Alabama $318
2013: U.S. $44,543Alabama $36,501
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 44
Alabama Per Capita Income Share of U.S. Per Capita Income
1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
(Percent)
1929: U.S. $697 Alabama $318
2013: U.S. $44,543Alabama $36,501
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Understanding the economy and economic development
Economy = People + Institutions + Property = Private & Public Sectors
Economic Development = Higher or better quality of life
Human Capital Development = Improved education and healthcare
Institutional Development = Better government, companies, culture
Physical Capital Development = Better infrastructure and environment
There is no economic development without education (a public good)
*** Informal education is also important
Pre-Kindergarten to High School (Pure Public Good)
Universities (Largely Public Good)
Vocational and Community Colleges (Mostly Public Good)
Development Policies must be Optimal = Efficient, Fair, Flexible, Sustainable
47
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 46
Thank you
Center for Business and Economic ResearchCulverhouse College of Commerce
The University of AlabamaBox 870221
Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487-0221205.348.6191
http://cber.cba.ua.edu
Serving Alabama Since 1930
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 47
ABCITM
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q20
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
47.752.9 51.9 51.2
55.6 55.5 54.257.4 57.6
2013 2014 2015
Inde
x
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 48
Business Environment ExpectationsQ2 2015 compared to Q1 2015
Much Worse
Somewhat Worse
Remain the Same
Somewhat Better
Much Better
1.3
17.0
39.7
38.4
3.6
0.4
11.2
45.1
41.1
2.2 Alabama National
National and Alabama Economic Outlook
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 49
Business Environment ExpectationsQ2 2015 compared to Q1 2015
Sales
Strong DecreaseModerate Decrease
No ChangeModerate Increase
Strong Increase
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
0.912.9
30.450.9
4.9
Strong Decrease
Moderate Decrease
No Change
Moderate Increase
Strong Increase
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
1.3
19.6
34.4
39.7
4.9
Profits
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 50
Business Environment ExpectationsQ2 2015 compared to Q1 2015
Hiring Plans
Capital Expenditures
Strong Decrease
Moderate Decrease
No Change
Moderate Increase
Strong Increase
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
0.011.2
52.233.5
3.1
Strong DecreaseModerate Decrease
No ChangeModerate Increase
Strong Increase
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
1.311.2
55.429.0
3.1
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 51
ABCITM History
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
68.7
31.5
57.6
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 52
U.S. and Alabama EconomiesExpectations versus Prior Quarter
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q235
40
45
50
55
60
Alabama
UnitedStates
58.4
56.5
2012 2013 2014 2015
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 53
Sales and ProfitsExpectations versus Prior Quarter
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q240
45
50
55
60
65
Sales
Profits
61.5
56.8
2012 2013 2014 2015
2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 54
Hiring and Capital ExpendituresExpectations versus Prior Quarter
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q242
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
Hiring
Capital Expenditures
57.155.4
2012 2013 2014 2015