Post on 16-Jan-2016
transcript
APDU Annual Conference
Unemployment Insurance Data
September 25, 2009 Ron Wilus
Washington, D.C. U.S. Department of Labor
wilus.ronald@dol.gov
Unemployment Insurance Program
Authorized by Social Security Act in 1935. Provides temporary income support to
workers unemployed through no fault of their own.
Broad coverage - 96% -- 97% of all wage and salary workers in U.S.
Unemployment Insurance Program
UI Program is automatic economic stabilizer Multiplier Effect $2.15 Without UI GDP would decline an additional 15% on
average during recessions
Federal-state cooperative partnership Based on federal law Administered by states under state law
Program ScopeFY 2008 FY 2009 Actual Projected
Number of workers covered ......................................... 133.7 M 129.6 M Number of beneficiaries ............................................... 8.8 M 15.5 M Average weekly insured unemployed .......................... 3.0 M 5.6 M Average weekly benefit amount .................................. $ 285.28 $ 313.50 Benefits paid (all programs) ........................................ $ 43.1 B $ 119.4 B Percent exhausting benefits ........................................ 39.1% 51.1% Employers Subject to UI law ....................................... 7.68 M 7.69 M State Administrative costs (including ES,BLS,VETS) .. $ 3.92 B $ 5.33 B - UI Administration only................................... $2.66 B $ 4.18 B Payroll taxes State Revenue................................................... $ 32.2 B $ 32.7 B
Federal (FUTA) Revenue.................................. $ 7.2 B $ 6.73 B Trust Funds (end of FY balance)
State Accounts (excluding loans)................................ $ 36.8 B $ -1.7 B
Some Current UI Data Dynamics
Initial Claims and Weeks Claimed (SA)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan-
75Ja
n-76
Jan-
77Ja
n-78
Jan-
79Ja
n-80
Jan-
81Ja
n-82
Jan-
83Ja
n-84
Jan-
85Ja
n-86
Jan-
87Ja
n-88
Jan-
89Ja
n-90
Jan-
91Ja
n-92
Jan-
93Ja
n-94
Jan-
95Ja
n-96
Jan-
97Ja
n-98
Jan-
99Ja
n-00
Jan-
01Ja
n-02
Jan-
03Ja
n-04
Jan-
05Ja
n-06
Jan-
07Ja
n-08
Jan-
09
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
Last Data point for August 29, 2009
IC (Left)
WC (Right)
Weekly Totals - Not Seasonally Adjusted
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
O N D J F M A M J J A S
Th
ou
san
ds
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Th
ou
sand
s
Weekly Totals - Seasonally Adjusted
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
O N D J F M A M J J A S
Th
ou
san
ds
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900T
ho
usan
ds
FY 2008
FY 2009
STATE INITIAL CLAIMSFISCAL YEAR 2008 AND 2009
Page 5A
Non-seasonally Adjusted Initial and Continuing ClaimsRegular State Program
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
1/1/08 3/1/08 5/1/08 7/1/08 9/1/08 11/1/08 1/1/09 3/1/09 5/1/09 7/1/09 9/1/09 11/1/09
Init
ial
Cla
ims
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
Co
nti
nu
ing
Cla
ims
NSA Initial Claims
NSA Continuing Claims
Weekly Continuing Claims Among Tiers of Benefits
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
6/1/2008
6/15/2008
6/29/2008
7/13/2008
7/27/2008
8/10/2008
8/24/2008
9/7/2008
9/21/2008
10/5/2008
10/19
/2008
11/2/2008
11/16
/2008
11/30
/2008
12/14
/2008
12/28
/2008
1/11/2009
1/25/2009
2/8/2009
2/22/2009
3/8/2009
3/22/2009
4/5/2009
4/19/2009
5/3/2009
5/17/2009
5/31/2009
6/14/2009
6/28/2009
7/12/2009
7/26/2009
8/9/2009
8/23/2009
9/6/2009
9/20/2009
10/4/2009
Regular program
UCFE
UCX
EUC Tier 1
EUC Tier 2
Extended Benefits
Potential Weeks of Unemployment Insurance Benefits
As of August 19, 2009
46Iowa46
Nebraska
46North Dakota
46
South Dakota
46
Utah
46Wyoming
59Hawaii
59Louisiana
59Maryland
59Mississippi
59
Montana
59Oklahoma
59Virgin Islands
72
Arkansas
72
Colorado
72Connecticut
72
Kansas
72New Hampshire
72
New Mexico
72Puerto Rico
72
South Carolina
72Texas
72
Vermont
72Virginia
79Alabama
79
Alaska
79Arizona
79California
79Delaware
79
District of Columbia
79
Florida
79
Georgia
79Idaho
79
Illinois
79Indiana
79Kentucky
79Maine
79
Massachusetts
79
Michigan
79Minnesota
79
Missouri
79Nevada
79New Jersey
79New York
79
North Carolina
79
Ohio
79Oregon
79Pennsylvania
79Rhode Island
79Tennessee
79
Washington
79West Virginia
79Wisconsin
Potential Weeks46
597279
All Programs Continuing ClaimsCounts include Regular, UCFE, UCX, EUC Tiers I & II and EB Claims
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
100000003/
1/20
08
4/1/
2008
5/1/
2008
6/1/
2008
7/1/
2008
8/1/
2008
9/1/
2008
10/1
/200
8
11/1
/200
8
12/1
/200
8
1/1/
2009
2/1/
2009
3/1/
2009
4/1/
2009
5/1/
2009
6/1/
2009
7/1/
2009
8/1/
2009
Initial Claims and Duration
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Jan-
71Ja
n-72
Jan-
73Ja
n-74
Jan-
75Ja
n-76
Jan-
77Ja
n-78
Jan-
79Ja
n-80
Jan-
81Ja
n-82
Jan-
83Ja
n-84
Jan-
85Ja
n-86
Jan-
87Ja
n-88
Jan-
89Ja
n-90
Jan-
91Ja
n-92
Jan-
93Ja
n-94
Jan-
95Ja
n-96
Jan-
97Ja
n-98
Jan-
99Ja
n-00
Jan-
01Ja
n-02
Jan-
03Ja
n-04
Jan-
05Ja
n-06
Jan-
07Ja
n-08
Jan-
09
0.002.00
4.006.00
8.0010.00
12.0014.00
16.0018.00
20.00
IC (L)
Duration (R)
Last data point for August 2009
Initial Claims and Exhaustions
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Jan-
71Ja
n-72
Jan-
73Ja
n-74
Jan-
75Ja
n-76
Jan-
77Ja
n-78
Jan-
79Ja
n-80
Jan-
81Ja
n-82
Jan-
83Ja
n-84
Jan-
85Ja
n-86
Jan-
87Ja
n-88
Jan-
89Ja
n-90
Jan-
91Ja
n-92
Jan-
93Ja
n-94
Jan-
95Ja
n-96
Jan-
97Ja
n-98
Jan-
99Ja
n-00
Jan-
01Ja
n-02
Jan-
03Ja
n-04
Jan-
05Ja
n-06
Jan-
07Ja
n-08
Jan-
09
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
IC (L)
Exhaustions (R)
Last data point for August 2009
IC 12 Month % Change August 2008 to August 2009
12.15
AK
17.22
PR
19.84RI
23.44
DE
24.43VT
24.64
NJ
28.51
MA
29.58
CA
30.62NY
31.38CT
32.52
MS
32.72
PA
33.98
MO
34.17
MI
35.59
VI
36.51
IN
36.61
MD
36.61
AR
36.63IL 36.66
WV
37.05NE
37.68SC
37.68
OR
37.86WA
37.88
ME
38.22
KY
38.80
WI
39.38FL
39.62
MN
39.90
ID
39.93
NV
40.29
DC
40.58
HI
40.68OH
41.27NM
41.36MT
42.58
AZ
43.08
NC
43.20
ND
43.81
NH
44.68GA
44.95
VA
45.41
TX
45.48AL
45.58
IA
46.04
LA
46.59
SD
47.17
TN
49.00
CO
50.16UT
52.16
OK
52.41
KS
52.92WY
0.00 to 34.1734.17 to 38.80
38.80 to 43.8143.81 to 53.92
WC 12 Month % Change August 2008 to August 2009
14.70
AK
25.28
PR
30.25RI
34.17
MA
36.29
NJ
38.10
CA
38.58
VI
40.13
DC
40.57
DE
40.73
AR
41.52
PA
41.61
MI
41.89VT
41.98NY
42.21CT
42.94NE
43.78
WV
43.86IL
43.99
MN
44.39
MD
44.91
MO
45.28
WI
45.53
ME
46.06FL
46.55
IA
46.94
MS
48.05
ND
48.35OH
48.94SC
50.32
IN
50.36
OR
50.62NM
50.69
LA
50.70
KY
50.84GA
51.07
ID
51.08MT
51.24
VA
51.41
HI
52.14
NC52.32
TN
52.60
NV
53.21WA
53.52AL
54.36
TX
55.40
AZ
55.74
KS
56.95
OK
57.14
CO
57.70
NH
59.27
SD
63.09UT
63.35WY
0.00 to 41.9841.98 to 48.05
48.05 to 52.1452.14 to 64.35
State IURs
1.1
South Dakota
1.4
North Dakota
1.7District of Columbia
2.0
Nebraska
2.2Virginia
2.5New Hampshire
2.6Wyoming
2.7
Texas
2.7
Utah
2.8Maine
2.8Oklahoma
3.0Colorado
3.0Iowa
3.2
Tennessee
3.3Louisiana
3.3Minnesota
3.3Virgin Islands
3.4
Delaware
3.4Maryland
3.4Vermont
3.5Hawaii
3.5
New Mexico
3.6Indiana
3.6Kansas
3.6
Missouri
3.6
Montana
3.6
West Virginia
3.7Alabama
3.7
Kentucky
3.8Idaho
3.8Mississippi
3.8
Ohio
3.9Alaska 4.0
Florida
4.1Georgia
4.1New York
4.3Arizona
4.4Massachusetts
4.5
Illinois
4.5Washington
4.6
Arkansas 4.6
South Carolina
4.8North Carolina
4.8Rhode Island
5.0
California
5.0
Wisconsin
5.1
Connecticut 5.1
New Jersey
5.2
Michigan
5.5Nevada
5.7Oregon
5.7Pennsylvania
6.8Puerto Rico
0.0 to 3.23.2 to 4.24.2 to 5.25.2 to 7.8
Benefits as a % of Personal Income(12 months ending 1st quarter 2009)
0.11South Dakota
0.16Louisiana
0.18
Nebraska
0.19Oklahoma
0.19
Virginia
0.22
Texas
0.25
North Dakota
0.26
Mississippi
0.26
Wyoming
0.26Colorado
0.26
Arizona
0.27
Alabama
0.28
New Hampshire
0.28Maryland
0.31
Florida
0.32West Virginia
0.32
New Mexico
0.34
Utah
0.35
Missouri
0.35Tennessee
0.36
New York
0.37Georgia
0.38Maine
0.38District of Columbia
0.39Kansas
0.39Alaska
0.40
Montana
0.43
Delaware
0.44
South Carolina
0.46
Arkansas
0.47
Connecticut
0.47Iowa
0.49
Washington
0.49
Ohio
0.50Minnesota
0.51California
0.52
Illinois
0.52
Hawaii
0.53North Carolina
0.54Kentucky
0.56
Vermont
0.59
Indiana
0.59
Idaho
0.61
Massachusetts0.62Wisconsin
0.63New Jersey0.68
Nevada
0.69Pennsylvania
0.71
Rhode Island
0.77Oregon
0.78
Michigan
0.00 to 0.280.28 to 0.40
0.40 to 0.540.54 to 0.79
Railroad Continued Weeks Claimed
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Jan-
89
Jan-
90
Jan-
91
Jan-
92
Jan-
93
Jan-
94
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Jan-
03
Jan-
04
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Last Data P oint for August 2009
Publically Available Data Resources
Data Maps http://workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/dmstree/handbooks/
402/402_4/4024c6/4024c6_app_toc2.htm Metadata: documentation, definitions, instructions,
deadlines, etc. http://wdr.doleta.gov/directives/ETA_Handbook.cfm Internal Web Site for data entry, tracking and
maintenance http://www.uis.doleta.gov:8080/OWSMenu/index.jsp
Publically Available Data Resources OWS Data Access Program and Financial data: (source, frequency of collection, type of access) Handbook 394: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/hb394.asp (annual / query driven) UI data Summary: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/content/data.asp (quarterly / static) Commonly requested: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claimssum.asp (monthly / query driven) Weekly Claims Data: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims_arch.asp (weekly / query driven) Claimant Characteristics: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/chariu.asp (monthly / query driven) Chartbook: http://www.doleta.gov/unemploy/chartbook.cfm (annual / query driven) Third Tier Benefit Programs (EUC08): http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/euc.asp (monthly / static) ARRA funded program activity: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/pdf/euc/arra/cumulative.asp Disaster Unemployment Assistance: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/duaactions.asp WPRS: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/profile.asp (quarterly / query driven) Trust Fund Loans: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/budget.asp#tfloans (daily) Budget Information: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/budget.asp
Publically Available Data Resources
OWS performance: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/performance.asp
GPRS goals: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/gpra.asp BAM: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/bqc.asp UI Tax Information: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/tax.asp UI Legislation UI background:
http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/pdf/partnership2007.pdf Legislative resources: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/laws.asp State laws: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/statelaws.asp#Statelaw
Publically Available Data Resources
Selected Workforce links Service locator: http://www.servicelocator.org/ Apprenticeship statistics:
http://www.doleta.gov/OA/statistics.cfm Trade Adjustment statistics:
http://www.doleta.gov/tradeact/taa_stats.cfm CED Hot reports:
http://www.careeronestop.org/red/CEDHotReport.aspx