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ANALYST MEETING 3Q2012
www.bangchak.co.th
November 7, 2012
Agenda
Oil Market Situation
3Q2012 Highlights
3Q2012 Financial Performance
What’s next in 4Q2012 and 2013
2 www.bangchak.co.th
1Q12 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q13 2Q 3Q 4Q 75
85
95
105
115
125
135
WTI
Brent
DB
$/bbl
Global Oil Market: Price Outlook
www.bangchak.co.th 3
Forecasted DUBAI Price:
Factors to watch…in 4Q12 and 2013
U.S. Fiscal cliff EU crisis Iran nuclear ME tension
o Global economic slowdown
o EU debt crisis (Spain, Greece)
o Additional supply from Non-OPEC
o U.S fiscal cliff?/ SPR release ?
o Tension in Middle East
o High Demand in winter
4Q2012 ≈ 103-107$/bbl Y2013 ≈ 106$/bbl
www.bangchak.co.th 4
Asian Oil Market: Cracks Movement
$/bbl
-15
-5
5
15
25
Asian refinery margins will continue to be supported by firm middle distillate crack
UNL95-DB
GO-DB
FO-DB
Re : FO based on new conversion (6.35) 2013 GO-DB based on Gasoil 0.05%S
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
GO-DB Avg. 2013 19.00
UNL95-DB Avg. 2013 12.75
FO-DB Avg. 2013 -2.60
World Refinery Capacity and Demand
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92.15 92.15
93.94
96.60
98.32
100.01
101.62
+1.79
+2.66
+1.72
+1.69
+1.61 +0.75
89.0 89.8
90.6
91.8
93.2
94.5
95.7
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
101
103
105
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Additional capacity
Existing refinery capacity
Global Oil demand
MBD
World refinery run: 2011= 80.8% , 2012= 80.1%
Agenda
Oil Market Situation
3Q2012 Highlights
3Q2012 Financial Performance
What’s next in 4Q2012 and 2013
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Refinery & Marketing Performance
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Base GRM
GRM Hedging
MKM
Accounting GIM
Unit : USD/bbl
Inventory G/L
Total GRM
2Q2012 3Q2012 9MTH2012
4.85 14.03
7.43
2Q2012 3Q2012 9M2012
0.63 1.26
0.68
1 2 3
(8.26)
6.11
0.91
9.02 21.40 (2.78)
4.82 4.00 3.62
12.64 25.40 2.04
3Q2012 Refinery Highlights
Crude run 38.7 KBD
Crack spreads of main products increased YoY and QoQ
Reversed LCM of 1,061 MB
Satisfied Base GRM (including Hedging) at 15.29 $/bbl
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Local 67%
Far East 20%
Middle East 1%
Other 12%
Crude Selection
9%
9%
1%
Product Yield
100.99
70.79
38.70
70.16
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 9M2012
Crude Run LPG
GASOLINE
FO
JET
58%
22%
HSD
KBD
CDU no.3 Repairing Work
Incident Date: July 4 , 2012
Cause: Leakage of gas oil in idle column.
Repairing works:
Replaced 3 columns.
Refurbished Main Column.
Electrical, piping, steel structure, power
cable remove and install, insulation and scaffolding work.
Mechanical Completion: October 26, 2012
Crude charge: Nov 6, 2012
World-class consultants: Quest, Dupont, Foster Wheeler and
Toyo-Thai Corporation Public Company Limited.
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Cause of CDU no.3 Incident
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Crude Distillation Unit (3C-101)
Topping Unit Kerosene (3C-102)
Topping Unit Gasoil (3C-104A)
Topping Unit Diesel (3C-103)
Gasoil
To Quality Adjustment Unit
Gasoil From CDU
Inactive part
Topping Unit
Gasoil (3C-104A)
Oil vapor leaked
Micro leakage
(50 micrometer) Twice as small as hair
Cause: Oil Vapor Leakage
9 Steps To Raise Confidences
1. Inspected and Educated
by World-class Professionals
2. Consulted with Professionals
from DuPont for Safety Standard
3. Reviewed and Studied the
Probability of Potential Hazards
from Operation to Prevent Dangers
4. High-Standard Fire Engines Added
to Raise Capabilities of Risk Control
5. Increase Frequency of Practice to
Deal With Urgent Situations
6. Expand Gas Leakage Detection
Systems And Camera Surveillances
7. Intensively Educate Employees
at Plant
8. Increase the Installation of Online
Water and Air Quality Report LED
Signboards
9. Safety Communication
Educate neighbor communities from chemicals and fire incident.
Prepare and Publish Safety Handbooks.
Social & Community Communications
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Surrounding communities visited BCP refinery in Oct 2012.
Social & Community Communications
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Press visited BCP refinery on Nov 6, 2012.
3Q2012 Marketing Highlights
MKM (Excluding Lube) 0.40 B/L (2.2$/bbl)
Total Sales Volume 69.64 KBD (- 3.44% YoY) as a result of incident.
Sales volume through S/S increased by 5.4% YoY
E20 and E85 sales volume increased by 11.6% and 52.6% respectively (QoQ)
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Average Sales Volume through Marketing Channels (ML/MO)
Sales Vol. by product
202 226 208 236
149 148
132
175
351 374 340 411
3Q2011 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012F
19 20 18 21
173 207
165 224
68 51
62
60 88
93 91
102 3 4
4
3
3Q2011 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012F
44.8%
16.0%
14.6%
12.8%
6.4% 5.4%
45.5%
16.0%
13.9%
12.5%
6.0% 6.1%
3Q2012 Marketing Highlights
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Market share of sales volume through service stations
Other
3.0%YOY
Jan-Aug 2012
Other
2.6%YOY
All Product
Gasoline
3rd
2nd
11.5 12.88
14.37
3Q2011 2Q2012 3Q2012
11.6% QoQ
24.9% YoY
52.6% QoQ
317.5% YoY
E20&E85 Average Sales Volume (ML/MO)
0.57
1.56
2.38
3Q2011 2Q2012 3Q2012
Agenda
Oil Market Situation
3Q2012 Highlights
3Q2012 Financial Performance
What’s next in 4Q2012 and 2013
15 www.bangchak.co.th
Profit and Loss (Consolidated)
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Unit: MMTHB 2Q2012 3Q2012 9M2012
Sales Revenue 40,362 33,322 121,294
EBITDA (203) 2,208 5,719
Depreciation and Amortization (552) (620) (1,730)
Other FX and Impairment 115 7 358
Financial Cost (204) (270) (666)
Pre-tax Profit (845) 1,325 3,681
Tax 476 (250) (524)
Net Profit (369) 1,076 3,157
EPS (Baht/Share) (0.28) 0.78 2.27
3Q2012 Performance:
Operating performance
mostly resulted from the
incident of CDU no.3
(80KBD).
However, the performance
was supported by crack
spreads and a lower crude
run the company was able
to arrange and get best
economics yield and GRM.
Reported reversal of
allowance for loss from inventory write-down.
Profit and Loss (Company)
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Unit: MMTHB 2Q2012 3Q2012 9M2012
Sales revenue 39,620 32,727 119,286
EBITDA (261) 2,166 5,513
- Refinery Business (1,069) 1,831 3,820
- Marketing Business 701 187 1,438
- Solar Power Business 107 148 256
Depreciation & Amortization (538) (619) (1,701)
Other FX and Impairment 115 7 358
Financial Cost (197) (263) (643)
Pre-tax Profit (881) 1,291 3,527
Tax 475 (243) (508)
Net Profit (407) 1,049 3,020
EPS (Baht/Share) (0.30) 0.76 2.19
Financial Position (Consolidated)
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4,021
27,273
3,350
26,959 29,879
16,582
15,142
31 Dec 2011
Cash & Equivalents
Other
Current Assets
Other Non-
Current Assets
PP&E
61,603
Inventory increased resulted from crude plan for restarting
plant after TAM in 2Q2012.
PPE increased, mostly from annual CAPEX while loss from
impairment of assets.
Short-term Debt slightly increased from P/N.
67,078
30 Sep 2012
Current +
other Liabilities
L/T Debt (Incl. due within 1 yr)
Total Equity
15,450
20,450
31,178
2,271
32,923
3,521
28,363
Current Ratio, time
Int. bearing D/E Ratio, time
1.78 1.83
2.15 2.15
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2009 2010 2011 9M2012
0.75 0.86
0.62 0.73
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
2009 2010 2011 9M2012
Unit: MMTHB
Refinery BU Performance
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2Q2012 3Q2012 9M2012
M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL
Base GRM 982 4.85 1,573 14.03 4,468 7.43
GRM Hedging 128 0.63 142 1.26 410 0.68
Inventory Gain/(Loss) (611) (3.02) (376) (3.35) 548 0.91
LCM (1,061) (5.24) 1,061 9.46 - -
Total GRM (562) (2.78) 2,401 21.4 5,425 9.02
Other Income 34 0.17 33 0.29 108 0.18
Operating Expenses (541) (2.64) (603) (5.38) (1,711) (2.84)
EBITDA (1,069) (5.22) 1,831 16.33 3,822 6.35
Adjusted EBITDA 603 2.95 1,145 10.21 3,275 5.44
Key factors:
Crude Run (KBD) 70.79 38.70 70.04
Exchange rate (฿/$) 31.43 31.50 31.35
DB ($/Bbl) 106.37 106.30 109.61
Company Only
Marketing BU Performance
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2Q2012 3Q2012 9M2012
M.Baht Baht/L M.Baht Baht/L M.Baht Baht/L
Net Retail Margin 767 1.13 371 0.59 1,683 0.85
Net Industrial Margin 210 0.47 78 0.20 499 0.36
Total MKM 977 0.87 448 0.44 2,182 0.65
Other Income 182 0.16 169 0.17 545 0.16
Operating Expenses (458) (0.41) (430) (0.42) (1,288) (0.38)
EBITDA 701 0.62 187 0.18 1,439 0.43
Sales volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo
o Retail 46.94 226.36 42.62 207.80 45.29 219.21
o Industrial 30.69 148.01 27.02 131.75 32.13 155.53
Total Sales volume 77.63 374.37 69.64 339.55 77.42 374.73
Company Only
Solar Power BU Performance
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Unit: MMTHB 2Q2012 3Q2012 9M2012
Revenue 40 153 193
Cost (0.26) (0.3) (1)
Gross profit 40 153 192
Other income 72 1 74
Operating Expense (5) (5) (10)
EBITDA 107 148 256
The whole phase 1 has started COD since July 16, 2012.
Major expenses are Depreciation and Financial Cost.
Phase 1
Bangchak Biofuel Performance
Sales volume decreased (QoQ) because of B4 mandate and
low season
B100 Gross margin increased by 30% YoY
Average capacity at 309,000 litres per day (85.83% of 360,000 Litres per day)
Increased Capacity to be 360,000 litres per day
(Started COD since July 2012)
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Unit: MMTHB 3Q2011 2Q2012 3Q2012
Sale 768 1,292 891
Gross Profit 36 65 49
EBITDA 52 71 19
Net Profit 30 51 12
Financial Ratio (Consolidated)
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Profitability Ratio 3Q2011 2Q2012 3Q2012
Liquidity Ratio
Current Ratio Times 2.15 2.42 2.15
AR Day Days 18.49 11.17 16.39
DSCR Times 1.54 3.06 1.53
Leverage Ratio
IBD/E Times 0.62 0.53 0.73
Interest Coverage Times 5.61 3.13 5.91
Valuation Ratio
Book Value per Share Baht 21.59 22.08 22.51
EPS Baht 0.44 (0.28) 0.78
EBITDA Margin % 3.77 (0.50) 6.63
Return on Equity-ROE % 2.30 (1.28) 3.53
Return on Assets-ROA % 1.01 (0.61) 1.67
Agenda
Oil Market Situation
3Q2012 Highlights
Financial Performance
What’s next in 4Q2012 and 2013
24 www.bangchak.co.th
BCP with Sustainable Growth
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2012 Assumption: Crude run ≈ 80 KBD
2013
2016
Assumption:
Crude run ≈ 110 KBD
Assumption:
Crude run ≈ 120 KBD
• Expand nameplate capacity to 140 KBSD
• Sales volume through MK channel: 100 KBD
• Solar 170 MW installed
EBITDA, MMTHB
(Excl. stock gain/loss)
Refinery Business
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• High-Innovation Refinery: Project (Energy, Efficiency & Environment)
New CCR (Continuous Catalytic Regeneration): 12 KBD
Co-Generation Power Plant: 15 MW
New CDU: 80 100 KBD
• To reach capacity of 140 KBSD (Average crude run 120 KBD)
• To enhance GRM ≈ 2-2.5 $/bbl
• Repairing process of CDU#3 has been
completed since Oct 2012.
• Target Crude Run 90 KBD
• Target Base GRM 8 $/bbl
4Q2012
2013 onwards…
2013 • Starting 3E+ project
• No TAM
• Target Crude Run 110 KBD
• Target Base GRM 7 $/bbl
Marketing Business
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Expected Average Sales Volume: 411 ML/MO
(86 KBD)
Expected Marketing Margin: 0.54 Baht/litre
Mini BIGC 10 branches
4Q2012
2013 onwards Expected Average Sales Volume:
420 ML/MO (88 KBD) in 2013 to match
production at 100 KBD within 2015
Rebranding Service Stations 120
branches in 2013
Expanding New Service Stations with
Green Service Stations Concepts
Mini BigC 100 branches in 2013,
to reach 220 branches within 2015
Launching New E20 Euro V
Service
stations Sep 2012 Y2012
Y2013
(Target)
E20 514 600 700
E85 48 50 100
GREEN PARK STATION
Chatuchot
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Rebranding Co-op Service Stations
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Solar Power Business
www.bangchak.co.th 30
Unit: MMTHB 2012F 2013F
Phase 1 (44 MW)
≈ 400 ≈ 745
Phase 2 (50 MW)
- ≈ 700
Forecasted EBITDA
• Located in Bamnet Narong
Chaiyaphum Province.
• Expected COD in Jan 2013. 25 MW
Phase 2 (Installed 50 MW)
• Located at Bang Pa Han,
Ayudhaya.
• Expected COD in Feb 2013. 25 MW
Phase 3 (Installed 75 MW)
• Located in Prachinburi.
• Expected COD in Dec 2013. 25 MW
• Located in north eastern
part of Thailand.
• Expected COD in 2014.
50 MW
Solar Power Business
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Phase 2: 25 MW installed
Bamnet Narong, Chaiyaphum
Solar Power Business
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Phase 2: 25 MW installed
Bang Pa Han, Ayudhaya
Biofuel Business
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Current Capacity: 360,000 litre/day
Expanding capacity: 300,000 litre/day,
totally 660,000 litre/day
Expected EBITDA in 2013: 140 MMTHB
Expected EBITDA in 2015: 260 MMTHB
Biodiesel/B100 plant (BBF)
Ethanol Plant (UBE)
Feed: cassava, cassava chips and molasses
Expected COD: Feb 2013
Expected EBITDA in 2013: 40 MMTHB
CAPEX
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Unit: MMTHB Y2013
Normal CAPEX 1,000
Network Expansion 1,000
Solar Phase #2, #3 4,000
3E+ Project -
BBF Expansion -
Total 6,000
Y2014 - 2016
3,000
3,000
5,500
6,000
800
18,300
Funding by: • Cash Flow from Operation • Bond Issuance
ANALYST MEETING 3Q2012