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transcript
An Update on Economic and
Workforce Trends in MT
Chris BradleyEconomist
June 16, 2017Helena, MT
Agenda
• Montana’s Recent economic performance
• Demographics contributing to a worker shortage
• Dealing with a worker shortage
• Growth Projections
Montana & U.S. Personal Income Growth
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
U.S.Montana
GDP Growth Tapering
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
7.3%
2.8%
2.1%
2.8%
1.8%
0.3%
3.7%4.1%
3.3%
4.2%3.7%
3.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MontanaU.S.
Employment and Wage Growth by Quarter
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, BLS and MT DLI
6th Fastest Wage Growth over 5 Years
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, BLS and MT DLI
Industry Employment Change, 2016
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, BLS and MT DLI
-16% -11% -6% -1% 4%
Mining, Oil and GasAdmin & Waste Services
InformationFederal Government
State & Local GovManagement
Financial ActivitiesTransportation & Utilities
TradeOther Services (except Public Administration)
Health Care and EducationProfessional Services
Leisure ActivitiesManufacturing
ConstructionAg & Forestry
5-Year Growth
1-Year Growth
Transportation Sub-Industry Employment Performance, 2016
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150
Pipeline Transportation
Air Transportation
Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation
Transit and Ground Passenger Transport
Support Activities for Transportation
Couriers and Messengers
Truck Transportation
1-Year Job Change5-Year Average Job
Change per Year
Average Annual Wage by Industry 2016
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000
Accommodation and Food ServicesLeisure Activities
Arts, Entertainment, and RecreationOther Services (except Public Administration)
Admin & Waste ServicesTrade
Ag & ForestryState & Local Gov
Health Care and EducationManufacturing
ConstructionInformation
Transportation & UtilitiesFinancial Activities
Professional ServicesFederal Government
ManagementMining, Oil and Gas
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mill
ions
$
MININGConstruction
Other Leisure ActivitiesTransportationFinancial ActivitiesAgriculture
Business Services
Government
Total Wages Paid by Industry
ManufacturingTrade
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Forecasted Jobs
Unemployment since 1980
Source: CPS, BLS, and LAUS, BLS and MT DLI
Montana’s Population by Age and Gender, 2014
Under 5 5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44
45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64
65 to 69 70 to 74
75 to 79 80 to 84 85 and over
(42,000) (32,000) (22,000) (12,000) (2,000) 8,000 18,000 28,000 38,000
MALE FEMALEOver 65 = Retired
Under 15 = ChildrenMontana’s Population by Age and Sex, 2014
Male and Female U.S. Census Bureau
Montana’s Population by Age and Gender, 2019
Under 5 5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44
45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64
65 to 69 70 to 74
75 to 79 80 to 84 85 and over
(42,000) (32,000) (22,000) (12,000) (2,000) 8,000 18,000 28,000 38,000
Source: 2014 Population Estimates by Age and Gender, U.S. Census Bureau
MALE FEMALEOver 65 = Retired
Under 15 = Children
Montana’s Population by Age and Gender, 2024
Under 5 5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44
45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64
65 to 69 70 to 74
75 to 79 80 to 84 85 and over
(42,000) (32,000) (22,000) (12,000) (2,000) 8,000 18,000 28,000 38,000
Source: 2014 Population Estimates by Age and Gender, U.S. Census Bureau
MALE FEMALE
Over 65 = Retired
Under 15 = Children
Forecasted Labor Market Tightness
Source: MT DLI Labor Force and Employment Forecasts
Forecasted Labor Market Tightness
Source: MT DLI Labor Force and Employment Forecasts
Assumes Increased Labor Force
Participation among 25-70 Year Olds
Forecasted Labor Market Tightness
Source: MT DLI Labor Force and Employment Forecasts
Labor Force: +4,500Jobs: +5,500
Net Unemployment: -1,000
Solutions to a Worker Shortage
1. Recruit more people into Montana.– Other states also have aging populations.– Wages are higher in other states.
2. Recruit more workers into the labor force.
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Total Women American Indian Veteran (18 andOver)
Disabled Less than HighSchool
Labor Force Participation Rates by Select Demographics
Source: Current Population Survey and 2011-2013 American Community Survey
Montana Labor Force Participation Rate by Education Level
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Less than High School High School Graduate Some College orAssociate's
Bachelor's or Higher
Solutions to a Worker Shortage
3. More full-time employment.– 7th highest percent of part time work in the nation.– Shortest work week in the nation.
76%
57%
7%
14%
17%
19%
Male
Female
Part-time Employment by Gender
Full-time, Year-roundPart-time, year-round
Part-year, Part-time
Solutions to a Worker Shortage
4. Reduce time out of labor force for retraining.– More on-the-job training like internships and apprenticeships.– More business-paid training for specific skills.
5. Improve labor productivity to produce more with fewer workers.
– Technology improvements– Better job matching– More training for professionals
Hires are Increasingly Job-to-Job
Hires from Job-to-Job
Hires from Unemployment
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Montana Commuting Distances Are Increasing
57%
12%7%
23%
12% 12%7%
70%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Less than 10 miles 10 to 24 miles 25 to 50 miles Greater than 50 miles
Shar
e
Existing JobsJob Growth Since 2009
Top 10 Transportation Jobs for Annual Openings
Total Openings
Jobs Due to Growth
1 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 206.6 78.2
2 Laborers and Freight, and Material Movers, Hand 200.2 51.6
3 Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 118.1 24.2
4 Light Truck or Delivery Services Drivers 82.2 29.4
5 Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment 62.2 18.2
6 Billing and Posting Clerks 56.9 24.5
7 Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists 51.5 27.6
8 Bus Drivers, School or Special Client 43.7 19.1
9 Tire Repairers and Changers 37.7 8.7
10 Packers and Packagers, Hand 36.6 12
Orange Occupations require Post-secondary Credential
Apprentice
Apprentice
Apprentice
Apprentice
Top 10 Transportation Jobs for Growth
Total Openings
Jobs Due to Growth
1 Gas Compressor and Gas Pumping Station Operators 7 2.8%
2 Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists 51.5 1.8%
3 Commercial Pilots 15.6 1.7%
4 Electrical and Electronics Installers and Repairers
5 Ambulance Drivers 2.8 1.6%
6 Wellhead Pumpers 16.3 1.5%
7 Billing and Posting Clerks 56.9 1.5%
8 Cargo and Freight Agents 15.6 1.4%
9 Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment 62.2 1.4%
10 Bicycle Repairers
Orange Occupations require Post-secondary Credential
ApprenticeApprenticeApprentice
Apprentice
Apprentice
Apprentice
Engineering Occupations Projections
EngineersDrafters, Engineering
Technicians, and Mapping Technicians
Total Annual Openings Growth Rate Total Annual
Openings Growth Rate
Montana 165 1.4% 51 0.7%
Region 1 36 1.7% 15 1.0%
Region 2 71 1.6% 12 0.6%
Region 3 9 0.1% 3 -0.4%
Region 4 46 1.6% 15 1.1%
Region 5 15 2.3% - -
Selected Detailed Engineering Occupations Projections
Occupation Total Annual Openings
Growth Rate
EngineersCivil Engineers 58 1.10%Environmental Engineers 16 2.79%Mechanical Engineers 22 2.12%Engineers, All Other 5 0.66%
Engineering TechniciansArchitectural and Civil Drafters 9 0.66%Drafters, All Other 2 0.32%Civil Engineering Technicians 12 1.21%Environmental Engineering Technicians 4 2.33%Engineering Technicians, All Other 4 0.00%Surveying and Mapping Technicians 4 -0.10%
Common Highway Construction Industry Jobs
Occupation Projected Openings
Avg. Annual Wage
Construction Laborers 214 $37,570
Carpenters 188 $40,360
Supervisors of Construction and Extraction Workers 106 $62,790
Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment 103 $48,810
Construction Managers 31 $87,170
Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except Engines 30 $51,780
Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators 10 $44,800
Crossing Guards 5 $30,590