Post on 05-Jan-2016
transcript
Annual Change in House Prices
Source: Land Registry
Prices are now falling very fast
More to come
Plus…
Loss of new build premium
New home prices down by 20-40%
Source: Nationwide, Halifax
with a big hit to turnover – particularly take up of new homes
most notably amongst
• investors• first time buyers
Source: HBF, Bank of England
Fastest falls are in the South of England
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
Scotla
ndNor
th
N.Wes
t
Wale
s
E.Mids
W.M
ids
Lond
onY&H UK
S.Eas
t
S.Wes
t
E.Ang
lia
Pric
e G
row
th
Change in last year Change from peak
Source: Nationwide to Sep 08
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q41998
Q41999
Q42000
Q42001
Q42002
Q42003
Q42004
Q42005
Q42006
Q42007
Q42008
% N
et B
alan
ce
Rental growth New rental instructions Tenant demand
Source: RICS
Underlying demand is still there
But…Higher supply is leading to rental weakness
From Recession to recovery: a local dimension. (November 2008)
•LGA and PACEC
•Functional Economic Areas
•High levels of economic self containment
•Distribution of 1.7m fewer jobs?
•London is the region most likely to underperform the national average in a recession
•City job losses and bonuses?
From Recession to recovery: a local dimension. (November 2008)
Issues for discussion…
•Commuting patterns in the sub-region
•Relationship of housing supply, tenure and the nature of employment
•Economic regeneration across the sub region.
•The role of the sub region in supporting the wider London Economy
•How can housing and economic development be planned to improve sustainability
•The trajectory of the local economy and the impact of the recession in terms of job losses and reduced incomes
•The potential for Local Housing Strategies and Local Development Frameworks to support economic development and the labour supply