AMPS and ECMWF - experience in season 2007/2008 -

transcript

10 to 12th June 2008 AMOMFW 2008/Ralf Brauner(AWI/DWD) 1

AMPS and ECMWF

- experience in season 2007/2008 -

AMPS and ECMWF

- experience in season 2007/2008 -

• DROMLAN weather forecast service started in season 2002/2003

• with one man on the job from 05.00 to 22.00 or on request

• around 3500 forecasts every season

• since 2003/2004 three meteorologists from DWD are working for this service

Status DROMLAN weather forecast service

Brian, Arne, James

Chris, Brian, Ralf

...season 2007/2008.....

extended season from 25th of Oct 2007 - 16th March 2008 due to the new construction of NEUMAYER III

done by Hajo (1) and Ralf (2) in three periods

more than 3500 forecasts were distributed (1200 in 2003/03!)

5 medevac flights, unfortunately one helicopter crash at Neumayer Station

no boomerang flights fr

om Cape Town to Antarctica in the past seasons!

flights done by Basler BT67 „Polar5“

Experience with AMPS and ECMWFExperience with AMPS and ECMWF

during the season both models work very accurateAMPS has still an advantage in forecasts for surface windsEPS meteograms of ECMWF are used as the main technique for forecast up to 4 or 7 days the web access is a great advantage for AMPShumidity in AMPS (low stratus) is sometimes higher as observed

humidity in AMPS (low stratus)

12th Feb. 2008:Clear sky over Halley, but low stratus over the sea

A lot of humidity in the lower layersin the AMPS meteogram

No clouds in the ECMWF meteogram

Medevac on the 5th of March 2008

Medevac of 3 injured people from Neumayer to Cape Town

Problem: 1. Flight of Basler BT 67 „Lidia“ from Novo to Neumayer2. Weather conditions at Neumayer: overcast 300 feet, mod. snow, vis

below 300 meters, contrast and horizon poor to nil

Exact forecast for improving conditions by AMPS and ECMWF!!!

.....new in season 2007/2008?

flight following done by Skyrouter system!

repos. flight with DROMLAN forecaster of Basler BT67 Mia and Lidia back to Punta Arenas

due to the extended season the forecast service of BAS was no more available at the Rothera

forecaster was able to support the Basler BT67 crews on the flights back to Punta

..........for season 2008/2009

• educating new staff for the job down in Antarctica

• new station Neumayer III with our first own Met-Office

• new project on Arctic regions in March/April 2009

Neumayer III.....operating from March 2009!

Polar5 operating in the Arctic in March/April 2009

Thank you!

AMPS and ECMWF - experience in season 2007/2008 -

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