Post on 16-Jan-2015
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SECURITY DYNAMICS OF THE ARCTIC
Rear Admiral Nils WangRoyal Danish Defence College
PUBLIC PERCEPTION
210-04-2023
COVER
Arctic: Fight for the Top Of the World (Cover Story / The Well)
As global warming melts the Arctic ice, dreams of a short sea passage to Asia-and riches beneath the surface have been revived. With Russia planting a flag on the ocean floor at the North Pole, Canada talking tough and Washington wanting to be a player, who will win the world's new Great Game?
THE UNCLOS RULES
310-04-2023
BORDER LINES AND CLAIMS IN THE ARCTIC
Source:
Durham University
UNDISCOVERED OIL AND GAS
610-04-2023
Figure 1: CARA Assessment of "Mean Estimated Undiscovered Oil" in Arctic CircleSource: "Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic," Gautier et al., Science, May 2009.
Figure 2: CARA Assessment of "Mean Estimated Undiscovered Gas" in Arctic CircleSource: "Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic," Gautier et al., Science, May 2009.
97% INSIDE EEZs
Ice extension – as of February
Ice extension – as of February
NEW SHIPPING ROUTES
The Ilulissat Declaration:
• Cooperation and Dialog
• Common Arctic Responsibility
• Disputes => International rules
”THE ARCTIC FIVE”
MAY 2008
THE ARCTIC CONTEXT
”The Arctic Council should not deal with matters related to military security”.
Footnote from the Ottawa Declaration 1996
NORWAY
910-04-2023
The treaty on maritime delimitation between Norway and Russia 2011
Strategy for the High North
(2006)
UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 1996
RUSSIA
1010-04-2023
The treaty on maritime delimitation between Norway and Russia 2011
UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 1997
Arctic Strategy (2008)
National Interestsa) Strategic ressource baseb) Peace and cooperationc) Conservation of eco-systemsd) Use Northern Sea Route as national transportation system
AP: Russia plans to establish an Arctic brigade on the border to Norway already in 2011.Photo: Trude Pettersen
AUG 2010
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
1110-04-2023
UNCLOS RATIFICATION: ?
National Security Presidential Directive and Homeland Security Presidential Directive
It is the Arctic Policy of the United States to:
• Meet national security and homeland security ;
• Protect the Arctic environment;• Ensure sustainability
January 9, 2009
CANADA
1210-04-2023
UNCLOS RATIFICATION: 2003
Hans Island
?
KINGDOM OF DENMARK
1310-04-2023
UNCLOS RATTIFICATION: 2004
31 billion barrels
17 billion barrels
Kuupik:Grundlover ikkeløsrivelse
K. O. Berthelsen Li Keqiang
1410-04-2023
REE OUTSIDE CHINA
1510-04-2023
THE GLOBAL NEED FOR RESSOURCES
CONCLUSIONS
OPERATIONAL COOPERATION
REGULATION OF RESSOURCES
ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSE CAPABILITY
STABILISING FACTORS
• ECONOMICICAL INTERESTS• ILULISSAT DECLARATION• ARCTIC COUNSIL• NORTH ATLANTIC COAST GUARD FORUM
PREVENTION OF ACCIDENTS
RISK FACTORS
• AMBIGUOUS COMMUNICATION• SUPPRESSION OF SECURITY DIALOGUE• ENVIRONMENTAL DISASASTER• ECO ACTIVISM/TERRORISM• ”COD WARS”• NATO/EU/CHINA/?• GREENLANDIC ”BREAK AWAY”?
THE JOKER
FUTURE US-CHINA RELATIONS