Post on 25-Feb-2016
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Ask Measure Learn
by Lutz Finger
Last update: March, 2014
The philosophy of the day is .
data-ism —DAVID BROOKS (@NYTDAVIDBROOKS)
We focus too much on technology
Google Search on the term “Big Data”
ASK the right Questions.
MEASURE the right data – even if it is not Big data.
Take Actions and LEARN from them.
Ask the right
Question
ASK
THE HARDEST PART
ASK
Let’s do “Social Media”
ASK
Source: IBM Institute for Business Value.
ASK
Please find an “INFLUENCER”
• Opinion leaders (Katz 1955)• Influentials (Merton 1968)• Law of the Few (Gladwell
2000)
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
ASK
A few person decide what we do…
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
ASK
REALLY?
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
ASK
Dear Marketers, There is no influencer.
It’s a myth.
ASK
Reality 50% is Homophily
Source: Kevin Lewisa, Marco Gonzaleza and Jason Kaufman (2012): PNAS Vol 109, no 1
• 4 years• 1001 Students on Facebook• traditional Self-reported Data• How did taste Spread
Influence is often overestimated. It needs:• Reach
• Readiness• Topic Dependence
ASK
Aja Dior M.? AP News?
ASK
Aja Dior M.omgg, my aunt tiffany who work for whitney houston just found whitney houston dead in the tub. such ashamed & sad :(
45 min
Aja Dior M.? AP News?
ASK
I want to create “REACH”
… in order to “SELL”
ASK
Measure the rightData
What is RIGHT?
MEA
SURE
Source: WIkipedia
even if it is not
Big Data
MEA
SURE
More Data
More Insightsdoes not equal
MEA
SURE
Data ELT and Aggregation
Petabyte Gigabyte BitTerabyte1 2 3 4
We want small data….
Yesor
No
MEA
SURE
Calculating Reach via Network Data
1977: Linton C. Freeman, “Centrality based on Betweenness .”
MEA
SURE
“REACH” creates awareness
“SELL”needs purchase intend
MEA
SURE
Correlations are important
MEA
SURE
What is your behavior?
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
MEA
SURE
The issue with the Correlation / Causation M
EASU
RE
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
Sometimes data is not easy to get.
MEA
SURE
Social Behavior is ‘unstructured’
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
MEA
SURE
It is way easier to work with ‘structured data’
New York Weather in April 2013
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
MEA
SURE
30
ME
AS
UR
E
Source: Jeffrey Breen
MEA
SURE
What is RIGHT?
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
MEA
SURE
Rightand learn from them.
Actions
Information vs. Action…
0 Connections59%
1 Connection28%
2 Connections5%
4 Connections3%
LEAR
N
Information vs. Action…
0 Connections59%
1 Connection28%
2 Connections5%
4 Connections3%
LEAR
N
Three Types of actionable Insights
Benchmark Predictions
Recommendations &Filter
LEAR
N
BENCHMARK
LEAR
N
Competitive Benchmark
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
LEAR
N
RECOMMEND & FILTER
LEAR
N
LinkedIn Recommendation Products
People You May Know
Groups You May Like
Ads You Be Interested in
Companies you May Want to Follow
Puls
Similar Profiles
LEAR
N
Filter
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
LEAR
N
PREDICTIONS
LEAR
N
Predicting the OSCAR 2013 LEAR
N
Predicting the OSCAR LEAR
N
Predicting the OSCAR
Source: Farsite
Possible other Features:
CROWDSOURCED:• Box Office Results• Movie Goer Reviews• Critics
OTHER “Hard Facts”• Genre• Payment of Actors• Etc.
LEAR
N
Predicting Box Office
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
LEAR
N
Predictions are not easy, especially if they are about the
Future.
LEAR
N
Which Model to use
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
LEAR
N
Which Model to use
Google’s Prediction API
LEAR
N
Many more examples…
Benchmark Recommendation & Filter Predict
LEAR
N
Data Wrangling & Data Science is getting Easier
LEAR
N
UpdateTraining
LEAR
N
Summary
ASK the right Questions.
MEASURE the right data – even if it is not Big data.
Take Actions and LEARN from them.
Thanks
LutzFinger.com