Post on 15-Jul-2020
transcript
Anthony Sturges; Chief Operating Officer
Joshua Hensley; Planning Coordinator
Aurora Public School District 2017-18 Planning Update: Blueprint
APS Intro Discussion
Division of Support Services October 10, 2017
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
Presentation Purpose Why is this topic on the board agenda?
Provide an overview of recent population, housing and enrollment trends in the APS community.
Provide preliminary enrollment projections through 2021-2022
What are we asking the board to do with this information? Review and understand this information that will inform a framework to
respond to current and future needs
How is this linked to the Strategic Plan, Vision, Mission, Goals & Core Beliefs? All students must have equitable access to learning opportunities,
technology, and environments that support them in reaching their full potential
A district with students at its center provides an adaptable and responsible foundation for learning
Community partnerships provide vital resources and opportunities for students and families
Students, families, staff, and community members share the responsibility for student achievement
Planning Update Overview:
-Population -Enrollment -Projections -Capacity
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
Source: US Census 2010; American Community Survey (ACS) 2016 1 Year Estimates
Sources: Metro: Colorado Department of Local Affairs
https://demography.dola.colorado.gov/ APS: Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment
• The Denver Metro Area grew by 277,805 people between 2010 and 2015
• Between 2010 and 2016 APS grew by 18,268 people
• In 2010, 60% of the metro area population increase came
from natural growth, in 2016 only 33% of the population increase came from natural growth
• Between 2010 and 2015 the average annual birth rate in the
Denver Metro Area and APS was 7% lower than the period between 2005 and 2010
Population
APS Population by Age Estimates (2010 to 2016)
Source: US Census 2010 & ACS 2016 1 Year Estimates -https://factfinder.census.gov/
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
0-5 and 6-17 based on estimates of population in households; all other age groups based on total population estimates
22,289
35,947
55,807
29,163
45,771
17,453 20,798
39,728
61,350
34,401
49,783
21,952
-7%
11% 10%
18%
9%
26%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0-5 6-17 18-34 35-44 45-64 65+2010 2016 % Change
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
Enrollment
*Preschool enrollment includes Non-APS Facility students
District P-12 Enrollment Breakdown by Type (2010-11 to 2017-18 IC: 9/28/2017)
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
School Year 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 IC: 9/28/17
Oct. Count 38,847 39,903 40,035 41,161 42,065 42,569 42,111 41,250
District P-12 Change
1,614 1,056 132 1,126 904 504 -458 -861 4.33% 2.72% 0.33% 2.81% 2.20% 1.20% -1.08% -2.04%
2010 to 2014 Total Change: 3,218
2010 to 2014 Average Annual Percent Change: 2.01%
2014 to 2017 Total Change: -815
2014 to 2017 Average Annual Percent Change: -0.64%
School Year 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 IC: 9/28/17
Oct. Count 31,588 32,151 32,887 33,956 34,604 34,534 33,864 32,370
Traditional K-12 Change
589 563 736 1,069 648 -70 -670 -1,494 1.90% 1.78% 2.29% 3.25 1.91% -0.20% -1.94% -4.41%
2010 to 2014 Total Change: 3,016
2010 to 2014 Average Annual Percent Change: 2.31%
2014 to 2017 Total Change: -2,234
2014 to 2017 Average Annual Percent Change: -2.18%
Traditional K-12 Enrollment Breakdown by Type (2010-11 to 2017-18 IC: 9/28/2017)
-2.50%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
IC:
9/2
8/2
017
201
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3
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1
*Enrollment includes : traditional, charter, and program students
APS K-12 Enrollment Percent Change (1970 to 2017 IC: 9/28/2017)
20
16
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
2010 to 2014 Change: 1,204 2014 to 2017 Change: -944
2010 to 2014 Change: 1,966 2014 to 2017 Change: 127
2010 to 2014 Change: 525 2014 to 2017 Change: -445
2010 to 2014 Change: 184 2014 to 2017 Change: -100
*Rent and vacancy data averaged together for Adams and Arapahoe county, and selected APS submarkets. Data for all apartment types. Source: "Denver Metro Area Apartment Vacancy and Rent Survey, Third Quarter 2016" published by Apartment Association Metro Denver
Source: US Census 2010; American Community Survey (ACS) 2016 1 Year Estimates
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
Source: Zillow Research- http://www.zillow.com/research/data/
Factors Impacting Recent Enrollment Trends 1) Lower birth rates have led to smaller class sizes in primary grades
-Decline in class sizes as cohorts progress to the next grade
2) Increasing housing costs continue to pressure families in the community
-Between 2012 and 2016 the median sale price of homes in Aurora increased from $165,000 to $267,900
-Between 2012 and 2016 the average rent in APS increased from $854.00 to $1,185.00
3) More public education choices available for APS families: charter schools, other school districts, online academies, etc.
-The percentage of students attending APS traditional schools has declined about 6% since 2012-13
80.9% 81.2% 80.1% 78.9% 77.3% 74.7%
8.6% 8.5% 8.4% 8.9% 9.3% 11.0%
2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.6% 3.2% 3.2% 2.2%
2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5%
0.6% 0.5%
1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 2.5% 4.9% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% 5.2% 5.3%
0.4% 0.6%
0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15* 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 ProjectedNon-APS Facilities Preschool Other Interdistrict Choice CSIP-12 Private and Home Based Education Multi-District Blended Learning Estimate Charter P-12APS P-12
1,112
APS Community School Enrollment Trends (2012-13 to 2017-18 )
44,497
48,090 47,166 48,279 45,609
Source: APS analysis of CDE data- Colorado Department of Education: http://www.cde.state.co.us/cdereval/pupilcurrent *Added 700 to inter dist. Choice to account for CDE error
1,557 924 189 -561
# = Annual Change
47,718
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
• Based on factors influencing current enrollment trends such as smaller class cohorts in primary grades, housing affordability, inter-district open enrollment and the pace of new residential development; APS may continue to experience enrollment declines over the next few years
• It is possible enrollment will stabilize and eventually begin increasing again within the next five years, primarily as a result of new housing growth along the E-470 corridor
Preliminary Enrollment Projections
32,887 33,956 34,604 34,534 33,864 32,370 31,069 30,208 29,688 29,441 29,350
1,648 1,340 1,468 1,617 1,618
1,675 1,675 1,675 1,675 1,675 1,675
3,820 3,839 3,937 4,278 4,399 5,027
5,326 5,670 5,946 6,203 6,485
1,680 2,026 2,056 2,140 2,230 2,178
2,178 2,178 2,178 2,178 2,178
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017:9/28/17
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Pre-K Enrollment Charter Enrollment Program Enrollment Traditional Enrollment
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
Actual and Preliminary Projected APS P-12 Enrollment by Type (2012-13 to 2021-22)
9/29/2017 Draft
40,035 41,161 42,065 42,569 42,111 41,250
40,248 39,731 39,487 39,497 39,688
Northwest: Enrollment may continue to decline, with redevelopment in Original Aurora
Northeast: Enrollment is likely to continue growing from ongoing residential development along E-470
Southwest: Enrollment is likely to continue declining in the short-term, with possible growth in the future as more families may be attracted back to the area
Southeast: Enrollment may stabilize, with possible growth in the near future from new residential development along E-470
Capacity
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
Discussion
Implications and Next Steps