Post on 19-Dec-2015
transcript
Alan F. HamletAndy Wood
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group
and Department of Civil and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of Washington
October, 2006
2006 Water Resources Outlook for the Columbia River Basin
http://www.hydro.washington.edu/Lettenmaier/Presentations/2004/hamlet_2006_forecast_oct_2005.ppt
Recap of Water Year 2005
Observed Nino3.4 anomally
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
NINO3.4 Index Anomaly
Ap
ril-
Se
pte
mb
er
Av
era
ge
S
tre
am
flo
w
1916-2002
Historic Water Years vs January Nino 3.4 Anomalies
Red = Unconditional meanBlue = Ensemble meanBlack = 2005 Observed
Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The DallesJanuary Nino3.4 index between 0.2 and 1.2
Nat
ural
Str
eam
flow
(cf
s)
Red = Unconditional meanBlue = Ensemble meanBlack = 2005 Observed
Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The DallesJanuary Nino3.4 index between 0.2 and 1.2 and warm PDO (epochs)
Nat
ural
Str
eam
flow
(cf
s)
Red = Unconditional meanBlue = Ensemble meanBlack = 2005 Observed
Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The DallesNino3.4 index between 0.2 and 1.2 and warm PDO (interannual)
Nat
ural
Str
eam
flow
(cf
s)
ColSimReservoir
Model
VICHydrology Model
Climate Forecast
Linkage to Reservoir Models
StreamflowForecast Bias Correction
Reservoir Model
Observed Reservoir Contents
StorageEnsemble
Demand Scenarios
All Years from 1950-2003 for which J. Nino3.4 Anom. >= 0.2 AND <=1.2
Obs. SystemStorage Oct 1, 2005
October 1 Spin UpSystem Storage Forecast from SnakeSim:
Jackson LakePalisadesIsland ParkRirieAmerican FallsLake Walcott
Nino3.4 anomaly between 0.2 and 1.2 C
Demand aligned with water cond.
Act
ive
Res
ervo
ir S
tora
ge (
kaf)
Obs. SystemStorage Oct 1, 2005
Outlook for Water Year 2006
December
Winter ClimateForecasts Dominate
Hydrologic State Variables Dominate
June March
April 1 SWE (mm)
Used range: Jan3.4 >= -0.4Jan3.4 <= 0.6
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
NINO3.4 Index Anomaly
Ap
ril-
Se
pte
mb
er
Av
era
ge
S
tre
am
flo
w
1916-2002
Historic Water Years vs January Nino 3.4 AnomaliesRed lines show approximate range for 2006 forecast
Red = Unconditional meanBlue = Ensemble mean
Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The DallesJanuary Nino3.4 index between -0.4 and 0.6
Nat
ural
Str
eam
flow
(cf
s)
Red = Unconditional meanBlue = Ensemble mean
Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The DallesJanuary Nino3.4 index between -0.4 and 0.6 AND PDO neutral
Nat
ural
Str
eam
flow
(cf
s)
Used range: Jan3.4 >= 0.0Jan3.4 <= 0.6
Red = Unconditional meanBlue = Ensemble mean
Bias Corrected Long Range Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River at The DallesJanuary Nino3.4 index between 0.0 and 0.6
Nat
ural
Str
eam
flow
(cf
s)
ColSim Reservoir System Storage ForecastAll Years from 1916-2003 for which J. Nino3.4 Anom. >= -0.4 AND <= 0.6
Overview of Experimental Energy-Related Forecasting Products
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
191719221927193219371942194719521957196219671972197719821987199219972002
PNW*
CA*
Covariation of Normalized PNW and CA Hydropower Production
California and PNW hydropower resources show a strong covariance in the second half of the 20th century.
R2 =0.541
Probability of Exceedance for Spring Surplus Energy Resources in the PNW
Voisin, N., A. F. Hamlet, L. P. Graham, D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005: The role of climate forecasts in western U.S. power planning, Journal of Applied Meteorology (in press).
Sys
tem
-Wid
e E
nerg
y P
rodu
ctio
n (M
MW
-hr/
mon
th)
Forecast of System-Wide Energy Production from the Colsim Reservoir ModelAll Years from 1916-2003 for which J. Nino3.4 Anom. >= -0.4 AND <= 0.6Energy targets in each year of the simulation are for WY 2000
Selected References on Compositing Techniques:
Hamlet, A.F., Lettenmaier, D.P., 1999: Columbia River Streamflow Forecasting Based on ENSO and PDO Climate Signals, ASCE J. of Water Res. Planning and Mgmt., 125 (6) : 333-341
Werner K, Brandon D, Clark M, et al., 2004: Climate index weighting schemes for NWS ESP-based seasonal volume forecasts, J. of Hydrometeorology, 5 (6): 1076-1090