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POWER RELATIONS, CONFLICT AND COOPERATION IN THE NILE BASIN
Ana CascãoKing’s College of London/CEAUP
WATER IN AFRICA:Hydro-Pessimism or Hydro-Optimism?
NILE – HYDROLOGY AND POLITICS
NILE RIVER BASIN
• 1 River• 2 sub-Basins• 10 riparians• Unequal contribution• Unequal utilisation
Disparity of numbers
Main provider
Main user
NILE - WATER RESOURCES AVAILABILITY
1.8
58.3
30
64.5
122 122
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
km3/
year
Egypt Sudan Ethiopia
Internal Renewable Water Resources
Actual Renewable Water Resources
NON-NILE
NILE - WATER RESOURCES AVAILABILITY AND UTILISATION
1.8
58.3
68.3
55.5
30
64.5
37.3
14
122 122
5.550.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
km3/
year
Egypt Sudan Ethiopia
Internal Renewable Water Resources
Actual Renewable Water Resources
Total water withdrawal
Total withdrawal from the Nile
DEPENDENCY AND CONTROL
97%76.9%
0%
Egypt Sudan Ethiopia
DEPENDENCY on external water resources (%)
169
8.7 3.5
-
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
Egypt Sudan Ethiopia
TECHNICAL CONTROL - Total storage capacity (km3) LEGAL CONTROL - Allocations of the 1959 Agreement (km3)
Ethiopia0
Egypt55.5
Evapotranspiration
10
Sudan18.5
INEQUALITIES = CONFLICT?
Control
Allocation
Contribution
Utilisation
CONFLICT OF INTERESTS
Historical and acquired rights
Potential needs and uses
“New water”
Storage infrastructuresHydropower
Irrigation
Extreme dependence
Water for development
CONFLICT OF LANGUAGES
POWER RELATIONS MATTER!
EGYPT SUDAN ETHIOPIA
Geography
Geography
GeographyMaterial
power
Material power
Material power
Bargaining power
Bargaining power
Bargaining power
Ideationalpower
Ideationalpower
Ideationalpower
Two Hydropolitical Dynamics:
Hegemony &
Counter-Hegemony
(Adapted from Zeitoun, 2005)
GEOPOLITICS ARE CHANGING!
USA
CHINA
EUROPE
SUDAN
ETHIOPIA
EGYPT
World Bank
COOPERATION = EQUITY?
Equitable utilisation Development
Benefits
Nile Basin
Initiative
CURRENT COOPERATION IN THE NILE BASIN
NILE BASIN INITIATIVE
• Since 1999• Multilateral cooperation• Goal: Project-by-project• “Benefit-sharing”• Godfather: World Bank• Economic integration
COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT
• Since 1997• Goal: New Nile Treaty• Equitable Utilisation + No harm• “Water-sharing”• Constructed Ambiguity• Nile Basin Commission =
Funding
Thanks for your attention!