ArtificialIntelligenceintheWorld

Prof.LevyFrommInstitute

SpringSession,2017

Lecture8agenda(1)

What’shappenedthisweekDeepLearningAutonomousVehiclesComputerGoEthics&legalissuesANNs&brainsOtherapplications

• ThefutureofAI• Whattoexpectworldwide• ImpactsofAIapplications• Hardware&softwareofAI• Neuro-interfaces/humaninteractions• “IntuitiveAI”tools

• Whattowatchoutfor

• Finalcomments

Lecture8agenda(2)

Whathappenedinthepastweek?(1)

•DeepLearning

• RockStarsofMachineLearning/DeepLearning• (seminarinSeptember,MountainView)

• “DeepLearningTakesonTranslation”– CACM

Whathappenedinthepastweek?(2)

• AutonomousVehicles• “Thefutureofartificialintelligenceandself-drivingcars”–StanfordEngineering• (summaryofaradioprogramtitled,“TheFutureofEverything”)• https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/this-darpa-video-targeting-ai-hype-is-necessary-viewing

•McKinsey– Self-drivingcartechnology– Whenwillthe

robotshittheroad?

• Computerchess&go

• NYTimes-- Google’sAlphaGo DefeatsChineseGoMasterinWinforA.I.• NYTimes- Google’sA.I.ProgramRattlesChineseGoMasterasItWinsMatch• AsmallconsolationforMr.Ke wasthatheplayedanear-perfectgameforthefirsthundredmoves• TwoGoprofessionals,eachteamedwithAlphaGo,arescheduledtoplayagainsteachotheronFriday.• “Afterthistime,AlphaGo tomeis100percentperfection,tomeAlphaGo isthegodoftheGogame,”hesaidafterthegameonThursday.

Whathappenedinthepastweek?(3)

• Ethics&legalissues• IEEEComputerMagazine-- StandardizingEthicalDesignforArtificialIntelligenceandAutonomousSystems–• ensureeverytechnologistiseducated,trained,andempoweredtoprioritizeethicalconsiderationsinthedesignanddevelopmentofautonomousandintelligentsystems.

• (BritishStandardBS8611:2016)Robotsandroboticdevices.Guidetotheethicaldesignandapplicationofrobots androboticsystems–• guidelinesfortheidentificationofpotentialethicalharm.Significantethicalhazardsarepresentedforvariousrobotapplications.

• Whenartificialintelligencebotchesyourmedicaldiagnosis,who’stoblame?

Whathappenedinthepastweek?(4)

• ANNsandbrains

• Asteptowardbuildingamorebrain-likecomputer-- StanfordEngineering(synapse)

• MITTechnologyReview– CuriositymaybevitalfortrulysmartAI(WillKnight)

Whathappenedinthepastweek?(5)

• OtherapplicationsofAI/robotics• SecurityChiefsandHackersRacetoBenefitfromAIPrize(forsecurity)

• (FinancialTimes)

• Note:“In2015,209,000Cyber-SecurityJobPositionsWentUnfilledintheUSAlone”

• Waltzingrobotteachesbeginnershowtodancelikeapro• (NewScientist)

Whathappenedinthepastweek?(6)

TheFutureofArtificialIntelligence

•Whattoexpectworldwide

• ImpactsofAIapplications

• HardwareandsoftwareofAI

•Neuro-interfaces/humaninteractions

• Designtools– “IntuitiveAI”

•Whattowatchoutfor

Thefuture-- Whattoexpectworldwide

• TheNewAIMarket– (O’Reilly)– top18companiesinvestinginAI

• TheStanford100-yearstudy– 2016report

• NationalAIR&DStrategicPlan

• 4WaysAIWillChangeAboutEverything(Salesforce)

• ImpactofAIonChina(McKinsey)

• AIBoom(Economist)

TheNewAIMarket(O’Reilly)

10.MITRE

11.Baidu

12.LinkedIn

13.Apple

14.Cylance

15.LockheedMartin

16.NASA

17.SentientCorporation

18.ElectronicArts

1.Google

2.Facebook

3.RocketFuel

4.IBM

5.Amazon

6.Yahoo

7.Intel

8.Microsoft

9.Deloitte

TheStanford100-yearstudy– 2016report

• ContrarytothemorefantasticpredictionsforAIinthepopularpress,theStudyPanelfoundnocauseforconcernthatAIisanimminentthreattohumankind.

• Instead,increasinglyusefulapplicationsofAI,withpotentiallyprofoundpositiveimpactsonoursocietyandeconomyarelikelytoemergebetweennowand2030Atthesametime,manyofthesedevelopmentswillspurdisruptionsinhowhumanlaborisaugmentedorreplacedbyAI,creatingnewchallengesfortheeconomyandsocietymorebroadly.

• Large-scalemachinelearningconcernsthedesignoflearningalgorithms,aswellasscalingexistingalgorithms,toworkwithextremelylargedatasets.

• Deeplearning,aclassoflearningprocedures,hasfacilitatedobjectrecognitioninimages,videolabeling,andactivityrecognition,andismakingsignificantinroadsintootherareasofperception,suchasaudio,speech,andnaturallanguageprocessing.

• Reinforcementlearningisaframeworkthatshiftsthefocusofmachinelearningfrompatternrecognitiontoexperience-drivensequentialdecision-making.ItpromisestocarryAIapplicationsforwardtowardtakingactionsintherealworld.

Stanford– currently“hot”areasofAIresearch

Stanford– currently“hot”areasofAIresearch(2)• Roboticsiscurrentlyconcernedwithhowtotrainarobottointeractwiththeworldarounditingeneralizableandpredictableways,howtofacilitatemanipulationofobjectsininteractiveenvironments,andhowtointeractwithpeople.

• Computervisioniscurrentlythemostprominentformofmachineperception.Ithasbeenthesub-areaofAImosttransformedbytheriseofdeeplearning.Forthefirsttime,computersareabletoperformsomevisiontasksbetterthanpeople.

• NaturalLanguageProcessing,oftencoupledwithautomaticspeechrecognition,isquicklybecomingacommodityforwidelyspokenlanguageswithlargedatasets.Researchisnowshiftingtodeveloprefinedandcapablesystemsthatareabletointeractwithpeoplethroughdialog,notjustreacttostylizedrequests.Greatstrideshavealsobeenmadeinmachinetranslationamongdifferentlanguages,withmorereal-timeperson-to-personexchangesonthenearhorizon.

• Collaborativesystemsresearchinvestigatesmodelsandalgorithmstohelpdevelopautonomoussystemsthatcanworkcollaborativelywithothersystemsandwithhumans.

Stanford– currently“hot”areasofAIresearch(3)• Crowdsourcingandhumancomputationresearchinvestigatesmethodstoaugmentcomputersystemsbymakingautomatedcallstohumanexpertisetosolveproblemsthatcomputersalonecannotsolvewell.

• AlgorithmicgametheoryandcomputationalsocialchoicedrawattentiontotheeconomicandsocialcomputingdimensionsofAI,suchashowsystemscanhandlepotentiallymisalignedincentives.• InternetofThings(IoT)researchisdevotedtotheideathatawidearrayofdevices,includingappliances,vehicles,buildings,andcameras,canbeinterconnectedtocollectandsharetheirabundantsensoryinformationtouseforintelligentpurposes.• Neuromorphiccomputingisasetoftechnologiesthatseektomimicbiologicalneuralnetworkstoimprovethehardwareefficiencyandrobustnessofcomputingsystems,oftenreplacinganolderemphasisonseparatemodulesforinput/output,instruction-processing,andmemory.

Stanfordstudy-- AIBYDOMAIN

• TRANSPORTATION• HOME/SERVICEROBOTS• HEALTHCARE• EDUCATION• LOW-RESOURCECOMMUNITIES• PUBLICSAFETYANDSECURITY• EMPLOYMENTANDWORKPLACE• ENTERTAINMENT

(U.S.)NationalAIR&DStrategicPlan

• In2015,theU.S.Government’sinvestmentinunclassifiedR&DinAI-relatedtechnologieswasapproximately$1.1billion.• Althoughtheseinvestmentshaveledtoimportantnewscienceandtechnologies,thereisopportunityforfurthercoordinationacrosstheFederalgovernmentsothattheseinvestmentscanachievetheirfullpotential.

• RecognizingthetransformativeeffectsofAI,inMay2016,theWhiteHouseOfficeofScienceandTechnologyPolicy(OSTP)announcedanewinteragencyworkinggrouptoexplorethebenefitsandrisksofAI.• OSTPalsoannouncedaseriesoffourworkshops,heldintheMay-July2016timeframe,aimedatspurringpublicdialogueonAI,andidentifyingthechallengesandopportunitiesitentails.

4WaysArtificialIntelligenceWillChangeJustAboutEverything-- Salesforce

• TheInternetofThings

• Data&Analytics

•MachineLearning

• Prediction

ImpactofAIonChina-- McKinseyreport

• Withitsbiggesttechcompaniesdrivingsignificantinvestmentsin

R&D,ChinaisoneoftheleadingglobalhubsofAIdevelopment.Its

advantagesincludeavastpopulationanddiverseindustrymixthat

havethepotentialtogeneratehugevolumesofdataandprovidean

enormousmarket.

• [p.8graphic– AIstartups,M&Adeals]

AIBoom(Economist)• Google,MicrosoftandIBMaremakingAIservicessuchasspeechrecognition,sentenceparsingandimageanalysisfreelyavailableonline,allowingstartupstocombinesuchbuildingblockstoformnewAIproductsandservices.• Morethan300companiesfromarangeofindustrieshavealreadybuiltAI-poweredappsusingIBM’sWatsonplatform,doingeverythingfromfilteringjobcandidatestopickingwines.

• http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21700756-artificial-intelligence-boom-based-old-idea-modern-twist-not

ImpactsofAIapplications

• Impactsofautonomousdriving

• Medicalapplications– diagnosis(TheMotleyFool,Apr,2017)

• FindingaVoice(Economistspecialreport)

• HowAIWillChangeEverything(Baidu)

Impactsofautonomousdriving

• Reducedaccidents• Increasedroadcapacity/decreasedroadcongestion• Decreasedparkingdemand

• Increaseinelectricitydemand/decreasedgasolineconsumption

• Changeinland-usepatterns• Universalsurveillance?

• http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-second-order-consequences

Medicalapplications– diagnosis• DoctorsattheUniversityofNorthCarolinaSchoolofMedicineprovidedWatson withtherecordsof1,000cancerpatients,anditwasabletoprovidetreatmentplansthatconcurredwithoncologists'actualrecommendationsin99%ofcases.• Additionally,Watsonwasabletoprovideadditionaloptionsmissedbyitshumancounterpartsin30%ofthecases,havingbeensuppliedwithallthelatestcancerresearch.• Thiswillprovideeffectivecancertreatmenttoawidervarietyofpatientsthaneverbefore,whilemakingeverydoctorwithaccesstoWatsonacancerexpert.

•• TheMotleyFool,Apr,2017

FindingaVoice• Machinescannotconductproperconversationswithhumansbecausetheydonotunderstandtheworld

• Themorethatmachinestalk,andthemorethattheyseemtounderstandpeople,themoretheiruserswillbetemptedtoattributehumantraitstothem.

• Thatraisesquestionsaboutwhatitmeanstobehuman.Languageiswidelyseenashumankind’smostdistinguishingtrait.AIresearchersinsistthattheirmachinesdonotthinklikepeople,butiftheycanlistenandtalklikehumans,whatdoesthatmakethem?

• Ashumansteachevermorecapablemachinestouselanguage,theonce-obviouslinebetweenthemwillblur.

• Economistspecialreport

HowAIWillChangeEverything• Artificialintelligenceisshapingupasthenextindustrialrevolution,poisedtorapidlyreinventbusiness,theglobaleconomyandhowpeopleworkandinteractwitheachother.• AndrewNg,chiefscientistatChineseinternetgiantBaiduInc.andco-founderofeducationstartupCoursera,

andNeilJacobstein,chairoftheartificialintelligenceandroboticsdepartmentatSiliconValleythinktankSingularityUniversity

• …Inafewyearseveryonewillbeusingspeechrecognition.Itwillfeelnatural.You’llsoonforgetwhatitwaslikebeforeyoucouldtalktocomputers.

• …ateamatImperialCollegeLondondevelopanAIthatcoulddiagnosepulmonaryhypertensionbetterthancardiologiststypicallydo.Cardiologistshaveabout60%accuracy.Thissystemdoes80%accuracy.

• inJanuaryofthisyear,… CMUdevelopedapokerplayercalledLibratus,whichbeatfouroftheworldchampionpokerplayers,andnotbyjustalittlebit.Theyplayed120,000handsofpoker,andLibratus endedupwith$1.77millioninpokerchips.

• [AIwillcausedisplacement]overthenext10to15yearsthatisreallysignificant.…weneedtomakeeducationaffordablebecausetherewillbenewjobs.

• WallStreetJournalinterviewwithAndrewNg&NeilJacobstein

HardwareandsoftwareofAI

• GoogledevelopsanewAIchip(“CloudTPU”)

• BasedonGoogle’sTensorFlowprogramminglanguage

• Fasterprocessing;fastertotrain(machinelearning)

• “CloudTPUpods”areclustersofthesenewTPUswithhigh-speeddata

connectionsà AI-firstdatacenters

• MITTechnologyReview

HardwareandsoftwareofAI(2)

Neuro-interfaces/humaninteractions

• Thisappknowshowyoufeel— fromthelookonyourface

• Whatifacomputercouldrecognizeyourfacialexpression,andreacttohow

youfeel?RanaelKaliouby seesbigpossibilitiesinmakingtechnology

emotionallyaware.

• TEDWomen2015

• https://www.ted.com/talks/rana_el_kaliouby_this_app_knows_how_you_feel_from_th

e_look_on_your_face?language=en

• ConsciousnessCloud…wouldgivetherobotsworkinginthefactory“real-timesharedaccesstothementalstateofallhumansintheworkplace.”

• ArizonaStateUniversity– Yochan Group

Neuro-interfaces/humaninteractions(2)

• Facebookisbuildingbrain-computerinterfaces• a brain- computerinterfacethatwillletyoutypewithjustyourmindwithoutinvasiveimplants

• collaboratingwithUCSanFrancisco,UCBerkeley,JohnsHopkinsMedicine,JohnsHopkinsUniversity’sAppliedPhysicsLaboratoryandWashingtonUniversitySchoolofMedicineinSt.Louis

• awayforhumanstohearthroughtheirskin• letyourskinmimicthecochleainyourearthattranslatessoundintospecificfrequenciesforyourbrain.Thistechnologycouldletdeafpeopleessentially“hear”bybypassingtheirears

• TechCrunch,April19,2017

Neuro-interfaces/humaninteractions(3)

• ARMWantstoPutItsChipsInsideYourBrain

• ARMwillpartnerwiththeUniversityofWashington’sCenterforSensorimotor

NeuralEngineeringtohelpresearcherstherebuildchipsthatsitinside

people’sskulls.

• Thegoal:tohelppeoplewhoaresufferingfrom paralysisbroughtaboutby,

say,strokeorspinalcordinjurytomovepartsoftheirbodyagain.

Neuro-interfaces/humaninteractions(3)

• Neuralink,juststartedbyElonMusk• “neurallace”,ascience-fictionalconceptinventedbyIainM.Banks,anovelist,thatis,inessence,amachineinterfacewovenintothebrain.

• Kernel• devicesforthetreatmentofneurologicalconditionssuchasstrokesandAlzheimer’sdisease

• (andthen)cognition-enhancingimplants

• aimedinitiallyatmedicalapplications,theyalsoexplicitlynodtothepossiblenon-medicalusesofthiskindofimplanttechnology

• (nooneunderstandsthemechanismbehindthenaturalequivalentofsoftware—thewaythebrainencodesinformation)

Neuro-interfaces/humaninteractions(4)

DesignTools– “IntuitiveAI”

• MauriceConti– GenerativeDesign

• https://www.ted.com/talks/maurice_conti_the_incredible_inventions_of_intuitive_ai

Whattowatchoutforinthefuture

•WillDemocracySurviveBigDataandArtificialIntelligence?• “Nudging”– encouragingustodo“therightthing”• Dangerofvote-nudgingbygovernments• “Whatcanwedonow?”• thebasicrightsofcitizensshouldbeprotected• Thereshouldalsobearighttogetacopyofpersonaldatacollectedaboutus;theunauthorised useofdatawouldhavetobepunishablebylaw• …

• fromSpektrum derWissenschaft,sister-publicationofScientificAmerican

WillDemocracySurviveBigDataandArtificialIntelligence?

FromMcKinseyreportonAIinChina

• Itisalsoanawesomeresponsibilitytomanagemachinesthatcanlearnandmakedecisionswithouthumandirection.… raisemanyethicalandlegalissues• …questionsaboutwhoownspersonaldata,howitmaybeshared,andhowitshouldbeprotectedfromtheincreasingriskofcybersecuritybreaches.• AImayunintentionallydiscriminate initsdecisionmaking• …manylegalimplications.WhenaccidentsandevencrimeshappenduetoAIdecisionmaking,whoisheldliable?• thepotentialforweaponizing AIisastrongconcern• StephenHawking,ElonMusk,andmorethan1,000AIandroboticsresearchershavesignedalettersuggestingabanonAIwarfare

YannLeCun (Facebook)onthefutureofAI

• Buildingintelligentmachinesisoneofthegreatestscientificchallengesofourtimes,anditwillrequirethesharingofideasacrosscountries,companies,labsandacademia.

• ProgressinAIislikelytobegradual—andopen.

“TheiBrain isHereandit’salreadyinsideyourphone”

• HowAIandMachineLearningworkatApple

• ArticlebyStevenLevy/Backchannel

• https://backchannel.com/an-exclusive-look-at-how-ai-and-machine-learning-

work-at-apple-8dbfb131932b

Onemorething…

Whatshallwetellourgrandchildrentostudy?

• GroundinginSTEMsubjects• Communicationskills– includingEnglishwriting&speaking• Empathy/collaboration/teamworkskills• Lifelonglearning

• “Themostimportantpredictorofateam’s success isitscommunicationpatterns.Thosepatternsareassignificantasallotherfactors—intelligence,personality,andtalent—combined.”[HBR]

Additionalrecommendedreading…

• TheMasterandHisEmissary:TheDividedBrainandtheMakingoftheWesternWorld• byIainMcGilchrist• Seehandout

ArtificialIntelligenceintheWorld

AccesstoAIWcoursematerials

• Includes•Handouts• Slides•Audiooflectures

• http://fromm.usfca.edu/course-materials.html