Post on 12-Jul-2020
transcript
12/16/2013
1
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Are We Drowning in Data?
Which Metrics Should I Monitor?
Randall Greenfield
2013 Vita Plus Dairy Summit
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
12/16/2013
2
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
70 Data Points/Lacta on →7,000 Data Points/Lactation
DHM, 9/30
12/16/2013
3
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Drowning in Data?
• More Sophisticated Real-Time Cow Data Every Day
– Daily Milk Weights
– Conductivity
– Milk Components
– Pedometers
– Activity
– Rumination Time
– Components
– Dry Matter Intakes
– Milking Times/Flows
– Rumen pH
– Body Temperature
– Genomic Scores
– Body Weights
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Drowning in Data?
• “You should know your”:– DMI, FE, IOFC
– DIM, VWP, HDR, CR, PR
– FCM, ECM, MCM, MLM, ME
– TOR, DR, DOA
– ROA, ROE, EBITDA
12/16/2013
4
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Topics
• Feed Costs
• Reproduction
• Animal Flow
• Production
• $$Profitability
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Feeding
• Costs are almost impossible to compare across herds– Forage source/quality
– Cost or Market Value?
– All diets included (calves, heifers, dry cows?)
– Feed Markets/Contracts
– Wet byproducts
• Accrual, Enterprise Accounting– ‘Dairy’ buys feed from ‘Farm’
12/16/2013
5
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Feeding
• Total Feed Costs– Per head; Per cwt
• Purchased Feed Costs
• Milk to Feed Ratio
• Feed Efficiency
• Income Over Feed Costs
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Feeding• Simple measure of feed
costs per head (total or purchased)– No production information
– A constantly moving target
• Feed costs per cwt are better, but cost only– No value of production
(components)
12/16/2013
6
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Feeding
• Dairy Feed Efficiency– Lb milk/lb DMI
– Great idea
– Crude measure
– No $$ sensitivity
– Not easy to manipulate
12/16/2013
7
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Feeding
• Income Over Feed Costs– Probably the best
measure we have
– Need to use accurate feed costs
– Need to use a relatively stable milk price
• 12-mo average price built with components?
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Feeding
• A few examples– Fat = $1.66/lb
– Prot = $3.282/lb
– OS = 5.8%; $0.411/lb
12/16/2013
8
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
FeedingA B
Lb Milk 90 85
Fat% 3.50% 3.80%
Prot% 3.00% 3.20%
Feed Cost, $/hd $6.50 $6.50
Feed Cost, $/cwt $7.22 $7.65
IOFC, $/hd $9.74 $9.82
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
FeedingA B
Lb Milk 88 90
Fat% 3.80% 3.80%
Prot% 3.20% 3.20%
Feed Cost, $/hd $6.50 $6.65
Feed Cost, $/cwt $7.39 $7.39
IOFC, $/hd $11.81 $11.81
12/16/2013
9
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
FeedingA B
Lb Milk 82 92
Fat% 3.80% 3.60%
Prot% 3.20% 3.10%
Feed Cost, $/hd $6.65 $6.80
Feed Cost, $/cwt $8.11 $7.39
IOFC, $/hd $11.08 $11.14
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Feeding
• IOFC probably the best measure
• Keep a history of your farm’s numbers
• Difficult to compare across farms
• Home-grown feeds are
difficult – cost vs. value
12/16/2013
10
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Reproduction
• Why do you want to get your cows/hfrs pregnant?– Improve herd genetics?
– Provide replacements for culled cattle?
– Lower or keep DIM low (more milk)?
– Grow herd size?
– Sell Breeding Stock?
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Reproduction
• Heat Detection Rate, Service Rate, Submission Rate, Insemination Intensity
• Conception Rate
• Voluntary Waiting Period
• Pregnancy Rate
• Calving Interval
• DIM, Days Open
12/16/2013
11
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Reproduction
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Reproduction
12/16/2013
12
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Reproduction
• Service Rate = 2922/4758 = 61%
• Preg Rate = 1029/4637 = 22%
• What about Aborts?– Can be wide differences between farms
– Preg Check frequency; Preg Check timing; Actual Abortion Rate
• Abortion Rate = 118/1029 = 11%
• Effective Preg Rate = (1029-118)/4637 =20%
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Reproduction
Conception Rate = 1301/(1301+2125) = 38%
12/16/2013
13
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Reproduction
• Preg Rate = ultimate measure of repro efficiency
• More important for non-bST herds to be efficient– Late lactation pregnancies = no milk
• Herds with poor PR may still be generating adequate replacement rates if not growing– Preg Inventory an important metric
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Reproduction
12/16/2013
14
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Reproduction
• Herds with excellent PRs (and/or sexed semen?) need a plan to profit from extra replacements– Milk all of them? What if 60% 1st Lact?
– Sell springers?
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Dairy A – No Sexed Semen
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
SS Births
Survival
Rep Rate
% Lact1
Herd Size
12/16/2013
15
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Dairy B – Sexed Semen
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
SS Births
Survival
Rep Rate
% Lact1
Herd Size
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Animal Flow
• Cull Rate; Turnover Rate
• Number of cattle that left the herd divided by the avgcattle present in the same period of time
• Turnover Rate vs. Replacement Rate– Buying animals to maintain
herd size = problem
12/16/2013
16
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Animal Flow
• Voluntary or Involuntary?– Most important
distinctions are Sold or Dead ; ‘Dairy’ or not
– By Parity (Lact=1)
• 12-month Rolling –removes seasonality
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
12/16/2013
17
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Production
• Testday milk production
• RHA
• Bulk tank average
• Fat%
• Prot%
• FCM; ECM; MCM™?
• Follow the $$...
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Production
• Milk Check Graphic
12/16/2013
18
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Production – October, 2013
• Fluid $/cwt $– OS $0.39 $34,888
– Volume $1.00 $15,783
– PPD $0.33 $5,208
– Quality $0.34 $5,366
– SCC/Prot (½) $0.06 $995
– Total $3.94 $62,241
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Production – October, 2013
$/cwt $– Fluid (total) $3.94 $62,241
– Butterfat $6.24 $98,453
– Protein $10.90 $172,030
– TOTAL $21.08 $332,724
12/16/2013
19
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Production – October, 2013
$/cwt $– Fluid (total) $3.94 $62,241
– Butterfat $6.24 $98,453
– Protein $10.90 $172,030
– TOTAL $21.08 $332,724
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Production – October, 2013
$/cwt $– Fluid (total) $3.94 $62,241
– Butterfat $6.24 $98,453
– Protein $10.90 $172,030
– TOTAL $21.08 $332,724
12/16/2013
20
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Production – October, 2013
$/cwt $– Fluid (total) $3.94 $62,241
– Butterfat $6.24 $98,453
– Protein $10.90 $172,030
– TOTAL $21.08 $332,724
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Production – October, 2013
$/cwt %– Fluid (total) $3.94 18.7%
– Butterfat $6.24 29.6%
– Protein $10.90 51.7%
– TOTAL $21.08 100%
12/16/2013
21
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Production – July, 2013
$/cwt %– Fluid (total) $3.97 21.1%
– Butterfat $5.27 28.0%
– Protein $9.60 51.0%
– TOTAL $18.84 100%
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Production – March, 2010
Class III = $12.78 $/cwt %– Fluid (total) $2.84 19.4%
– Butterfat $5.27 36.1%
– Protein $6.50 44.5%
– TOTAL $14.61 100%
12/16/2013
22
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Monthly Share of Milk Check
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
12
/1/2
01
0
2/1
/20
11
4/1
/20
11
6/1
/20
11
8/1
/20
11
10
/1/2
01
1
12
/1/2
01
1
2/1
/20
12
4/1
/20
12
6/1
/20
12
8/1
/20
12
10
/1/2
01
2
12
/1/2
01
2
2/1
/20
13
4/1
/20
13
6/1
/20
13
8/1
/20
13
10
/1/2
01
3
F+P
Fluid
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
% of Recent Milk Check
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
A B C D E F
%Fluid
%F+P
12/16/2013
23
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Production
• In FMMO 30– ~20% of milk check from ‘fluid’
– ~80% of milk check fat + protein
• Our production metric should focus on lb fat + lb protein– FCM, ECM, SCM, MCM™, or CY?
– All per cow measures
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Production
• FCM = Fat Corrected Milk
• ECM = Energy Corrected Milk
• SCM = Solids Corrected Milk
• MCM™ = Money Corrected Milk
• CY = Cheese Yield
• All of these are in lb/cow
• Why Not Just lb fat + lb protein/cow?– Or per stall; per parlor stall, etc.
12/16/2013
24
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Profitability
• Cash Flow (Profit/Loss; Income Statement)– Current Year – Short
Term
– Net Income (black or red)
– Breakeven Milk Price• Account for Basis
• Class III
12/16/2013
25
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Profitability
• Cash Flow (Profit/Loss; Income Statement)– Operating Expenses as
% of Gross Income
– Enough left to pay debt?
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Profitability
• Balance Sheet– Long Term
– How much Debt?• Debt/cow
• Debt/cwt
• P&I Pmts/cwt
– Equity Position• How much of your assets do
you own vs. lender?
12/16/2013
26
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Profitability
• Balance Sheet– Net Worth or Equity
• Assets – Liabilities
• What’s left after selling everything?
• Conservative Asset Values
• Earned Equity vs Asset Appreciation
– Change in Net Worth• Year to year
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Profitability
• Cash Flow/Balance Sheet– Return on Assets
• Net Income/Assets
• Interest on a CD
12/16/2013
27
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Summary
• Unlimited sources and data metrics for your dairy
• Find some key ones for your business
• Most useful if you track them over time
Employee-Owned • TheSky is the Limit • Dairy Summit 2013
Questions?